Democratic voter turnout problem continues to get worse

You won't hear much about this on the GOS, but Republican voters are turning out in record numbers.

Republican turnout this primary season is up 64% over 2012, newly compiled data show, with participation accelerating in the most recent contests as voters in big states took the rare opportunity to play a meaningful role.

OK, so you probably already heard something about this. But what you probably hadn't heard is how the trend is accelerating.

The analysis found that turnout more than tripled in Connecticut, more than quadrupled in Rhode Island and rose 97% in Pennsylvania, which voted this week.

The opposite is true for Democrats.

In a stark contrast to the GOP turnout, Democratic participation has declined 17% so far from the party’s last competitive primary, in 2008...
According to the Public Opinion Strategies tally, some 25.1 million Republicans have cast ballots this year, compared with 15.3 million in 2012. Some 3.5 million more Republicans than Democrats have voted. Democratic primaries have drawn 21.6 million voters, compared with 26.1 million in 2008.

Hillarybots will tell you that this has no bearing on November, and that may indeed be true.
But, and this is a big but, the only available, concrete, un-spun data is turnout. So to say that it means nothing is just speculation based on hopes. Nothing more.
If Hillarybots are right, it'll only because of coincidence.

There is an interesting breakdown of the voters.

The female Democratic voter pool has exceeded the male pool been 14 percentage points more female than male, while the Republican electorate has been 2 points more male than female. Some 57% of Democratic primary voters have been women and 43% men. In the GOP voter pool, 51% of voters have been men and 49% women. White voters have accounted for 90% of the Republican electorate and 62% of the Democratic electorate.
The share of voters with a four-year college degree is slightly higher in the GOP electorate than in the Democratic voter pool. But voters with post-graduate degrees make up a larger share of the Democratic electorate.

Democrats still can't come close to winning without white voters, but you would never know that on DKos.

While Republican turnout was accelerating last week, Democratic turnout crashed in places like Democratic-controlled New York...by design.

Polling places didn’t open on time, voting machines malfunctioned, and voters showed up to find their names weren’t on the rolls. Some voters had their party affiliations mysteriously switched from Democratic or Republican to independent or non-affiliated and couldn’t vote in the closed primaries. And 3 million New Yorkers, 27 percent of the electorate, didn’t get to vote because they weren’t registered with the Democratic or Republican parties, and the deadline to change party affiliation was an absurd 193 days before the April 19 primary, as I reported on Monday.
As a result, only 19.7 percent of eligible New Yorkers cast a ballot, the second-lowest voter turnout among primary states after Louisiana, according to elections expert Michael McDonald. There were over 900 calls from frustrated voters to the Election Protection Coalition, more than in any other primary state.

It's not a bug. It's a feature.

As for Democratic turnout, there is an interesting article in the most surprising of places - the pro-Hillary site FiveThirtyEight.

In the ongoing fight between Democrats and Republicans over election procedures like voter ID and early voting, the Democrats are supposedly the champions of higher turnout and reducing barriers to participation. But when it comes to scheduling off-cycle elections1 like those taking place today, the Democratic Party is the champion of voter suppression.

This may not surprise to many here on C99P, but I'm sure this would be a shocking claim on GOS.
We've been told over and over again on DKos that the biggest impediment to voter turnout is the GOP. When in fact the opposite is true.

Nowhere are the strategic motivations — and the hypocritical rhetoric — of both parties more apparent than in the timing of elections.

The election calendar in the United States is an insane mess. Exhibit A is New Jersey. New Jersey holds federal elections with the rest of the country on the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November of even-numbered years. But elections for state office in New Jersey are held in November of odd-numbered years. School district elections are held on the third Tuesday in April or else in November. And fire district commissioner elections are held on the third Saturday in February.
...
Voters of all political stripes prefer consolidated elections, and by wide margins. But that’s especially true for people who identify as Democrats, who prefer consolidated elections 73 percent to 27 percent.
The consolidation bills, which were generally sponsored by Republicans, typically failed because of Democratic opposition, according to Anzia. By her account, Democrats opposed the bills at the urging of Democratic-aligned interest groups, namely teachers unions and municipal employee organizations...
For all the bills that went to the floor, Anzia estimates that Republicans voted for consolidation 60 percent of the time and Democrats 40 percent.

Nothing suppresses voter turnout more than scheduling votes for when voters don't want to show up. Just look at off-year election turnout for proof.
Of course the undemocratic nature of Superdelegates shows just how hypocritical the Democratic party is when it comes to turnout. But that's another story.

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"Religion is what keeps the poor from murdering the rich."--Napoleon

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The 538 article I added shows that low turnout is exactly what the Democrats want.

I'm thinking about beefing this essay up a little and then dropping it on GOS just to see what sort of reaction I'll get.

