Impeach! Impeach? (Part 2)
Will Trump be removed?1 "Never say never," especially when the POTUS seems hostile to the COTUS and prone to scamming, among other things.2 And, as stated in Part 1, establishment media seems to be trying to get Americans to demand removal. On the other hand, members of the PPC (Politician Pundit Complex) are highly risk averse and continuously looking backward for a peck of potential political pitfalls they should avoid going forward. Looking back reveals that, in 228 years, we have had only two Presidential impeachments.3 That qualifies impeachment as a big funking4 deal and big funking deal votes tend to be big funking political risks.
At least in theory, the goal is not only impeachment by the House, but removal by the Senate. Voting to remove a President, especially one of your own Party, is an even bigger political risk than voting for impeachment; and Senators are supposedly even more conservative than members of the House. Moreover, the more recent impeachment backfired badly, perversely sinking the popularity of the impeachers, while lifting that of the impeached,5 not to mention that one of the impeachers felt compelled to resign.6
With the perverse outcome of the Clinton impeachment as relatively recent precedent, will risk-averse members of the House impeach again this soon? If they do, will the Senate vote to remove? Remember, these are the people who tell us that the left still can't have nice things because, forty-five ago, a liberal Democratic Senator lost an election that no one but Richard M. Nixon could have won anyway.7
Do Democratic pols even want Trump removed? Or does their self-interest lead them just to keep the I word on the lips of the PPC, or perhaps impeaching only to humiliate Trump and the Republican Party, but not removing? For the sake of discussion, let's assume removal is their sincere goal. Removal would get us, in this order, Pastor Pence, Speaker
Ayn R Ryan, Orrin Hatch or Secretary of Exxon State Tillerson. Is it worth it?
Whom would you rather see Presidenting in the near future--and running as an incumbent in 2020--one of those four, or Trump? (Scylla and Charybdis. squared.) And against whom would Democrats really rather run in 2020? Democrats collectively have devolved into a Party whose most persistent theme has been “Vote Democratic because Republicans are even worse.” If anything at all can breathe life and cred into that uninspiring message, it may be Trump’s antics.8
There is also the inconvenient truth that Republicans currently control both the House and the Senate. Ordinarily, that would make removal of a Republican President seem unlikely. Nonetheless, the PPC claim that some Republicans want to impeach Trump, which may be true. For the same reasons as Democrats may prefer that Trump remain where he is, Republicans may want him gone--especially if he damages or destroys Social Security and Medicare for them and the Democrats) before impeachment. But, will they risk the ire of those who voted for Trump in surprising numbers in Republican primaries because they were already fed up with establishment Republicans--like the ones in Congress who would be doing the removing?
Impeachment may or may not hurt or help Republicans and/or Democrats, but, this should be about ourlives, not the careers of our allegedly elected alleged representatives. Do we again want to pay for one Party's effort to humiliate the President of the opposing party, while neither Party is doing much productive for us or anyone else? Especially if the Senate does not convict? Do we want to be so cavalier about overturning elections that talk of impeachment begins on election night?
Only once has the U.S.A replaced a live President before the end of his term. Poppy Bush, then Chair of the Republican National Committee, simply had a heart-to-heart with President Nixon, who, ironically, had chosen Poppy for that post. I imagine that Poppy may have said something about having enough votes to impeach. Possibly, he also mentioned something about people being willing to testify against Nixon in a criminal trial unless he resigned. Perhaps Poppy even made Nixon, one way or the other. In any event, Poppy's chat accomplished what no impeachment to date has managed.
All things considered, should we leave bad enough alone, or should we go for the nation's first removal--and, if successful, end up with Pastor Pence as President? And, is impeachment where our focus really needs to be, especially only three months after a Presidential election? Finally, if our focus is on impeachment this soon into Trump's term, is there something else that we would be focusing on, if our attention were not on impeachment?
(ETA Orrin Hatch into the current line of Presidential succession. March 22, 2017
1 Disclosure: my views of President Trump: http://caucus99percent.com/comment/240890#comment-240890
2https://www.romper.com/p/can-you-sign-a-petition-to-impeach-trump-yes-bu... Allegations against Trump that implicate provisions of the Constitution are that he is anti--Muslim and misogynist, which would violate the Fifth Amendment (into which some Equal Protection principles have been subsumed) and that his conflicts of interest violate the Emoluments Clause. However, if Trump does get removed, my money is on the lawsuit for fraud and racketeering filed by those who enrolled in Trump University.
4https://en.oxforddictionaries.com/definition/funk Hat tip to NCTim
7 Among many other reasons Nixon was destined to win, Americans have never failed to elect a war-time incumbent. Please see this post and the replies: http://www.democraticunderground.com/12778825 However, the right wing of the Democratic Party still knee jerk memes McGovern's 1972 loss as the reason liberals cannot ever be nominated for President--or, these days, for almost any elective office.
8 Establishment forces have already been busy trying to making certain that what still remains of the left wing of the Democratic Party doesn't get any ideas from Hillary's loss to Trump. http://www.politico.com/story/2017/02/poll-trump-democrats-elizabeth-war...