Can Sanders Do It?

I believe the answer is yes. It looks to me as though the nomination will go to the convention.

I wanted to post this whole article, which is based on the Green Papers posted April 28th, but I'm not savvy enough to manage it. Plus I have a committment and have to leave in a few minutes. But do have a look. It is worth your time to read. And I'll be very interested in what others think about those numbers.

https://johnlaurits.com/2016/04/28/this-is-what-will-happen-at-the-democ...

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Raggedy Ann's picture

I firmly believe he is still in this. We are still in this. Not me, us!

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"The “jumpers” reminded us that one day we will all face only one choice and that is how we will die, not how we will live." Chris Hedges on 9/11

Steven D's picture

another $50 to Bernie.

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"You can't just leave those who created the problem in charge of the solution."---Tyree Scott

RuralLiberal's picture

but that's not financially possible right now. HOWEVER, I just sent another $15. It's better than nothing, but I sure wish it could be more!!

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"Stand Up! Keep Fighting!" - Paul Wellstone

Sandino's picture

I wish I could spend more time on the phone bank.

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However, let's see how his projections work with the Indiana election. If his number is close, then I might have more faith that he knows of which he speaks.

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Vowing To Oppose Everything Trump Attempts.

Redstella's picture

i just voted for Bernie, here in Oregon -the ballot just arrived in my mailbox. Such a privledge!! So, I am still in! All you Oregonians and Californians in June-vote!!! For Bernie.

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xRiotGrrrrlx's picture

I can't wait to cast my Bernie vote in June. It will be an honor. Biggrin

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ZimInSeattle's picture

The author gives permission to re-post the whole thing.

THE WRITING OF JOHN LAURITS
This is What Will Happen at the Democratic Convention
by John LauritsApril 28, 2016
bernie math article

Can Sanders do it? Or is Clinton truly inevitable?

Bernie Sanders has vowed to fight relentlessly for the 2016 Democratic Party’s nomination up to the convention and, despite the apparent consensus of the media’s talking heads that the campaign is a lost cause, he has held fast to his claim that there is a “narrow path to victory.” I am reminded of Galadriel’s ominous words of advice, in the Fellowship of the Ring: The quest stands upon the edge of a knife — stray but a little, and it will fail… ÷

It has even become something of a weekly occurrence for Hillary Clinton and her Wallstreet-backed campaign to imply, insinuate, or flat-out demand that Sanders withdraw his bid for the nomination — they are growing increasingly indignant about the fact that Sanders is trying to win. Which brings us to the heart of the issue — can Bernie Sanders–can we–win the delegates needed for the nomination?

The answer to this question is as simple as it is misleading — No. No, my friends, we cannot. And yet–! And yet, neither can Hillary Clinton — and I am going to show you what the media is willfully hiding from you. I am going to show you why, using the one thing that even the media can’t hide: Math.

Why Clinton Will Not Secure the Nomination, According to Math

According to the Green Papers, Clinton stands (today, April 28th) with 1,664 pledged delegates, while Sanders has gathered 1,371. The amount of delegates needed to secure the nomination is 2,383 and, if you’ll pardon me for my use of arithmetic, I will now demonstrate why that number is hopelessly out of reach for the Clinton campaign.†

Hillary needs 719 more delegates to reach 2,383 because:

2,383 – 1,664 = 719

Now, the pledged delegates that are available to grab in the remaining states all-together amount to 1,016 and in order to attain that blessed number, Clinton will have to win an average of 70.7% of the remaining states. This is because:

719 ÷ 1,016 = 0.707677 or approximately 71%

You might be thinking that 71% is not such an unattainable number for Hillary and her powerful Wallstreet backers — you might be thinking that but you’d be betting against longer odds than would be wise. You see, of the 1,016 delegates remaining, 475 of those delegates are to be won in California, alone — California, which has a semi-open primary. California, where Clinton is polling at a mere 49%. California, where Clinton’s support has been declining as the Sanders Campaign gains visibility and momentum. California — the ace that Sanders, as much as the media, have concealed up his sleeve.

