Let’s talk about the weather

Let’s start with this verse from Lewis Carroll:
"The time has come," the Walrus said,
"To talk of many things:
Of shoes--and ships--and sealing-wax--
Of cabbages--and kings--
And why the sea is boiling hot--
And whether pigs have wings."
The pigs with wings thing is a done deal if you think about Airforce One. The question we seem to be getting closer to an answer for is “why the sea is boiling hot”.
Boiling is a very interesting scientific study. The short description is that if you heat a fluid the heat raises its temperature to a point (the boiling point) and then the molecules in the liquid begin to leave at its surface and mix with the air above the surface as vapor. We are most familiar with this in the case of water, but it happens in most liquids.
If you are delicate about this you can reproduce a very exciting example of self- organization. The classical experiment is done in a shallow dish on a hot plate. The fluid is heated from below making the bottom layer warmer and less dense creating an instability. With the help of gravity the more dense cooler fluid at the top falls and the less dense warmer fluid rises. At some point the entire system self organizes and hexagonal convection cells cover the dish with this orderly mixing process having each hexagonal cell bounded by two currents, one upward and the other downward.
Now imagine a layer of fluid around a sphere. The earth’s atmosphere, for example. Warm the oceans below the air and you begin to organize a global system of currents. This is the heart of our weather systems. The real story is far more complex, but the ideas are preserved.
In the small dish, the picture described above is rare. The convection cells are very irregular and of different sizes due to vibrations and other disturbances. That begins to approach the complexity of our atmosphere.
So what is a hurricane but a special case of a self- organized convection cell? We see them when the temperature of the ocean gets high enough. Just as in the dish there are no convection cells before a critical set of conditions arises.
In the dish the system is very uniform relative to the earth’s surface conditions so the convection cells are usually isolated events.
Right now a new set of conditions prevail due to the accelerating effects of global warming. Just before I began writing this I was looking at the three hurricanes strung out in a kind of row in the Atlantic and Gulf.
A one-time coincidence or a beginning of a new set of weather patterns? Only time will tell.

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thanatokephaloides's picture

"The time has come," the Walrus said,
"To talk of many things:
Of shoes--and ships--and sealing-wax--
Of cabbages--and kings--
And why the sea is boiling hot--
And whether pigs have wings."
The pigs with wings thing is a done deal if you think about Airforce One. The question we seem to be getting closer to an answer for is “why the sea is boiling hot”.

These are common discussions here on c99.

Therefore, I am the eggman, we are the eggmen, we are the Walrus.

Goo-goo-goo-joob!

[video:https://youtu.be/19sAewJH22I]

Wink

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"US govt/military = bad. Russian govt/military = bad. Any politician wanting power = bad. Anyone wielding power = bad." --Shahryar

"All power corrupts absolutely!" -- thanatokephaloides

Pricknick's picture

@thanatokephaloides
Not two hours ago I went on a Magical Mystery Tour.
Get out of my head!

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Regardless of the path in life I chose, I realize it's always forward, never straight.

Pricknick's picture

that you are at a site where most understand what you're talking about don.
The fact that many don't realize, is that weather phenomena is just that. A phenomena.
We know nothing about what can and will happen to any degree of certainty.
Unchartered territories.
As a nurse, I am infinitely intrigued by what happens when a feedback mechanism of the human anatomy goes into motion. We've had more than a few hundred years of massive, intrusive study on the human body to speculate and yet we still don't understand why some things happen. It's like hanging a dry towel outside to predict the weather. If it's wet, it's raining.
I hold no hope for the continued existence of the human race and most of life at that. Yet I stand in awe of what nature will accomplish as we're wiped away like feculent matter.
Good riddance I say.

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Regardless of the path in life I chose, I realize it's always forward, never straight.

The Aspie Corner's picture

Seriously. I fully expect Dipshit to come to FL just to satiate his god damned ego.

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Modern education is little more than toeing the line for the capitalist pigs.

Guerrilla Liberalism won't liberate the US or the world from the iron fist of capital.

WoodsDweller's picture

@The Aspie Corner
You can bet El Trumpo will be in Florida, and talk endlessly about he's a victim.

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"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." -- Albert Bartlett
"A species that is hurtling toward extinction has no business promoting slow incremental change." -- Caitlin Johnstone

WoodsDweller's picture

Irma, Jose, Katia

Irma03_20170907.jpg

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"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." -- Albert Bartlett
"A species that is hurtling toward extinction has no business promoting slow incremental change." -- Caitlin Johnstone

Kamala, Cory, and Chelsea.

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I read something today on politifact that didn't sound right (conflicts with something I remember reading a long, long time ago). I was going to try to look it up when I had time. But this seems like a good place to ask about it.

There were silly internet rumors that they might make a new classification for Irma, a category 6. It was rated pants on fire. I knew that was the case but my question is about the reason they gave for why.

Politifact:

The idea of creating a Category 6 is often met with skepticism, however.

The most frequently cited reason is that Category 6 would add nothing to the understanding of how destructive the storm would be for buildings and other structures.

"Almost no structures can withstand sustained winds over 155 mph," said Michael M. Bell, an associate professor in atmospheric science at Colorado State University. "At those wind speeds, significant damage or even total destruction of most buildings is expected.

