How could the polls be so wrong?
We've all seen it.
I am so shocked, I am stunned that Trump won.
All those people were in a bubble, and that bubble got burst. But here's what those people ignored. Since May 2015, 39 Clinton Trump polls used in the RCP average showed Trump tied or winning.
Now granted, those 39 polls were in the minority. But 39 polls cannot be seen as inconsequential.
As a side note its so ironic that today, right now, Bernie Sanders is the most important, most powerful democrat in Washington DC. And hes not even a member of the democratic party. Buwaahahahahahaha. And Clinton's name is crap, so Bernie can go about his business.
Ellison Warned us 14 months ago.
Bernie wants Ellison, he'll get Ellison. I'm sure you noticed how Chuck Schumer and Elizabeth Warren followed with the same call for Ellison to be DNC chair. I know a lot of people here at C99 turned their back on Bernie after the convention for whatever reasons. The fact of the matter is that right now, today, Bernie is more powerful than Hillary in Washington DC.
We all knew the polls showed Bernie winning big over Trump, and Hillary, not so sure, but how many really thought it thru to the point where they understood that if he lost the primary and Clinton lost the general that would leave Bernie in the cat bird seat.
We must have the courage to take on the greed and power of Wall Street, drug companies, insurance companies and the fossil fuel industry.
— Bernie Sanders (@SenSanders) November 12, 2016
Millions of people are willing to put in 20 bucks, 30 bucks, 50 bucks, if there’s a Democratic Party to believe in.
— Bernie Sanders (@SenSanders) November 10, 2016
The Democratic Party has to be focused on grassroots America and not wealthy people attending cocktail parties.
— Bernie Sanders (@SenSanders) November 10, 2016
I teach people how to create and wield political power at its most fundamental level, how to run a campaign, how to be a candidate. I'm sure all of you reading this understand the importance of local races, especially state senate and assembly, but the vast majority of you have never run a campaign or run for office.
So put yourself in my shoes for a NY minute......and look at the membership here at C99.
Ya don't do enough.....
Hey.... I'm not saying you have to be my equal, I've been organizing my own personal "Our Revolution" for over a decade. Attend a camp Wellstone political training, Green, Indie, Dem, its time to run for Town Council or County Legislature.
Are you a Green Party member? Then run for Green Party leadership, maybe even State or National Chair. Learn how to party build and take over your state party, whether you're a Green or a Dem.
Tell me what you think if you've read thru to this point->
I think one of 2 things will happen, the least likely is that Trump and the GOP, given the keys to the car will pull a Thelma and Louise and drive the car off the cliff destroying the GOP worse than Clinton has destroyed the Democratic party. Far more likely is that Trump will enact a middle class tax cut, increase spending on infrastructure to create jobs and with the TPP DOA, get us out of NAFTA. If he does these things, the odds of Trump being reelected will go up significantly.
A door has closed, and a door has opened giving you a choice. I urge everyone here to dive into the deep end of the pool. Try it, its empowering.
Comments
I explained this even before the election
The polls sample a number of voters in certain demographics, but then they have to weight those samples into the final result. The weighting is done with a turnout model that, based on previous elections, guesses the participation of each of those demographic groups. Those turnout models are not equipped to deal with a massive drop in enthusiasm one one side. Democrats always rely on large turnout to win elections. If you run a candidate who is widely distrusted and has very low favorability against a candidate with very enthusiastic supporters, the models are bound to be wrong, so the polls will give an overestimation of Clinton voters.
In theory pollsters could attempt to correct for this, but we know the media and the pollsters they hire had their thumbs, and in fact their whole bloated asses on the scales for Clinton, continuing to project the arrogant inevitability meme. The Clinton gang either believed their own lies and got over confident, or knew it was over and tried to project otherwise by campaigning in, e.g., AZ in the final weeks. There may also have some degree of reluctance by those polled to admit to favoring Trump, since the Clinton identity cops were out shaming anyone who questioned her inevitability as racist misogynists. Their denial of the enthusiasm gap and merciless enforcement of their own bubble of propaganda led to shock among those who just believed PR mills like the NYT and WaPo.
Didn't this process start
before some candidates officially announced. I have the feeling of "the fix was in" so very early in the process. I do not know which grifter(s) were involved of course but there was some serious manipulation this time around.
Clinton was already
massaging and getting pledges from super-delegates before the primaries began.
"I can't understand why people are frightened of new ideas. I'm frightened of the old ones."
