Death rattle of the frackers

Two years ago the shale oil fracking industry was on top of the world.
Oil was expensive and the frackers were riding a decade-long boom. The United States have surpassed Saudi Arabia in oil production for the first time in half a century.
The only party-poopers were environmentalists, who complained about poisoned ground water and earthquakes, but no one was going to let them stand in the way of progress.

Around that time I posted a diary that basically said the numbers don't add up.

Fracking is a capital intensive operation. It isn't just a matter of dropping a straw in the ground and sucking up the oil.
   Already fracking companies are going bankrupt.

 It’s bad enough to be spending more and more to generate ever less growth. It’s worse when that growth doesn’t even translate into profits....This led to a 58% decline in after-tax profits in 2012 over 2011.
But it must be said that when you take into account all the costs incurred in acquiring and developing unconventional oil fields today, many plays are already balanced on the knife-edge of profitability, and any down draft in oil pricing could dry up activity real quick.

Shale oil has a much shorter lifespan than traditional oil fields.
It doesn't take an economics major to see how this is going to play out. Production will soon start falling and drillers will go backrupt.
Of course there will always be another shale field to exploit. However, if the next shale field was so rich and easy they would already be drilling it.

A couple months later, after I did more research, I called out the fracking industry as a "con job".

 Of 61 fracking companies their debts have nearly doubled in the past four years while their revenue has increased just 5.6%.

  This is the second-to-last step in a investment bubble. The last step is when those companies have to borrow just to pay the interest on existing debts. Judging by the charts above, that day will arrive soon.

That day arrived even sooner than I would have guessed, as oil prices crashed by more than half.
Now, two years later, its time to pay the piper.

Creditors of energy exploration and production companies that went bankrupt last year recouped less than half the usual amount for their claims, and 2016 is shaping up just as bad, according to Moody’s Investors Service.
Recovery rates for 15 U.S. E&P bankruptcies averaged a “catastrophic” 21 percent last year, well below the historical average of 59 percent, Moody’s said in a report released Monday. Senior unsecured bondholders were hammered even more, averaging just 6 cents on the dollar. Collectively, the debacle could be worse than the telecom industry’s collapse in the early 2000s, measured by both the number of companies that go bust and the recoveries, Moody’s said.
...Bankruptcies in the sector thus far this year are already about twice 2015’s total, according to the report.

recovery_0.png
All through 2015 and early 2016 'zombie' frackers were kept alive with cheap and easy credit in the hopes that oil prices would rebound. In fact, 2016 was the year that everyone predicted the oil supply glut would end.

Such exchanges — defined by Moody's Investors Service as when a troubled company offers its lenders new or restructured debt, securities, cash, or other assets, that amount to a smaller commitment than the original IOU — could have big implications for debt markets as they stretch out the current credit cycle and result in even greater losses for investors.
The trend is most apparent in the energy sector where oil and gas companies have been deploying a raft of creative measures to stay afloat amid lower crude prices that have crimped profits and threatened their survival.

All things considered, it's amazing how long they've kept these companies afloat. Most of them should have been shuttered long ago.
Many people were convinced that creative financing could overcome the laws of supply and demand, and that eventually oil price would climb back up and no one would have to pay the price for these bad loans.
Then the news came out today.

The surplus in global oil markets will last for longer than previously thought, persisting into late 2017 as demand growth slumps and supply proves resilient, the International Energy Agency said.
World oil stockpiles will continue to accumulate through 2017, a fourth consecutive year of oversupply, according to the IEA. Consumption growth sagged to a two-year low in the third quarter as demand faltered in China and India, while record output from OPEC’s Gulf members is compounding the glut, it said. Just last month the agency predicted the market would return to equilibrium this year.

oversupply.png
Remember how I pointed out in 2014 that fracking wells have a short lifespan, and consider that drilling new wells was the first thing frackers stopped doing when oil prices crashed.
Well now, the laws of geology are catching up with the frackers.
Bakken-Field-Oil-Production-Sept-2016.png
Texas-Eagle-Ford-Oil-Production-Sept-2016.png

Even if oil prices shot up tomorrow, oil produced by frackers would continue to decline into 2017.
With less and less oil being produced, frackers will have less money to pay their outstanding debts that they already can't pay.

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MarilynW's picture

but after its death I worry about its legacy and I don't mean financial legacy. What about all those thousands of wells, will they still effect the water tables. How about all those injection sites, will the poisons still harm the environment?

