Medical personnel speaking out: Coronavirus a big nothingburger
This video is just the first in what you can expect to become more and more common: Doctors on the front lines speaking out about what a nothingburger the Coronavirus panicdemic really is.
[video:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gNTHuCOjAy8&feature=youtu.be]
Cross referencing their data with national data confirms their numbers.
"Is the flu less dangerous than Covid? Let's look at the death rates. No, no it's not."
I really loved this line:
"We're actually seeing the patients. Dr. Fauci hasn't seen a patient in 20 years."
But this is the concerning part, the part I've been trying to get people to listen to. They're faking the numbers and boosting up the death toll.
ER Doctors now say "I'm being pressured to add Covid?"...to maybe increase the numbers and make it look a little bit worse than it is? I think so.
Here are some numbers that DO add up: As the numbers being tested increase, it's becoming more and more clear that approximately 8-12% of the populace has been infected, which is a normal flu. As one doctor said, that's the good news. It's about as prevalent as the flu. Now, looking at the deaths and knowing that 8-12% of the populace has been exposed, you get a death rate of 0.03%.
Here is a longer version of the doctors press conference.
[video:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zb6j7o1pLBw]
TL;DR version: It's just the flu. It may be more contagious, spread faster, but it's still no more dangerous than the flu.
You don't think this is because of social distancing? No. That's why we went over the data for nations without the lockdowns. Lockdown vs Non-lockdown did not cause a statistically significant different number of deaths.
They agree with my initial assessment: The numbers just don't add up.
Comments
I don't believe this
But is Covid-19 worse than the Asian Flu? Probably not.
Sweden Vs. Norway
They argue that Norway (lockdown) and Sweden (no lockdown)aren't statistically different? As of today, Norway has 201 deaths vs Sweden with 2,192 deaths. That seems significantly different to me, even when accounting for Sweden's higher population. Do they have different data? Did they publish this?
Going for herd immunity?
From your link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=164&v=gNTHuCOjAy8&feature=em...
So, was Trump right when he said the COVID19 pandemic was just a hoax? That it was "just the flu"?
Hmm..doctors who own an urgent care center
are not suspect of fudging the numbers? Think a doctor wouldn't risk their patients lives? Think again. I worked for one that I turned into the medical board because he was doing surgery on people that did not need it. He would change the test results that I recorded. He did surgery for a disorder that has to be done within 3 days max. His time frame? 5 effing years. The result? Nada.
ETA:
Can you imagine suddenly losing the site in one of your eyes and then someone tells you that he could fix it with surgery? That person was so hopeful that he would be able to see out of both eyes again only to get the bandages off and realize that nothing has changed. The doctor sent him to me to take a picture of his eye and asked me "Doesn't that look pretty?" I said, "Yeah, but how's his vision?? No light perception which meant he was still totally blind in that eye. Any guesses what the medical board did with my complaint? Again nada. The doctor continued doing it and making tons of money and enough to build his own surgical center. I had moved to CA for the job and it was 8 months of hell because of his actions. Just as I was going to quit and pump gas or something another doctor offered me a job. Phew.
I just had to get this off my chest because it brought up so many bad memories. Betraying the people who had come to know and trust me and I just felt helpless because I could not speak out and protect them. Elderly patients put a great deal of trust in doctors and it takes a complete _____ to deliberately betray them
Which AIPAC/MIC/pharma/bank bought politician are you going to vote for? Don’t be surprised when nothing changes.
You may have a point that the numbers don't add up
but not in the way you're thinking.
A friend sent this same video but I haven't had the time to watch any of it. He's convinced that the novel coronavirus is part of a huge international conspiracy to control the world. No, he's not from the US. Shocking? I know. Anyway, he is a real smart guy but one of the traits I've seen from him is that when he has an opinion and goes shopping support. Now there's the average American for you.
Back to the numbers. There is not enough testing going on anywhere to have a realistic picture of what's going on. (Second link below for an explanation.) That's a major part of the problem and, if there is overly cautious action from public health officials being taken right now, it's as likely to be in the opposite direction from what anyone wants to believe.
An example, is the pure shit show going on in Guayaquil, Ecuador. It's a sea port, tropical, and the largest city in Ecuador. Poverty and slums are extensive. This is the city the news media in the US decided to use in their "See it's worse elsewhere!" pieces. Hundreds of dead bodies in the streets they said. Yes, there were dead bodies. One of the major fuckups the government made was declaring that funeral homes were nonessential. 80% closed due to the declaration or fear about not having adequately personal protection equipment to handle highly infectious bodies. The army finally had to be given the job and, yes, there were bodies all over in locked homes, slums, and occasionally in the streets because families had to get the remains out of their homes while waiting days for pickup. All happening in the tropical sun.
