Polls have turned against Trump in a big way
Submitted by gjohnsit on Thu, 08/04/2016 - 6:14pm
But the polls have turned up for Stein and Johnson at the same time.
The two polls in question are:
McClatchy-Marist and NBC/WSJ.
When Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein are added to the mix, Clinton still retains a nine-point advantage over Trump: Clinton is at 43 percent, Trump at 34 percent, Johnson at ten percent and Stein at five percent.
We could be witnessing the implosion of the GOP this year.
The implosion of the Dems will have to wait for 2020.
Comments
I'm glad
that he appears to be down, but frankly I think that the polls value in all this are highly exaggerated, especially when they are run week by week. The way the questions are asked tends to encourage one position or another, and the really significant part of the campaign near the end hasn't even happened yet.
I'm not saying that he isn't down. He's had an awful weak. I'm saying this for now and all time. We should stop running to check polls every minute, and we should probably trust them a lot less than we do.
The press rather specifically uses them to get people's attention and keep them watching when they otherwise wouldn't.
I agree, martian.
Polls have this cloying feel of self-fulfilling prophecy to me. That's why I feel reporting on elections until ALL the voting is counted. None of this "with x% of the vote counted" and especially the state by state until all states are done voting.
And to be honest, the only poll that should matter is with how you vote.
There is no such thing as TMI. It can always be held in reserve for extortion.
Exit polls
Tragically, exit polls have become one way to monitor the honesty of official vote totals. When a candidate's totals are substantially higher than the results of exit polls it is cause for suspicion. When voting machines that generate reliable paper trails are consistent with exit polls and fully electronic machines that have no paper trails show a candidate with substantially more support than demonstrated in exit polls, it's very close to proof.
it doesn't matter
what the national polls are... what matters is where the swing state polls are
Trump is losing where he has to win
link
Trump is getting beaten in swing states too
This shouldn't surprise too many people
It's Johnson and Stein who could still shake things up.
Trump's window is closing.
Boo! Scary Trump is a talking point about to expire
What are the Hillariacs going to browbeat us with when Trump finishes collapsing like a jostled souffle? Without their Fear and Guilt greatest hits, why the fuck should anybody bother to hold their nose to vote for Hillary?
It's going to be fun watching them come up with a strained, pathetic answer to that question.
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With out their only talking point, they are going
to look like an empty vessel. I expect HRC's numbers will start going down also. Of course, being well under 50% at this point is not a good sign for her either.
We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence, then, is not an act, but a habit.--Aristotle
If there is no struggle there is no progress.--Frederick Douglass
Something tells me
the Republicans are going to run Ryan for president. He'll demolish Hillary.
I still hold out weak hope that all the lawsuits and objections to the Democratic primary will come through, or that Hillary will be indicted, but that is still unhappy if Kaine replaces her. To me he seems such a buffoon, almost visibly lathering without a clue as to how he will be treated by Hillary, Bill and history. The fix is in, people and it's going to take a lot more than protests not covered by the MSM to fix this.
Really, it's all business as usual unless Bernie or Jill or even the libertarian guy can somehow pull off a win. Yeah, right. I'm deeply depressed and wonder about the "Not in Our Name" people because it seems like the MOST I can do at this point is to assure fellow earth citizens that it is government and not the people who are perpetrating these horrible, murderous, planet destroying policies.
I'm too old to be a part of a real revolution. Suicide bombers are always such a tragedy because they are invariably young people. What about older people? They might have a statement or two to make, especially if terminal. Don't volunteer in any venue, or offer speculation or even toy with such an idea anywhere. There is no such thing as a coordinated underground anymore at all. We are all being watched. I have experiences that can prove this, as if you need any. But some tales can only be related on a personal level. Blogs and twitter are fine, but we know what happened in not so ancient Egypt. I adore multilingual people and know how important language is and how it doomed a few not in ancient Egypt. Hieroglyphics needs re-invention.
I've seen this a lot on this blog...
Trump's replacement simply will not happen. Firstly, the GOP is much more of a cult than a political party. They have chosen their leader and they are going to stick with that. Secondly, there is the problem that nobody in leadership is saying they would ever withdraw their support for Trump. Thirdly, Trump still appeals to the rabid GOP base. If they were to replace him, they would revolt. They already think the GOP is too 'liberal' for them as it is.
