It was always about Brexit.

As much as Labour tried to change the narrative to austerity, what motivated the British public to give Upper Class Twit of the Year Boris Johnson and his fox hunting buddies a five year license to trample all over the British commons was Boris' clear stand in favor of Brexit.

brext2109a.png.
Open diamonds are flipped seats, which shows that nearly all of the flips from Labour to the Tories happened in majority Leave districts.

full chart here

Corbyn's straddling the center on Brexit was his undoing. If he had stayed true to his Eurosceptic roots, we might be looking at a very different outcome.

Instead, Corbyn tried to court Remainer defectors (who ended up defecting anyway) with a second referendum, which drove rural and working class voters in the North and Midlands straight into the jaws of the Tories.

brexituk219ab.png

To make matters worse, Corbyn tried to distract from his mistake by changing the subject to Progressive issues, which now gives establishment types on both sides of the pond the perfect if phony excuse to bash them as unpopular.

I like Jeremy Corbyn and certainly was hoping he would win, but there's no denying Labour made a fatal error by leaving the door open to Remaining.

Bottom Line: The UK just had its second Brexit referendum yesterday. There won't be a third.

Share
up
0 users have voted.

Comments

Not Henry Kissinger's picture

never wins.

up
0 users have voted.

The current working assumption appears to be that our Shroedinger's Cat system is still alive. But what if we all suspect it's not, and the real problem is we just can't bring ourselves to open the box?

Dawn's Meta's picture

France were sick of austerity pushed by the IMF, European Central Bank, admins at the EU. The banks had gambled with pension funds, treasuries of countries at the urging of Goldman Sachs and others, and they lost. So the unemployed and poor, working poor, middle classes of these countries had to bail out the banks and as a consequence the governments.

The same EU was trying to negotiate with corporations like Monsanto to provide the corporations a single point of negotiation which would drive down to each member country. The corporations certainly didn't want to have to work with each country to derive rules on unions, work rules, environment and ecology. Much easier if you get a friendly ear and push the agenda.

After the fiasco of Brexit, the leave talk in Europe has grown very quiet. Like Democrats, the call is reform from inside.

The unseen hands.....

up
0 users have voted.

A society grows great when old men plant trees in whose shade they know they shall never sit. Allegedly Greek, but more possibly fairly modern quote.

Consider helping by donating using the button in the upper left hand corner. Thank you.

Not Henry Kissinger's picture

@Dawn's Meta

The same EU was trying to negotiate with corporations like Monsanto to provide the corporations a single point of negotiation which would drive down to each member country. The corporations certainly didn't want to have to work with each country to derive rules on unions, work rules, environment and ecology. Much easier if you get a friendly ear and push the agenda.

should play a more important role in Progressive thinking, IMO.

Less power in more hands > more power in fewer hands.

up
0 users have voted.

The current working assumption appears to be that our Shroedinger's Cat system is still alive. But what if we all suspect it's not, and the real problem is we just can't bring ourselves to open the box?

Corbyn's straddling the center on Brexit was his undoing. If he had stayed true to his Eurosceptic roots, and made we might be looking at a very different outcome.

The Blairite wing of the party is a real thing, and they were strong Remain.
If he went all-in for Leave then he would have lost London.

The problem is now Corbyn will be forced out and another New Labour neoliberal will take his place.

up
0 users have voted.
Not Henry Kissinger's picture

@gjohnsit

If there was one good thing that came from this is that the few seats Labour did gain came from 'Independent' Blairites who left Labour in protest of Corbyn. So Labour is actually a more Progressive party than before (albeit with fewer members because of Brexit.)

Independent Blairites got clobbered and the Lib Dems as a whole fared little better.

They're a spent force and not worth kow towing to.

up
0 users have voted.

The current working assumption appears to be that our Shroedinger's Cat system is still alive. But what if we all suspect it's not, and the real problem is we just can't bring ourselves to open the box?

@Not Henry Kissinger
He fought the Blairites and the establishment over Brexit for two years, and I think he did the best he could.

It doesn't matter now because Corbyn will be kicked out and a New Labour neoliberal will take his place.
A couple years from now everyone who is kicking Corbyn about his Brexit position will be lamenting how neither party will stand up against austerity, pointless imperialist wars, and the gutting of the NHS.

Independent Blairites got clobbered and the Lib Dems as a whole fared little better.

They're a spent force and not worth kow towing to.

