Biden Surges Prior to SC and SuperTuesday
UPDATE: The latest Point Blank Political Poll for California shows Bernie above both Biden and Warren by 20 points. Very large sample size (more than 2,200). In fact, Biden and Warren are only at 14% in that poll, meaning that if this is how the actual primary vote turned out, they would not qualify for delegates, and Bernie would gain all 415 pledged delegates (currently, he is expected to take only 227 of them).
That would be *huge*.
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After Bernie's surge, the attack dogs in the media came out, he said some non-popular stuff about Cuba and didn't answer some questions about paying for his programs very well, and the establishment is trying its damnedest to thwart his rise.
Biden stayed relatively quiet at the last debate, and it has paid off. He has surged past Bloomberg, who is no longer relevant, and things have changed a lot in the past week. Biden, on paper at least, is now a realistic threat to Bernie.
In South Carolina, Biden is now almost certain to win. FiveThirtyEight show him averaging 17 delegates more than Bernie (32 total for Biden, 15 for Bernie). Steyer has evidently put everything he's got into SC, but is not showing much gain for it. Biden and Bernie are likely the only candidates who will gain delegates there.
Heading into the SuperTuesday states, California is the big one. Here, Sanders is actually gaining total number of delegates, but so is Biden because Bloomberg is tanking. Sanders is expected to beat Biden by 133 delegates (225 total).
In a recent CNN Poll, Sanders is shown crushing Biden, but in recent FiveThirtyEight analyses, Biden wins the state by 2 delegates. This is a dramatic reversal from four days ago when Sanders was expected to gain 40 more delegates than Biden. Let's consider this a slim Biden win for now.
North Carolina has now switched to a Biden win, where he will gain 11 more delegates than Bernie.
Virginia has flipped as well, and Biden is expected to win by 2 delegates.
Massachusetts is still solidly in the Sanders camp, where his is expected to win over Warren by 14 delegates, and Biden is third with 6 delegates fewer than Warren.
Klobuchar is still expected to win Minnesota, by 2 delegates over Bernie. Biden is third, with 19 fewer delegates than Bernie.
Colorado will be a solid Bernie win. He is expected to gain 20 more delegates than Biden there.
Tennessee has flipped to Biden, who now is expected to win 6 more delegates than Bernie there.
Alabama, which has always been Biden's stronghold, is now even more his stronghold. Biden will probably gain 12 more delegates than Bloomberg there, and Bernie will take third place behind Bloomberg by 2 delegates.
Oklahoma is no longer in the Bernie camp. He is expected to lose to Biden there by 1 delegate.
Arkansas has flipped as well to Biden, where he is expected to take 1 delegate more than Bernie.
Utah is a solid Bernie win by all expectations. He is expected to gain 9 more delegates than Bloomberg there. Biden comes in fourth, behind Warren.
Maine will be a Bernie win, where he is expected to gain 5 more delegates than Biden.
Bernie will probably win all 16 pledged delegates in Vermont.
In American Samoa, Biden and Bernie are both expected to get 2 delegates each.
Finally, in Michigan, Bernie is expected to win with more than 18 delegates than Biden.
Between now and the end of SuperTuesday, Biden is expected to win 8 states--although a few of those only by a hair. Bernie is expected to win in 7 states. They are both expected to tie in American Samoa. Klobuchar is expected to take Minnesota.
Because of California, Bernie is expected to win more delegates for sure.
Four days ago, in the grand scheme of things Bernie had a 1,007 delegate lead over Biden according to the FiveThirtyEight algorithms for the entire primary race. Now, he only has a 307 delegate lead. That would ensure a contested convention . . .
I'll update tomorrow night for the South Carolina race . . .
Comments
For what it's worth...
Be interesting to see how well their 'poll-free' algorithm performs versus Nate the Not-so-Great.
For anybody interested in digging into the details, the original report is here.
The current working assumption appears to be that our Shroedinger's Cat system is still alive. But what if we all suspect it's not, and the real problem is we just can't bring ourselves to open the box?
South Carolina
Sanders outperforms his polls, Biden (at least this cycle) substantially underperforms them.
Data for Progress did a good job polling Nevada. Their final poll had Sanders 35, Biden 16. First alignment results were 34/18. Final delegate count was 47% to 20%.
Data for Progress poll for South Carolina says: Biden 34, Sanders 25. Margin of error is 2.6%.
I'm extremely skeptical about a Biden surge. They'll have to hold an election and count the votes before I'll believe it.
I think South Carolina will be close and could go either way, with Biden winning by a couple of percentage points or Sanders winning by a couple. Turnout, turnout, turnout.
"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." -- Albert Bartlett
"A species that is hurtling toward extinction has no business promoting slow incremental change." -- Caitlin Johnstone
Leave No Vote unBerned!
I heard somewhere that the Bernie campaign was the first campaign ever to canvass trailer parks in SC.
Absolutely astounding ground game.
I'll call Bernie in a squeaker tomorrow. But who the hell knows.
The current working assumption appears to be that our Shroedinger's Cat system is still alive. But what if we all suspect it's not, and the real problem is we just can't bring ourselves to open the box?
I doing data entry for Bernie
We are swamped at times. The number of volunteers and Bernie voters we have on record is astonishing.
We can’t save the world by playing by the rules, because the rules have to be changed.
- Greta Thunberg
I'm skeptical about a Biden surge too. All of the dark forces
are aligned to promote this message. I have also heard it from some objective sources, but I still don't put too much stock in it.
The Hispanic vote in SC has grown
Bernie got around 92,000 votes out of almost 300,000 in the 2016 primary.
Only 5000 Hispanics voted in the 2016 primary/caucus.
32,000 Hispanics/Latinos have been newly registered since 2016.