So the only scenario I can think of is get Trump to quit. Health reasons would be the best case. But Trump WILL NOT play along. Hell, his campaign manager helped out former dictators and he cannot keep Trump on message. We need to face facts and be reality based. Trump is not going away. Hillary is probably going to win. We probably need to be talking about strategy for 2020 and move on from this fiasco. Just my humble opinion.
Democrats, we tried to warn you. How is that guilt and shame working out?
Just wait until Trumpy Boy's '47 percent' video in October.
Yup. I'm going there. After Mother Jones released the 47 percent video, Romney tanked. Hard. The only difference here is Romney didn't have Obama's hand up his ass the way Trump does with the Clintons. And it's becoming more obvious as November gets closer.
Modern education is little more than toeing the line for the capitalist pigs.
Guerrilla Liberalism won't liberate the US or the world from the iron fist of capital.
what??
can you explain? really I do not your metaphor
A crude metaphor for puppetry?
That would be my guess.
"We've done the impossible, and that makes us mighty."
A reference to a cell phone filmed Romney speech, 2012
Life is strong. I'm weak, but Life is strong.
I'm following Sanders' approach.
If the Democratic Party betrays the Sanders-derived platform, I hope the implosion begins May 1, 2017: http://m.dailykos.com/story/2016/5/1/1520548/-Anti-Capitalist-Meetup-May...
Edited to add the link to the post at caucus99percent.com: http://caucus99percent.com/content/anti-capitalist-meetup-may-1-2017-mas...
Sanders platform is already betrayed
but that won't be what implodes the Democrats.
Having an extremely unpopular president that presides over a deep recession and overseas quagmires, while being indifferent to the needs of working class people is what will implode the Democrats.
I don't see why they can't put on this act indefinitely.
Half of America will become useless to agriculture, food prices will skyrocket, and people will starve in the streets, and the nice liberals will continue to point and yell "omigod Republicans."
"The war on Gaza, backed by the West, is a demonstration that the West is willing to cross all lines. That it will discard any nuance of humanity. That it is willing to commit genocide" -- Moon of Alabama
They will so yell,
but less and less people will be listening.
Damn
Looks like Clinton will probably be our next president.
If we can get Jill above 5% nationally, then that's a step in the right direction. Federal funding for the next election.
As to "Why Green?", I'm of the opinion that you need to have some structure to make any headway. I believe that's why Bernie tried to effect this change within the Democratic Party. There's a lot of structure and influence there to get things done.
The Tea Party really shook things up on the Republican end--and Trump is the end result. Over a series of about 3 election cycles, they took over the House, gained influence in the Senate, and kicked all the establishment Republican candidates (even those who trended Tea Party direction) to the curb. It's no longer really called the Tea Party, but it's the same actors and the same sentiment. Even before them, the Koch brothers and ALEC was implementing a lot of what the Tea Party wants in state legislatures throughout the country.
We need to do something similar on the liberal, progressive, left end of things. It'll take time. Outside of the Democratic Party, I see the Green Party as the most viable--on the most state ballots, has some national visibility, supports the general programs we're looking for. But it might take a combination of supporting an outside party and working to elect progressive candidates within the Democratic Party to get what we need.
As more wealth rises to the top and as global warming takes real effect--reducing water, food, submerging communities along coasts and forcing mass migrations, making some areas unlivable from high temperatures, and more extreme weather--changes will take place. A lot of it will probably have related violence.
Stick together--try to change things for the better. Hold onto your ideals and promote them wherever possible.
This world is going to need some innovators, dreamers, and heroes that inspire people.
How can one oppose the democratic party and work
within it at the same time? And if the Green party is the most viable, why not work to elect candidates for that party? Evidently, out of over 500K elected offices, the GP only has people running for 117. Doesn't sound very viable to me, certainly not at this time. A whole lot time and money would need to be spent for a long period of time to get that up and running against the duopoly.
Yes
I am working to elect people in that party!
I only meant if you're looking for a 3rd party, the Green Party is probably the most viable one out there excepting the Libertarians--and they don't really stand for much worth supporting in my view. The Greens are not really that viable at the moment, you're right. But they're at least on the ballot in many states, unlike the Working Families Party, or the Peace and Freedom Party, which are much more wee.
Actually, the only thing the Libertarians have wrong
is the "unfettered marketplace" crap. We know from long experience that an unregulated capitalistic system has only one result: the screwing of the general populace/labor. That's the ONLY reason the Koch's are libertarian, but there are a lot of other good reasons to be libertarian.