Corbyn will get 100% of the blame for this loss because that's how politics works.
The Blairites will declare that they were right all along, and the media will agree, because that's how politics works.
Big Money will make sure that Corbyn and his socialist movement is put down, because that's how politics works.

up
0 users have voted.
Not Henry Kissinger's picture

@gjohnsit

when they pander to the Neo-Libs:

1) They lose street cred with working class voters fed up with Globalism.
2) They waste resources because Neo Libs don't vote for them anyway.

Instead of trying to have it both ways, Corbyn should have made it very clear that Remain was off the table, but that he was the more sensible choice to implement a better and more humane Brexit.

That way Corbyn neutralizes Boris' Brexit advantage, and can then highlight Progressive policy advantages to siphon working class voters away from the fascists.

By contrast, worrying about the non-votes of snobby technocrats in the London suburbs who don't like him anyway is a terrible strategy - as the results clearly show.

up
0 users have voted.

The current working assumption appears to be that our Shroedinger's Cat system is still alive. But what if we all suspect it's not, and the real problem is we just can't bring ourselves to open the box?

@Not Henry Kissinger

Instead of trying to have it both ways, Corbyn should have made it very clear that Leave was off the table, but that he was the more sensible choice to implement a better and more humane Brexit.

I assume that you mean "Remain was off the table".
This wasn't far from Corbyn's actual position.

My question is: How many of Corbyn's critics will celebrate the return of neoliberal New Labour, which is probably only days/weeks away?

up
0 users have voted.
Not Henry Kissinger's picture

@gjohnsit

My question is: How many of Corbyn's critics will celebrate the return of neoliberal New Labour, which is probably only days/weeks away?

Give me a break. Criticizing an obvious political blunder doesn't mean I would celebrate a return to a Neo-lib run Labour party (not that I think that's going to happen anyway).

Or do you just have a problem with constructive criticism?

up
0 users have voted.

The current working assumption appears to be that our Shroedinger's Cat system is still alive. But what if we all suspect it's not, and the real problem is we just can't bring ourselves to open the box?

@Not Henry Kissinger
Socialism is dead in the UK for at least another decade.

I'm going to stop following UK politics now since it's about to become a black hole for hope.

up
0 users have voted.
Not Henry Kissinger's picture

@gjohnsit
It's just one small battle in a much bigger war. Learn and move on.

Besides, the Tories now own this Brexit mess lock, stock and Boris. They've got Scotland ripe for secession and the Americans breathing down their necks on Northern Ireland.

Be careful what you wish for.

Socialism is dead in the UK for at least another decade.

Again, the point I'm making here is that the UK result wasn't ABOUT Socialism. It was about Brexit, which is not the same thing by any stretch.

up
0 users have voted.

The current working assumption appears to be that our Shroedinger's Cat system is still alive. But what if we all suspect it's not, and the real problem is we just can't bring ourselves to open the box?

@Not Henry Kissinger

Besides, the Tories now own this Brexit mess lock, stock and Boris. They've got Scotland ripe for secession and the Americans breathing down their necks on Northern Ireland.

Northern Ireland is even worse than Scotland, because Hard Brexit makes a default hard border between EU-Ireland and Britain-NI.
Nobody wants that, and yet it is now inevitable. As is the violence that will come with it.

Yes, people will be getting killed again.

Again, the point I'm making here is that the UK result wasn't ABOUT Socialism. It was about Brexit, which is not the same thing by any stretch.

I wish you were right. I really do. But that won't be how it goes.

up
0 users have voted.
Not Henry Kissinger's picture

@gjohnsit @gjohnsit

If he went all-in for Leave then he would have lost London.

After a quick click on various London districts, I can't find a single seat Labour would have lost to the Tories - even if the Lib Dems got twice the vote they got yesterday. Maybe you can find one, but I can't.

The whole idea that Labour supporting Brexit puts London in play is balderdash.

Update: It appears the only district where Corbyn's Brexit stance might have made a difference would be Kensington (near Buckingham Palace BTW), but that flipped anyway.

Oh to lose the North AND the palace too!

up
0 users have voted.

The current working assumption appears to be that our Shroedinger's Cat system is still alive. But what if we all suspect it's not, and the real problem is we just can't bring ourselves to open the box?

an expert on UK politics, and only became aware there was an election coming up a few days ago, so very late on this one.

That said, how much of a political genius do you have to be to know to take a stand, one way or another, on the most important issue facing the electorate? How about, The voters have decided in a democratic process and I stand for Democracy; it's been 3 long years of dragging out implementation, the public is tired of the delay, and now it's finally time to get this done.