BTW do you have any figures for British Columbia, Canada. We also have thousands of wells here, many in pristine wilderness. Some pristine Northern lakes have been seriously depleted to supply the enormous amount of water the frackers use.

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To thine own self be true.

Meteor Man's picture

Thanks for the clear presentation and update gjohnsit. I've been following the slow motion trainwreck known as fracking at Naked Capitalism, The Wolf of Wall Street (Wolf Richter) and David Stockman's Contra Corner (which features Zero Hedge and yes it is that David Stockman).

A quick Google search found an April 2016 article that also wondered how long The Tracking Zombie could remain standing:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/uhenergy/2016/04/28/is-it-1987-yet-the-frack...

However, there are at least two dimensions in which this fracking bust is much worse – the speed of the fall in drilling activity and the decline in total capital spending for exploration and production. This downturn has come much faster and harder than any other.

The big question is who will pay for the bailout; stockholders, pension funds or taxpayers?

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"They'll say we're disturbing the peace, but there is no peace. What really bothers them is that we are disturbing the war." Howard Zinn

Alphalop's picture

The big question is who will pay for the bailout; stockholders, pension funds or taxpayers?

Well, Taxpayers obviously.

Privatize the profits, socialize the losses and call everyone who's life you destroyed, "Filthy Takers" for needing financial assistance.

You know, The American Way....

{sigh}

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"I used to vote Republican & Democrat, I also used to shit my pants. Eventually I got smart enough to stop doing both things." -Me

Socialism has come to America. We socialize corporate losses. Profits? Those are almost 100% privatized.

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Democrats, we tried to warn you. How is that guilt and shame working out?

to know how many jobs were created and lost or about to be lost by the fracking industry. Not that I'm for fracking to create jobs, I just think it is another part of the problem.

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Raggedy Ann's picture

lost here in New Mexico. Southeast, New Mexico was in an oil boon. Our state budget was passed on their best guess of what the average price of a barrel of oil might be for our fiscal year; the main revenue in our budget, anyway.

The price was below predictions last year, and the governor is loathe to call them into special session and raise any taxes. We are operating in deficit. The drama continues.

We will be in the same situation for this year's budget if they don't address it either. Governor Susanna Martinez is not leading New Mexico well.

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"The “jumpers” reminded us that one day we will all face only one choice and that is how we will die, not how we will live." Chris Hedges on 9/11

I say - yeah, but so does drug dealing. Ironically, in Colorado at least, pot legalization will make up for the tax revenue and the employment sag.

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Democrats, we tried to warn you. How is that guilt and shame working out?

Lenzabi's picture

Damage is done.

Even if they do run dry, many wells and ground water supplies are now unfit to drink.
States not known for earthquakes have them now.
People have had their health damaged by the leaked chems and gasses released such Hydrogen Sulfide.
Methane has been released at a faster rate into the environment.

And now they seek to chase the same ideas across the globe.

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So long, and thanks for all the fish

spending $3.8 billion for that pipeline across ND?

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native

thanatokephaloides's picture

Why then, are they spending $3.8 billion for that pipeline across ND?

A small tweak in your verb tense provides the answer.

The commitment to spend that $3.8E+09 was made back in the days when everybody thought oil would remain at $125+ a barrel forever and ever amen, pass the potatoes please. Smile

By the time the pipeline actually got to ND, that money was already borrowed and committed for; in essence, already spent.

The reason the North Dakota Native American Nations still feel they can stop the pipeline is the very set of facts gjohnsit brings up. The Native Nations know that the pipeline's builders and owners are under massive economic pressure to abandon the project and cut their losses. And that's exactly what the Native Nations want them to do.

Smile

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"US govt/military = bad. Russian govt/military = bad. Any politician wanting power = bad. Anyone wielding power = bad." --Shahryar

"All power corrupts absolutely!" -- thanatokephaloides

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native

snoopydawg's picture

pipeline, this one was being built without anyone paying attention to it.
The part that they are trying to block is just a small part of the whole pipeline.
And of course if the TPP passes then you can bet that this company and the banks that are funding it will sue under the ISDS aspect of the TPP.
Just as the owners of the Keystone pipeline are either doing or threatening to do.
And if fracking was stopped tomorrow there has been so much damage already done.
Thousands of people have wells that are contaminated, rivers and lakes are contaminated and then there's all those fracking ponds that will be abandoned. Like the one in Colorado that the army corps of engineers accidentally broke and it got into the rivers of many states.