It argues for individual freedom. Love heroin? Have at it but don't expect the rest of us to make sacrifices for you. Want an abortion? Your decision. It minimizes federal intrusion into the lives of individual citizens. It is not a compassionate philosophy but considers itself to be realistic. Government programs require agreement from an individual before they can be imposed upon or benefit that individual. In a way, it says that we are each and all responsible for how we want to live our own lives and government will only interfere when that right is abused by another.
I'd be all in if it weren't for that crappy free market shit. But Libertarians would lose membership if they tossed that to the trash heap it belongs to. So we remain: SOL.
I think we need a strong social safety net, and we're going to
need more of one if the ratio of jobs to workers (and especially good-paying jobs) continues to fall, and as climate change causes more and more of the planet to be unlivable and there is massive migration of starving/thirsting people.
And then, of course, there's the fact that famous "libertarians" are not really libertarian, since most of them do want to regulate the one thing all pols should keep their hands off - women's bodies. Glenn Beck, Alex Jones, Ron and Rand Paul, all claim to be libertarian, all are against abortion. I have, of course, a cartoon for that.
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Because we don't oppose the Dem party, but the players
within it at the present time. (I first typed payers; Freudian slip, ha!).
The Dems are the party of FDR and JFK and Carter. It has had its awesome moments.
Is it easier to put better people in charge of the Dems, like the TP has put worse people in charge of the Repugs? We know it can be done, they did it to stiff resistance.
Or is it easier to build a party like the Greens?
I don't know the answer to that question, but I respect the progressives that remain as Dems. Either path seems potentially viable.
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That Dem party...
No longer exists. Just like the GOP party of Lincoln, Teddy and Ike no longer exists.
Democrats, we tried to warn you. How is that guilt and shame working out?
I'm splashing cold water...
All over the place in this diary. My apologies. However, I feel obliged to point out that the Tea Party is a wholly created and wholly owned wing of the corporate elite. It was a response to Obama's even tepid regulation. Now, they got a rabid group of people they can't control on the GOP side. That is why Hillary. That's why Roger Ailes was shown the door.
Democrats, we tried to warn you. How is that guilt and shame working out?
Jill needs to get to 15%
Jill needs to get to 15 percent in the polls to gain admittance to the debates.
"We've done the impossible, and that makes us mighty."
That's the only way
we get a seat at the table.
We can’t save the world by playing by the rules, because the rules have to be changed.
- Greta Thunberg
15% OF WHAT?
Polls? There is no voting, once the primaries are over and the GE is 100 days away.
So even if the nation went for Jill, who is there to report that accurately? The MSM? i don't care if she gets 100% of the vote - she's not going to be allowed onto any national stage.
Don't y'all get it? It is ALL rigged. Donald is there to make Hillary look better - don't you remember that Bill Clinton had a long conversation with the Donald just before he announced? The whole thing has been rigged to put Hillary in the White House even though she is enormously unpopular. The Donald is just about the only candidate she is capable of defeating and we know she had to cheat and rig to beat Bernie.
At this point, I think the Republicans could offer up Sarah Palin as the alternative to Hillary and Sarah would win. Hell, as much as we all berate her, she gave Alaskans a rebate check when oil prices skyrocketed (you need to be Alaskan to realize how important that was for remote villages etc.) and worked to dismantle an oil industry giveaway (ACES) in her short time in office. There are POSITIVES you can drench up for Sarah, but there are not any at all for Hillary.
Late spring polling averages . . .
are usually a good indicator of who wins in November.
This is part of the reason that it was safe to assume that Sanders would be wiping the floor with Trump. He'd already spent over $200 million defining himself, plus the free media, so Fall attacks would have had less resonance.
Traditionally, third parties also poll more strongly in the months before a vote. But if Trump's numbers collapse you might see a lot more volatility.
It would be great to see Trump lose, but seeing Clinton win isn't any consolation. I would expect the Democratic Party to go after Sanders base after November. I also expect that a lot of Sanders supporters will return the favor and continue to pressure Clinton and the Democratic Party from the left. It would also be great to see the Libertarians and the Greens hit the 5 percent threshold for federal funding.
Gallup does their party ID poll the January after an election
It will be very interesting to see the results next January. I expect Republicans to tank, Democrats to fall, and independents to hit around 50%. I don't think Gallup counts minor parties, traditionally.
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It'll be interesting to see.
