My New Year's wish

is a Republican landslide in 2024.

Here's Wolfgang Streeck on the current news:

The United States in particular, but also Germany, will forever be closely associated with this unrelenting slaughter of thousands of innocent men, women and children, a slaughter that both countries continue to underwrite materially and diplomatically.

Here one needs to remember that Streeck is a German, with no horse in our race. At any rate, it's going to take an awfully long time for America to live down what is currently right now going on in Gaza. The obvious cause of all of it is Biden foreign policy. The Democrats are his most obvious accomplices, telling everyone yeah let's continue promoting the idea of a second term for this guy. It's a really really bad look, and the Democrats' response to this bad look is "we need better messaging!" Taking responsibility, you see, is out of the question.

As for the Dems in particular, they committed themselves to the repressive politics we see in America today, in which Joe Biden hopes to "win" a second term by removing competitors from ballots and enlisting the super-rich to censor contrary opinions. There is simply no climbing down from the Dems' support of this guy. They have screwed the pooch so thoroughly this time around that they only way they'll be able to redeem themselves is by resigning and going on vacation with all of the corporate money they've Hoovered up so that they can spend the time basking in whatever sun their tax havens have on offer, and rethinking their lives.

As for the Republicans, being in power will allow the rest of us to hold them, the Republicans, to account for the misdeeds they're most surely going to perform. Right now we can't do that because the Republicans, unhinged as some of them might be, are not the party in power.

Already I can imagine the howls in response to this diary. "America can't afford another Republican in power!" and "America can't afford a second Trump term!" they will all say. The rejoinder to such arguments is an obvious one. America couldn't afford Biden foreign policy, and yet America bought such policy, and will be paying through the nose for it for quite some time to come.

As for "third parties," let's examine the options so far:

1) Imagine if 15% of the American public joined the Green Party to support Jill Stein. (Disclosure: I will probably support Jill Stein.) The folks who actually go to the Green Party meetings would be like "we gotta stop these intruders from taking over OUR party with their un-Green values!" And then they'd erect a thicket of rules to keep anyone within this 15% from exercising any power within the Party. Maybe the 15% would start a party of their own after being rejected. That would be for the best. Cornel West decided to embark upon a mere vanity campaign after rejecting the Greens.

2) It would be nice if RFK Jr. started a party of his own. At this point it's clear he's deeply confused because there are quite obviously billionaires behind the scenes pulling his strings. It's of no consequence, and it would still be a good thing if he were our next President because then he could be held responsible for the misdeeds he's likely to perform. I don't see it though. Billionaire backers aren't a cause; their candidates win because voters hate the "other guy."

3) Cornel West is a nice guy with an ego too big to see how few states he's actually going to appear on the ballot in. It would be nice, too, if he started a party of his own. The last time Briahna Joy Gray asked him to do something remotely like that, however, his response was "that's not on me." I suppose he could change his mind.

Conclusion: America needs a new party. Will it get one? Probably not in this cycle. So it will be Republicans, and the Faux Resistance will learn what it means to have to be a real resistance. The Democrats will go the way of the Whigs, and we'll get something better in 2026, like we did in 1854. Hint: contempt for the voting public is not an option.

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QMS's picture

mine is a bit more convoluted
wish the whole political mess is flushed down the toilet of history
not realistic, but leads to funny associations..

TV makes flushing politicians look dramatic and effective, but it's a horrible idea.
If you have pills pols past expiration or just don't want them in your house
call waste management for appropriate discarding.

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Cassiodorus's picture

@QMS it's the Biden foreign policy team -- Jake Sullivan, Lloyd Austin, Antony Blinken, Victoria Nuland. Neocons are so Eighties. What are they doing in power in this century?

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“When there's no fight over programme, the election becomes a casting exercise. Trump's win is the unstoppable consequence of this situation.” - Jean-Luc Melanchon

@Cassiodorus what the Right did after 1971 (Powell Memorandum) -- they got serious and got organized with a long-run perspective. What has the Left done in that time? IdPol and discrete one-issue activism mostly, which by definition is going to create a balkanized left landscape making it difficult to overcome purity politics and create coalitions for organized action. See, e.g., the Green Party and Code Pink.

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earthling1's picture

Never vote for an incumbent, ever.

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Neither Russia nor China is our enemy.
Neither Iran nor Venezuela are threatening America.
Cuba is a dead horse, stop beating it.