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Which AIPAC/MIC/pharma/bank bought politician are you going to vote for? Don’t be surprised when nothing changes.

Raggedy Ann's picture

I believe you are referring to an old mine, where old mine waste and tailings, including heavy metals and toxic elements were released when the plug holding the water, was breached. It is the 2015 Gold King Mine incident. Colorado, my state of New Nexico, Arizona, and to a degree, Nevada and California were affected. When will we know the true consequences? Probably years from now.

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"The “jumpers” reminded us that one day we will all face only one choice and that is how we will die, not how we will live." Chris Hedges on 9/11

thanatokephaloides's picture

...... is also in Colorado, between Glenwood Springs and Grand Junction on I-70.

The Rulison Project was an attempt at nuclear fracturing of shale, for gas. Gas was indeed obtained, but our great-grandchildren's great-grandchildren will be long dead before the radioactivity has died down to the point where the gas is useful commercially.

Bad

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"US govt/military = bad. Russian govt/military = bad. Any politician wanting power = bad. Anyone wielding power = bad." --Shahryar

"All power corrupts absolutely!" -- thanatokephaloides

Tue, 09/13/2016 - 6:17pm — snoopydawg

... And of course if the TPP passes then you can bet that this company and the banks that are funding it will sue under the ISDS aspect of the TPP.
Just as the owners of the Keystone pipeline are either doing or threatening to do. ...

What do you want to bet that this is why the frackers are hanging on, to recover their money and anticipated profits by draining the public in all involved countries through the TPP (and other corporate coups)?

Because once the TPP et al goes through and the en masse corporate suing of the people of each involved country begins, almost nobody in these countries will have any money for anything and the complete lack of protections for people, animals and the environment demanded under (illegal, unconstitutionally) offshored corporate law will ensure that the rampant disease and dysfunction among the population due to unlimited industrial pollution and the lack of any safety requirements for air, water, consumables and other products, workplaces, etc. will create an overall perhaps initially slow but rapidly worsening human and ecological disaster within each involved country (and affecting the rest of the world in each case) especially as the already-snowballing global die-off of life/the natural life support system and reducing oxygen kicks into high gear for radical worsening well prior to previous predictions. Once a high percentage of countries are treated just like poisoned China, and also billowing pollution around the world, the global death-spiral will be appallingly fast.

This is evidently the looting phase of the barbarian horde too ignorant and greedy to see that they're killing off not only the golden goose they'd once profited from but the means of life on the globe for themselves as well. There will be no paradise remaining anywhere on Earth for any of them, either. And money is only a symbol which is worthless when there's nothing left to buy or sell and very few others remaining to make the attempt or willing to part with any of their own perhaps irreplaceable supplies in a dying/dead world tormented by megastorms, earthquakes and other climate issues likely wrecking internal life support systems, if they haven't glitched already, leaving them with unbreathable outside air and undrinkable water they've manufactured globally themselves to increase their now unusable data-dots. They're ultimately not going to be any happier with the results than we were, before we all died to leave them with mountains of what will be billions of rotting corpses and no large scavengers to clean them up for them. (The countries will be bankrupted by corporate/billionaire lawsuits, the underpaid/unemployed poor will be unable to pay taxes while dying on the streets, and they'll hardly bury us on their own dime, after all.)

The Bush admin apparently thought that wanting a different reality would create the one they wanted, as apparently does this lot, but crazy-person detachment from reality has yet to save any of them from the way reality really works. The cliff being ignored is still there, whether someone chooses to see it or not, as they walk over it - or not. The self-appointed 'elite' Greeds need to wake up and open their eyes just as much as do the portion of the public they've propagandized to death.

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Psychopathy is not a political position, whether labeled 'conservatism', 'centrism' or 'left'.

A tin labeled 'coffee' may be a can of worms or pathology identified by a lack of empathy/willingness to harm others to achieve personal desires.

I used to believe that there would be a point where rural people would wake up to the rotting world around them and realize that 'deregulation' and 'low taxation' is against their self-interest and the big reason why the environment, owned only by the citizens themselves, is being befouled in the name of profit. But neo-liberalism and deregulation are now a matter of faith and tied into the identity of rural 'rugged individualism' - that they could be drowning in a cesspool of toxic waste and still not realized that they were part of this creation. The answer from these communities will be 'more prayer' and 'less queers'. They still hate liberals because all they do is tell them how to live their lives and take their hard-earned money and give it to lazy n!&&3Rs in the city. Sorry - not feeling very optimistic this morning.