It is no secret that Sanders, a previously invisible independent senator from the tiny state of Vermont, consistently climbs in the polls as he begins to campaign in the weeks before each state has had its primary. You don’t have to take my word for it — check the poll-histories for yourself or read this.

Because Bernie Sanders performs at his absolute best in open primaries and because he consistently rises in the polls, while Clinton consistently falls, it is extremely unlikely that Clinton will perform better than 49 points, let alone win the contest. Let’s do some more math:

Of the 475 delegates available in California on June 7th, lets say Hillary takes 49% of those (even though she will almost certainly take less). That would give her 232.75 delegates, which we’ll round up to an even 234.

475 x 0.49 = 232.75

Next, let’s add that to her current total of 1,664, bringing her up to 1,897. Now, she needs an additional 486 delegates to reach the magic number of 2,383, right? Let’s find out how many delegates Clinton would have to win in the remaining states (besides California, of course).

Of the 541 delegates left, once the 475 CA delegates have been subtracted from the 1,016 delegate total, Clinton is going to have to win almost 90% of the remaining non-California delegates! This is because, when you divide the number of delegates that Clinton needs after California by the number of delegates remaining after California, you get 0.898 or 89%, rounded down:

486 ÷ 541 = 0.898 or 89.8%

Now, how likely does that sound? It’s not likely in Oregon, a fairly progressive state that shares its general attitudes with Washington, a state that Sanders won with about 70% of the vote. It’s not likely in West Virginia, either, where Sanders is currently leading in the polls. Nor is it likely in Indiana where Sanders and Clinton are almost neck-and-neck, which votes on May 3rd. That nomination is feeling a lot further away now, isn’t it?

Okay, okay — maybe you’re thinking, “John, I think you’re being unfair, Clinton could certainly win California.” To which I would reply: I admire your optimism, my friend — and since you’re so optimistic, let’s run those numbers again — but this time, let’s assume that Clinton, for whatever reason, defies the consistent trends that have prevailed over the entire primary season. Let’s say, she jumps up 11% now, winning the California primary with 60% of the vote. So:

475 x 0.6 = 285

Now, add the 285 delegates to Clinton’s current total:

285 + 1,664 = 1,949

But:

2,383 – 1,949 = 434

So, Clinton will still need to scrape up 434 delegates somewhere other than California, some how. Which means — Hold on, first we have to figure out how much of the remaining delegates she’ll have to win:

434 ÷ 541 = .802218 or 80%

Wow! Even if Clinton actually wins California with 60% to Sanders with 40%, she will still have to secure about 80% of the remaining vote! Again, this certainly doesn’t seem likely in Oregon, West Virginia, or Indiana, which means the actual percentage would climb each time she failed to take 80% of a state! Now, are you starting to see why I am saying that Clinton will not be securing the nomination before the convention?

Part Two: Why Sanders Will Win, According to Math

If you’ve found yourself thinking, “Well, Sanders won’t secure the nomination, either!” You are almost 100% right! Well, 99.6% right, anyway. Because, if we take Sanders’ current delegate total of 1,371, subtract that from the magic 2,383, then divide that by the remaining available delegates, we get 0.996, see:

2,383 – 1,371 = 1,012

1,012 ÷ 1,016 = 0.996 or 99.6%

Therefore, Sanders would have to secure a whopping 99.6% victory in all remaining states to secure the nomination! I think this may be one of the few things that both Berners and Clintonistas could agree on: that that is impossible. But to those of you that are thinking, “John! This is terrible” or “Haha! Take that, Sanders!” I would reply: You are both wrong. Mostly. Let me explain:

First off, let’s acknowledge that the math seems to prohibit both candidates from securing the nomination before the convention — so what does this mean? This means that, since Sanders will not give up before the convention, there will almost certainly be a “contested convention.”

“Um… But John…” you may be saying, “Won’t Hillary still be miles ahead of Sanders in votes at the convention?”

