What is happening in OR Congressional District 5?
Submitted by Nastarana on Fri, 11/11/2022 - 11:57am
The Democratic candidate took out a long time high seniority Zionist congressman, Snyder. Now it looks like she is losing. What I suspect is that the same money bags which went after Turner and Summer Lee, not to mention a host of other progressive candidates across the country also targeted the Democrat in this race. Also, the Big Ag/GMO coalition wants to own the Willamette and Rogue River valleys for seed growing, so money and influence from that quarter may have been involved on behalf of the Republican candidate. Can anyone from Oregon or the West Coast shed some light on this OR Cong. Dist. 5 election?
Comments
This might help a bit.
According to Politico only 84 % of the votes have been counted.
This helps understand the race.
https://ballotpedia.org/Oregon%27s_5th_Congressional_District_election,_...
@humphrey Thank you. That helps a
Thank you. That helps a little. I am wondering, what is DeRemer's appeal? Cuteness? I saw nothing on her website about issues.
Mary Bennett
Happens to be my CD...
and my preferred candidate so maybe I can provide some semi-informed context.
This with the caveat that I'm overseas and don't physically reside in the district.
Oregon's redistricting figures into this - neither McCleod-Skinner nor myself would
have been in this district previously. CD-5 used to be all on the west side of the Cascades,
Schraeder, the incumbent's district ran through part of the Willamette Valley to the coast.
When Oregon got an extra CD this time around (going from five to six seats), Dems with their supermajority were attempting to keep the Republicans to their one safe seat and garner the rest.
So, they carved a new, seemingly safe, CD-6 out of the mid-Willamette Valley and gave the coastal parts of CD-5 to CD's 1 and 4. Then they extended CD-5 south and east to take in the purplish Bend area which (along with McCleod-Skinner and myself) had previously been in the deep-red 2nd District - where M-S had previously run in 2018 against then-incumbent Greg Walden. I actually voted for her...
Having taken Bend (Central Oregon) from the 2nd District, they added to it by giving it more of consevative SW Oregon, makining the 2nd even redder and helping to protect Peter Defazio (CD-4) by lopping off deplorable bits of his district where he had had an uncomfortably close challenge in 2020. Defazio, to no one's deep regret ended up retiring anyway.
In the event, there ended up being three competitive races, one of which - the supposedly safe new CD-6 still has not been called.
Schrader was the most exposed incumbent even before, and likely not woke enough to meet current Dem 'standards'. And anyway was very much in the DINO/corporate Dem mode (4th or 5th-highest recipient of Big Pharma $$ in the entire Congress should give some indication). No great loss. McCleod-Skinner would have been an improvement.
As to what Chavez-DeRemer's appeal was, probably not being a woke-Dem and having a reasonable track record of accomplishment in her previous work as mayor and an appealing, second-generation immigrant background didn't hurt. Neither did her focus on gun rights, ridding schools of CRT, lockdowns and mask requirements, criticism of open borders and out of control crime. And while she personally supports at least some restrictions on abortion, she is opposed to national mandates and for it to be dealt with on the state level - which may have cost her some support, but not critically it seems.
Looks like she's been declared winner now - this article from Oregon Live goes into a fair bit of detail about the campaign:
Republican Lori Chavez-DeRemer wins Oregon’s 5th District seat in Congress, flipping longtime Democratic seat red
She's not *that* cute...
Attack ad:
[video:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ifFoywznMD4]
Early primary ad:
Rs spent $6M on behalf of C-D.
Uh Huh, just like I thought. And the clueless Democratic Central Committee forgot about this race, which means they lose control of the House. Nice going, guys and gals.
Some enterprising Oregon reporter could make a name for him or her self tacking from where that $7M came.
It is interesting that Linn and Marion Ctys. were the ones which went for C-D. I have not lived in OR since the 70s, so have lost track of demographic trends.
Mary Bennett
Wokeness is the Dems
Being the Washington Generals and trying to lose to the Globetrotters.
Just like adding redneck Bend was trying to lose CD 5.
Bend is "redneck"?
Compared to *what*?
Voter registration in Deschutes County (of which Bend is the largest (only) city, making up more than half of the county population) is pretty much evenly divided D/R/I. The only place bluer (or blue at all) in the current CD-2 is Ashland, which was hardly feasible to include in CD-5.
As it is, the new district boundaries that put most of Bend in CD-5 actually leave some parts of it and most of the rural and more conservative parts of Deschutes County in (red) CD-2. Then, in SW Oregon, Douglas County (formerly all CD-4) was split in half, with the effect of making CD-2 even huger and redder (it already covered more territory than most *states*) and lopping off conservative territory from CD-4 to make it bluer...
Deschutes Co. went for Drazan for governor, but Kotek and Betsy Johnson's combined totals were higher than Drazan's. Rabid gun control Measure 114, which passed statewide by 1% lost in Deschutes - but only by less than a thousand votes of 100,000+ cast. The state representative race in my district was decided by less than 300 votes out of over 30,000 cast...
Bend comes closer to woke joke than to redneck and the county as a whole is about as purple as you can find... on the cusp of the urban/rural divide:
Oregon Governor race county results map
Deschutes (Bend) in the center w/the stairstep boundary on the right side)
Measure 114 (Gun Control) map:
Source
Redistricting did interesting things around here
This area had historically been in the 10th Congressional District, but the new redistricting shoved it over into the 6th. So far the only noticeable difference is the severance of the connection with the 10th District Representative, who was quite communicative and vaguely populist. Not much is expected from the (entrenched) 6th District Rep.
There is no justice. There can be no peace.