121,000 young African Americans and Hispanic/Latinos have similarly newly registered.
44,000 Hispanics/Latinos voted in the 2016 general election in SC.
Chuck Rocha is predicting a big surprise. You recall what he pulled off in Nevada?
Thank you all for your predictions.
When you look at 538, you're looking at betting odds.
When nate stuck to his political hedging, his numbers were more in line.
Always remember, 538 is not Nate.
I see a late season admission of fallacy once again.
Regardless of the path in life I chose, I realize it's always forward, never straight.
Same same same
AFAIK, we have all the same pollsters using all the same methods which were so fantastically wrong in 2016. Plus, I feel there’s more than a slight air of manufacturing consent going on, as usual. It’s really hard for me to get too worked up over polls.
Idolizing a politician is like believing the stripper really likes you.
Yep
Hillary is gonna win by a landslide!
Trust us. We know.
Neither Russia nor China is our enemy.
Neither Iran nor Venezuela are threatening America.
Cuba is a dead horse, stop beating it.
Thanks for your analysis, Apen...
Here's hoping that Bernie's folks vote in record numbers and turn this primary election into a route!
"The enemy is anybody who is going to get you killed, no matter which side he's on." Yossarian
I'm betting Nate is wrong
To see polls change that much in a short time seems debatable to my mind. Biden has been falling for months so why would that change so much? Biden has never made it past Iowa before and he is just a shadow of what he used to be. It'd be great if Bloomberg's numbers keep falling though. His barrage of ad attacks are ticking people off.
Here is what one person in Utah said about the ads.
This is great.
A woman here is the first person to say, bye bye ByeDone. LMAO! He also challenged someone to an IQ test which he pulled out for this cycle. He's even plaigerising (sp) himself.
And of course ByeDone should get a windup doll because MyBoss has one.
I don't know why people keep asking Bernie how he's going to pay for his plans. He not only answered the question numerous times and most recently during the CNN town hall where he handed the guy a copy and said it's available on his website, but he answered it last time he ran.
Which AIPAC/MIC/pharma/bank bought politician are you going to vote for? Don’t be surprised when nothing changes.
Ah, but you do know.
"I don't know why people keep asking Bernie how he's going to pay for his plans."
"Sen. Sanders, how you gonna pay for it?" (Sanders describes how in detail, and provides a massive tome of the details).
"Sen. Warren, how did you feel when Sanders wouldn't say how he's gonna pay for it"?
Bloomberg. Yech!
Bloomberg has one ad where he claims by implication that he was the New York City hero mayor of the 9/11 attack. For some reason, though, I remember Giuliani as being NYC mayor then. My senior dementia must be getting worse than I thought.
C'mon, man!
Who are you going to believe? Slick TV ads paid for by one of the world's richest (and thus best) men? Or your lying eyes?
"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." -- Albert Bartlett
"A species that is hurtling toward extinction has no business promoting slow incremental change." -- Caitlin Johnstone
This is just more of that
clutching pearls thing they want Bernie voters to do. Biden is ahead - horrors! Bernie's ground game is nothing to sneeze at. Let's all just take a deep breath and see how SC plays out. We have no crystal balls here, so calm down!
"The “jumpers” reminded us that one day we will all face only one choice and that is how we will die, not how we will live." Chris Hedges on 9/11
OMG!! Bernie is DOOMED!!
South Carolinians have come to their senses and will show Comrade Bernie the back side of the palmetto. The MSM and TPTB have spoken.
Seriously, though, whether or not Bernie wins SC hardly matters. It's an oddball state that is not at all reflective of the national vote. Super Tuesday is what counts, and despite efforts to derail Bernie, I suspect he'll do quite well.
Important not to get too low or too high, I think.
Meaning our emotions rather than Bernie's numbers. He can go as high as he wants.
"More for Gore or the son of a drug lord--None of the above, fuck it, cut the cord."
--Zack de la Rocha
"I tell you I'll have nothing to do with the place...The roof of that hall is made of bones."
-- Fiver
Dunno if anyone here knows about this
Biden’s AA support seems lame by comparison.
We can’t save the world by playing by the rules, because the rules have to be changed.
- Greta Thunberg
Look, everybody knows
that California is so easy to win that all you need is your name on the ballot and a couple endorsements. You don't need a ground game, or TV ads, or rallies. Those just slow you down! Real candidates just say "I'd like to win California" and BOOM, delegates fall from the sky, not to mention the SUPER delegates (those are the best kind!).
"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." -- Albert Bartlett
"A species that is hurtling toward extinction has no business promoting slow incremental change." -- Caitlin Johnstone
think it's time for the 'super'
delegates - flying high -
to find their due collective kryptonite
berning back down to ground
The exploding planet Krypton from History of the DNC Universe #1 (1986)
I had a weird thought a moment ago
the Dem establishment does not want Bernie to be President and would prefer 4 more years of Trump because, in the event of Bernie losing in November, they'd be able to claim it was the policies of the left that were rejected and 2024 "isn't that far away". Whereas if Bernie wins and is successful those Dems are out.
The weird thought I had is the Bloomberg possibility. I understand how those Dems feel about Bernie and their own future. If Bloomberg won the nomination I'd like to see him lose the general by 20 points...except for the fact that Trump is nuts enough to think that would make him King. But a solid rejection of the attempt to buy the Presidency might be worth it. Although, heck, they'd probably blame Bernie.
The Ned Lamont strategy.
Bloomberg is hiring consultants through November.
Which means that even if he loses to Bernie in the primary he still has the infrastructure in place to campaign as an independent in the general.
Just speculation at this point but something to keep an eye on.
The current working assumption appears to be that our Shroedinger's Cat system is still alive. But what if we all suspect it's not, and the real problem is we just can't bring ourselves to open the box?