To which I would reply: I’m glad you asked, my paid Hillary-supporter friend! Allow me to demonstrate how that will also not be the case, no matter what the media would have you believe. Follow me!

Since neither of them will be securing the 2,383 needed for the nomination, let’s take a look at another number that has been hiding in plain sight for far too long. I’d like you to meet the number, 4,051. That’s the number of total pledged delegates that are available from all 50 states, plus DC, US territories, and the Democrats abroad. As it should be obvious, a majority of these delegates would be 2,026 because:

4,051 ÷ 2 = 2,025.5

At the convention, this number is going to matter more than the unattainable 2,383 delegates that no one will have. That being the case, let’s take a look at what Bernie Sanders would have to do to get there. If Sanders won 60% of the remaining contests (and remember how 475 of 1,016 are in California, where Sanders will do well), then the numbers at the convention would look like this:

1,016 x .60 = 609.6

Round that to 610 and add it to Sanders current total of 1,371, then divide that by the total delegate count, 4,051:

610 + 1,371 = 1,981

1,981 ÷ 4,051 = .489 or 48.9%

So, in the scenario where Sanders takes about 60% of the remaining vote, we’re essentially looking at a 49 to 51% vote total at the convention — not so bad, eh? And that’s easily within Sanders’ reach, if we do well in California (which we almost certainly will). Let’s look at what happens if he takes 70% (just like he did last time we went to the West/Left Coast):

1,016 x .70 = 711.2, round it down to 711, then:

711 + 1,371 = 2,082

2,082 ÷ 4,051 = 0.513 or 51.3%

If Sanders took 70%, the convention would look like 51.3 to 48.7%, in favor of Sanders! But 70%, while possible, is a bit of a stretch — the new magic number, for Sanders anyway, is actually 64.4% of the remaining states, which would mean winning 655 of the 1,016 remaining delegates, pushing his total up to 2,026, the bare majority of delegates, leaving Clinton one delegate behind at 2,025.

Now, does Sanders winning 64.4% sound too far-fetched? Not particularly, especially when we consider his advantages on the Left Coast, in California’s 475 delegate semi-open primary. An uphill climb, though? Certainly. Remember, though: it is all but certain that Clinton will not secure the nomination, while Sanders supporters are going to be pouring into Philadelphia for the convention by the tens of thousands. Even if Bernie fell short by a few points, we’re still essentially looking at a tie. And that’s when all hell is going to break loose.

Things are going to become very interesting if we have a near-tie at the convention to be decided by the super-delegates.

Things are going to become very interesting when they look back at the many states that are still crying out for a re-vote, states fraught with “voting irregularities,” polling station closures, and voter roll purges — all states which Clinton won and all states which so far have not received justice.

Things are going to become very interesting when the DNC and the super-delegates realize that Sanders, unlike the Wallstreet-backed Clinton-Machine, will bring in not only millions of independent voters that were unable to vote in the primaries, but even defecting Republican votes, sealing the GOP’s utter defeat in November.

Things are going to become very interesting when, while they are thinking about all of these things, they are doing so to the earth-shaking, thunderous chants of “Sanders! Sanders!” from his tens of thousands of supporters outside, who have time-and-again proven their ability to rally by the tens of thousands — do you think that we won’t do the same at the convention?

And finally, things are going to become very, very interesting when the super-delegates and the DNC are forced to choose, publicly, whether to hand the nomination to Clinton and watch the millions of independents walk away, along with millions of former-democrat Sanders-supporters, basically handing the general election to the neo-fascists Trump or Cruz — or, to hand it to Sanders, a leader who will have the support, not only of the entire Democratic Party, but of millions of Independents, Green Party voters, and — yes, indeed — even Republicans defecting from the extremist GOP. That will be the most interesting part, I think. I’ll see you all in Philadelphia.