I see Gallup has some numbers from about a month ago.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/15370/party-affiliation.aspx
The major party numbers look like they're on a gradual decline overall. Dems were actually at 28 percent 12 years ago -- there was a growth in party ID in 2006 and 2008, then a gradual fall just under 30 percent. The GOP peaked in 2004.
What's really striking is the increase in people who don't ID with either party when you factor in leaners. e.g. throughout most of the early 2000s it looks like there was about 7 to 8 percent that didn't lean towards either major party. Since 2014 it's been closer to 10-15 percent.
gjonhsit, there should be a poll somewhere
about whether Trump will stay in the damn race.
"We'll know our disinformation program is complete when everything the American public believes is false." ---- William Casey, CIA Director, 1981
So in other words
Trump is back to where he was in early June, and Clinton is a point or two above where she was then. Effectively nothing has happened for two months.
OMFG, did you hear what Trump said this time? His campaign is doomed this time for reals! All the serious people say so!
Every week for the last year it's the same thing, and his numbers either stay the same or sometimes go up. Of more interest is that after Sanders officially leaves the race and the DNC marketing show Clinton manages to crawl up only a couple of points over where she was two months ago.
The winner of the race will be the one who bleeds the fewest voters to third parties. Right now that's Clinton, barely, but that could change.
"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." -- Albert Bartlett
"A species that is hurtling toward extinction has no business promoting slow incremental change." -- Caitlin Johnstone
Yeah, pretty much
Trump is doing his damnedest to lose the election. Hillary is spending gobs of money on advertising and consultants, while wisely hiding from the public. And it doesn't make a damn bit of difference. Trump could eat a crying baby live on stage, and it would have approximately the same effect as the next Hillary email story. About 30% of the country wants either of these candidates -- the hold-your-nose vote will be the decider.
That's why Johnson and Stein are so interesting. If enough people decide they don't want to hold their nose for Trump or Clinton, this could get very interesting. Bill Clinton won in 1992 with 43% to George Bush's 37.5% and Ross Perot's 19%. It wouldn't surprise me if his wife won in 2016 with much closer to 40%. Helluva mandate there, Hill.
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I don't think it's wise at all for Hillary to hide from the
public.
Trump is in the news 24/7. People feel like they know him. They may not like what he has to say, but he'll change it tomorrow. Meanwhile, he feels familiar and seems down to earth.
Hillary is remote and patrician. This could be greatly helped if she got herself on TV regularly. Sure, she sounds terrible giving a speech, but she can go on talk shows and news commentary shows where she doesn't have to try to shout to be heard (and if she was really smart, she'd get some voice training). She was mildly funny on Saturday Night Live and mildly amusing on late night Jimmy (I forget if it was Fallon or Kimmel). She's no entertainer by nature, but the more she does these appearances, the better she'll get at them. On paper too, she has a ton of issues she can discuss. Compare the Dem platform with the Repugnant platform. We know she won't do much about these issues once in office, but that doesn't mean she can't spin in the meantime.
No, I think the fact Hillary hides is much of the reason the race is so close at this point.
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I disagree with you there
I think Hillary is fundamentally unlikeable. She can be coached to give one pleasant-looking soundbite on SNL, or for a few minutes on a celebrity interviewer's couch. But mostly she looks pedantic, angry or haughty. I don't think she's good enough at hiding who she is to be a fundamentally successful politician, like her husband once was. And we've seen over and over that the more Hillary campaigns, the more her poll numbers fall.
If I were her campaign manager, I'd stick with a Rose Garden strategy as long as possible. Wonder if she's ever going to give a live press conference, come to think of it?
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And who vets her photos anyway?
I just saw this new bumper sticker on the way home. That's from her official web site, and she looks like she's barely holding in her urge to smite the peasants.
We can’t save the world by playing by the rules, because the rules have to be changed.
- Greta Thunberg
Both the nominees are fundamentally unlikeable. Yet all
publicity is good publicity, and everyone is familiar with Trump.
When she stands up and gives a speech to a crowd, her voice quickly becomes hoarse and strained. On TV, she can come across better.
Now, if they put her in a room with Jill Stein or a whole lot of other women, she wouldn't come across well in comparison. But compared to Trump? She's attractive.
Gag me. I can't believe I just said that. Only by comparison.
