Covid-19 Higher Death Rate Continues--3 Days Now

Quick update with three days at a much higher rate now (Source):


The far right column is number of deaths due to covid-19 for the United States as a whole. For the past 3 days, number of deaths:

July 7: 902
July 8: 810
July 9: 874

These levels have not been seen since the first half of June, and a month later we are back up there.

Southern California, Florida, Arizona, and South Carolina are the real hot spots now.

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Not Henry Kissinger's picture

A slight bending of the overall curve to the positive and perhaps a break in the trend line. Not good, but not quite as dramatic as you have suggested previously, and still too few data points to make any definitive trend statements yet.

One point about terminology: You keep using the term 'death rate' when a more accurate description for your metric is 'deaths per day'.

The 'death rate' for COVID as it is commonly used by the CDC is deaths per cases.

Here are the other charts in the wiki series to give a bit more perspective:

The overall trend in deaths per day is seeing a slight uptick, but to determine 'death rate' we need to divide this measure against the much more significant rise in cases, which would still show a downward trend in the 'death rate'.

So, in the interests of accuracy, 'deaths per day' may be on the rise, but even so the overall 'death rate' (ie. deaths / cases), is still falling fairly rapidly for now.

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The current working assumption appears to be that our Shroedinger's Cat system is still alive. But what if we all suspect it's not, and the real problem is we just can't bring ourselves to open the box?

dystopian's picture

2,918 Texans have died as of July 9 — 105 more than the day before and 393 more than a week ago.

That means over 12-13% of all deaths are in last week = not falling.

Surely many of the uninsured die untested, at home.

We are likely seeing the Memorial Day to Fathers Day bounce. Couple with the early opening and full frontal denial. This is where Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick said grannie would be proud for you to sacrifice her for the economy. And that is what is happening. Coming soon the Fourth of July bounce.

The early opening states IMHO are where the best cues come from, as they were obviously in 'disregard/its a hoax/dem plot' mode early on. So how are things in FL, AZ, and TX? Yes there are places where numbers are going down. See the above three states example of how to lose any gains made.

Gotta go to town, sorry for the hit and run...

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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
Look deep into nature, and then you will understand everything better.
both - Albert Einstein

Where the death toll was in the 200's. This is due to the 4th ofjuly weekend. It meant less clerical staff to update accounting.

They are getting caught up. Average of the past 6 days is @620 which is what the average was the week before.

Unless you are suggesting death took the weekend off to celebrate the 4th then it is a clerical artifact.

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Not Henry Kissinger's picture

@Battle of Blair Mountain @Battle of Blair Mountain

over and above what the weekend jump would be (see my post above).

Not by a lot but considering the stat tends to lag cases by about a month, still not a welcome development if it holds.

My guess is that we're bound to see an increase in deaths per day as states open up and infections rise, but the death curve will be much flatter than the infection curve due in large part to much better treatment protocols (as shown by the 'recovered' number which is finally now moving in lockstep with cases) and the virus infecting more people in cohorts less susceptible to complications.

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The current working assumption appears to be that our Shroedinger's Cat system is still alive. But what if we all suspect it's not, and the real problem is we just can't bring ourselves to open the box?

USA new cases 71,787. As for the CFR remaining lower than it was during the Northeast wave, there's a suggestion from Marin County reporting that it may not reach the NE levels (at least not in the current hotspots). (Note: the numbers in this county are too small to draw any firm conclusions.)

71% of the population is white, non-Hispanic/Latino.
18% of the COVID-19 cases are white
35% of the hospitalizations are white.
77% of the deaths are white.

16% of the population is Hispanic/Latino
78% of the COVID-19 cases are Hispanic/Latino
49% of the hospitalizations are Hispanic/Latino
14% of the deaths are Hispanic/Latino.

Consistent most reports, age is a major variable:

Age 80+
5% of the population
65% of the deaths

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