Cassiodorus's picture

are a certain segment of the European ruling class. Simplicius has them on display today. Here's the cover of their think tank's glossy report:

d23b4d7a-dd4d-47ac-ab30-671e428a06bc_685x788.jpg

Honestly, if I were Vladimir Putin, I would have this cover translated into Russian and grant every Russian citizen a courtesy copy. The Russians would then frame it and put it on their walls. And then you have the people our beloved Democratic Party DIRECTLY support, the neocon gang, whose most recent report is also covered in Simplicius' most recent:

94ec1367-127d-4447-afd2-2c38e7cf4102_711x499.jpg

Of course, the US is going to be paying that high price, because Europe is tapped out and because this same bunch signed on to military doctrines and business strategies two years ago which made the current disaster possible. The main reason the feared total defeat in Ukraine hasn't happened yet, apparently, is because the Russian Army has problems of its own, though they're not the sort of problems the Armed Forces of Ukraine has. I loved it when Simplicius quoted the neocons as saying "Almost any other outcome of the Ukraine war is preferable to this one." Sorry, babes, that's on you.

But the real clincher is the communicative strategy of the neocon Biden gang, which Simplicius does not boil down. It's of no concern: anyone who's been paying attention will at least recognize what Simplicius states, which is that there's a yawning gap between the hubris of "Russia will be easy to defeat" and the fearmongering of "Omigod the Russians are going to win!" The same thing is happening with Gaza, the main difference being that the Gaza proxy conflict is at an earlier stage. These people are enemies of open and honest communication -- toss them out of power, along with their Democrat sycophants.

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“When there's no fight over programme, the election becomes a casting exercise. Trump's win is the unstoppable consequence of this situation.” - Jean-Luc Melanchon

is a swell solution if you're ok with considerable backsliding on a whole host of domestic issues -- abortion, SS/Medicare/Medicaid, ObamaCare, guns, voting rights among others. Meanwhile we would still largely get the same FP as Biden -- strong for Israel, still kinda ok with supporting Ukr, for now, obscenely bloated Pentagon budgets -- and maybe even more emphasis on and hostility towards China.

On DP, the current 6-3/5-4 GOP Supreme Ct gives us a glimpse of what would happen if the GOP controlled not just Scotus but all the branches of govt.

And how exactly would the GOP be "held accountable" and how long would that take? Usually 2-4 yrs until the next midterm or prez election, and in the meantime a great deal of backsliding damage can be done domestically, such that if Ds get elected post-2024, the majority of its political energy would go towards getting back to at least some of the pre-2024 status quo.

Note on Biden: His 2020 election had nothing to do with FP. It was not on voters' radar as they were wrapped up on Covid and their personal economic concerns. Ukr came out of nowhere, seemingly, and Gaza was another unexpected event. Ditto Afghanistan. I can't recall a single FP area of major concern to voters in 2020. For Ds, it was all about getting rid of DJT, with very little discussion about Biden's obsessions in the FP area. Anyway, the Covid Campaign wasn't much for debate about things other than Covid and a few domestic matters.

Re RFKJr, with the possible exception of his views on Israel, it's very unlikely anyone, billionaire or not, is pulling his strings. He's about the least likely pol in the country to be a candidate for puppetry. His campaign does however need major funding -- just to fund his personal security team, probably well over $1m for the year, and probably much more than that to fund his efforts to get on the ballot in 50 states. Get back to me though when you hear he's getting funding from Big Pharma, the oil&gas industry, and major defense contractors.

And starting up a new political party from scratch is still more $$ required to make it a real party and not just a vanity offering. Not practical and not necessary. Right now he has plenty on his plate to deal with. I still don't see him winning, primarily bc it seems like too much to expect, the institutional forces against him too powerful, and bc my strongly preferred candidates rarely win.

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Cassiodorus's picture

@wokkamile

A GOP landslide

is a swell solution if you're ok with considerable backsliding on a whole host of domestic issues -- abortion, SS/Medicare/Medicaid, ObamaCare, guns, voting rights among others.

Sorry but Democrats don't defend "domestic issues." What they do is wage public relations initiatives, while behind our backs they support things like Obama's Grand Bargain and Trans-Pacific Partnership, which were stopped merely due to Republican obstructionism. If Obama's Grand Bargain had passed, we'd have all that nice stuff in theory but the Federal government would simply say "sorry, no money to pay for it." And the TPP would have made any sort of human rights gain impossible.

And, as long as we're going over the idea that Democrats actually defend anything, let's do a short trip down memory lane, to that golden age of Obama when the Democrats ceded 900+ seats in state legislatures to the Republican Party not to mention all branches of the Federal government.

