One business model for speculating on homes is failing
No financial bubble bursts all at once. Generally the most leveraged, weakest hands fold first.
Probably the weakest hands of all in the current real estate bubble are the "iBuyers".
Zillow was one of the largest iBuyers.
Listings giant Zillow lost more than $880 million on its failed home-flipping business in 2021, the company reported late last week.According to the Wall Street Journal, the otherwise profitable home-listing and real estate advertising company ended up losing nearly $530 million overall, with the bulk of the losses coming from its since shut-down Zillow Offers, which was responsible for the majority of Zillow’s income — $6 billion of ithe $8.1 billion it generated — but none of its profits.
The company took its algorithmic-driven home-flipping business off the market last November when the tech platform failed to precisely forecast changes in home prices.
Zillow took a huge hit, but it didn't go under. Then, one month ago, Zillow partnered with another iBuyer - OpenDoor.
Why would OpenDoor do that? Today we found out.
Home-flipper Opendoor lost money on 42% of the properties it sold in August after it failed to anticipate the housing market's slide https://t.co/4dYkpt7oIV
— Bloomberg (@business) September 19, 2022
The iBuying giant is for the first time selling homes at a loss. Analyst Mike DelPrete said in a research note it’s the result of a fast-changing market, cooled by rising mortgage rates and stock market uncertainty.Those factors have combined to hurt home values at a time when Opendoor is on the hook for properties it picked up in a historically hot market. A Bloomberg analysis of Yipitdata says that as a result, the company lost money on 42 percent of its sales in August.
“Opendoor doesn’t necessarily have a crystal ball to see into the future with 100 percent accuracy,” DelPrete said. “A lot can change in a couple months.”The company’s struggles are reminiscent of Zillow’s entry into the iBuying market through Zillow Offers.
OpenDoor wasn't nearly as aggressive as Zillow was, but that's the way that bubbles burst.
If you want to know who's next, look at RedFin.
Adjusted EBITDA in Q2 hit a loss of -$28.6 million, despite a gain of $2.8 million in the year-ago Q2. Redfin expects this trend to worsen in Q3, where it is now expecting adjusted EBITDA losses of between -$39 million and -$47 million.
Recall that Redfin is quite a leveraged company already. Its latest balance sheet has $379.6 million of cash against $1.69 billion of convertible debt and credit facilities.
Real Estate bubbles usually burst slowly, and this one will burst more slowly than most because so many that bought over the past decade were most cash or all cash. What we are more likely to see is a Japan-like slow-leak over an entire generation.
Comments
Is that good, or bad?
Holding out long enough for everything to explode seems like nearly all my generation has to hope for anymore.
In the Land of the Blind, the One-Eyed Man is declared mentally ill for describing colors.
Yes Virginia, there is a Global Banking Conspiracy!
Wall Sreet is a casino
and every self styled capitalist a would be player. Why not? In the end we're always the ones that pay for it.
edited for dopiness.