Creating 2nd Half Blowouts

[Cross-posted to Kossacks_For_Sanders Reddit page]

First, from the perspective of March 1st, we're where we realistically hoped to be on March 15. Maybe even better than we hoped.

The focus is, and always has been, how do we make up ground in the 2nd half of a primary schedule that was front-loaded to knock out any challenger to Hillary? How do we make up enough ground to overcome the lead we knew before this began she would have at this point? And so last night I had a thought after seeing a stat that showed 45% of Republicans would vote for a 3rd party if the race was between Trump and Hillary.

Now, I'm NOT advocating for a 3rd party run by Bernie. We need to reclaim the Democratic party from the corporatists who staged their own takeover. To this ends I do see a way to leverage the massive block of voters who identify as independent and moderate (sane) Republican if it appears, as it does, that Trump has a lock on the GOP nomination and is leaving half of the right in horror.

So lets assume a Trump victory. Treat this as a given. And let's also assume Hillary (anyone) can beat Trump in the general. Even if it's not a given that Hillary could beat him, we need to treat it as if she will easily beat him. No doubts.

We know Bernie has considerably more crossover appeal by virtue of being a lifelong independent, speaks to a lot of pocketbook issues that Trump is trying to co-opt (and will be using against Hillary) and the fact that he's NOT Hillary, which counts for a lot. Now remember my stat above - 45% of Republicans said they'd vote for anyone else if it was a contest between Trump and Hillary.

Trump will be a given as the GOP nominee. Hillary is not.

So far we've been largely focused on winning over Democrats who don't care how corruption and the DLC has taken over the party and don't care how deeply flawed Hillary is anymore than Trump supporters care how deeply flawed he is. But people who aren't self-identified Democrats take this issue very seriously (or Trump wouldn't pull the numbers he's pulling), and Democrats only make up 29% of people with a party ID. So my random thought of the night is we start talking to a broader audience with a slightly different message; If they want to stop Trump, are they going to be any happier with a Hillary presidency? If Trump has a lock on the GOP primary in the 2nd half, why, as a right leaning independent or moderate Republican would you waste a protest vote against Trump in a primary that's meaningless, when you can still stop Hillary, who will otherwise beat Trump and be your next president?

tl;dr: Assuming Trump has a lock on the GOP, assuming Hillary beats Trump, could Republican and right leaning independents' fears of a Hillary presidency, coupled with a forgone conclusion on the GOP primary side, give us the extra primary votes needed to create the larger margins we'll need to overcome Hillary's 1st half numbers?

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detroitmechworks's picture

They respect Sanders for coming right out and saying that he's going to tax the rich and help the poor. To the Rethug mind, that's an honest challenge that can be fought against rhetorically and politically.

They hate Hillary because she plays the same political games they like to think themselves BETTER than.

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I do not pretend I know what I do not know.

sojourns's picture

They hate her because she won't crossover and let them make an honest woman out of her.

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"I can't understand why people are frightened of new ideas. I'm frightened of the old ones."
John Cage

sojourns's picture

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"I can't understand why people are frightened of new ideas. I'm frightened of the old ones."
John Cage

and I think there's some value in what you're saying. I believe there may be some non-lunatic Republicans who would rather vote for Sanders than Trump or Clinton.

Personally, I'll likely be voting for Sanders whether he's on the ballot or not. Under no circumstances will I vote for Clinton, even though the Democratic party seems hell-bent on nominating her. It's up to them to figure out how she'll beat Trump.

Which brings me to the one issue I have with your take. You state, "We need to reclaim the Democratic party from the corporatists who staged their own takeover." But later on, you acknowledge, "So far we've been largely focused on winning over Democrats who don't care how corruption and the DLC has taken over the party and don't care how deeply flawed Hillary is ..." And to me, that's the heart of the matter.

I no longer have any confidence the Democratic party is worth saving. Collectively, it seems to have more in common with Republicans of previous decades than it does with improving the lot of the 99%. The conservative mindset embraces nothing that attracts me.

At this point, there are only two things I'm hoping for from this presidential election:

1) Bernie stays in the race and remains competitive to the bitter end.

2) An effort is made to organize Bernie's sea of supporters NOW for future impact. It's up to this group to stake out the ground on the real left, and to refuse to embrace any future candidate who won't champion similar policies.

Here's hoping.

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"The real power is in the hands of small groups of people and I don't think they have titles. -- Bob Dylan"

I think the fight is for middle class/ working class independents and blue collar Democrats who are voting for Trump because they think he will upend the establishment. "Moderate" Republicans are indistinguishable from DLC Democrats. They would go for Hillary over Trump or Sanders as they already agree on the big economic issues of trade and regulation of Wall Street.

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Thumb's picture

There is that, but I'm looking at the 45% of Republicans who say they'll vote 3rd party if their options are Trump or Hillary. If they see no way to stop Trump from winning the GOP nomination, and believe Hillary would beat him in the general (a real possibility) a good percent of them might be willing to cross over for Sanders in the remaining primaries if they think it stops Hillary from winning the presidency.