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Democrats, we tried to warn you. How is that guilt and shame working out?

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Vowing To Oppose Everything Trump Attempts.

thanatokephaloides's picture

When the fracking boom was in full swing, right-wingers moaned and complained that there were "jobs in North Dakota going without applicants" and therefore anyone without a job was just lazy and didn't want to work.

As usual, that claim was crap. As always, those who say "they just don't want to work" really mean "they don't want to work for me and mine for nothing"!

And you've proven me right on this one, gjohnsit. The reason that jobs in the fracking fields were going without applicants is simple: it costs money, lots of it, to obtain and hold such a job. Workers aspiring to any such job needed to be able to support themselves living in an RV for a year or more while waiting for the fly-by-night fracking companies to hire them, and often at wages which would not repay that expense once incurred. Moreover, the jobs themselves were, without exception, ephemeral; once the wells were drilled and fracked, the jobs would simply evaporate. Want another such? Rinse and repeat at the next frack site. Same song, nth verse, could be better but it's bound to get worse.

Any time someone insists that things are better than you know them to be, do not trust them; they have an agenda, and that agenda isn't your better good.

Diablo

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"US govt/military = bad. Russian govt/military = bad. Any politician wanting power = bad. Anyone wielding power = bad." --Shahryar

"All power corrupts absolutely!" -- thanatokephaloides

elenacarlena's picture

fuels in the ground, great! The sooner we get serious about renewables, the better.

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Please check out Pet Vet Help, consider joining us to help pets, and follow me @ElenaCarlena on Twitter! Thank you.

They really didn't. Once the oil is extracted and stored - it is now the same as any other oil anywhere in the world. It can be refined and burned at any time. As gjohnsit has pointed out, we seem to have reached 'peak fracking' in extracting oil from shale. Which means we have extracted the 'easy' oil and now we have extracted the 'harder' oil.

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Democrats, we tried to warn you. How is that guilt and shame working out?

travelerxxx's picture

By "offshore production" I don't mean to imply a source from other than the USA. I'm referring to the likes of the BP Deepwater Horizon and similar rigs. Most of these in the United States are in the Gulf of Mexico.

Disclosure: I am employed by a firm which provides services for the offshore oil industry, primarily in the Gulf, but also worldwide.

Our company pays very good money to have the best information available in regard to the petroleum industry. Further, the people running our show are quite experienced and have been through oil price crashes before, although no one has seen anything like this crash before. Now, they don't relay everything they know to the employees, but we do tend to get to hear the good news as they attempt to keep morale in the company up.

For almost a year now, we've been told to expect a return to higher oil prices by late 2016. Well, it's starting to be "late 2016" and we're seeing nothing of the kind. The information here in gjohnsit's essay tends to lead me to believe that any increase in prices is at least a year away.

Since I'm in the Houston area, I read the Houston Chronicle, a paper that covers the petroleum industry closely. For a few months now, their industry reporters have shied away from the "late 2016 recovery" meme. They have covered the fracking arm of the business extensively. Over a year ago, they predicted that one third of the fracking outfits would be bankrupt by mid 2016 or so, and that another third would go belly-up within a year of the first third. They've been spot on with that prediction.

There's been a somewhat unexpected development. The rig count in the West Texas fracking areas is on the rise. Turns out, the frackers have discovered that they can cut drilling costs by at least 40% and - even with prices as low as they now are - make money. I have read that some of the drillers have cut costs by nearly 60%. How they are doing this, I am not certain. Labor costs have undoubtedly plunged; those rig workers are desperate. Also, technology is being pushed as hard as possible, with new methods allowing reduced costs. I also suspect that environmental concerns are being given even less consideration than ever, but I have no proof of this. However, the drillers here in Texas can already do pretty much anything they want.

The angle I think has not been covered is the effect that low oil prices, combined with drastically lowered fracking costs, will have on offshore exploration and production.

