Feeling the Math

If we estimate the number of Dem and Reepo voters at 30% each leaving 40% for all Other of those participating (as opposed to eligible) voters and a reasonable estimate of 40% as the portion of Dems that support Bernie, then we arrive at an estimate of 12% of the American voting public who are Dems supporting Bernie. I submit that if one half of these voters refused to vote for $hillary, then she would lose the general election. And that doesn’t count the 20%+ of the participating voting public who identify as Other who also support Bernie. Shills are saying that Trump is a joke, etc. etc. and that she will beat him easily. I don’t think so. Her negative rating matches his, she is under investigation by the FBI, she made some highly questionable decisions as SOS, and her candidacy will energize the base Reepos like nothing else. I think that even with full Dem support for $hillary it would be close because the independent voters are just as likely to vote Green or Reepo as Dem in that case

In Presidential elections since 1960 (14 in total), we find that:
3 have been won with a plurality of more than 10%
5 have been decided by a plurality of 5-10%
4 have been decided by a plurality of 2-5%
1 was decided by a plurality of less than 1%
1 was decided with a negative plurality (guess who).

These elections were conducted by the party faithful trying to attract a majority of the independent voters. It does not in any way include the possibility of 40% of a voting base becoming disaffected. With one half of Bernie supporters refusing to vote for $hillary, she loses 6% of the voters participating in the American Presidential election. If you throw in one-half of the Other voters who support Bernie Sanders, she loses 9 out of 14 of the elections since 1960 and all of the elections since 1988.

We know that the popular vote is not the deciding factor. There is the Electoral College and then the House of Representatives behind them. Here the possibilities become endlessly beyond my ability to discuss. The commonly agreed upon (re: Wiki) “swing States” for 2016 are: Ohio, Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Virginia, and Florida. How many of these does $hillary win without significant support from Berners? How many states now considered to be safely Dem can she keep without half of the Berners (eg. Washington)?

In a hotly contested three-way race, the likelihood of one of the candidates gaining a majority of 270 Electoral College votes is not very good. The House of Representatives will most likely insist that the decision be made there. The Tea Party members will want to make that decision. However, a candidate can “release” their electors in the Electoral College stage and request that they vote for a former opponent as has happened in the past. Therefore, Bernie could run as a third party candidate and, if necessary, keep his pledge to keep Trump out at the Electoral College stage.

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NonnyO's picture

Her little explosion at Rachel Maddow "But I'm Winning!" and quoting her numbers tells me she's desperate to be president, she thinks "it's owed to her for losing to Obama, and it's her turn, dammit." I think it's partly a money thing with her. She saw what a cash cow it was to have other countries give the Clinton Foundation buku bucks when she did favors for them and they gave her money and both she and Bill want more of that.

The more money the Clintons control, the more control they have over getting more profits and being able to influence future elections; remember, they have enemy lists (!). Besides which, if they were in the White House, they could get their grubby little hands on papers and evidence from his previous administration and change history by having those papers (possibly evidence of crimes and cover-ups) destroyed, and/or any computer or taped evidence of same. There's something behind the signs of fear and desperation I see in their body/facial language, but I don't know exactly what it is.

After Bernie's presser on May 1, his math lessons, there are a lot of things that tell me the Clinton fear will ramp up their attacks of Bernie to ridiculous levels over the next six-seven weeks, and if they go to Philadelphia without confirmed delegates and/or superdelegates, all hell will break loose over the summer with more attacks before the convention.

Besides, Hillary is all pissy about the fact that Bernie said she would be the one to have to appeal to his voters to get them to vote for her if he loses to her; he wasn't going to snap his fingers and tell them who to vote for. Remember how huffy she was that that's not what she did in '08, that she got her voters to vote for Obama? Bernie is playing the adult card and making her be the adult to go after votes, not feeling sorry for her, and she doesn't like it one damned bit!

This amuses me no end. ROFL

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I believe in an America where the separation of church and state is absolute ..., where no church or church school is granted any public funds or political preference. — President John F. Kennedy, Houston, TX, 12 September 1960

WindDancer13's picture

Clinton-foreign.jpg

To another: I have no doubt that she knows someone with access to any voting machines that will be used in the next month and a half. (And, if it comes to that, in the general.)

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We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence, then, is not an act, but a habit.--Aristotle
If there is no struggle there is no progress.--Frederick Douglass

mjsmeme's picture

reasons for why the exit polls only match the vote if they favor HRC.

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thrownstone's picture

truly believes that it is all about her. Yet she is cunning as well and highly tuned in to what makes her look good. Even if she doesn't really believe that she has already won the candidacy, she knows that in order to get what she wants the most she will need us Berners. When threatened, she reacted like a Clinton, but now....why not be conciliatory? Yes, she did tell her voters what to do in 2008. But they were "her" voters...they were and still are. We are not Bernie's voters, we are his supporters and it is not all about him. PLUS: that was back in the old days when establishment politics had rules that BOTH parties followed: give in and get along and you turn will come. What makes her livid is that she has played by those rules and now that it is her turn half (almost) the Democrats don't care about the rules any more.

Hillary Clinton has triangulated herself right out of her own party and she is looking for someone to blame. If she blames Bernie, then she will not get support from his supporters. If she can fix the vote, then I am sure that she will try. Why not? It doesn't seem to matter if she gets caught. She can always argue that she had to do it to protect the world from Trump.

And, no, I don't see her releasing her electors in the College, but could see Bernie doing it.

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“Those who can make you believe absurdities, can make you commit atrocities.” Voltaire

Lenzabi's picture

If there were a 3-way, and then comey released the data and indicted her, she might be forced to give hers up to stop Trump while she goes to trial/jail. One can only hope, FEEL THAT BERN!

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So long, and thanks for all the fish

NonnyO's picture

Not even if she is indicted.

Comey is a Rethug. I don't see him indicting her until after the convention and before election day. I'm pretty sure he wouldn't want to give Bernie an advantage over Hillary, even if Bernie does win the nomination because the delegates assigned to $Hillary or given to her in spite of the fact Bernie won the popular primary votes.

If the delegates and super-delegates do find their consciences and vote for Bernie, that might finally give her a clue that it was unwise of her to run for prez again. It was a stupid move on her part. Her delegates and superdelegates may just go ahead and defect to Bernie on their own volition unless they are bribed with enough Clinton Foundation and/or corporate and/or banking/Wall Street money and have sure-fire ways of getting the e-voting machines hacked to favor her in a way that forensics detectives can't find. [I wonder when these states will figure out they need to go with paper ballots and optical scanners so that their paper ballots can be hand-counted if necessary. See Minnesota for an example; we have a history of close elections and recounts with laws in place to guide us, and we have paper ballots and optical scanners - we also have super-easy registration up to and including election day at the precinct with proof of residency.]

I suspect whether or not primaries and elections that are accurate and match exit polls hinges on the variance in exit polls with the voting totals. See the latest Redacted Tonight with Lee Camp that was just put on YouTube (26+ minutes):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TmYYvZASoks

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I believe in an America where the separation of church and state is absolute ..., where no church or church school is granted any public funds or political preference. — President John F. Kennedy, Houston, TX, 12 September 1960

Lenzabi's picture

True, she is a sore loser/winner. Just her reply to Rachel Maddow showed her poor sport attitude.

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So long, and thanks for all the fish