In Solidarity,
John Laurits

P.S. Please feel totally free to reproduce this article, re-post, re-use, re-cycle, or whatever, in whole or in part — credit would be lovely but, ultimately, I don’t really care! Do as ye will! Peace!

#SeeYouInPhilly

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"Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable." - JFK | "The more I see of the moneyed peoples, the more I understand the guillotine." - G. B. Shaw Bernie/Tulsi 2020

Hawkfish's picture

Thanks.

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We can’t save the world by playing by the rules, because the rules have to be changed.
- Greta Thunberg

MsGrin's picture

So much less stressful. Wink

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'What we are left with is an agency mandated to ensure transparency and disclosure that is actually working to keep the public in the dark' - Ann M. Ravel, former FEC member

NonnyO's picture

... voice exercises so I can sing (yes, my expansive girth qualifies me as a fat lady!)....

Gathering good luck talismans....

Biggrin

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I believe in an America where the separation of church and state is absolute ..., where no church or church school is granted any public funds or political preference. — President John F. Kennedy, Houston, TX, 12 September 1960

WindDancer13's picture

I came up with that 64% number last night--without all the math. Okay with some real simple math, but the right number. LOL My algebra/geometry teachers used to complain about me not showing how I got to an answer, and I asked what does it matter when the answer is correct. = )

Thanks for posting the article. Keeping it real!

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We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence, then, is not an act, but a habit.--Aristotle
If there is no struggle there is no progress.--Frederick Douglass

Hawkfish's picture

of the article appears to be that not all of the delegates assigned to a candidate are actually pledged (i.e. bound to vote for them). In order to secure the nomination before the convention, you need to have enough pledged delegates, which neither of them will have pretty much no matter what. So while Clinton may have a bunch of assigned delegates from her victories, they don't actually have to vote that way.

The last part of the article is a bunch of reasons why the unpledged/super delegates might panic at the last minute and go for Sanders, including voting irregularities and voter turnout. So let's keep the pressure on.

Fortune favours the prepared mind.
-- Louis Pasteur

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We can’t save the world by playing by the rules, because the rules have to be changed.
- Greta Thunberg

MsGrin's picture

...and it isn't obvious to me yet how they all get to be this way. There are I think 5 categories of delegates in my state. It all seems to secret-clubby and mysterious.

I've been vacillating about running, so am trying to comprehend all this...

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'What we are left with is an agency mandated to ensure transparency and disclosure that is actually working to keep the public in the dark' - Ann M. Ravel, former FEC member

Would the super-delegates hand the nomination to Hillary and send Bernie's millions of independent supporters away? I think they would unless our candidate arrives in Philadelphia with 2,383 pledged delegates. Such a come-from-behind victory would be unprecedented, but it could happen. I agree that California is the ace-up-his-sleeve.

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"We've done the impossible, and that makes us mighty."

detroitmechworks's picture

Has never seen.

[video:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5-EdLMxjPCg]

Sorry, sorry, I must admit Hillary is far more Harkonnen in her general attitude...

(Although I preferred the non-canon Ordos anyway, so who am I to judge?)

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I do not pretend I know what I do not know.

MsGrin's picture

Which both attracts me and repels me from running for a delegate seat. No doubt the tricks will be astonishing to those who are paying attention (so, since my eyes are more open than they were, I feel it as an obligation to attempt to go, although I realize it may make me physically ill to be in there while it's happening).

Those who are not paying attention won't notice a thing - unless the tricks are defied and we pull off the oh-so-necessary but unlikely win.

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'What we are left with is an agency mandated to ensure transparency and disclosure that is actually working to keep the public in the dark' - Ann M. Ravel, former FEC member

We need people on the ground, to observe and report.

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MsGrin's picture

In running for an alternate seat, in addition to all the Clinton peeps I will be up against (in a state which went 60/30 Clinton), I'll likely also be up against a guy in my own Senate dist who has better credentials. Unlikely it would go to me.