Instead, it was Corbyn standing for Indecision, Undecided, Fence-Straddling. Great choice. And as another poster noted, by taking the wishy-washy stance that didn't reflect the position of most voters, Labour gave away its advantage on economic issues.

As over here, voters there will choose strong even if wrong over weak even if right.

I do not see the lesson for Labour as a rejection of social-democratic policies and a need to return to Blairism and ToryLite policies. It should be someone principled and strong for the left who is better in tune with its traditional working-class constituents and their concerns over immigration and jobs. A younger more dynamic Labour leader is needed to do battle with BoJo. As a double breath of fresh air, they might check to see if they have any women in their leadership ranks who would fit the description.

up
0 users have voted.
Not Henry Kissinger's picture

@wokkamile

Instead, it was Corbyn standing for Indecision, Undecided, Fence-Straddling. Great choice. And as another poster noted, by taking the wishy-washy stance that didn't reflect the position of most voters, Labour gave away its advantage on economic issues.

Labour LET the Tories make Brexit the key issue of the campaign, and muddled their own economic message in the process.

As over here, voters there will choose strong even if wrong over weak even if right.

At some point too it becomes a question of trust. Leavers don't trust Corbyn on Brexit, so why trust him on other issues?

I do not see the lesson for Labour as a rejection of social-democratic policies and a need to return to Blairism and ToryLite policies. It should be someone principled and strong for the left who is better in tune with its traditional working-class constituents and their concerns over immigration and jobs. A younger more dynamic Labour leader is needed to do battle with BoJo. As a double breath of fresh air, they might check to see if they have any women in their leadership ranks who would fit the description.

Heh. Sounds like you are talking about Tulsi.

Whoever it is also needs to be a solid Brexit supporter.

up
0 users have voted.

The current working assumption appears to be that our Shroedinger's Cat system is still alive. But what if we all suspect it's not, and the real problem is we just can't bring ourselves to open the box?

@Not Henry Kissinger as I wondered while writing the sentence whether in fact Labour has ever had a female leader of the party. From what I see, it has only had a couple of acting female leaders, only for a few months at a time, placeholders until the party could convene to elect another proper male person to lead them.

I don't normally care much for dwelling on IdPol, however it needs to be noted that the Tories have had two of their female leaders become PM who governed over 14 years combined. Labour has yet to get on the scoreboard. I detect a gender gap.

I also detect a political competence gap, which is more important. After 10 years in power, I might have expected the Tories to at least have eeked out a much smaller margin of victory.

up
0 users have voted.
Not Henry Kissinger's picture

@wokkamile

I also detect a political competence gap,

They're all equally incompetent.

The Conservatives are just better at falling upward.

up
0 users have voted.

The current working assumption appears to be that our Shroedinger's Cat system is still alive. But what if we all suspect it's not, and the real problem is we just can't bring ourselves to open the box?

Cassiodorus's picture

This is the lesson that needed to be learned when SYRIZA capitulated in Greece in 2015. Corbyn needed to learn that lesson, too: he didn't, and now he's out.

At some point England will be like France is right now, except there's nothing like a Conservative victory to commit everyone to yay more capitalism and to forestall a chaotic outcome.

up
0 users have voted.

"Scab of a nation, driven insane" -- Frank Zappa

dervish's picture

@Cassiodorus but it will certainly be better off without the UK. They shouldn't have been let in in the first place.

up
0 users have voted.

"Obama promised transparency, but Assange is the one who brought it."

Not Henry Kissinger's picture

@dervish
Heh. Jacques Chirac agrees.

up
0 users have voted.

The current working assumption appears to be that our Shroedinger's Cat system is still alive. But what if we all suspect it's not, and the real problem is we just can't bring ourselves to open the box?

I wasn't aware of before:

So it appears the crafty BoJo engaged in some Clintonian triangulation, only to the left. Smart move. It made it easier for traditional Labour voters to vote Con. As an analyst elsewhere noted a while ago, BoJo is not the buffoonish clown to be underestimated, and his political smarts are likely to keep him around in power for many years to come.

Meanwhile the above tweet from MT underscores how this election was not about rejection of leftist policies, as we see how Boris embraced some important left issues to win for his party. So it would not seem to be a reasonable takeaway that Labour will learn to move right and will seek a Blair 2.0 in its new leader. Of course, like the Dems here, they are always capable of reverting to the safe well-trod path of centrism, so it's also possible they will badly learn the lessons from this election.

up
0 users have voted.
Roy Blakeley's picture

Voters' views on Brexit did determine the outcome of the election. From the moment the election was called, I had trepidation because traditional Labour voters were split on Brexit and any stand on Brexit would alienate a subset of potential labour voters. Keep in mind that Scotland which was solidly Labour not so long ago is strongly in favor of remaining in the EU. That being said, Corbyn's compromise stand pleased few and contributed in no small part to the defeat of Labour. Scotland went SNP almost uniformly. Labour lost constituencies in their traditional stronghold in the North and we all see what happened. Like Not Henry Kissinger, I would have preferred for Labour's position to be leave and negotiate better. For a start, a lot of the key points of the Labour manifesto aren't even legal in the EU.

