Dissecting 435: The Need for Change

The 2016 election saw Donald Trump win against Hillary Clinton with an unexpected victory, with Trump scoring 306 Electoral College votes compared to Clinton's 232. With that victory however, comes the dissenting cries as Clinton won the popular vote by roughly 2 million votes. This has sparked a wide number of debates, ranging from the issues of democracy, the need to scrap the Electoral College, overturning the Electoral College, illegitimate wins, and more. There are some arguments that need to be confronted head on, while one of the more salient arguments has been ignored. That is how the Electoral College is structured to begin with.

The Electoral College gives each state a value, which is the number of Senators + House Reps. Thus, the bare minimum a state may have is 3. Now, before we go further, there is one argument that needs to be squashed right out of the gate. Some pundits, and even some of the general public, attack each state having two senators, stating that sparsely-populated Wyoming gets the same number of senators as booming California. The aforementioned, oft-neglected sibling known as the House of Reps gets ignored once again as people miss the fundamental structural difference between the House and the Senate.

The Senate is based on each state, regardless of population, to have an equal stance here in the United States. Each state is granted two senators. The House of Representatives, on the other hand, is based off of the population of a state. Wyoming, for instance, has one House Rep, while California has 53. This bicameral system is meant to balance the population of each state and the equal standing of all states.

Now, a vigorous debate can be had on the system of direct democracy vs. the Electoral College. This isn't meant to dive into those particulars; rather, this is meant to understand an invisible deficit occurring in the current Electoral College System. That deficit is within the House of Representatives.

Over the decades and decades of American history, the House of Representatives would increase depending upon the new census taken. This kept true with the spirit of what the House of Representatives was meant to be: a system based off representing population totals in each state. However, the 20th century halted the gears of the House of Representatives, and now as the population continues to steadily grows, the House of Reps is now frozen in stasis.

The Apportionment Act of 1911 and The Reapportionment Act of 1929 established a permanent hold of 435 House of Representatives.

Usually, the House reapportioned itself in a manner that increased, or at least preserved, the representation of most states. Gradually, however, the method for calculating apportionment caused smaller rural states to lose representation to larger urbanized states. A battle erupted between rural and urban factions, causing the House (for the only time in its history) to fail to reapportion itself following the 1920 Census. Signed into law on June 18, 1929, the Permanent Apportionment Act capped House Membership at the level established after the 1910 Census and created a procedure for automatically reapportioning House seats after every decennial census.

So with fear of losing seats due to redistricting, these Acts were enacted to preserve politician's seats instead of following the system in place that had been used for decades upon decades. With the House of Representatives frozen at 435, it crippled one of the fundamental aspects of the House of Representatives existence: representing population shifts. More and more populated states, as their populations continued to grow, did not see the increase in the number of Representatives allotted to them. Furthermore, because of the House of Representatives being locked in place, that also hampered the Electoral College's ability to reflect the system it was designed for.

One potential solution is utilizing the Wyoming Rule. The Wyoming Rule is a proposal to increase the House of Representatives by using a ratio of the smallest state as the base value in determining seat allocation, in this case, Wyoming. Wyoming has a population of approximately 586,000 people. Under our current system, California has 53 Representatives with a population of 38.8 million. Under the Wyoming Rule, California would gain 13 seats, totaling 66 Representatives. Not only would this system become more representative of the growing populations decade after decade, but would also unleash the Electoral College to fulfill the role it was designed for. California would go from 55 Electoral College Votes to 67. In total, under the Wyoming rule, a new total of House Reps would be 545, an increase of 110 Representatives as well as updating the Electoral College values.

Once more, updating the House of Representatives to be more representative of the continually growing population, as well as changing the Electoral College values, does not change the potential discourse between direct democracy and the Electoral College system. However, this conversation should only be had when the actual potential of the Electoral College is utilized and people can accurately look at the data, instead of the frozen Electoral College we have in place today. Also, while decreasing the population-to-representative ratio in larger states to be more proportional of the people they are meant to represent, it is not necessarily the entirety of the changed needed in our current political system and atmosphere. The forces of legalized corruption, money in politics, corporate takeover, gerrymandering, and more work against the actual people these Representatives are meant to uphold. Nonetheless, changing this current paradigm of 435 can help alleviate at least some of the numerous ills that plague our system.

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TheOtherMaven's picture

as two more whole states (Alaska and Hawaii) had been added, further screwing the balance of things. But no, they just robbed Peter (the existing states) to give to Paul (the new states).

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There is no justice. There can be no peace.

k9disc's picture

In 1910 we had 92M people. 435 representatives.

We now have 325M.

Seems to me we should have about 1305 representatives.

That, IMO, is the elephant in the room. The number of reps based upon your interpretation of the rules of the Apportionment Act, 545, is still completely unable to represent a population of this size.

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“Tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat.” ~ Sun Tzu

Strife Delivery's picture

There are various ways to tackle the issue. One that seems popular in that it is mentioned enough times is the Wyoming Rule. You are right, you could follow a method you just described:

With 92M people and 435 representatives, that is about 211,500 people, roughly, per representative.
So yes, with our current population of around 325M, we would have over 1500 House Reps (actually not certain where you got the 1305, you'll have to show me).

With something like the Wyoming Rule, since the smallest state requires at least 1 Rep, it is a nice baseline to use. 1500 House Reps would perhaps be unmanageable, I don't know. I'm trying to imagine the country at 400 million or 500 million here. 500 million would give us over 2300 House Reps. But, regardless, the current system imposed upon the House of Reps not only stifles the House of Reps, but also harms the EC. While the Wyoming Rule is one route, the main goal is just to hopefully open up dialogue on the issue.