On DP, the current 6-3/5-4 GOP Supreme Ct gives us a glimpse of what would happen if the GOP controlled not just Scotus but all the branches of govt.

So when the Dems had control of both houses of Congress, they could have 1) codified Roe v. Wade into law and 2) expanded the size of the Supreme Court. But Joe said no, and convenient villains or something. Like I said, the Dems don't defend us. The Dems defend rich people. Currently they're busy destroying the US standing in the world, the basic support for our current standard of living, and producing great heaps of dead bodies in the process with more to come, so they can make Raytheon executives happy.

And how exactly would the GOP be "held accountable" and how long would that take?

The easiest and usual method is for the voters to elect the "other guys." It worked in 2018, when they kicked the Republican majority out of Congress. The hard way would be to create a party which actually opposed the Republicans, which we don't have. The first place to start would be with the not-sold-out unions. But it's really telling that I'm being asked how to resist here, as if that weren't common knowledge. "You mean we can actually oppose the system? No kidding!" Anarchists can tell you how to resist, if you can find them. Or ask Jewish Voices for Peace; they might know a thing or two.

such that if Ds get elected post-2024, the majority of its political energy would go towards getting back to at least some of the pre-2024 status quo.

Is that where the energy goes? In actual fact, the energy goes toward encoding money and handing it to rich people. Dylan Riley and Robert Brenner:

This new electoral structure is related to the rise of a new regime of accumulation: let us call it political capitalism. Under political capitalism, raw political power, rather than productive investment, is the key determinant of the rate of return. This new form of accumulation is associated with a series of novel mechanisms of ‘politically constituted rip-off’. These include an escalating series of tax breaks, the privatization of public assets at bargain-basement prices, quantitative easing plus ultra-low interest rates, to promote stock-market speculation—and, crucially, massive state spending aimed directly at private industry, with trickledown effects for the broader population: Bush’s Prescription Drug legislation, Obama’s Affordable Care Act, Trump’s cares Act, Biden’s American Rescue Plan, the Infrastructure and chips Acts and the Inflation Reduction Act. All these mechanisms of surplus extraction are openly and obviously political. They allow for returns, not on the basis of investment in plant, equipment, labour and inputs to produce use values, but rather on the basis of investments in politics.

Enjoy the genocide as long as we're all paying for it.

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“When there's no fight over programme, the election becomes a casting exercise. Trump's win is the unstoppable consequence of this situation.” - Jean-Luc Melanchon

@Cassiodorus really just amounts to the Ds are not perfect, far from it. Agree. Maybe, overall, they do 60% good, 40% bad. That's still considerably better than the alternative party's 5% good to 95% bad, on the domestic issues. Let's leave aside issues like censorship where both parties seem in agreement to operate counter to the 1A.

Yes on some of the specific issues you raise, Grand Bargain, TPP and a few others. But re defending some other issues or promoting them -- healthcare reform, even if by a small step forward in ObamaCare, protecting SS/Medicare/Medicaid, voting rights, abortion, gun laws -- there's no question only the badly flawed DP is backing those, or has traditionally, while the GOP sternly opposes, or tries to hide opposition behind a phony "reform" fig leaf, such as with ideas to "reform" SS/Medicare or "improve" voting.

Some of your assertions are wildly optimistic or close to utopian, such as Why didn't the Ds vote to pack the Supreme Ct when they had a majority. Sure, a very slim majority for most of recent times, in a party that included Manchin, DiFi, Lieberman and a dozen similarly-inclined center/center-right types, all institutional conservaDems inclined to preserve the status quo and hostile to major reform.

Unfortunately, unlike the Civil Rights Era when Ds could count on a number of moderate Rs to come along on important legislation, in the modern era no such Rs are to be found, the GOP having years ago purged itself of its moderate-liberal wing. With nothing close to a working progressive or even moderately-liberal majority in Congress, what results is what is to be expected with such numbers -- gridlock or thin-gruel legislation that advances the ball only a few yards at best (ObamaCare being the most prominent example).

As to holding accountable or resisting, as I note a lot of damage can be done by the GOP holding all power until the next election brings back some small measure of sanity wielded by very flawed pols. It's too great a risk, and I'm sure with all the power in their hands the GOP would while in the majority try to arrange it, by devious means, to make it doubly difficult for any opposition party to win. Strong voter suppression laws is one way and a rather effective one.

