Proving What We Already Knew Department

CEO effect on firm performance mostly due to chance

A Texas A&M University researcher calls into question the common notion that CEOs have a large effect on firm performance. Though previous research contends that the so-called "CEO effect" is substantial, a study by Professor of Management Markus Fitza, whose research centers on firm performance, suggests that most of the performance attributed to CEOs could actually be due to chance -- to factors outside of CEOs' control.

Well no shit, Sherlock. Boing-Boing links the above (http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/10/151022192337.htm) as well as a Journal reference, the same as this one cited by this source:

Journal Reference:

Markus A. Fitza. The use of variance decomposition in the investigation of CEO effects: How large must the CEO effect be to rule out chance? Strategic Management Journal, 2014; 35 (12): 1839 DOI: 10.1002/smj.2192
Boing-Boing gives a link: The use of variance decomposition in the investigation of CEO effects: How large must the CEO effect be to rule out chance? - Fitza - 2013 - Strategic Management Journal - Wiley Online Library which presents an abstract and a demand for payment to see the full article.

Science Daily also links information provided by A&M: Research Indicates CEO Effect On Firm Performance Mostly Due To Chance

I would add some corollaries. These are based solely on observations over many, many years.

1) The larger the firm the more this is true.
2) CEO decisions having a substantial impact on performance will more often than not have a negative impact. Wrong decisions are frequently disastrous, while correct ones generally merely keep things going along as normal.

So tell me again why they get paid so much?

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LapsedLawyer's picture

Well, they can.

The rest of us? Who actually do the work? Not so much.

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"Our society is run by insane people for insane objectives. I think we're being run by maniacs for maniacal ends and I think I'm liable to be put away as insane for expressing that. That's what's insane about it."
-- John Lennon

lotlizard's picture

It's like Calvinball.

Other professions are all such a bore!
They gotta have rules and they gotta keep score!
CEO-ball is better by far!
It's never the same! It's always bizarre!
You never need a team or a referee!
You know that it's great, 'cause it's named after me!

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Unabashed Liberal's picture

exactly what my husband heard being discussed on CNBC--except that it came up on the Heritage Foundation website.

IOW, so far, I haven't found this blurb in an article describing a 'reform' such as this in the debt ceiling deal.

(And for a week or two, won't have time to resume searching.)

But, you can bet your 'Sweet Bippy' that I'm resume the search, as soon as we return. Heck, the only thing more major than this, would be if the "Old Age" Social Security benefits were 'reformed,' so that the monthly benefit was completely detached from earnings--becoming a flat stipend or rate.

Comprehensive Social Security Reform Needed.

Moreover, Congress would be wise to reform the Social Security retirement and disability programs together, as there are important interactions between the programs, and because they share certain features, including how benefits are earned and determined. Moreover, both programs are headed toward insolvency, albeit at different rates.

For both programs, Congress should:

Phase in a maximum flat benefit. To better protect Social Security beneficiaries from destitution, Congress should change the two programs’ needlessly complex benefit formulas by adopting a flat benefit above the federal poverty level for beneficiaries who are eligible for full disability and retirement benefits. A flat benefit would maintain the programs’ goal of protecting disabled and elderly workers from destitution while encouraging workers with higher incomes to seek out additional private disability insurance and retirement savings. The flat benefit should be about equivalent to the average benefit today, and be phased in over two decades. . . .

Now, what Mr M heard discussed was the SSDI program (only). The discussion was that it should become a flat stipend, at just above the FPL (Federal Poverty Level). I suppose for the same reason that this paper states--it would 'encourage' higher income workers to seek employment.

(Frankly, from the wording of several articles that I've read, I would not be in the least bit surprised but what this is a part of the 'deal.' IOW, a part that is not intended to become public, until the legislation has become law.)

For instance, one piece states:

Social Security

The deal takes care of an expected shortfall in Social Security payments to the disabled, which would impact the program’s more than 192,000 beneficiaries in South Carolina.

It prevents a 20 percent across-the-board benefits cut to recipients that is scheduled to happen early next year, partly by shifting money from the old age fund into the disability fund. . . .

“This means that disability gets another shot in the arm, and for somebody that is indeed disabled that could be viewed as a good thing, but at the end of the day we haven’t addressed the real solvency issue and we’re just digging ourselves in deeper by kicking the can down the road.”

The agreement would include long-term structural entitlement reforms to bolster the program’s solvency in the long term, the first substantial reform to Social Security in 30 years.

I could be wrong, but somehow--since a second opinion can already be required in some instances--I 'suspect' that reforms stronger than asking for a second doctor's opinion is included in the legislation that was just passed by the House. Otherwise, the statement, "the first substantial reform to Social Security in 30 years," would not make much sense.

We'll see. I sure hope that a flat rate benefit didn't make it into the legislation. Please, if anyone else sees anything on this, I'll be 'lurking,' and would appreciate it if you would post a link.

Thanks, Joe, for another excellent roundup.

Hey, have a nice evening, All!

Bye

Mollie


"Integrity and courage are powerful weapons. We have to learn how to use them. We have to stand up for what we believe in. And we have to accept the risks and even the ridicule that comes with this stance. We will not prevail any other way."

Chris Hedges, Journalist/Author/Activist, Truthdig, 9/20/2015

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