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'What we are left with is an agency mandated to ensure transparency and disclosure that is actually working to keep the public in the dark' - Ann M. Ravel, former FEC member

We need to release the Pootie Sekrit Army from TOP and send them to polling places in California, Indiana, Oregon, WV and elsewhere. They will ensure that Ps and Qs are minded, no voters are purged, and keep Bill and his bullhorn away from polling places. The time has come for Pooties to put their very thorough and rigorous training between catnaps to use for the greater good.

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riverlover's picture

The MSM "press" will have an honest-to-dog horserace. Could they resist? If they get that, would they actually be snooping for shenanigans by either side? And report those? And expose the fraud, the set-up of our fake democratic selection process? Might be very interesting.

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Hey! my dear friends or soon-to-be's, JtC could use the donations to keep this site functioning for those of us who can still see the life preserver or flotsam in the water.

MsGrin's picture

There have been so many glitches unreported or under-reported so far.

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'What we are left with is an agency mandated to ensure transparency and disclosure that is actually working to keep the public in the dark' - Ann M. Ravel, former FEC member

Szaephod's picture

Baron - er - Secretary Clinton.

Ah, the corruption of Spice!

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The spirit of party serves to enfeeble the Public Administration,
agitates with Jealousies and false alarms, and opens the door to corruption,
which finds access to the government itself through the channels of party passions.
George Washington

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orlbucfan's picture

mathematicians (unfortunately not me). I still looked at the writer's calculations. They weren't crazy or off-base. The other factor is the FBI investigation(s). Regardless of when they break, they are still on-going. The Bernster will win Indiana, West Virginia, Oregon, California, one of the Dakotas, and who knows what else. He's coming to Philly fully loaded. Plus, there will be marches and rallies. The voter tampering is rampant now, and the primary season isn't finished. That news is spreading and there are a lot of po'ed Americans who couldn't vote. Looks like it will be one hot summer in convention Philly. GO BERNIE!!

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Inner and Outer Space: the Final Frontiers.

Szaephod's picture

It's hard to imagine it ending in any way well for Sec. Clinton.

An indictment is easy - she's hosed.

If after the many months of investigations, the many interviews, the $millions expended, the many leaks indicating serious violations of law, the FBI does not hand up an recommendation to Justice for an indictment, there will be a thermal nuclear explosion in the House, and full-time hearings from now until November. Also, very bad news for the Secretary.

A recommendation for an indictment, but DOJ demurring, would almost be worse than an indictment, as it would smell of "Deep State" corruption.

It will be an interesting next couple of months.

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The spirit of party serves to enfeeble the Public Administration,
agitates with Jealousies and false alarms, and opens the door to corruption,
which finds access to the government itself through the channels of party passions.
George Washington

ngant17's picture

it just demolished all the disinformation floating around to discredit Bernie's campaign.

He's been handicapped from the start, and has had to face the most egregious machinations from DNC and the Hillary camp. Yet he keeps going and he is at this point appears to be unstoppable.

It's a matter of time when the cheating and habitual corruption will surface to face public scrutiny.

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Sedna's picture

I believe Bernie can do it as well, but if somehow the convention goes completely sideways with underhanded folderol there's always the possibility for Bernie to choose the Independent option. With so much support, enthusiasm and momentum behind him it's hard to imagine him not pressing forward toward candidacy:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/h-a-goodman/case-for-sanders-running-indep...

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"So it goes."
Kurt Vonnegut

we need to spread this far and wide. I've felt all along that this would NOT be decided before the convention. Good news indeed!

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Ya got to be a Spirit, cain't be no Ghost. . .

Explain Bldg #7. . . still waiting. . .

If you’ve ever wondered whether you would have complied in 1930’s Germany,
Now you know. . .
sign at protest march

ngant17's picture

and they are going absolutely rabid with that link.

You know you're over your target when the flak starts blasting out at you.

Hillary's compulsive thievery and assorted sneaky tricks in the next voting states just might get her caught red-handed, she's already dangerously exposed her flanks in AZ and NY. She needs to quit asap. Is she pushing her luck or what?

