FiveThirtyEight Predictions--3 Weeks Until First Contest
Well, a mere 3 weeks until Iowa, DNC establishment tool FiveThirtyEight has some primary/caucus predictions, and you simply *won't believe* what they are predicting!
They have forecast the result of every state and territory in the US of A, and the results are:
Sanders wins: New Hampshire, Vermont, California
Warren wins: Massachusetts
Biden wins: Every other of the 46 states, all 5 territories, Democrats Abroad, and Washington DC
Iowa, where the latest polls show Sanders ahead or at least even? Nope--that'll be Biden. States where Sanders won against Hillary in 2016 (Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan, Washington, Oregon, Oklahoma, Alaska, Maine???)--nope all will go Biden. Colorado, Wyoming, Nebraska, Kansas, Idaho, North Dakota, and Montana, where Sanders also won in 2016? Those are so Biden states!
Hawaii, where Sanders also won in 2016, not to mention the home state of Tulsi--Biden will win that one for sure.
Did I mention Indiana, West Virginia, Utah, and Rhode Island where Sanders also won 2016? Forget about those--Biden will win 'em all!
American Samoa, where Tulsi is an actual Samoan? Biden, of course.
Virgin Islands--well . . . ummm, actually they probably will vote for Biden (*cough*).
I find it very improbable that Sanders wins California, the largest and most delegate-rich state in the Union, and that doesn't supercharge his campaign into additional wins. FiveThirtyEight does have Biden a very close second in the state--Sanders winning 133 delegates to Biden's 123.
Now, to be fair, they actually do *not* have Biden walking away with enough delegates to win the first round of voting at the convention. A candidate needs 1,990 delegates to win the first round, and FiveThirtyEight actually has Biden and Sanders close in most races, and shows Biden gaining only 1,503 delegates, with Sanders at 1,022 (Warren at 737 and Buttigieg at 506).
Let's see how FiveThirtyEight fares in 2020. I'm thinking they'll be in for some big surprises!