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k9disc's picture

comment. But then I thought HI and AK were fairly negligible, so...

I think your inability to imagine the larger number of reps is a remnant of having a clique based ruling class and simple convention. What is the problem? Why would it be difficult to work with a thousand or two reps? I mean, we vote in those numbers all the time. How would it be different than putting 250,000 votes together for the rep in the first place?

With a larger number of congresscritters the social ties between representatives get tenuous and non-committal. Right now, with 200 fellows and 400 peers, the social connections between representatives are far stronger than the social ties between reps and constituents -- it's a pretty elite group that have more in common with each other than with their constituents. Getting that number up to a thousand or so breaks the social ties between representatives. Breaking those social ties, or weakening them dramatically, could be a tremendous boon to democratic representation.

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“Tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat.” ~ Sun Tzu

I want a direct vote - one person, one vote, and screw them. With the technology that exists today, we should be able to vote on referendums. Do we go to war? Should pot and abortions be legal? Is Trump really the President? I am sick of the whole shebang. They no more represent me than the door knob on my closet door.

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"Religion is what keeps the poor from murdering the rich."--Napoleon

k9disc's picture

protect us from mob rule.

I like the idea of representatives having the ability to protect us from our uglier impulses and kneejerk reactions. Not that they should exercise that on a regular basis, but that ability is key, IMO.

I look to social media and see the uglier parts of direct Democracy in action.

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“Tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat.” ~ Sun Tzu

Strife Delivery's picture

It's not necessarily an inability to imagine it on my part, more I guess just the sudden leap. By no means am I against it, I wouldn't mind that system of having say 1500 Reps. Just going from 435 to 1500 is just merely an initial shock, nothing more. Suddenly tripling the number of Reps we have would definitely open the floodgates, and hopefully in a good way as we have more average people stepping forward, instead of handpicked people. Apparently also, one of the reasons for 435 that I didn't include in the essay was that there wasn't anymore room than that for more members in the Congressional Hall. That seemed like quite a lame excuse to me. But again, I am in agreement with you, hopefully the more representatives we had would trickle back to having ties with the actual community, instead of a clique of "Representatives". They are meant to be individual Representatives of their district, not a class of all Representatives.

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If you do the Wyoming solution, and have every state allow proportional election of electors then you will have a far more democratic electoral system. I think that this system would be constitutional as each state has the authority to decide how to select the electors. The Wyoming solution is subtle but I think very much more democratic.

I don't know about election of senators. This would seem on the surface to be very undemocratic. The Senate would seem to be dominated by under populated states. This was necessary to sell the Federal model to the states. Does it now make sense?

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Capitalism has always been the rule of the people by the oligarchs. You only have two choices, eliminate them or restrict their power.

If the Electoral College were eliminated, by changing the Constitution, wouldn't we then be more likely to be electing the President based on the population of the mostly elites based on each coast?

Seems a big part of the Clinton failure, for which I'm grateful, is their deliberate disregard of MI, WI until it was too late. Think it was called their "Blue Wall." Feel sorry for Robby Mook having to deal with all the dissenting factions - with 30 years of pandering, there were/are too many voices demanding to be heard, after all, they "paid" for their seats Smile

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edg's picture

Holding all else static, what would have been the 2016 presidential result if your plan were in effect today? Would Trump still be the winner?

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Strife Delivery's picture

Had to bust out the pen and paper here to keep the numbers all straight. So under our 538 system we have today, Clinton got 232 to Trump's 306.

If my calculations are correct, The Wyoming Rule set would give 545 Reps + 100 Reps + 3 for DC which gives us 648. So to win, you need 325.

With this system, Clinton pulls in 280 EC votes compared to Trump's 367 (+1 to either side as I can't find my error as multiple recounts) for a grand total of 648. If someone wants to double check my numbers, please do.

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Like they had for all the non-slave, male citizens of Athens, but for everybody this time.

A free, open, solar and wind powered, publicly financed internet. Consign the boob tube to history.

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Beware the bullshit factories.

One of Trump's first targets is the Internet. He's named several people to positions of influence over its regulation who are enemies of net neutrality. The costs of having even the most basic service will rise dramatically, and will likely be metered based on how much you use it. They will also begin deciding which sites We the People will be allowed to visit.

So unless your last name is Gottrochs, you are going to reach a point where you have to decide whether the Internet is worth the economic sacrifice. The rich have to eat, you know!

We here at C99 just might find ourselves restoring the Committees of Correspondence, assuming we can afford the cost of mailing once Fedex is given what remains of USPS.

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Vowing To Oppose Everything Trump Attempts.

Hasn't TPP-pushing Obama already handed over control of internet Domain Names to 'public/private' control? Would the TPP-pushing Clintons have protected the public against their big donors, the billionaires and corporations the TPP effectively hands over global control of domestic law in democratic countries to?

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Psychopathy is not a political position, whether labeled 'conservatism', 'centrism' or 'left'.

A tin labeled 'coffee' may be a can of worms or pathology identified by a lack of empathy/willingness to harm others to achieve personal desires.

away from Comcast, ATT, etc. Wasn't the ability for connections to find different routes the original intention when Arpanet was created by the military?

How are people supposed to read Trump's outrageous tweets if the internet sucks?

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Beware the bullshit factories.

They will be reported as official communications by I Heart Radio and other reich-wing media assets.

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Vowing To Oppose Everything Trump Attempts.