The Only Way Bernie Sanders Becomes the Democratic Nominee
A lot has been made from the fact that Bernie Sanders was booed during a speech when he returned to his Congressional colleagues. What was his crime? He told a crowd full of career politicians that winning elections isn't the ONLY thing they should worry about. What is more important is transforming the country and making sure that all people have a decent standard of living. But these political goons were befuddled. Of course winning elections is the only thing that matters. "Forget policies and what happens to the people that are supposed to be represented. What is more important is that I keep my well-lavished seat on the Hill, rubbing shoulders with the rich and powerful", they replied in angst. However, secretly, these politicians know that their party is dead. Almost half of Democrats and the vast majority of Independents supported Sanders in the primaries and if not for voter suppression of enormous scales, and maybe even some voter fraud, they would have been overtaken by Sanders supporters. They know that polls show half of Sanders supporters still won't vote for Clinton's party and that progressive policies, poll after poll shows, are widely popular. But they also know that they need the corporate cash to win their next election and trust me, winning the next election is the only thing they care about. Thus the only way Sanders is going to convince super delegates to back him, instead of the corporate queen, is to offer his own cash.
How It Works
Bernie Sanders right now has 1846 elected delegates and 48 super delegates making a total of 1894 delegates. To become the Democratic Nominee, Sanders will need 2383 delegates. That means Bernie is 489 delegates shy from the White House. In order to make up the shortfall, Sanders will need to enlist the support of the undecided and Clinton super delegates. Super delegates are made up of Democratic politicians, donors, and lobbyists. the lobbyists are another matter but the politicians, who are responsive to only money and power, give him a very small window for opportunity. There are 177 super delegates who are in the House of Representatives and the average House race costs $1.5 million. So Sanders supporters would need to raise 177 × 1.5 million or $265.5 million.
There are 46 super delegates who are in the Senate and the average cost of a Senate race is $10 million so Sanders supporters would need to raise $460 million. There are 20 governors and since states vary in size, the amount of money can vary widely. Using wikipedia to look up each of the 20 governors individually, Sanders supporters would need to raise about $210 million. All of this comes out to be 243 super delegates for a mere $935 million.But wait, Sanders still needs the support of 246 super delegates. Who are these delegates Sanders needs to woo? They are "unelected DNC members" aka lobbyists and retired politicians who want to have their say on who becomes the next most powerful person in the world. These lobbyists represent corporate and special interests who lavish them with high pay in return for access in the corridors of power. Maybe its wishful thinking, but let's assume these lobbyists can be convinced to join the political revolution for $2 million on average. That would mean Sanders supporters would need to raise 246 × 2 or $492 million. So there you have it: Bernie Sanders would need to raise $1.4 billion in order to become the nominee.
Is it possible?
Yes I suppose anything is possible. So let's do the math. Sanders has been raising about $50 million every month (until April but by then people were demoralized by his loss in New York) so now until November, if he raised that much, he would raise $250 million. Now if his supporters have 5 and half times as much as previously or enlist more people to donate (the vast majority of Bernie voters don't contribute), he would come up with the necessary $1.4 billion by the end of November to pay back all his super delegate voters (he could give to the politicians running for reelection first and then give to the unelected goons later). But maybe the Democratic Party is too corrupted by billions of dollars in dark money cash to be salvaged by anybody. An electoral loss of epic proportions in November may be the only way to wake them up from their cash-ridden slumber.
Comments
I have only one song for the Democratic National Convention:
The ruling classes need an extra party to make the rest of us feel as if we participate in democracy. That's what the Democrats are for. They make the US more durable than the Soviet Union was.
Maybe I don't understand what's going on.
I'll fully admit that. Maybe Bernie actually has a bigger plan that he isn't ready to publicly disclose yet. Maybe he's trying to actually win the nomination. I really don't know at this point.
However, I do know this. I just watched this video from yesterday's GMA, and I almost threw up in my mouth.
[video:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H2O0lMLiZLk]
If I have to hear Bernie vouching for Hillary from now until election day when he knows full well that she's a corrupt corporatist that belongs in jail, I'm going to pull my hair out. He literally sounds like he was replaced by a pod person in that interview. He actually said that it's not about the lesser of two evils and that it's his "job" to make sure that Hillary is elected president. Maybe he's just doing what he feels that he has to do, but it literally hurts to hear a guy who's known for his blunt honesty sound like just another politician.