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Raggedy Ann's picture

Post it on GOS and then let us know. I want to be there as heads start to explode and leave before they get any of their dead brain matter on me. Diablo Bomb

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"The “jumpers” reminded us that one day we will all face only one choice and that is how we will die, not how we will live." Chris Hedges on 9/11

It was fun reading. Couldn't stand it & only got about 1/2 of the comments.
The funniest were the attacks of C99. Some folks must be reading here a whole lot, and now quoting at GOS.

Great PR. Force out people who don't agree with you, and then condemn them for going to another ( MUCH BETTER) place and then condemn that place cuz they're there.

Windoscks for sale, getcha' Windsocks here. Speaking of Windsocks, anyone wanna bet that ( Dog Forbid) Shrillary does win, she changes her name back to Hillary Rodham, with the excuse there can't be two Clinton presidents, and in honor of her mother ( who only had that name by a supposedly horrible marriage, which Shrillary milks now too!)

Agree - there should be NO MORE Clintons in the White House, no matter what they call themselves.

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at least.

This morning I couldn't resist a bit of snark to a DK diary and was sent a message from the admins about how these comments don't promote blah, blah, blah.... In the old days, it would have been recognized for what it was: snark.

SeaTurtle May 03 · 09:52:16 AM
Aww, the Diarist was ‘gobsmacked’?

Did someone’s fee-fees get hurt? awwww…..

What is that saying about heat and kitchens?

And I got lectured about bad manners and how rude I was and how that comment should have been flaggable... HAH! I felt as though I was Alice who had just dropped into the "mad hatter's tea party" and was now being lectured about manners

Anyway, I am not defending my actions nor asking for anyone else to defend them, but it is beyond bizarre the one sidedness of the censuring over there.

So, long story short. This is a great, great diary and a hugely important bit of information. And be guided by your best lights whether to drop it into the GOS swamp.

they have all been officially absorbed by the Borg.

Just don't be surprised.... that's all I am saying. Good luck...

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Sea Turtle

Now waiting for the flames of GOS

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tapu dali's picture

and I notice you've lost mojo. Be prepared for a nastygram from the mods.

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There are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns – the ones we don't know we don't know.

Lady Libertine's picture

you were gonna edit a bit, gj, before posting it there, "hillbot" will get ya dinged every time normally but now.... well they can have their little Happy Funland all to themselves.

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dkos.PNG

Hillarybot will get you dinged, but Berniebro is perfectly OK.
No double-standard here

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tapu dali's picture

Did you pull it or did "they"?

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There are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns – the ones we don't know we don't know.

and I reposted it without the Hillarybots line. Everything is the same otherwise.

I personally see no difference between Hillarybots and Berniebros. That's why I didn't give it a second thought.

I really no longer care much. Most of my essays don't go to DKos anymore anyway.

Although I did notice a good dairy by Bobswern today on the rec list.

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truly the inmates are running the sanitarium... they are mad, I read some of the comments... ugh...

good on you, gjohnsit.

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Sea Turtle

vtcc73's picture

I haven't been to TOP in about two weeks. I dropped in to see how your diary fared. Red State is the gold standard for crazy, dickish behavior in comments but it may have a challenger. It never gets old seeing TRIX, ever the prince of dickish, leading the charge with his boot licking minions. OK, it was old months ago. Now it's sanctioned, middle school shit. I T & R'd where possible and left, Tom. I'm sorry but it's going to be a long time before I go back there for much of anything. I'm impressed you're willing to keep up the good fight although I really don't see a good reason to endure that kind of childish abuse. You would have a better chance of swallowing a bowling ball whole or convincing teabaggers to love Obama.

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"Ah, but I was so much older then, I'm younger than that now..."

Roger Fox's picture

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FDR 9-23-33, "If we cannot do this one way, we will do it another way. But do it we will.

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The earth is a multibillion-year-old sphere.
The Nazis killed millions of Jews.
On 9/11/01 a Boeing 757 (AA77) flew into the Pentagon.
AGCC is happening.
If you cannot accept these facts, I cannot fake an interest in any of your opinions.

Cassiodorus's picture

Only you can prevent voter turnout!

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“When there's no fight over programme, the election becomes a casting exercise. Trump's win is the unstoppable consequence of this situation.” - Jean-Luc Melanchon

If the Democratic party showed no favor to any primary candidate until the primaries were over and if they encouraged as many candidates as possible to run, they wouldn't have this problem.

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Beware the bullshit factories.

I've seen countless posts on dkos touting a Dem Pres blow out with Hillary carrying Utah, GA, NC and every swing state. That's obviously not going to happen.

Hillary cannot carry enough Independents and millennials and will not even be able to turn out the base sufficiently.

Her favorables continue to plummet; the more she's out in front the voters, the more they hate her. Her unfavorable rating is now up to 54.8%. http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/bernie-sanders-favorable-ra...

The opposite is true for Bernie. His national favorables were at 16% immediately prior to his Presidential run announcement and now are at 51.8%. http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/bernie-sanders-favorable-ra... The more they get to know him, the more they like him.