That's not the point, just background. The city government has been howling for more medical equipment and trained personnel. Everywhere else in Ecuador has been quite successful in protecting people and building strong facilities with qualified doctors, nurses, and care givers. The numbers show it. Guayaquil has 70% of the cases and 70% of the deaths. They were weeks ahead of the rest of the country with confirmed cases but did not have adequate testing in addition to everything else. It's likely we'll never know the true death toll attributable to the virus.
That's a contentious point between the local government and medical community and the national entities. The city recorded over 8000 deaths last month in a city that normally records about 1000. The city and the medical community continues to ask the national government to help them discover a reasonable explanation where there is only one difference - the virus. The probability is very high that the infection and death rates from the virus are much higher than expected. That means that there are perhaps well over 100,000 infections just in that one city which is not supportable with the numbers the public health ministry can confirm because they're unable to do sufficient testing. This is not unique to Ecuador. This is the situation all over the world.
I've not watched the video, yet. I have to now but from the characterization of others this looks like another attempt by shitheads to make a buck. There's surely no shortage of that crap going on is there?
So far I've seen exactly one evidence based interview where the researcher wasn't making a pitch that could be cashed in on. The hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine apparent scam is a perfect example. The Stanford team burned their reputations on that one. (That's another one my friend bit on hard even as it was being slowly rejected as harmful.)
My take is that nobody has the big picture of what is going on. Evidence, not speculation and untested anecdotal suggestions, is hard to come by due to the limitations of testing and this being very, very early in a long term event. I immediately reject any claim of a cure, a sure fire therapy, and anyone selling anything. I really question everything I read, see, or hear especially if I agree with it. That seems a rare idea, no? Even the interview and articles I'm going to link next are only possibilities. They make sense on a level above I believe or I hope this is true so my life will be less restricted. Doing otherwise is a fool's errand.
Blood-clotting complication linked to deaths. WaPo.
CNN video intertview with Dr. Osterholm
Off topic but a blood boiling counterpoint to the administration's "Who coulda known?" horseshit. This is criminal. Timeline of the Coronavirus Pandemic and US Response.
I really hate linking anything from CNN and WaPo but even a blind squirrel finds a nut every now and then.
I understand the fervor to get back to normal. Millions out of work who didn't have a pot to piss in or a window to throw it out is really hard. I do think there is a balance that can be found to allow people in many situations to get back to work safely. Unfortunately, those who need a break the most aren't in those kinds of jobs. I don't trust many governmental entities in the US to find that balance but it probably has to be tried.
Ecuador announced a loosening of restrictions beginning on 4 May. I was really skeptical. It's too soon by any previously announced metric for this to occur. Even seven weeks of strict restrictions has not been adequate to show a clear flattening of the curve in any city. Hints but nothing clear. The pressure from labor and business groups seemed to have been too much pressure on the health minister. I feared this was a mistake although people need a break. The few details that were released today indicate that the easing will be very much targeted. There has been decent management so far considering the limited resources available in a small, poor country. I think they deserve the trust that they'll continue to do what's right. I'll gladly take any additional precautions that seem prudent even if that's not official policy.
Y'all be careful.
"Ah, but I was so much older then, I'm younger than that now..."
Great advice
Yeah, I think it is rare. I also think all kinds of problems might be mitigated if more folks did this. It's advice that applies to much more than this pandemic.
Questioning everything I read, see, or hear especially if I agree with it is something I'm going to make a concerted effort to do.
The Kern County Health Department disagrees with him.
The guy in the video said there were
4 deaths
327 recovered
This would be about a 1% mortality rate. We do not know what will happen to the people who are infected but not recovered.
If there are
708 confirmed cases
5372 negative tests
We do not know what percentage of the population is infected.
According to census.gov Kern county has a population around 900,000. This means that at the time of the video about 6,000 had been tested. Most of them were probably tested because they felt ill or believed they had been exposed to the virus.
We do not know how many people have been infected.
The guy in the video claimed that the health department agrees with him. According to the same TV station:
The Health Department strongly urged viewers to continue to stay home.
https://www.turnto23.com/news/coronavirus/kern-county-public-health-does...
They've definitely been prepped.
They say they don't want to make this political, yet they are speaking out because they are worried about getting people back to work, government undermining civil liberties, and his followers on Facebook buying out ammo shops.
