Papa Bear Numbers on The Asteroid Virus

With public life abolished, to the extent we have politics now, it takes place here in cyberspace. There is an election coming up and weather extremities continue to portend a very bad future, but both of those prominent topics are vague abstractions compared to the daily reality of the plague that I call The Asteroid Virus. Everybody's life is changed, everybody's future now is utterly different from what was planned as of just six months ago. So it is not surprising that every "fact" under discussion is fiercely contested, starting with the number of people infected, the number of people who have died from the infection and every prediction of where the numbers are going next.

I call myself a skeptic in this discussion, because I am skeptical of every number I hear in connection with any economic or national security policy issue. From my point of view, the truth could be much worse than the authorities are letting on. Or it could be much less harmful than we are being told. Or, maybe our Government is Spot On with its analysis of the pandemic and its assessment of its future course. Those would be the Baby Bear numbers -- just right.

The debate on the internet is mainly between those who claim that the misery and death likely to result from The Asteroid Virus is much less onerous than the various establishment sources will allow. There are accusations of organized censorship and counter-accusations of nefarious political motivations against those protesting the censorship.

There was a great example of this internet struggle over the recently published co-morbidity numbers from the Center For Disease Control. As a skeptic uncommitted to any particular desired result, it seems obvious beyond debate that co-moribidity is a complicated topic, vulnerable to cheap "examples" on both sides of the question. If a 97 year old person with lung cancer contracts Covid-19 and then dies, which was THE cause of death? Or, let's say another 40 year old patient dies after a miserable bout of the virus, but the autopsy discloses previously undiagnosed pancreatic cancer. Is that a cancer death rather than a covid death?

Obviously, this shit about ONE cause of death is ridiculous and it is only being "debated" so furiously now because of the politics of The Asteroid Virus.

I have been accosted on this and one other board with noticeable hostility for not supporting the Fear Narrative. But in these two cases, and a growing number of other notes I am seeing, the person was not hectoring me from the point of view supporting the current restrictions. No, these folks say that the effects of the virus are Far Worse than the authorities are letting on. One person assured me that scientists and doctors know this, but are not talking about it.

Instead of saying that the current number of 180,000 fatalities is too low, this tendency says that the after effects of the disease are horrific with damage to heart, lungs and much more. Instead of Mama Bear's numbers which are far too low, or Baby Bear's "official" numbers alleged to be "just right," the real numbers are scarier than death itself. As my interlocutor stated, "The dead are the lucky ones."

I consider such points of view to be close cousins of my own -- which is skepticism of what the corporations and governments are saying. I do find assertions that substitute supposed "facts" for the obvious lies to be no more credible than the lies from the government. But that does not make their version of skepticism wrong. For all I know they are right.

If these Papa Bear pandemic warriors are right, there are some implications to their point of view that are very interesting. In the first place, the exception ridden regime of Shelter In Place is insane, if non-symptomatic infections "at first" lead to life time serious illness. Remember "Flatten The Curve"? I have no idea what the current story is as each state is doing its own thing and just about everywhere is at some sort of Semi-Lockdown condition.

Whether that phrase has become "inoperative" is an interesting question. And what the current public policy rationale for current policy might be is a mystery to me.

The Papa Bear analysis is utterly inconsistent with any version of "re-opening." The original lockdown did not even try to prevent all infections, and this was obvious from the very first days of the National Emergency. Everybody stay home -- unless you are essential. A Solomon like solution to the obvious implication of the Papa Bear take on the virus.

Between the built in necessity of allowing SOME normal social interaction and the inevitable SNAFUs of life in our utterly corrupt society, there was no way that the sorta lockdown could stop The Asteroid Virus -- the announced idea of "flattening the curve" was to allow the virus to work its way through the population without overloading the hospitals.

The Papa Bear folks have a no-brainer winning argument against the Baby Bears' "Just Right" approach of the last six months of social dissolution that has failed to stop the spread of the disease. Uh, it never could do that, which is what has us Mama Bears stirred into a frenzy, trying to figure out who would dream up such a suicidal public policy that could not and has not stopped the Asteroid Virus.

And so, to all who believe that the pandemic is Worse than we are being told -- we are allies against bullshit.

And, what I hope to see from somebody, anybody, is a way to fight the virus that works and does not also destroy our social order. Shutting down society altogether would indeed kill the virus, along with all of us as we starve to death without the "essential" product known as food.