John Cage
Yes you did; I read and I learned. In the midwest the Carrier
firings made a huge impact even though there was little national coverage. What Carrier did was to tell wage earners, especially union wage earners, that they don't count; that they are expendable;and that suits in corporate skyscrapers want to get rid of you no matter the impact to you, your family, and your community.
Mass firings via a lousy cell phone hookup.
Incidents like this cause non-voters to vote and workers to vote for the only candidate who expressed some interest in their plight. That candidate was not HRC who made her views known on deplorables and dispensibles.
It's been hardly a secret among union officers that getting 60% of your members to support the candidates the officers feel are pro-worker is about the max in most circumstances. I bet the Carrier worker families came out to vote in high numbers.
"The justness of individual land right is not justifiable to those to whom the land by right of first claim collectively belonged"
I see you read the title
and maybe the first paragraph.
FDR 9-23-33, "If we cannot do this one way, we will do it another way. But do it we will.
I read the whole thing
but addressed the question in the title, which you did not really do. I found your lecture about increasing my participation uncompelling and your speculation about Bernie's power and Trump's behavior somewhat optimistic, though to be honest, I expect Trump to be motivated by narcissism rather than ideology, meaning he probably will do some of the things he said, and will try to curry favor with the voters rather than the usual GOP power brokers.
None of my family were polled in New England
I don't think I know anyone that was, very few are registered with either party mind you
The polls were biased toward Clinton.
Most polls were biased ~10 point towards democrats so of course Clinton was winning every poll. The MSM is so corrupt and people still think they are on the level. Please stop listening to them . They ARE the corporotacracy.
"Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho
SO you read my 1st paragraph
FDR 9-23-33, "If we cannot do this one way, we will do it another way. But do it we will.
I read the whole enchilada
A very good piece of political analysis.
I'm glad Bernie is taking advantage of the situation, though it's tinged with bitterness at the thought of what could have been if they (Clinton and the gang of corrupt elites in the Dem party and the media) hadn't effed him every which way from Sunday just to get HER the nomination.
Well "they" got the exact scenario for which they planned so assiduously for so long, and they still lost. Bubbleheads indeed.
Thanks for the read, Roger
Steve
"You can't just leave those who created the problem in charge of the solution."---Tyree Scott
Thelma and Louise
The Republicans became allergic to the common man after Teddy Roosevelt ran against them in 1912. They can't wait to impose their TEAvangelical Sharia Law on the American people, as their earliest victory boasts indicate.
Vowing To Oppose Everything Trump Attempts.
Thank you for reading the whole diary
FDR 9-23-33, "If we cannot do this one way, we will do it another way. But do it we will.
Thanks for this essay
And for this:
Yup. I knew he played the hand he had to play this spring, but it wasn't until this outcome transpired that I saw how brilliant he has been. He played the game to keep his seniority, and now he gets to be the voice and leader of the revolution coming to pass. We've got a heckuva road in front of us, but because of Bernie's example and leadership so far, we've got a fighting chance at pushing back successfully.
That's my take.
'What we are left with is an agency mandated to ensure transparency and disclosure that is actually working to keep the public in the dark' - Ann M. Ravel, former FEC member
Bernies path
would either lead to the White House or make Bernie the most powerful Dem in DC.
I'm sure many powerful party Dems have told him privately "You were right". And you know what, Bernie saw the same polls we did, he knew he would crush Trump, and he also knew Clinton might not win. And yet he campaigned for her knowing he was just biding his time until she lost.
Yeah Bernie did OK.
FDR 9-23-33, "If we cannot do this one way, we will do it another way. But do it we will.
I can read people's demeanor
to one degree or another and Bernie's distinctly changed in the lead up to the California primary. I've said it here several times, but I do believe that Bernie was ambushed and threatened very seriously (likely with the health of his family is my guess). There are plenty here who have said straight up that I'm conspiratorial to say this since there's no document (yet) in the public domain - they believe Bernie would have gone to the press if such an action transpired. Maybe it was only the threat that he would be denied his seniority and be marginalized (we actually DO know Schumer met with him to discuss his future before Philly). SOMETHING CHANGED - something which would have needed something powerful to change his demeanor that much.
My only evidence is that Bernie has a VERY long track record of consistency, and then overnight, he reversed himself and became their lapdog to one degree or another.