All that being said, the Torries will be very bad. The election may have been about Brexit, but the next few years will be about much more than Brexit. They will be about allowing the oligarchs to loot the UK with little restraint. People may be pissed off, but the Tory majority is solid. Wit respect to the future of Labour, I doubt very much that the Blairites are a spent force. The UK media will certainly try to shove them down the faces of the Labour party. People at this site and other have a habit of celebrating the death of Neoliberalism. Intellectually, it certainly is dead (who can possibly make a case for it?), but that hardly matters, its a monstrous stinking zombie, with no beating heart but powered by greed, that continues to wreck our world.

up
0 users have voted.
Not Henry Kissinger's picture

@Roy Blakeley

Wit respect to the future of Labour, I doubt very much that the Blairites are a spent force.

within the Labour party.

Watson is the most prominent of a string of centrist MPs to leave Labour – or quit parliament altogether – since Corbyn took over his party in 2015. Others have included Tristram Hunt and Andy Burnham, now metropolitan mayor of Manchester. Owen Smith, who challenged Corbyn for his party’s leadership in 2016, has also said he will not stand again.

Part of Corbyn’s political project has always been to reshape the Labour party, and Watson’s departure is likely to cement the sense among some Labour MPs that that process is complete.

Whoever replaces Corbyn, it won't be a neo-lib because there aren't any neo-libs left in the Labour party.

up
0 users have voted.

The current working assumption appears to be that our Shroedinger's Cat system is still alive. But what if we all suspect it's not, and the real problem is we just can't bring ourselves to open the box?

snoopydawg's picture

When the nativist and Russia-backed Brexit referendum passed, Democrats should have taken much more seriously the possibility of a (also Russian-backed) Trump victory in 2016.

DON’T LESS RUSSIA MESS WITH OUR ELECTIONS!

Yep let's not forget that Brexit would never have passed if it weren't for the dastardly Russians. I guess they interfered with this election too since it seems to be a reformation on Brexit. Or something. But Russia....

up
0 users have voted.

"It is remarkable that a sitting president would express less than complete confidence in the American democracy’s electoral process."

Hillary: "I'd be president today if Comey, Bernie, Bros and Putin hadn't stolen it from me."

Not Henry Kissinger's picture

@snoopydawg

Now I'm confused.

up
0 users have voted.

The current working assumption appears to be that our Shroedinger's Cat system is still alive. But what if we all suspect it's not, and the real problem is we just can't bring ourselves to open the box?

dervish's picture

@snoopydawg they control every election now, worldwide, and they do it with just a few thousand bucks worth of FaceBook ads. They're truly amazing.

up
0 users have voted.

"Obama promised transparency, but Assange is the one who brought it."

Not Henry Kissinger's picture

'Devastated' Jo Swinson apologises to Lib Dems for election failure

Jo Swinson has apologised to the Liberal Democrats for a dismal election in which she lost her seat and the party slipped to 11 MPs, but said she did not regret fighting on a defiantly pro-remain platform.

Naming some of the MPs ejected as her party lost 10 of its pre-election tally of 21, including the Brexit spokesman, Tom Brake, and all the recent defectors from the Conservatives and Labour, Swinson said: “I’m so sorry I couldn’t get them re-elected.”

In a speech to party activists, Swinson said she had been an “unapologetic voice of remain in this election”. The stance prompted some criticism inside the Lib Dems, notably the pledge to revoke Brexit without a second referendum if the party won a majority.

“Obviously it hasn’t worked,” Swinson said. “And I, like you, am devastated about that. But I don’t regret trying.”

Their best days are long gone.

up
0 users have voted.

The current working assumption appears to be that our Shroedinger's Cat system is still alive. But what if we all suspect it's not, and the real problem is we just can't bring ourselves to open the box?

Until it does, it deserves all it gets. The most important thing in Britain or the US is a better life for all people. Labels like Socialism or Neo liberals are unimportant. A better life for one's kids and a secure retirement, all with health care is a necessity or it's pitchforks.

up
0 users have voted.