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"Polls don't tell us how well a candidate is doing; Polls tell us how well the media is doing." ~ Me

You have a point. If Trump gets to a majority voters that would have voted for him could cross over to vote for the other non establishment candidate.

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shaharazade's picture

Is Bernie willing to even contemplate running as an Independent in the general? Is he going to throw his support to HRC. At this point I do not care about spoilers this rigged system needs to be spoiled. The thing is that no matter who wins this farce of a primary or the general nothing will change as the Republicans and the Democrat's with power are complicit. Look at this ridiculous 60 vote caucus bs. The government all at every level, city, state and national is so corrupt it makes little difference whether they fly under a D or R. There are no checks and balances left, no rule of law and no democratic, parliamentary means for people to address their grievances. Both sides are complicit their is no real loyal opposition, the obstructionism is a pathetic illusion especially on the Democratic side. They are in cahoots with the Republicans they then use to scare the pants of the sane people in this country and keep the poplitical side show rolling on.

I blame Obama and the bait and switch hoax perpetuated by the Democratic party on a populace that had had enough after the terrifying Bush regime. I joined the Multmonah county Democratic party here in Oregon. I was a Deaniac and also joined DFA. I took time off from work in 2007 and volunteered at OFA Oregon headquarters which was just down the street from us. Shah was a precinct captain and worked on a local level for so called progressive candidates. Our city and state government is solidly Democratic.

The most amazing thing about this time was the how empowered the people were in my district and state wide. When canvassing people would come up to me and thank me, including Republicans who apologized for supporting Bush2 and his crime family. My block sported yard signs galore, people were engaged, even the most apolitical wanted some bottom up change. I knew when Obummer voted for FISA that I had been bamboozled and immediately quit OFA. I still voted Democratic and switched to working for local grassroots Dems. In 2010-2012 people here were thoroughly disillusioned and rightly so. No yard signs no lively neighborhood discussions about politics. No more participation in the county Dem. party.

The Democratic Party cannot be moved to the left. The left, center, right ideological political breakdown is gone daddy gone. There is only one direction the oligarchical duopoly is willing to move and isn't democratic. Democracy and human civil rights even the survival of the planet are all impediments to the pillaging mad agenda of those who own the place. So part of me held back when Bernie threw his hat in the ring and ran as a Democrat. Indies are 43% of the voters that is a lot of people who see through this farce. Why not run as an Indie? hummmmm..... Bernie has shown that he can raise money from ordinary people so why not build on the movement he has engendered and take on the owned nasty duopoly.

I did feel the Bern still do but I cannot get rid of my doubts that this primary is so rigged that once again we are being bait and switched and that even Trump is part of the by-partisan show. The stick to HRC's fake carrot of 'moderate'. I will not vote for HRC and I do hope Bernie continues to convention but then what? In a way the most disillusioning thing this primary season was learning the Dean was a pharmaceutical lobbyist and was endorsing Hillary. Will Bernie endorse HRC? If so why? Does he think it's too hard for the American people to face the reality that nothing can be done in this brave new inevitable world.

I don't even think Hillary and who and what she represents is the 'lesser evil'. It's a more effective evil because it does not look like Trump or Cheney, but it is. Excuse my pessimism but this whole farce of a democratic electoral process were going through just reeks to high heaven. Even Bernie is unwilling to come out against the war on terra. Smarter drones my ass. So anyway I'm just not willing to trust any of them with their victories for compromise and their fake kabuki show. Part of me just wants the whole damn thing to collapse and break apart.

I'll vote for Bernie and support him but I'll be damned if I'm going to ever get people to mess with change you can believe in or give them the hopies. Interesting times. I do place my faith in people as it's going to get worse and their is a point where as Bernie says enough is enough. I have seen the sparks of democracy globally like Corbyn, Trudeau or in Greece. We need a global solidarity movement as this blood sucking vampire squid is global. It is not however 'inevitable' or unstoppable. People can and do stop this shit when it goes to far.

'I'm taking back my country and the vehicle I'm using is the Democratic party' Howard Dean circa 2003-4

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detroitmechworks's picture

when he abandoned every single one of the things he was elected for. Way too many of my contemporaries just saw it as a confirmation that there's no point to voting at all.

Not going to give up yet, but I still am furious at that asshole for continuing and promoting war after he won my vote by promising to end it.

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I do not pretend I know what I do not know.

mjsmeme's picture

Obama should have been primaried in 2012.

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Blue Dragon's picture

The Democratic Party cannot be moved to the left. The left, center, right ideological political breakdown is gone daddy gone. There is only one direction the oligarchical duopoly is willing to move and isn't democratic.

I watched exactly the same process you describe. I have been thinking if I could vote Hillary against Trump. I don't think I can. Either way, we are going down the tubes.

I also think that we will have to rely on the world's population to stop us. It is bone chilling to realize that we are the global fascist problem.

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May the dolphins, whales and furry things inherit the world. Humans, unless we do an about face, have just about proven we don't deserve this beautiful planet.