It's becoming increasingly apparent that the GOP will be running on a "tough on crime" theme, in response to a nationwide crime wave.
The other week I demonstrated that Defund the Police isn't actually a thing. Now let's look at the claims of a massive crime wave on our doorsteps.

Unlike Republican claims that "Defund the Police" Democrats have allowed thugs to take over our streets by disempowering cops, this claim isn't totally invented out of thin air. There has been a significant increase in murders.

Homicides are on the rise, but the increase started last year when Donald Trump was president. According to data compiled by the Major Cities Chiefs Association, the number of homicides rose 33% in 66 major cities in 2020 compared with 2019.

The increase has continued largely unabated since Joe Biden took office. In a report issued May 14, the Major Cities Chiefs Association reported a 29% increase in 63 major cities for the first three months of 2021 compared with the same period in 2020.

That is a massive increase in murders. So conservatives do have something to yell about.
But let's stop for a moment and consider what this isn't.

The rise is everywhere. It's not just US cities seeing a rise in murders.
"This is an American problem," said Jeff Asher, a Louisiana-based data analyst for AH Datalytics. He tracks murder rates in 72 cities and has seen a rise almost everywhere.
...
Most of the states with the worst homicide rates were in the South, although New Mexico, Alaska and Maryland had murder rates over 10 people per 100,000.
Where are the most murders? The South. According to FBI reviews of homicide data, the South as a whole routinely has the more homicides than other regions -- it had more than 48% of the country's murders in 2019, despite having a bit less than 40% of the nation's population, according to the Census Bureau.

So this isn't a Blue State/City thing.
Conservatives should ask themselves if Republican governors and mayors in Florida, South Carolina, and Texas are soft on crime first.

Another thing this isn't is a spike in the overall crime rate.

The homicide increase appears to be primarily driven by rising gun violence, with the nonprofit Gun Violence Archive reporting nearly 4,000 additional gun killings nationwide in 2020 compared with the year before.

But what’s happening with homicides is not part of some broader “crime wave.” In fact, many crimes, from larcenies to robberies to rape, dropped during the pandemic, and continued to fall during the first few months of 2021. “Crime” is not surging. Even the broader category of “violent crime” only increased about 3% last year, according to the preliminary FBI data from a large subset of cities. It’s homicide in particular that has increased, even as other crimes fell.

If this was about policy, then why aren't we seeing a spike in overall crime?

Lastly what this isn't is a reason to panic and return to 1980's style Tough On Crime laws.

The national murder rate of around five murders per 100,000 people in 2019 -- is about half its all time recorded high in 1980, when more than 10 Americans for every 100,000 were murdered.

The U.S. remains the largest penal colony in the world.