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Cassiodorus's picture

@wokkamile

YOur argument really just amounts to the Ds are not perfect, far from it.

This is, for other viewers contributing here, the primary problem. The Democrats can't communicate. They just issue communiques. They don't, you know, respond to points -- they just repeat themselves. Anyone who wants to go back and look at my response can see why I think the Democrats are hopeless and the status quo is untenable.

The IDF, by the way, are not perfect, far from it. Sure, they're committing genocide right now, with made in USA bombs.

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“When there's no fight over programme, the election becomes a casting exercise. Trump's win is the unstoppable consequence of this situation.” - Jean-Luc Melanchon

@Cassiodorus to your specifics -- you're just not seeing that as you want to paint me as a DP loyalist apparently. FTR, I'm supporting a guy who has left the DP for good reasons. I remain only technically a D as a registered one. Too lazy to change. Never a Biden backer, only good for defeating DJT in 2020, like 98% of the other Ds voting.

But I think you tend to want to pigeonhole me into some easy categories bc I might disagree with you, whereas the reality is that I'm innocently stating a pov from an indy-left position. And I'm strongly against purity politics.

The IDF remark is quite a stretch and, if I were more sensitive, a bit of a cheap shot.

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Cassiodorus's picture

@wokkamile -- I don't think your "actual" position is of any importance. You could, as far as I know, be making Devil's advocate arguments, in which case you don't really believe what you are keyboarding but you still think I need to be challenged by the argument you're making anyway.

You would benefit, then, from recognizing the radical character of the argument I'm making here. Perhaps if you did so, if you recognized my argument for what it is, you would be able to voice a genuine disagreement, and state in no uncertain terms why you think the existing system is fine and -- in "your" opinion -- it just needs a couple of tweaks and everything will be okay.

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“When there's no fight over programme, the election becomes a casting exercise. Trump's win is the unstoppable consequence of this situation.” - Jean-Luc Melanchon

enhydra lutris's picture

@wokkamile

if Ds get elected post-2024, the majority of its political energy would go towards getting back to at least some of the pre-2024 status quo.

Historically, when the Dems come to powr after a lot of horrible GOP legislation they generally make no effort whatsoever to reverse any of it. This has driven me crazy for most of my adult life.

be well and have a good one

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That, in its essence, is fascism--ownership of government by an individual, by a group, or by any other controlling private power. -- Franklin D. Roosevelt --

@enhydra lutris arguing on historical grounds, it's difficult to agree or disagree. Need examples please.

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Cassiodorus's picture

@wokkamile Obama's retention of the USA PATRIOT Act, and expansion of the Dick Cheney War on the World. Oh and after W. gave us the No Child Left Behind Act, Obama gave us Race to the Top, which merely privatized the public schools so as to deunionize the teachers and cheapen their labor. Obama's bailout of the banks and failure to investigate, much less prosecute, foreclosure fraud during the Great Recession is another one. At least the Dems were willing to investigate Iran-Contra back in the day, but that, you see, was a period in which there were fewer billionaires than there are now.

Generally speaking, as the rich get richer and as stagnant wages are depreciated by inflation for the rest of us, the elite-level Democratic Party becomes less of an opposition party and must increasingly rely upon diversions such as Ukraine or its current claim to fame, Anti-Zionism is Antisemitism.

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“When there's no fight over programme, the election becomes a casting exercise. Trump's win is the unstoppable consequence of this situation.” - Jean-Luc Melanchon

@Cassiodorus that Obama didn't exactly run as radical lefty but instead as a soft-spoken moderate, more at home in the safe center, a conciliator, than a radical reformer on the left. If he had any lefty inclinations, he knew to tone them down or take a dive. For the most part I see his presidency as one where he was primarily focused on getting through 8 yrs w/o any major screwups or scandals.

As for his mostly bought-and-paid-for colleagues in Congress, not much different, most of 'em oriented towards the center, as they've been since at least the 90s. Meanwhile the few rhetorical lefties like Bernie along with the lib base/progressive movement were of little consequence, as usual, busy with their IdPol and single issue concerns, busy playing purist politics, not building a strong movement, kinda just content that they had helped elect our first black president.

Little wonder then that no or few major reversals occurred. Little if any pressure from below. But generally the voters weren't too displeased as they elected him again in 2012, easily, and the guilty white liberals could again pat themselves on the back for being so virtuous.

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Cassiodorus's picture

@wokkamile would be in reflecting upon which interests are served by the actions of individuals. In this regard, political spectrum labels appear obsolete.