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Lookout's picture

I'm fast forwarding to the conclusion, but the whole clip is worthwhile
[video:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DZuCrwYa80s&t=21m40s]

Bottom line...Vit D, Zinc plus ionophore like quinine or quercetin. if you have symptoms ivermectin.

I'm no doctor...just a soil scientist, but this is best evidence IMO.

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“Until justice rolls down like water and righteousness like a mighty stream.”

@Lookout

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4 users have voted.

I've seen lots of changes. What doesn't change is people. Same old hairless apes.

vtcc73's picture

was assessing and mitigating risk. I could write a hundred personal stories about where we faced risks big and small, known and unknown, quantifiable and unquantifiable in 38 years of military and airline flying. The one similarity among them all was the lack of the ability to say I know this to be true. We always operate on incomplete and unvalidated data. The wise old military maxim to "honor the threat" is one way to succeed most of the time and at least to get out of the situation with your skin intact if things go sideways. I've never regretted taking a threat seriously even when it turned out to be a big nothing.

Covid is a perfect example. The early reports were of unknown accuracy. The medical and scientific communities, and governments were in chaos but they followed protocols long established. They made great decisions and they made horrible ones. Which was which may be known in a few years but for now everyone, except perhaps the orange haired scourge on humanity's backside, is doing their best with what they have. I'm sure that will affect how the next pandemic is fought.

Until then we all know that there is a lot we don't know. We also know that a lot that we think we know is garbage. That's chaos, unintentional and created. We do the best we can and try to avoid second guessing ourselves. There's nothing to be gained from picking fly shit out of the pepper in the current numbers. We know they're bogus but have no way to know, actually know, not think, hope, or believe what, is correct or wrong. Yeah, it sucks and a lot of people have a tough time dealing with the uncertainty as well as how their lives have been affected.

What I do know for sure right now is that Covid is a threat. The latest wakeup call came when a friend sent the news about the Big Ten and PAC Ten considering shutting down their fall sports programs over MRI heart studies on their athletes who had been confirmed to having had Covid, symptomatic and asymptomatic. 35% of those scanned showed signs of myocarditis, heart muscle inflammation. That's not good and is more data that Covid is dangerous and a worthy threat regardless of age or health condition. We honor that threat.

How, of course, is the question. Even Ecuador is opening up on the 9th although the major cities are continuing to limit movements and gatherings where they have the authority to do so. It's not a tough decision for me or my family and a lot of friends, locals and expats. We know that limiting exposure is effective. We've been hearing how for six months now. Contrary to lots of those who oppose the restrictions distancing and masks has been effective on a personal level. These are the only things we can do or control. We will continue as we have for most of the past six months. Those who wish to do otherwise, or just want scream and shout, will. I wish them luck but I'm staying away from them and where they hang out. There are two parts to the threat - them to us and us, maybe (who knows?), to them. I consider both not just what's good for me. I'd appreciate reciprocity but I'm not expecting much.

Our plan has nothing to do with fear despite so many accusations. It's choosing for ourselves and our circumstances what is an appropriate level of risk and what steps may mitigate the risk. I have to agree that we have to make this change and now may not be the right time but a constitutional court removed the alternative. We're dealing with what is. Each of us will do what's right for us.

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"Ah, but I was so much older then, I'm younger than that now..."

snoopydawg's picture

But you can’t go to church in many states. If you are considered an essential worker such as the people who have been ordered back to work at meat processing plants your employer is not required to provide ppe or even tell you that you tested positive. In some cases they will even make workers continue working while they are sick. Bezos doesn’t even have to follow the basic rules to keep his employees safe because he doesn’t want to. Low wage nurses who work at care centers are getting sick and dying in droves because they are not provided enough PPE.

Hey did you hear about the farm workers who have been considered essential and must continue working in vineyards to pick the grapes even though everyone else has been ordered to evacuate because the smoke is bad for grapes.

Teachers are ordered back to school with inadequate supplies to keep their classrooms safe. I have a friend who teaches and he says that he has to clean the classroom after every class which takes 15 minutes, but he’s only allowed 5. He knows that eventually he will just stop doing it because he can’t do a good job on it. This is happening across the country.

What the truth is about the numbers I don’t know. Yes people are dying from it or being left with long term disabilities, but what are the real numbers? If someone is end stage for any reason and they die with COVID aboard their deaths should not be counted as a COVID death. But we’re seeing that they are. And why wouldn’t hospitals fudge their numbers when they get paid more for treating COVID positive patients. The privately owned hospitals are making out like bandits just because that’s in the plan.