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detroitmechworks's picture

and a detailed topographical map.

And a pack of Sherpas.

However, Hillary's tricks will NEVER be called out by the MSM, and I have every reason to believe that if she is indicted, it'll be the fastest presidential pardon you've ever seen. (If there was such a thing as a Presidential Criminal Annulment, Obomber would probably do it. Not only is the crime forgiven... it never happened!)

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I do not pretend I know what I do not know.

Sandino's picture

to even link to thoughtcrime-laden GOP CT memes like that?

Morituri te salutamus

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RuralLiberal's picture

at the link you provided. THANK YOU!!

I actually felt my eyes tear up a little bit when I felt a sudden surge of hope.

He can do this. WE can do this.

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"Stand Up! Keep Fighting!" - Paul Wellstone

Sandino's picture

5 Things We’ve Learned About Hillary Clinton Since She Won the New York Primary

Sanders supporters knew Clinton was angry at them for voting for Bernie — they could tell by her comment saying that she “feels sorry for” young voters too misinformed to vote for her; or by Bill Clinton saying that Sanders voters are so unsophisticated that they just want to “shoot every third banker on Wall Street”; or by David Plouffe (a Clinton ally) saying that every person who donates money to Sanders is being taken in by an obvious “fraud”; or by the unnamed Clinton staffer so certain she or he was speaking in a tone and manner consistent with the view of the Clinton campaign that she or he told Politico that the Clinton campaign “kicked Bernie’s ass” in New York and that Sanders can “go fuck himself.”

And so on.

But who knew that, with almost twenty primaries and caucuses left, and more than 1,400 delegates left to be awarded, Clinton would start vetting potential Vice Presidential picks in full view of an electorate she says she’s still working hard to win over? And who knew that not only would Sanders not be considered for a unity ticket, but — apparently — her top picks for VP, Cory Booker and Julian Castro, are reliable Clintonites with no ties whatsoever to the Sanders campaign or the movement he heads? And who knew Elizabeth Warren would almost certainly be frozen out of the VP conversation due to her decision to stay neutral in the primary race rather than endorse Clinton?

Well, everyone.

Everyone who knows the Clintons, that is.

So, if you’re either a Sanders supporter, sympathetic to the Sanders campaign, or a Hillary voter desperately hoping she’ll do something to bring into the Democratic fold the 40 percent of Sanders voters who say they won’t vote for Hillary in the fall — all but ensuring a Trump presidency — here’s some news for you: the signals are now being sent that Sanders and his people will, by calculated design, get absolutely nothing.

Hillary lost in 2008 and received the second-most powerful position in the world.

Sanders will be ignored and shunned.

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reflectionsv37's picture

another $27. I contributed $27 after the NY loss and obviously, it's time to do it again. We need to make sure he has the funds to continue to put up a fierce fight in California. And it's not cheap to advertise there! Do what you can everyone! Make sure he can keep fighting for us, as we keep fighting for him.

And I just have to say how enjoyable it is to read great news like this without a few paid Hillary shills thread jacking and derailing the diary. It is so much better over here!!

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“Our enemies are innovative and resourceful, and so are we. They never stop thinking about new ways to harm our country and our people, and neither do we.”
George W. Bush

Lookout's picture

I'm looking at the green papers too for my delegate count, and my thought is we need to go into the convention with the most pledged (elected) delegates.
So Bernie is down 295 delegates. There are 1016 to go.
1016-295=721
721/2=360.5 round that up to 361+295 (what we're behind)=656
So we need 656/1016=62% of the remaining delegates. That takes us to the convention with 1 more pledged delegate than Clinton. Obama had 60 more delegates than Hillary going into the 2008 convention.

Considering how far we've come and the fact that the upcoming contests are open primaries in favorable Sanders states I think we are in much better shape than the MSM is letting on. In fact I think they understand we are in striking distance and therefore constantly report "He can't win" (y'all just give up).

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“Until justice rolls down like water and righteousness like a mighty stream.”