The cost of new drilling in the Gulf of Mexico is astronomical. This is especially true since much of the new drilling is being done in water far deeper than we've seen historically. The BP Deepwater Horizon rig was an example of this type of extreme drilling. Formerly limited to no more than around 500 feet depth, new drilling may now see a mile from the vessel to the seabed. Rigs that formerly were physically "planted" on the seabed are now guyed in place by cables and kept in position by complex positioning systems. Many, if not all, of these deep water rigs are using North Sea technology, which is far advanced compared to that formerly utilized in the Gulf of Mexico. All of this technology, all of the logistics, all of the expertise needed to drill in such deep water costs money ... and a lot of it.

It's not that the major oil companies are going broke; they aren't. They are hurting compared to just a few short years ago, however. It's starting to look rather foolish to spend hundreds of billions of dollars on a highly risky deep water drilling project when one could spend a fraction of that for a payoff with fracking. Some companies have deserted the offshore business completely and are concentrating on land production. I think that's what we may be seeing with the sudden increase in the Texas rig count.

I'm not so sure the trade-off of fracking for offshore oil is a good one. We've seen what can happen with a failed deep water rig, and it isn't good. What I wonder about is the effect - largely still unknown - of pumping chemicals into our ground water to force the oil out. Perhaps it's a lose/lose situation. There is an economic aspect as well. Much of southern Louisiana is dependent on offshore oil production. There is much less dependence in Texas, although it exists. If you are not living along the oil producing regions of the US Gulf coast, you might not realize this, but certain areas are in dire straits due to the collapse of oil prices. Some of the last good-paying blue collar jobs are in the energy field. Whether this is good or bad is not my point; these jobs exist but we are now seeing tremendous pressure on them. These jobs are disappearing and fast.

While offshore oil production is not hazard-proof, huge advances have been made. Fracking? We don't even know. Our nation still depends on oil production and will for some time. I'm wondering what happens if we discover that fracking is simply a deadly mistake and is stopped, leaving us with a very depreciated offshore industry, lacking the means to recover in anything near the time necessary to avoid a shock to our economic system.

(Edited for a missing "e")

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Hawkfish's picture

This happened in the telecom crash that you reference. The bankrupt companies were sold for pennies on the dollar, but their assets - most notably all the "dark fiber" investments - do not vanish along with them. Instead, the new owners got to wait a few years until demand caught up and they are turning it all on.

So all that really happens is that the initial investors give up their shirts to pay for the infrastructure but the second round get to use it essentially for free. I expect that the same dynamic will be playing out with oil fracking in a few years.

Which is why the pipeline is not a dead end: Someone will use it once the assets have been absorbed by the ghouls. By stopping the pipeline now, we reduce the future value of the assets, making restarting less attractive down the road. Which is good for our joint survival...

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We can’t save the world by playing by the rules, because the rules have to be changed.
- Greta Thunberg

k9disc's picture

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“Tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat.” ~ Sun Tzu

Song of the lark's picture

After it sheds its debt bubble. The price of oil is right on the long term mean price of 47 dollars a barrel. The capital expenditures from the oil majors has been reduced to such a degree that there will be a gap which will aggravate the price of oil upwards in a couple years. Further the discovery of new supply ( new oil field finds) was this year the lowest in many years and new supply finds are on a dramatic descending decade long trend. We are not replacing conventional ( cheap oil) at anything like what we used to. Conventional oil PEAKED in 2006 and is decreasing every year since. That's why fracking and tar sands had its heyday in 2010-2014.
True there is somewhat of a surplus at this time for a number of reasons. Oil use globally has continued to rise therefore Fracking will be back.we do not really have cheap oil at the moment it's price is right on the long term average. It just seems cheap compared to the anomalous recent years.

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Hillbilly Dem's picture

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"Just call me Hillbilly Dem(exit)."
-H/T to Wavey Davey

What, $4 to $6 trillion dollars in the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq? Not to mention all the new foreign endeavors that await us if Hillary or Trump are elected? (Trump says he doesn't want foreign entanglements - but who do you think he is going to surround himself with? Paleocons? The don't exist anymore). The technology exists, right now, to cut our oil dependency dramatically. If we would have started investing earnestly in alternative fuels 15 years ago, we would be well on our way to cutting oil consumption - probably by half. Instead, we got an oil president who drug us into war, followed by a 'moderate' 'All of the above' president who unshackled any restrictions on fracking or off-shore drilling.

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Democrats, we tried to warn you. How is that guilt and shame working out?

Barry will back a bill to ensure that all frackers maintain their profitability no matter how much it costs We the People. National Defense, don't you know? ISIS! Russia! China!

Now hand over your Social Security and your Medicare.

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