Bob Woodard interviewed Trump in March and he said that he knew COVID was much more serious than the flu, but he sat on that information until today because his book comes out next week. Oops. How many people have died since March or have seen their lives drastically altered because he stayed silent? We’re told if Trump had just done "this" then 50,000 people would still be alive.

Neera is once again telling us that Trump is responsible for Every. Single. Death. in this country. This let’s every governor off the hook for not doing everything in their power to protect people and protect the food supplies as well as all the other things they could have done. Cuomo and Newsom didn’t close airports until it was too late to stop it from spreading.

Before this becomes a rant I’ll just say that I think the poor response to the epidemic was deliberate. This gets rid of the dead weight old folks, many sick and disabled and really culls the lowest working class of excess people who are using the PTB's resources. Plus it saves tons of money that would have been wasted instead of eventually going into their pockets. And congress is doing their job by not providing economic relief so banks can once again get homes for pennies on the dollar.

Oh yeah September 1 was general strike day where you didn’t buy anything. Hmm I wonder how that went?

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Which AIPAC/MIC/pharma/bank bought politician are you going to vote for? Don’t be surprised when nothing changes.

but the decisions of politicians and bureaucrats in response to it - and the willingness of (some) populations to accept draconian measures.

Even *if* severe lockdowns could be shown to be effective in limiting the spread of the virus and/or reducing mortality from it, an informed decision would require consideration of the negative effects - increased depression, domestic abuse, economic destruction, mortality due to deferred diagnosis and treatment of non-covid medical issues - which have largely been dismissed or minimized by decision makers - very often those of a progressive or liberal bent - such as blue state governors in the US and governments abroad such as Australia and New Zealand which now have some of the severest lockdown regimes in the world in place.

Trump may have been expressing what his "expert" advisors were telling him by stating at different points that the epidemic resembled that of a severe flu season and that it was far more serious - Fauci's own pronouncements evolved from one position to the other over time.

Unfortunately, it was the latter that, while mistaken and overblown, led to panicked, authoritarian responses that the PTB seem to very much want to keep in place.

A good explication about how that occurred can be found on RT:

The 1% blunder: How a simple but fatal math mistake by US Covid-19 experts caused the world to panic and order lockdowns

So, who do you want to be responsible for decisions about your health? Yourself or politicians, bureaucrats and their corporate owners?

On the dystopian situation in Australia - particularly Melbourne/Victoria State "living like battery hens":

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snoopydawg's picture

@Blue Republic

Unfortunately, it was the latter that, while mistaken and overblown, led to panicked, authoritarian responses that the PTB seem to very much want to keep in place.

This is my view on why the countries were shut down and it’s why our government refuses to help us economically. 1st we witnessed the biggest transfer of wealth in history and after everyone loses everything the globalists gets to go shopping at fire sale prices.

This was also a way for them to get rid of the undesirables like the elderly, disabled and very poor minorities and working class. Hopefully one day we’ll see the real numbers of people who died from COVID, not just with it on board.

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1 user has voted.

Which AIPAC/MIC/pharma/bank bought politician are you going to vote for? Don’t be surprised when nothing changes.

@Blue Republic
something that seems to be in very short supply. By design or happenstance, the “facts” that the public has been given about this pandemic has been crap from the get-go. The same may be true of the council provided to our chief executive. Garbage in, garbage out. I have little confidence that I, or anyone else, can reach a well informed decision regarding handling the pandemic given the low quality of the available information

I may form an opinion, but that opinion will have more to do with what I chose to accept as fact and what I chose to discard as rubbish than what the actual truth of the situation may be. I trust no one and nothing completely on this issue, including my own opinions.

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Capitalism is the extraordinary belief that the nastiest of men for the nastiest of motives will somehow work for the benefit of all."
- John Maynard Keynes

travelerxxx's picture

@ovals49

I trust no one and nothing completely on this issue, including my own opinions.

Likewise here. No doubt there is accurate information out there, but filtering out the bullshit and political posturing still leaves me with less than concrete info. Certainly not solid enough to bank on.

My trust levels re COVID information:
- Info from any politician –– 0%
- Info from any doctor or medical professional –– 25%
- Info from any online pundit –– 2¢

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