The Golden State has 475 PD’s up for grabs on June 7th. Now before you say that the RCP average for California is Hillary +13.5 know these things:

1. The registration deadline for the June 7, 2016 presidential primary is May 23, 2016. California was Early on Super Tuesday in 08 folks didn't have a lot of time to get to know Obama.

2. 24% of registered voters in Cali are “no party preference” that number has grown 4.1% since 2008 while the number of registered Democrats has only grown .4%

3. “no party preference” can not vote in the Republican primary but can vote in the Democratic primary and in 2008-

Those who identified themselves as Democrats tended to choose Mrs. Clinton; "independents or something else" overwhelmingly voted for Mr. Obama 61-31. A majority of Californians who were surveyed said they made up their minds in the last month. The economy was ranked most often as the top issue facing the nation, followed by the war in Iraq and health care.

4. In ‘08 18% of the vote was from “npp” this year the number is likely to be higher. If Bernie wins these “no party preference” voters by 40 points assuming turn out is up 10% then he will have about 500k vote lead among “npp” voters. If Bernie can beat her by 6 points among Democrats then he would have about a725k vote margin of victory which would be about 13% victory.

5. Hillary beat Obama by 8% points in ‘08 and won the delegate count 204-166. This year there are 475 PD’s up for grabs as opposed to 370 in ‘08.

We need MattTX but it seems like it these number look reasonable.

An 8 point win by Bernie could be 263-212
A 13 point win by Bernie could be 285-190

It’s not over! Lets win this in Cali!
Go Bernie Go!