DNC Posts Rules for November Debate--Tulsi Might Make October Debate Tomorrow

Tomorrow, Monmouth will release their latest New Hampshire Poll. They have not conducted one in the state since May, but this is Tulsi's strongest state, and besides a CBS/YouGov poll where she polled at only 1%, there have been 5 other (non-qualifying) polls in the state since the beginning of August where she has polled at 3% to 6%.

If this Monmouth poll has her at 2% or more, Tulsi makes the October debate.

Monmouth has been one of Tulsi's toughest pollsters, however. In May in New Hampshire, Monmouth showed her at 0% in the state. Monmouth typically polls a very low number of people and has a very high margin of error (sometimes in the 6% range). Still, Tulsi is doing so well in New Hampshire nowadays, I'm hopeful this will be the poll that gets her over the top. Her latest poll in the state, which ended 12 days ago, showed her at 6%.

The DNC, in the meanwhile, has come out with requirements for the November debates.

--165,000 individual donors (Tulsi already has reached this level)

--3% support in 4 national or early-state (Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Nevada) polls from qualified pollsters; or

--5% support from 2 polls in those same early states (presumably from qualified pollsters, although the NYT doesn't actually say that)

--The above polls have to be taken from Sept. 13 until midnight 7 days in advance of the November debate (the date of which has not yet been set)

--600 unique donors in each of 20 states (guessing Tulsi has this already)

Once again, for Tulsi to have a shot at meeting those requirements, she probably needs to do something notable at the October debate (and actually get in there), and keep up her ground game in the early states--especially Iowa and New Hampshire--where it is showing good results.

In Saturday's Iowa poll that gave Tulsi her 3rd qualified poll, Elizabeth Warren overtook Biden for the first time in Iowa polling. Biden is starting to look shakey.

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(There’s always a “but”), I listened to a Niko House bit that argued she has, by the DNC’s own rules, already made the debate. That one about which the DNC said “uh uh, that don’t count”, per House, DID count.

Which suggests that, even if she reaches the threshold in the Monmouth poll, the DNC will devise a way to disqualify it.

I really, really want to be wrong about that, but then the whole thing is such a scam that I’d also welcome anything that would bring it crashing down. Alas, I have no idea how that could happen.

P.S. I understand that there will be FEWER qualified pollsters for the November debate.

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I figure that every debate she can land, the more she will be able to get her word out. It's all better than if not.

We'll see.

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Alligator Ed's picture

I wonder whether it actually might be to Tulsi's advantage to continue contesting her privilege of speaking in a debate (or debates) even if she was excluded by DNC tactics. There is no way she will ever overcome the DNC machine to win the nomination. But her public struggles against the DNC will remind voters vividly what the DNC did to Bernie. This allows Tulsi to attain even higher elevation on the moral high ground, always an advantageous position, whether attacking from or defending. Unlike Bernie, she will not go with the flow if that means supporting AnyBlueMustDo. 2024 might be early for her nomination, but, like Mike Gravel predicted, she will be president.

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Not Henry Kissinger's picture

are the new superdelegates.

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The current working assumption appears to be that our Shroedinger's Cat system is still alive. But what if we all suspect it's not, and the real problem is we just can't bring ourselves to open the box?