1) "Obamacare" served mainly the interests of the owners of insurance companies and hospitals.

2) Obama's continuation of Dick Cheney's war on the world (mostly through the warmongering actions of his first Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton) served weapons-producing corporations.

3) Obama's reaction to the Great Depression was conditioned by his cabinet choices, which were made on the advice of a Citigroup executive.

4) Obama's proxies bankrupted the DNC to fund his campaigns. This served the interests of a) the Republican Party, which scored big in 2010, 2014, and 2016, and b) Hillary Clinton, whose proxies took over the DNC toward the end of his term.

Generally, then, Obama was an elite serving elite clients, which befits the form of government we have here in the United States, which is to say, oligarchy.

Identity politics is essentially a neoliberal politics. Nobody is liberated by corporate diversity hiring, but it does make good image-polishing.

All of the trends point to one and only one formation: oligarchy. In the US, oligarchy takes the form of teams of political mediocrities who "earned" success through appointment, and donor classes of millionaires and billionaires whose political action committees and political clients make the real decisions. The emerging world order, in which the US and most of Europe will be in decline (Europe faster than the US) while the BRICS nations will be ascending, will be a world order of oligarchies. In some countries the oligarchies will be headed by competent leaders like Putin and Xi Jinping; other countries will simply have teams like, say, Team Biden or the Conservatives/ Labour in the UK. In countries with political duopolies, the teams (Republican/ Democratic etc.) will trade places now and then while the real power is vested in elite moneyed classes.

Which brings me back to the matter of forming a new political party. I have brought it up multiple times in this diary. If there is to be any point in politics for those of us who don't have great sums of money to rent out politicians, it will have to be in a new political party. The point of the new party will be, of course, to contest the power of the political duopoly. If you're not interested in such a project, you are probably just fine with things the way they are.

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“When there's no fight over programme, the election becomes a casting exercise. Trump's win is the unstoppable consequence of this situation.” - Jean-Luc Melanchon

enhydra lutris's picture

@wokkamile

the dems returned to powr I thought "Good, now they can get rid of (one or more odious GOP instituted laws) and they not only never did so, they never even tried to do so.

be well and have a good one

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That, in its essence, is fascism--ownership of government by an individual, by a group, or by any other controlling private power. -- Franklin D. Roosevelt --

the only hope for positive change is a movement towards a constitutional convention.
sure as hell wont be anything at all on the ballot next year.
Not that anyone wants your vote.

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@kelly to agree on the constitutional convention -- so many of our problems can be traced back to fundamental outdated institutional problems and getting just a single issue con amendment passed is so difficult. But I fear the much better organized Right and what mischief it could achieve at such a convention -- more imposed religion and religious tests in our lives, loyalty oaths to hold office, guns etc.

And I think before we see such an unprecedented CC (it would take 2/3 of state legislatures to call for one, a heavy lift, and an even heavier one for the convention's amendments to be approved (3/4 of the states), before that we will see another Civil War.

Especially dicey is the upcoming election situation. The most obvious scenarios that could cause everything to unravel in chaos: 1) Trump is denied ballot access in enough states to deny him the presidency. 2) Trump is on the ballot but loses again and forcefully claims Election Fraud! 3) Trump is convicted just before the election and is vulnerable to being sentenced to a 5-15 stretch in Rykers, mostly skewing voting against him.

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QMS's picture

@wokkamile

on those steps, crack his head, and become comatose.
Unless the DNC pulls out another blooper, will it be Camel
vs. Clown? Our future is not looking too bright.

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@wokkamile I think the value would be the threat, more than carrying it out completely.
If a counter strategy could even survive the oxygen free information strangle of our brain deadening media, the immediate response to an undercurrent demanding fundamental change
(Which could be as elegant as simply following our own GD piece of paper, restoring the inalienables, and ditching the self rules applied by wealth over the last decades as they stole their power.)
left and right scarcely matter except in the divided conquest we currently enjoy.
It seems highly likely any amount of noise directed at real reform against phony partisan war makers would be met by some serious head spinning and busting.
Politicians hate the people.
Change the discussion.
Join forces in solidarity and hate em back.
I never thought the constitutional convention approach was viable, but with clean framing these days it could drive these monsters into clearer focus.
Cant keep kicking the can buying into the two party scam or the notion of representation by lying war criminals.
I think the average American would find just cause in a good fight after all we have been through.
they need to fear us and they do.
we need to use that.

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