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Compared to Trump Ted Bundy is attractive
There was a poll before the DNC which showed that 68% of voters did not find Hillary honest or trustworthy, the highest number yet. Even Trump polled at 63% negative. That's a very hard number to turn around, especially when you're a slippery-tongued politician who wouldn't tell the truth if somebody put a gun to your head. Not an attractive look, really. And not a politician likely to convert the 2/3 of voters who don't trust her. Especially when email scandals are lined up for future news cycles.
I think the major party candidate who has the sense to shut up and stay out of the way has the best chance to win. So far, that's Hillary.
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I think you and I are going to have to agree to disagree on that
but those numbers give me hope for third parties.
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Well, I do agree with your opening line; the only reason she
is attractive in comparison is because even Ted Bundy would look attractive in comparison. Ha!
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Cenk Uygur
had an interesting point - talk about Trump, his numbers go down. Talk about Clinton, her numbers go down. They are both deeply unpopular, and exposure hurts them. Of course Trump can't stand to be out of the spotlight.
So this week's media blitz is 100% Trump and Clinton is hiding. I'm not surprised.
"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." -- Albert Bartlett
"A species that is hurtling toward extinction has no business promoting slow incremental change." -- Caitlin Johnstone
Clinton Polls
Everyone except you, are going by the headline in the MSM, that Hillary is killing Trump, when her numbers haven't moved much. With all the bad press Trump has taken in the last two weeks, Hillary should be 20 to 30 points ahead. Have you noticed that she has yet to reach 50%?
Hillary is running ads even here in NYC, and Trump is not running any. Looks like the Republicans are holding back until closer to the election.
It's simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves that we've been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back. Carl Sagan
Why, yes. Yes, I have noticed that.
Now you don't need to reach 50% to win, and nobody will this cycle. It shows how terribly flawed both major candidates are.
One other little detail, this drop in Trump's numbers represents his convention bounce subsiding. Clinton's rise represents her convention bounce, which is a little bigger than Trump's was. It too will subside in a week or two. Then the actual campaign starts.
"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." -- Albert Bartlett
"A species that is hurtling toward extinction has no business promoting slow incremental change." -- Caitlin Johnstone
Well...
This week he attacked a Gold Star family, claimed he 'always wanted a Purple Heart', blabbed about a Top Secret video that it turns out he lied about and let's not forget he attacked firefighters in Colorado over the weekend. It's one thing when he attacks minorities, the GOP tolerates that. But now he has pissed off Military members, the intelligence community and firefighters. All fairly reliable GOP voters. He is finished.
Democrats, we tried to warn you. How is that guilt and shame working out?
Where are all the disillusioned Trump supporters going to go?
I don't think they're going to Gary Johnson because of his pro TPP stance and they're certainly not going to go to Hillary after everything that has happened. That only leaves Jill.
Beware the bullshit factories.
Some people will stick with Trump
A neuroscientist explains what may be wrong with Trump supporters’ brains
The political revolution continues
Substitute HRC supporters and
there is a matched set...just need to change a bit in the last sentence to narcissistic corporatist.
We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence, then, is not an act, but a habit.--Aristotle
If there is no struggle there is no progress.--Frederick Douglass
I'm pretty sure Pennsylvania is an important state.
So I'm thinking most of these polls are full of shit. The people are behind Jill.
Highly Freepable York PA poll
I'm not entirely sure what it means, other than that Jill/Green Party supporters have found themselves an online app they can play with.
But wouldn't it be a hoot if the Greens take PA out of play?
There is no justice. There can be no peace.
This article points out some very good reason for Trump's slump:
What worked for Trump in the primaries is failing against Clinton
The sub-headings show some of the problems:
We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence, then, is not an act, but a habit.--Aristotle
If there is no struggle there is no progress.--Frederick Douglass
In the primaries...
Trump could attack a lot of GOP outsiders to win. The GOP said nothing because he wasn't attacking them. in the process, Trump pissed off everybody who would not consider voting GOP - but still had a path to victory because Hillary pisses off everybody who would not consider voting Democratic. But this last week, Trump has pissed off the military, firefighters, the intelligence community and anybody who cares about national security. He is now starting to piss off parts of the GOP. Hillary has Bernie as a foil for the progressive side of the Democratic party. But if Trump continues to collapse, we will see how much that foil holds up.
Democrats, we tried to warn you. How is that guilt and shame working out?
The polls reflect press coverage which became overwhelmingly
negative the day Hillary addressed the Democratic Convention, IMO.
"The object of persecution is persecution. The object of torture is torture. The object of power is power. Now do you begin to understand me?" ~Orwell, "1984"