The consequences of mispolling
I think it is so interesting how the Clintonistas/DNC/Thridway(neocon-neolibs) like to quote the reuters online poll and only cite the "likely primary voters" category in their graphics.
There is one over at POS that claims Sanders is losing ground for his attacks on Hillary, which is, of course a logical fallicy in itself since he has been under continuous attack and increasingly negative surrogate-speak since Wisconsin, but I digress.
The problem with using "likely primary voters" is that they have certain criteria for qualification which are due to past behavior, so they naturally favor the older voters, but, by how much???
whell then. . .lets see:
Here is the original chart. OMG!!!! BERNIE IS FALLING APART!!!!
Here is the same chart with the age filters. (notice it is still 22% of all respondents)
Here is the chart with the over 65 crowd removed (notice it went down to 16% -- This means that 27% of the poll was over the age of 65!!!!)
And so it goes, under 50 goes down to. . .wait for it. . .SIX PERCENT (73% of all respondents were OVER 50 years old in the "likely democratic primary voter category")
In fact, it was so overweight in the 50+ category that the under 50 age groups HAVE NO STATISTICAL CONFIDENCE TO MAKE A DECENT GRAPH
same for under 40
and for under 30 with a little note that I call the "OH MY GOD WHAT HAVE WE DONE" effect
I am sure that I don't have to tell you all that primary voter turnout has been (in states that Bernie has won) about 44% turnout between the ages of 18-35 with Sanders getting between 65% to 80% of this vote. Usually the under 50 crowd is about 55% of voter turnout. In this poll. . . it is 27% . . .
That smell????
That is the smell of desperation coming from hired guns hoping to cash in on the patronage due from their investments in Clinton.com
lol
UPDATE
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The middle ground sample that still shows a group of voters with a graph are the 35-59 age group and guess what, in this sample of 9% of total voters and 41% of "likely" voters Bernie is winning this group!!!
I am telling you, this is really happening and it is GREAT!!!
Comments
Very cool analysis
I will wait to see this in tomorrow's Post.
That, of course, is dire in terms of a general election win
But I understand their thinking. They believe, because they themselves are party faithful, that most other people must be also. Accordingly, they believe that if Hillary can win the nomination then we will all pull together to put her in the White House. Surely you've read that any number of times over on GOS?
So they don't really care about anyone under 50 or any other consideration other than what is required to win the nomination. In their minds it'll all work out in the end.
Great research though. It's kind of awesome to think that less than 6% of the people Reuters considers "likely Democratic primary voters" are below the age of 50. Then again, this is not really news. We've known all along (and Nate has said it also) that pollsters need to update their screens for this election.
A lot of wanderers in the U.S. political desert recognize that all the duopoly has to offer is a choice of mirages. Come, let us trudge towards empty expanse of sand #1, littered with the bleached bones of Deaniacs and Hope and Changers.
-- lotlizard
9% of less educated are "likely D primary voters"
while the "less than HS" + "HS or some college" are over 50% of the sample and over 40% registered. (All %s are of the whole sample.)
The only group firmly in the other camp are the post college professionl class.
Likely voters
is a fallacy today.
Past elections, regardless of presidential or mid term, have shown that most don't care. Who is a likely voter? What do the polls say?
Will a certain person vote? Ask your television or your tubes. Talk to Siri. That's where the answers are. /s
This election is based on who wakes up. Continue with incremental changes and talk to your children about floods, famine, drought, pestilence and war. Be honest to them.
This ain't no biblical crap. Mother nature will make many wish for Superman.
He's too busy.
Regardless of the path in life I chose, I realize it's always forward, never straight.
Desperation Blooms Like Madness in the Spring.
This is my fav poll. Look at Bernie's steady climb and still 15 days left til the NY primary. I wonder if any servants have had the courage to show it to the Red Queen.
Donnie The #ShitHole Douchebag. Fake Friend to the Working Class. Real Asshole.
People having fun at dailykos
the Bernie movement moves on and people are posting great stuff
they might be banned, but even the leader, KOS, can see where the excitement is
people are getting banned and some end up here
and as pointed out today the Bernie movement will continue in any case
the Hillary supporters are having a hard time presenting a case that she should be the candidate
and the longer it goes on, more and more about the Clintons and their policies and their foundation is exposed
which means more and more negative things have been learned
if Hillary had not run this time, Biill & Hillary could have continued their work with much higher support from the masses
but their game these days is with the oligarchs and that won't be hurt
and as oligarchs are painted as bad guys, the Clinton Foundation will be tarred with the same brush
Speaking of tarring with the same brush
I just love Blankfein's adoring eyes in this photo. Tempted to make a dKos diary with no text, just the photo. I'll title it "Oh and Senator, love the suit". Hahaha.
Donnie The #ShitHole Douchebag. Fake Friend to the Working Class. Real Asshole.
He does love his golden goose
Vote for a Lemon
I've had the sense that she wears this often to signal that she's Blankfein's bot. Gold, the color of money and this picture got a lot of exposure: so does red, as in "I'm really the GOP"
Also, in many frames her "ensembles" are PERFECTLY coordinated with the sets: since they are donors, she is "harmonized".
There is a fair amount of sexism in this, too.
Good stuff- thank you
for taking the time to review and explain this data to us. Good job.
We must pull back the curtain to see the truth. As you can see this poll is BS. All the polls have been terrible this campaign season that is why we must fight with the truth and get down to voting because then we can see the actual outcome.
PPP was the first to fix their under40 LV errors
They've been closer to actual outcomes since they did that.
Most other outfits are still over-emphasizing over 45 in their LV models.