I'm not sure how residential real estate market turns out, but the commercial real estate market is doomed. It was in trouble before Covid, but since then it's become a crisis.

Office building prices are plunging over the next two years, and they likely aren't recovering for decades, according to Capital Economics deputy chief property economist Kiran Raichura.

"The reduction in office demand due to remote work will cause a hit to NOIs on a par with, or worse than, that experienced by malls over the last 6 years," he said in a note last week, referring to the net operating incomes of office building owners.

That could involve the value of office buildings crashing 35% by the end of 2025, Raichura predicted, pointing to a survey from Knight Frank and Cresa that found that 56% of firms globally allow hybrid work and 12% intend on allowing workers to work "fully flexibly" from home or at the office.

Meanwhile, data on office keycard swipes indicate that physical occupancy is just 35%.

The U.S. commercial real estate market is over $20 Trillion in size. More importantly, it's not regional.

The results are evident in mounting strain around the country — from New York developers handing back obsolete office buildings to lenders, to foreclosures on heavily indebted apartment complexes in Houston and defaults on hotels and shopping malls in San Francisco. Banks, under scrutiny from regulators and investors, are now beginning to offload even performing property loans at a loss.

The housing market that we all know is unlikely to collapse like it did in 2008, although some amount of price correction is inevitable.
That doesn't mean that the global economy is in good shape.
China's real estate market is in real trouble.

“We see persistent weaknesses in the property sector, mainly related to lower-tier cities and private developer financing, and believe there appears no quick fix for them,” Goldman Sachs economists led by China economist Lisheng Wang said in a weekend note.

Goldman’s economists said the property market is expected to see an “L-shaped recovery” — defined as steep declines followed by a slow recovery rate.
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According to Reuters, the government invested some $144 billion for the first seven months of 2018 to compensate residents of homes that were demolished in a bid to boost home sales and prices in smaller cities struggling with unsold homes.

China has been over-investing in real estate for decades.
An even more serious issue is a developing world economic crisis.

The interview revealed that three of the world’s largest economies – the EU, the U.S. and China – are all slowing simultaneously. Georgieva pointed out that as bad as that looks for the three governances, it’s even worse for emerging and developing economies across the globe. She says that one-third of the world economy will be in recession in 2023.

The world borrows in dollars. This is terrible for impoverished nations during a period of rising interest rates.