How can he do it?
We know it is money. I don't think he is being threatened with any kind of physical danger or violence. Vermont will elect him no matter what, so it isn't his position. Power? What power did he ever really have? None. Oh he prliferated legislation, but none or very little of it ever got passed. He even signed onto ObamaCare eventually. What could possibly make him eat all that public crow? If it stops after the convention, I'll cut him and it slack. If it doesn't, I will be totally befuddled.
"Religion is what keeps the poor from murdering the rich."--Napoleon
Sounds like he's running for VP.
Now wouldn't THAT be an interesting development?
The current working assumption appears to be that our Shroedinger's Cat system is still alive. But what if we all suspect it's not, and the real problem is we just can't bring ourselves to open the box?
There is no way in hell Joe Six Pack donates enough money.
It is why we need public funded elections.
"Religion is what keeps the poor from murdering the rich."--Napoleon
hahaha, dkmich,
I saw your subject line over on the left column, and thought "Why is dkmich picking on joe shikspack??!!!"
My brain just translated it that way. When I opened and read the comment, it hit me what you were saying.
I hate this outcome as bad as anybody,
but I'm absolutely -not- blaming Bernie. It would take an awful lot to turn me away from beaming with pride with what he's tried to do and with how far he went... with only our help and the whole of the DNC (and most of Washington) against him. If I was in his shoes, I know I couldn't bear this as graciously as he is... I'd be out for blood and racking up all kinds of bad karma for myself.
I can, however, put myself in Bernie's shoes. He knows better than we how bad he got cheated and burned. You don't think this cuts him to the quick? But instead of lashing out like most of us would, he takes that hurt and turns it towards accomplishing what good he can right now - to help all of us who are barely hanging in there by our fingernails! The DNC platform doesn't "make" Hillary do anything. But it is *something* we can use to push for change. Humiliation and screams for accountability can do a lot of public damage if she does something antithetical to that platform (not to mention the damage to Hill's ego). Yes.... it's a small thing and hard for us to swallow if that's all there is. But it's the only way Bernie could try to salvage something of the reason he ran. Remember, Bernie didn't run for an ego boost; he didn't run for the money; and he didn't run for all that being "president" or "former" president would bring him. He ran for us; not for himself. Not like Hillary.. and certainly not like Trump.
But now he's going to have to go back to Congress and work with these people again. I don't know that I could do that. But he's not about to burn bridges if there's a hope he can still effect some change in his current position.
I, personally, wish he would run as a third-party candidate. But Bernie's a dying breed - someone for whom his word is as important as any signature on a contract. It's a part of the man's essence, and I wouldn't want him to betray his own ethos.
But that doesn't mean I can't write in his name when it comes November. And if Jill Stein's not on our ballot, that's exactly what I'm going to do. For once, I will vote FOR an honest, ethical person for president.. even if it's the last time I ever vote in presidential politics.
Trump doesn't cut it; and Hillary couldn't be honest and ethical in politics if it was spelled out for her, step-by-step. November, 2016 is where I make my stand. And I'm SO proud to have stood with Bernie up to this point -- and just as proud to stand with him as he works in the background (if necessary) from this point, once again.
Bernie, thank you! I gotta luv ya!
I'm Tapped Out
I never had a lot of money, yet I managed to find a couple of hundred to send to Bernie across the past year. Now that he's endorsed The Beast of Walmart, I'm holding on to what I have raised for donations. If he shows a reason for me to send it to him, I will. Otherwise, it goes to Jill Stein and the Greens.
Vowing To Oppose Everything Trump Attempts.
Nit pick: You said Voter Fraud
which is something that is more apocryphal than real, and cannot influence actual elections. Election fraud is what I assume you meant, since it encompasses things like tricks with voting machines and tabulators, voter roll shenanigans, and procedural betrayals with polling place or ballot availability. Voter fraud is the myth the GOP invented to justify voter ID laws and other systematic suppression of voters they considered enemies.