That said, he was VERY CAREFUL about his support for all things Clinton. His language was carefully crafted. Bernie can't get away with lying, so he had to say things he could actually believe to one degree or another. He went against them at the Convention when he conceded - they demanded language he did not give. That was interesting. They dissed Nina horribly in addition to him. Bernie danced their jig to keep his leadership role. Now that the election is behind us, they no longer have a leash on him. He lived to fight another day.
'What we are left with is an agency mandated to ensure transparency and disclosure that is actually working to keep the public in the dark' - Ann M. Ravel, former FEC member
I saw what you saw, MsGrin
And I wholeheartedly agree!
Something definitely changed in his demeanor, but what an outcome now that it's said and done.
Bernie taught me to see, not just look, and to hear, not just listen. He taught me to dig around and verify, not just gulp down what I'm being served. He not only let me witness a mini revolution, but let me get a taste of participation, $27 at a time, and talking about his policies every chance I got. He's a hero of mine, and I don't care what anyone says about it.
Still sporting my Bernie bumper sticker in Texas.
It occurs to me the election results
are the product of some kind of mass psychosis.
I was convinced that Clinton was going to win. What I believed was that there simply wasn't enough of a base in terms of sheer numbers that would vote for someone as vulgar as Trump. Combine that with my sense that there were far more TOP type voters out there perfectly happy with their willful ignorance -- the overconfidence of MSM encouraging them more so; to give her the Oval Office.
"I can't understand why people are frightened of new ideas. I'm frightened of the old ones."
John Cage
I applaud your honesty.
Do me a favor, don't let it happen again. But hey..... CLinton losing makes Bernie the most important Dem in DC.
FDR 9-23-33, "If we cannot do this one way, we will do it another way. But do it we will.
I voted for Stein
And Sanders in the primary.
"I can't understand why people are frightened of new ideas. I'm frightened of the old ones."
John Cage
me too
FDR 9-23-33, "If we cannot do this one way, we will do it another way. But do it we will.
Me three :-)
There is no justice. There can be no peace.
To be fair I thought she would win, too
But not based on the polls, based on election fraud. Some of that happened, especially the voter suppression efforts that the GOP is so good at, but I thought the Hill camp would do enough of their own to balance it out.
Mea Culpa.
I also think that when you have a media that effectively operates as a propaganda organ for the large (and getting larger) mega corporations and the elites they sustain, many, many people will be fooled by the line of bull they sell us. We were all taken in by that "Hope and Change" narrative too as I recall (well I was anyway). This time around a few more of us were awakened to the reality of our "democracy."
Hell, even Fox News were surprised that Trump pulled it off. So much Bullshit and lies to plow through, so little time to find the nuggets of truth buried within that load of crap.
I wasn't shocked Trump, won, but I was surprised. But then I'd watched a lot of his recent speeches and could see the connection he had with the people that came to his rallies. I just assumed the people who dumped all that cash on the Clintons would do everything in their power to ensure they got her in office. Maybe the effect of the wikileaks disclosures had a much greater impact on her true base - the "donors" - than anyone else. Who knows?
Or maybe when the high-end restaurants sell rotting meat and call it tenderloin steak over and over again, despite the stench, people finally say no, I don't want that shit anymore and go shopping elsewhere for dinner, even to the guy with the pushcart on the street with his overcooked hot dogs and stale buns, despite his coarse, rude and bloated opinion of himself.
"You can't just leave those who created the problem in charge of the solution."---Tyree Scott
Steve- Bingo
But then I'd watched a lot of his recent speeches and
with the people that came to his rallies.
FDR 9-23-33, "If we cannot do this one way, we will do it another way. But do it we will.
I was saying I believed BOTH possibilities were equally possible
1) that she would effectively steal it and win.
2) that his popularity was being underrepresented in the polls and that he would run away with it.
I really did not know which it would be.
'What we are left with is an agency mandated to ensure transparency and disclosure that is actually working to keep the public in the dark' - Ann M. Ravel, former FEC member
Your prediction sounds right to me.
In addition to your list above, I expect him to pull back the current US murder sprees around the world and cool it with that shit. I expect him to go rogue for Big diplomacy. I don't expect him to seek a second term.
Of all his consistent positions, his economic policies sound like they were written by a dope. If not for the timing of the release (right before the election, while scrambling to get everyone on board), I would be troubled. He apparently buys the junk economics of the think tanks, or he knows how to use it to successfully lure the know-nothing DC Republicans back into his circle.
____________________
The political system is what it is because the People are who they are. — Plato
Someone read the whole thing
cool.