Fair enough: all valid concerns. But don't tell me you are simply speaking as medical professionals when you spend most of your interview pontificating about everything but the science.
The propaganda push to get people back to work is going to be intense the next month or so. The economic numbers are VERY VERY bad and even a minor pothole in revenue upsets a whole lot of over-leveraged apple carts - let alone a gaping chasm exacerbated by a full scale lockdown that lasts months.
The current working assumption appears to be that our Shroedinger's Cat system is still alive. But what if we all suspect it's not, and the real problem is we just can't bring ourselves to open the box?
My take
Deaths are not abstract. Death tolls are real people who could be any one of us, or our family members, friends, neighbors, or co-workers. For this reason, I find the premise of using death toll rates as being somewhat cold when speaking about whether or not we need social distancing as a strategy in keeping COVID-19 at bay.
So even though the death tolls from COVDI-19 now may not be as high as the seasonal flu, that is not the only issue with COVID-19. COVID-19 is highly infectious and there is no cure nor a vaccine for it. Vaccines create a herd immunity whereas with COVID-19, every person is theoretically susceptible to it. To me, that means that without social distancing, we could be overrun with cases, the vast majority of which will survive, but the most serious of which will overwhelm our medical system. The idea is to prevent the entire system from collapsing due to an acute onslaught of COVID-19 patients.
The real issue here is the lack of will of those in charge of our government to support true small businesses and people who have lost both their jobs and any medical insurance because of the shut down. If people were more economically secure, they would be much more willing to comply shut down and we would be through this much sooner.
Do I hear the sound of guillotines being constructed?
“Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable." ~ President John F. Kennedy
Covid-19 denialism is tracking the exact same
epistemological pattern as all other varieties of denialism, a fact that all by itself should flip any critical thinker's "Oh, really?" switch. How many times will we see some version of the assertion that there's no epidemiological difference between places with lockdown and places without restrictions, yet with neither numbers nor statistical methodologies provided?
Your observation about the lack of a vaccine is important. Even if this thing were "no worse" than the flu (a statement premised on inadequate -- to be generous -- statistics AND the assumption that the severity of disease outcomes is limited to a single domain, and is binary: "Died" and "Didn't die"), bear in mind that the WHO considers influenza one of the most serious public health problems out there, which is why billions are spent each year producing and distributing a vaccine.
Meanwhile, the death rate in NYC is still running twice normal. Until some doctrepreneur in Bakersfield can explain what's happening in the Bronx, I will dismiss his smug, "We see patients" non sequitur with casual prejudice.
The earth is a multibillion-year-old sphere.
The Nazis killed millions of Jews.
On 9/11/01 a Boeing 757 (AA77) flew into the Pentagon.
AGCC is happening.
If you cannot accept these facts, I cannot fake an interest in any of your opinions.
The death rate in NY was what I was referring to
when I said the numbers don't add up. The numbers in NY mirror the numbers in Italy and in Italy, we now know that many of the patients labelled CV deaths were in fact going to die anyways and the death toll from CV was falsely boosted by their reporting methods.
These Kern county Drs. could be lying or they could be telling the truth about other Drs. being pressured to cite CV as cause of death. Considering what happened in Italy and the way Italy! Italy! Italy! became the new Russia! Russia! Russia! I'm inclined to give them the benefit of the doubt and take their claims as worthy of consideration. Now seems the time to investigate more deeply into these claims, not dismiss them.
You take out Italy and NYC and the rest of the world, which adds up to way more than those two areas, all fall in line. NYC and Italy are major outliers. That they're being used to fuel the panic is suspicious. Perhaps merely opportunistic, but nonetheless, we need to be more skeptical and less trusting, not more so, in light of the revelations coming out of Italy.
That 12% number jives with the rest of the world's numbers. If so, then - and only then - does Italy's numbers add up. Can NY's numbers be due to the same flawed reporting? If so, it lends credence to the Kern County DRs. claims that their colleagues are being pressured to over report.
Covid is causing
heart attacks, strokes, and various kinds of organ failure. The virus is causing those things and many more. So yes, if a Covid patient dies of a heart attack or liver failure, it is a Covid death.
Those doctors would know that if they were doing any reading or research.
I defy them to show why and how they are qualified to argue with some of the top experts in the world who have been treating Covid patients, and helplessly watching some of them die.
