[This was written before Wisconsin. I'll have an update after NY/PA]

After the March primaries/caucuses and re-allocation from earlier races, Bernie has 1038 delegates. Bernie’s pledged delegate deficit now sits at 228. That means he needs to win 988 of the remaining 1747 delegates or 56.5% to secure the majority of pledged delegates.

We started out on March 16 needing almost 60% of remaining delegates, that is now down to 56.5% of those remaining.

This is a difficult task, but it is doable. If we can GOTV and organize in the remaining states.

Here is what’s been achieved since Super Tuesday:

Hillary won 97 delegates over the same period and the delegate deficit was reduced by 92 delegates. When we factor in delegates re-allocated to Bernie in GA, TX and IL, the delegate deficit has been reduced by almost a hundred. I have not factored in unconfirmed pickups in CO, NV and other states. Will wait on Green Papers to confirm. Demosten has been tracking county/state conventions carefully and has noticed that Clinton pick-ups are rather rare. We’re not certain exactly why, perhaps more Clinton delegates are no-shows or switch to Bernie. We hesitate to ascribe reasons, but the Clinton campaign has to bear some responsibility for not being able to protect primary/caucus night margins through the complete state process.

We need 988 additional delegates. In the table below, I’ve taken the 538 delegate estimates for a nationally-tied race and scaled them up to arrive at 988.

Like all models, the 538 model doesn’t reflect reality. It has consistently under-estimated the strength of both Bernie and Hillary in the regions more amenable to their respective messages. However, it is widely used and cited, both in the press and here. In the absence of a better public model, I’ll stick with my simplistic approach of scaling up the 538 figures till I arrive at the required number. I will publish a diary next week giving my own take on NY. But for this analysis, I just like to keep it simple, so here are the targets.

Torilahure provided the popular vote percentages that you see above in a diary she kindly put together. I should note that Torilahure is not necessarily rooting for Bernie, but has helped us out here in the best spirit of collaboration.

A number of people believe Wisconsin and Wyoming might outperform the targets presented above (both 538’s and mine). Just keep in mind that 60.6% and 68.8% are already aggressive targets.

The underlying support for Bernie and his policies means we can win the primary, but it will require an all out effort to GoTV. So please, phonebank, canvas, do what is needed.