FDR 9-23-33, "If we cannot do this one way, we will do it another way. But do it we will.
There's an audio discussion from the Intercept
where they discuss that Cheney's war consultants are now working for Trump. They expect more torture and drones and illegal mercenary yuck.
'What we are left with is an agency mandated to ensure transparency and disclosure that is actually working to keep the public in the dark' - Ann M. Ravel, former FEC member
Well, on that cheerful note….
I find a lot of peace in the fact that Trump is not an ideologue.
Torture? He'd expect to be paid well for such a service. He'd want to know which nation placed the order so he could structure the deal.
He's permanently off a few degrees from the unelected monsters who run the US government. They will never reel him in.
He's more like a nation unto himself than a politician.
This, I can live with. For now.
____________________
The political system is what it is because the People are who they are. — Plato
Well Roger, I do what I can.
Given my physical condition. It's not much but it's better than dropping out of it all entirely. I vote, I influence in my social circle and I speak online. Terribly little to be sure, but that's all I can give.
I won't be running for any office. I'm too old, too sick, and don't posses the patience or temperament for politics.
But I do have opinions.
Your second scenario is very much the most likely. I've taken talk of, if Trump wins he'd be a one term President, very skeptically. We could very easily be seeing 8 years of the Donald. As long as they avoid any major fuckups.
I couldn't help but notice that you left mention of Social Security and Medicare out of that second scenario.
Isn't what happens there going to decide if we see 4 or 8 years of Trump?
I know the name Roger Fox from online somewhere in the political bloggy things. Age and chemo brain are keeping me from bringing that memory/knowledge to my head at the moment.
It appears to me that you may be a little impatient, kinda like a lawyer or a teacher a bit exasperated with the slow class. Not saying that's a bad thing. So far I'm finding you informative, thought provoking and well, a bit entertaining. And that's all good.
I'm glad to see this Essay. I look forward to more of your thoughts
Thanks Roger.
With their hearts they turned to each others heart for refuge
In troubled years that came before the deluge
*Jackson Browne, 1974, Before the Deluge https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7SX-HFcSIoU
I'm impatient, rude, professorial, smartassed
I do like to throw a bit of facetiousness to keep it light.
Put your self in the shoes on a Trump voter and then read the above quote out loud.
FDR 9-23-33, "If we cannot do this one way, we will do it another way. But do it we will.
You're asking a lot there bud
I'm empathetic as all get out, but there are limits.
Well, I've thought all along that if Trump got 4, Trump would get 8.
All that's needed is the doing the other things you mentioned, and structuring and packaging the Social Security and Medicare dismantling to not hurt too much until after 2020.
I know that Republicans are not all stupid but the 'keep ur guverment hands off my Medicare' crowd is easily fooled.
I sure hope Hillary doesn't get pardoned.
With their hearts they turned to each others heart for refuge
In troubled years that came before the deluge
*Jackson Browne, 1974, Before the Deluge https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7SX-HFcSIoU
My leadership skills are very limited.
Abysmal, actually, that is the word, my leadership skill are abysmal. I am, however really great at being the lightning rod. Getting a diverse group to focus on a well defined aspect of the situation to apply the breaking point pressure, I am your man. As I have stated elsewhere, my successful efforts on local issues have not invested me with the necessary skill set to be effective in a larger venue.
I wonder how many others here find themselves similarly disadvantaged.
Assuming it happnes....
He'll give Progressive voters more of our agenda in one year than the Dems have given us in 40.
The current working assumption appears to be that our Shroedinger's Cat system is still alive. But what if we all suspect it's not, and the real problem is we just can't bring ourselves to open the box?
Shhh!
Let the Republicans think they voted in a real conservative!
Seriously, Trump has saner policies than Hillary who claimed to be Progressive.
I think the jobs would be his saving grace. If he can undo some of the NAFTA damage (amid likely corporate gnashing of teeth), and bring jobs to the basic family level unit, then he'll be swept into another 4 years by the power of the people. If people feel they owe their job to Trump's policies, I do believe that the next election they will be less inclined to believe or even listen to the corporate propaganda. The MSM may play only a sideline role in the future election.
I know, thats so sad
FDR 9-23-33, "If we cannot do this one way, we will do it another way. But do it we will.
Thanks for the essay, Roger.
You are right about Bernie, I think. I always knew he was cagey and smart. It about killed me when the evidence of election fraud mounted up during the primaries, and so many still wouldn't discuss it. Very painful to see that train-wreck coming, months ahead of the fact.