Spot on Granma
eom
you are wrong.
the numbers in france, spain and the UK are all tracking with the numbers in italy. in fact, the UK (which was the most reluctant to take any sort of measures, under the misdirection of their TV-celebrity bone-head PM) is on track to become the worst-hit of the European nations.
as for New York, here's the problem with your model: Normally at this time of year, about 3000 to 3500 people in New York State die every week. Right now, over 6000 people in New York State are dying every week, and a few weeks ago, it was on the order of 7000. Why? If they aren't being killed by Covid-19, what is killing them? Anxiety? What do you mean, when you say, "They all would have died anyway?" They certainly would not have died in March and April. That many people never die in March or April in New York State. (For that matter, for weeks the death rates have been beyond the maximum rate seen at the peak -- typically 2ndish week -- of any flu season of the last 50 years.)
That is what you need to explain, if you want to be taken seriously. You are so certain that New York is just willy-nilly and bogusly labeling every dead guy as a Covid-19 victim, but you have no evidence-based explanation for the explosion in New York's overall death rate.
The earth is a multibillion-year-old sphere.
The Nazis killed millions of Jews.
On 9/11/01 a Boeing 757 (AA77) flew into the Pentagon.
AGCC is happening.
If you cannot accept these facts, I cannot fake an interest in any of your opinions.
In addition to this
For some patients who have recovered from being seriously ill there is lasting damage to the lungs, heart, kidneys, eyes, brains and other organs. People have been posting an article titled It's not just the flue and it highlights how damaging it is for some. If you see it go to the home page and read the other articles that detail the damage. So in this country where millions do not have health insurance will those that don't fully recover continue to get coverage under Trump's plan to pay all costs? How about getting them on social security disability asap instead of having them go through the process of many denials for years?
I just read how people are flocking to the beaches in California and state parks in Utah and just ignoring the social distancing rules. Utah had to close the state parks again after they just opened last week.
It will be interesting to see the infection rates a few weeks down the road after so many have decided that they will no longer stay at home. Every business should stay closed until those number come in. If they are lower than expected then states can open up again, but still slowly. If they skyrocket well then we know we have to stay home longer.
As usual in this country we are getting hit with so much propaganda and it's hard for some to understand they are being manipulated. Even I know that I am falling for some because there is so much uncertainty out there. And this doesn't help:
Many patients were on the terminal list before they got infected so did it push them over the line or was it just present when they died? We need some honesty on that.
Which AIPAC/MIC/pharma/bank bought politician are you going to vote for? Don’t be surprised when nothing changes.
Just saw a report indicating that testing data is showing
infection rates of about 20% in New York.
Go do some searches on Kern County. This is NOT Medical personnel speaking out, it is some Doctors in Kern County talking about Kern County. We're getting a very different perspective from Doctors and especially Nurses here where I am. Kern county half-ways practices social distancing in normal times, it is mostly widely separated ranches and small towns.
Area: 8,163 mi²
Population: 900,202
That's 110 per square mile, but, Bakersfield has over 383,579 population gets it down to about 63 persons per square mile for the rest of the county. Since cows and carrots cannot get, carry nor transmit the virus person to person transmission rates will be generally low. Kern county is also hot, this virus doesn't like hot, won't last that long on surfaces and in the air. Since those doctors are arguing for a return to work, let them, but don't generalize from that except to places with similar population densities and climate. This is defacto cherry picking the data.
Lets look at Alameda County:
Population: 1.671 million (2019)
Area: 821 mi² (739 mi² Land / 82 mi² Water)
Very few live on the water, so we get 2,261 persons per square mile and we still have substantial open space and parkland. Under normal conditions, if we went back to work, business as usual from before, infections and hence infection rates would skyrocket with every damn BART train that ran.
be well and have a good one.
That, in its essence, is fascism--ownership of government by an individual, by a group, or by any other controlling private power. -- Franklin D. Roosevelt --
Surplus deaths
Are the real way to test these theories. Everywhere I have looked they are like 25-50% above normal and getting worse, and that is with control techniques we don’t apply to seasonal flu. So I think all the “nothingburger” arguments don’t pass a basic smell test, and I then suspect that anyone pushing them probably has an agenda.
We can’t save the world by playing by the rules, because the rules have to be changed.
- Greta Thunberg
I have no problem with them injecting commentary into their
message. There are many public actors and information outlets lying either overtly or by omission for whatever motives, and very few voices calling them out.
Remember this guy's name
and when the death toll crosses 150k or so, as it will in the coming weeks, file a complaint against his medical license with his state board, any citizen can do this. This sort of advocacy puts the public at risk, and as such is reportable.
I'd love to see him defend himself against a state board.
"Obama promised transparency, but Assange is the one who brought it."