I remember reading somewhere that it's not just for "my amp goes to 11" reasons, or that 155mph destroys everything so it doesn't matter anyway. Thats not why there's no Cat6. There's an actual physical reason the pressures and wind speeds can't go beyond certain levels, it's self-limited by some physics principle. At a certain point it starts to work against itself. A hurricane can be worse because it's bigger but it's physically impossible for it to strengthen beyond a certain point.

I know a hurricane depends on the hot water and as it sucks up the water it cools it and that's one way it slows itself down, but I thought there was more to it than that.

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WoodsDweller's picture

@Dopeman
It's simply a matter of wind speed. Irma is a very strong storm, but nothing that breaks the scale. There might be reasons to make a 6 category, but Irma wouldn't be in it.
The destructive power of wind goes up with the square of the speed, so if we were to define Cat 6 as sustained winds of 200 mph or more they would represent storms that level cities to the foundations. No such storms have been observed, though they may have occurred in the past.
Hurricanes are limited in strength by the depth of warm water. Water vapor forms over warm surface water, absorbing heat and cooling the surface, then rises to the upper atmosphere where it condenses, releasing heat into space and causing low pressure. The low pressure pulls up the ocean surface which brings lower water to the surface. As the storm gets stronger it pulls water from below the warm surface layer and eventually taps water which is too cool to sustain the storm and it weakens.
As the ocean absorbs more heat from continued global warming the depth of the warm surface layer increases, allowing storms to continue to build. With a thick enough layer of warm enough water you could build storms much stronger than any we've observed in historical times, but remember that it takes exponential energy to produce linear increases in wind speed.
I have every confidence that we'll see 200 mph hurricanes in the near future. By the time the ocean is warm enough to produce 250 mph storms I doubt there will be any humans alive to witness it.

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"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." -- Albert Bartlett
"A species that is hurtling toward extinction has no business promoting slow incremental change." -- Caitlin Johnstone

don mikulecky's picture

@Dopeman good question....in the lab model (Benard Cells) as in any pot of boiling water there is an upper limit. The orderly flows break down and chaotic turbulence follows. That is our more familiar picture of boiling water.

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An idea is not responsible for who happens to be carrying it at the time. It stands or it falls on its own merits.

don mikulecky's picture

@Dopeman here's more on the way it would be if ocean temps got really high

Hypercane

hypercane is a hypothetical class of extreme tropical cyclone that could form if ocean temperatures reached 50 °C (122 °F), which is 15 °C (27 °F) warmer than the warmest ocean temperature ever recorded.[1] Such an increase could be caused by a large asteroid or comet impact, a large supervolcanic eruption, or extensive global warming.[2] There is some speculation that a series of hypercanes resulting from an impact by a large asteroid or comet contributed to the demise of the non-avian dinosaurs. The hypothesis was created by Kerry Emanuel of MIT who also coined the term
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An idea is not responsible for who happens to be carrying it at the time. It stands or it falls on its own merits.

to disregard scientific consensus, but I tend to look at our situation from a more mythological point of view. What I see, is that Gaia is very angry. And she has every right to be angry. I am angry too. In fact, I am so angry that I'd rather see the whole of Florida blown away, than to see the last polar bear die.

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native

Pricknick's picture

Edit: (Meant in reply to native)
Greek mythology. You could say I was born into it.
Unfortunately, many have never read it so I prefer to call out Mother Nature as often as Mother Earth so as to hopefully associate.
Even then, few seem to notice.
Such is life.

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Regardless of the path in life I chose, I realize it's always forward, never straight.

Bisbonian's picture

Don (Which is no surprise). I use a simplified analogy, of a pot of water on the stove, turning the heat up slowly. You can see the convection, and you can really see it getting more violent as the temperature increases. My work environment demands that I pay close attention to the atmospheric currents...I see rapid change over the last few years.

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"I’m a human being, first and foremost, and as such I’m for whoever and whatever benefits humanity as a whole.” —Malcolm X

Lenzabi's picture

This also brings to mind the grisly experiment of a frog placed in a pot of cool water, which is then heated up slowly, and it has no idea that things are going to get bad for it, and our idiots in charge from corporations, churches, and politically speaking (in many cases, all of the above, making it sound like all is well, just a little weather issues is all. The fact we elect stupid and insane selfish idiots who have the charm factor into office makes me think we picked a very stupid and broken system in the first place.

The ones running for office should never be the ones who want it, but those capable but usually avoid it pulled up via lottery to serve the nation and once done, they go back to their civil life and careers. The "popularity contest/horse races" which get over charged by the corporate news needs to be scrapped, they make people vote not on issues, or if the person has a clue, but how well they can be made to be seen as the best looking/sounding of the moron pack. Of course it is no help that they scaled back on education here in 'Murika, and tried for easily lead sheep herds who do actually vote by party affiliation as opposed to looking at the issues objectively with critical thinking, and get bamboozled into picking this 2 party "lesser of two evil" travesty we have.

Don, once again, thank you for helping to inform people, and show us what is going on. You sir, should have been part of the lottery chosen leadership in my opinion.

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So long, and thanks for all the fish