Sadly, I still can't be optimistic about the Trump White House. One possibility not mentioned much in the 4 vs. 8 year scenario, is how about President-For-Life? With all the repression he is committing himself to, I don't know that it would be that far of a stretch to contemplate.
Sad and threatening as Trump is, at least it buys us a few weeks before nuclear conflagration. I just hope that this paves the way for purging the neocon legacy from the Democratic Party.
I have been following Cassiodorus' essays on the possibility of a Third Party, too. You both seem very pragmatic about the problems involved. Yet it seems to me that if that New Party project were begun, it could be built to be more resistant to both autocracy and corruption. A new blueprint, if you will. Both major parties are products of the 19th Century. Society and technology have changed drastically since then. Trying to turn a Callistoga wagon into a modern sports car may just not be worth the trouble. Our democracy was one of the first prototypes on the planet. Like most prototypes, it can't hold a candle to later iterations of the same concept. I cannot imagine that no improvement is possible for our political parties, either.
I have restored antiques professionally before. Do you have a convincing argument for why this mangled duopoly mess needs to be saved? We won't know until we actually open it up, but this could get extremely expensive. In terms of time invested, it may take longer than we have.
My work schedule presently precludes a lot of political involvement. I don't like it, but there it is. I sometimes have a day, or a weekend off, and write here. Or I write and lose more sleep.
I would probably be a liability in politics, anyway, unless it were behind the scenes. I have written much, only covered my identity to the point where casual trolls probably couldn't suss me out, and I have not always watched my words.
What I do have is public speaking experience, a fair mind for strategy, and I am developing my understanding of propaganda, in the neutral sense of the word. I guess this would all fall under the current buzzword of "messaging".
I am more of a follower than a leader. I am less a people person than a system analyst and critic. I winnow chaff and bullshit equally well. And on those rare occasions when I can still get a platform, I can breath rhetorical fire. -And I am patient enough that I could teach others a few tricks on that front.
I voted Green in the General, but every single bit of Green propaganda was painful to watch. Jill Stein giving a reasoned, nuanced, quiet response to being labeled an "anti-vaxxer", when she should have gone directly on the attack, if for no other reason than to get airtime. Ajamu Baraka giving a very good speech, but on a street corner, at ground level, obscured by the tiny crowd he drew, through a megaphone that hid his face from the camera, competing with traffic noise the whole time. Ow, ow, ow. Their platform read like a bullet-pointed office memo, with the bullets turned off. OW.
In comparison, the Bernie rally I attended was an education. I actually wept, while simultaneously noticing how it was drawn out of me. Beautifully done. Patriotism without flag-waving, short to-the-point rhetoric that spoke to the reasons we all came there in the first place. Spreading resolve without hatred or fear. Hope and Change made real, this time. I think that may have been my first real experience of McLuhan's "hot" media. -Radiant, white hot, in this case.
Hell of rambling political cover letter, eh? I need to go sleep. Seriously, Roger, I wish I had more and better energy to give to this. This whole election season has been bad timing for me. Just when I want to make more of a difference, all I could afford was some phone banking and my little dollars. I'm not very effective this year. Maybe next year will be different. -If there is one!
"Capitalism is the extraordinary belief that the nastiest of men for the nastiest of motives will somehow work for the benefit of all."
- John Maynard Keynes
Bernie Sanders in 11th Dimensional Chess...
"Do you think he plans it all out or just makes it up as he goes along?”
[video:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ODXfOmtse_A]
Seriously.
Bernie's choice to "back" Hillary sure does look prescient after the loss, doesn't it?
I have little doubt he's the only "Democrat" with juice in Washington right now. Being a Team Player™ seems like it was a good political move especially if you thought she was gonna lose.
“Tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat.” ~ Sun Tzu
I think Sanders knew he would pound Trump
And Sanders knew that there was a very real chance that Clinton could lose.
FDR 9-23-33, "If we cannot do this one way, we will do it another way. But do it we will.
I had just assumed all along
that was WHY he ran to begin with.
He knew the stakes. He knew she'd lose And no one else stepped up to run against her.
I don't think Bernie ever spent much time dreaming about being President. Seems to me Bernie's thoughts have been of fairness, justice and helping his fellow human being.
Bernie ran for us.
With their hearts they turned to each others heart for refuge
In troubled years that came before the deluge
*Jackson Browne, 1974, Before the Deluge https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7SX-HFcSIoU