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Cassiodorus's picture

and they're a bunch of neoliberals who hate Sanders' populist politics and would rather have a Republican in the White House than Bernie Sanders.

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“When there's no fight over programme, the election becomes a casting exercise. Trump's win is the unstoppable consequence of this situation.” - Jean-Luc Melanchon

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The earth is a multibillion-year-old sphere.
The Nazis killed millions of Jews.
On 9/11/01 a Boeing 757 (AA77) flew into the Pentagon.
AGCC is happening.
If you cannot accept these facts, I cannot fake an interest in any of your opinions.

pswaterspirit's picture

Not really sure she can win the blue states.

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Bollox Ref's picture

isn't exactly sky high (recent StarTrib poll).

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Gëzuar!!
from a reasonably stable genius.

A reminder, MA has a Republican Gov. Charlie Baker, after the MA Dems gave the nomination to Martha Coakley again ( it was still her turn cuz she lost to Scott Brown, and she was still a woman) & while we're remembering disasters, Republican Senator Scott Brown almost lost us ObamaCare, but Coakley's pollster, Celinda Lake didn't see it coming! Yeah, Democrats.

Bernie or Bust.

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W-a-a-y back, late 1980's, I moved to Washington DC, after living in London for many years, I was asked ( funny enough, by a good friend of Hillary Clinton's) to attend a "brain storming" meeting about organizing support for non-profit group. Didn't know the person sitting next to me, yup, CL.

So we all go around the table talking about how to help this organization. I'd done a lot of lobbying for nonprofits in the UK (called "knobbling") and organizing voters to contact their members of Parliament, etc.

So I asked about the % of people who were not registered to vote, and was there any kind of a GOTV effort. Well, CL turned on me, and almost spat out the words "WE don't do that, WE don't waste money on people who aren't registered to vote!"

I tried to smile, but must have looked like I was trying to swallow vomit! Disgusting, condescending, and dumb. Also, a Democrat of course. The Three D's and a C. Smile

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hester's picture

Saw my ophthalmologist yesterday... he's in his 50s (mid). I thought he was a registered Republican based on prior conversations... Well, not now. It's bizarre. He's a registered democrat but votes Republican in the GE (Bizarre, I know). He voted for Bernie in the primary and despises Hillary more than anyone I know. Knowing how fiscally conservative he is I asked why he voted for Bernie. His answer, "he's honest"..

He's voting for Herr Drumph in the GE, though his wife's vote may cancel his.

I do not think she will win. She might even lose some blue states.

I might not vote in November. I certainly won't vote for Trump or Hillary.

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Don't believe everything you think.

Bulldawg's picture

Vote for the down ticket.

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“Socialism never took root in America because the poor see themselves not as an exploited proletariat but as temporarily embarrassed millionaires.” - John Steinbeck

...if they're all playing the same game?

granted, some might be a bit more progressive than others but that is more the exception than the rule. current elected Democrats are all sitting on the bench waiting to get in the game and they seem quite willing to compromise economic safety nets for the working class to do so. screw the working people as long as they get theirs and $174,000 of your tax money each year and maybe become a lobbyist after retiring from the government.

no more straight ticket voting for me. that ended for me this election season. fear and bullying won't work on me. if you have a (D) next to your name then you are going to have to earn my vote with a progressive check list. i'm a NPP voter since 2000 and have always voted the Democratic ticket since 1980. sadly, nothing has significantly changed in the last 36 years even when Democrats had total control of the government. baby steps, piecemeal, incrementalism, triangulation. that agenda needs to die because the working class is losing too much ground and dying in the process.

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featheredsprite's picture

for down ticket democrats, even if you leave the presidential area blank. Okay?

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Life is strong. I'm weak, but Life is strong.

wants the elections to go:
"So, of the 30 districts with a Latino population of 25% or more currently held by Republicans, the DCCC goes into the cycle having written off at least 22 of them. Get your head around that. Ten Trumps could be running but as long as Nancy Pelosi insists on putting her corrupt, incompetent cronies in as DCCC chairs, the Democrats will never take back the House. The Democrats were handed a gift in the form of Trump... and they already blew it."
- See more at: http://downwithtyranny.blogspot.com/#sthash.lLmtTRXj.dpuf

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Roger Fox's picture

Over 24 Democratic debates in 2008. 11 of them before a single state race or the NY deadline to switch party affiliation on Oct 9th.

In 2016 6 debates. All of them after Oct 9th. Most of them scheduled for non prime time, like on the weekend.

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FDR 9-23-33, "If we cannot do this one way, we will do it another way. But do it we will.

DWS/DNC/DLC/Third Way only added debates because of the fuss we were making!

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Using the Green Papers last week, and it is alarming. I'm really hoping the Independent and liberal voters have a reason to be motivated in November (other than just voting against the Republican.) It's really a shame all states don't have open primaries - those turnout numbers wouldn't be so grim. And, November would be looking a lot better by now.

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