Don’t say we didn’t warn you – Symposium of China’s top think tank sends classic, pre-war warning to provocative Pelosi

Will the woman with a Michael Jackson nose create a military response from China?

"Don't say we didn't warn you!" - a phrase that was used by the People's Daily in 1962 before China was forced to fight the border war with India and ahead of the 1979 China-Vietnam War, was frequently mentioned during a forum held Friday by a high-level Chinese think tank, as analysts warned that open military options and comprehensive countermeasures ranging from the economy to diplomacy from China await if US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi gambles with a visit to the Taiwan island during her Asia tour.

On Thursday night, Chinese President Xi Jinping held a phone conversation with US President Joe Biden, during which he once again warned the US about the seriousness and significance of the Taiwan question and said, "Public opinion cannot be defied. Those who play with fire will perish by it. It is hoped that the US will be clear-eyed about this."

In the recent week, in response to Pelosi's potential visit to the island of Taiwan, a string of warnings have also been made by different ministries and departments of China. On Friday, the Institute of Taiwan Studies in Chinese Academy of Social Sciences - the highest-level think tank - held a forum with analysts and discussed the damage of Pelosi's possible Taiwan island visit to the China-US relations, cross-Straits stability and regional and global peace, and China's countermeasures.

Sending fighter jets to intercept Pelosi's plane, declaring air and maritime zones around the island of Taiwan as restriction zones for military exercises … China's responses will be systematical and not limited to small scale given the severity of Pelosi's move and the damage to the political trust of China-US relations, Yang Mingjie, head of the Institute of Taiwan Studies in Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told the Global Times.
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Yang noted that China has reiterated its opposition to Pelosi's possible visit and used the phrase "yanzhen yidai" - literally meaning "streamlining army formation to wait for the enemy" - to show that we have made all preparations for combats or any challenges.
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The backdrop of Pelosi's visit is different from that of the 1995-96 crisis - China-US relations have changed, the comparison of strength between China and the US has changed, and the island of Taiwan itself has changed - and the way the mainland will cope with Pelosi's visit will be different and may bring wider consequences and impact, Wu Yongping, director of the Institute of Taiwan Studies, Tsinghua University, told the Global Times.

Wu noted that the Chinese mainland's countermeasures will be comprehensive in military, diplomacy, economy and public opinions. If Pelosi insists on making the visit, China can turn the incident into an opportunity to take control of the Taiwan Straits situation and push the reunification process, and such consequence should be borne by the island and the US as the international community will also clearly see the provocation from the US and that any actions China will take are out of determination to defend its sovereignty.

"If so, will Pelosi regret catalyzing China's reunification process?" Wu asked.

The phrase "Don't say we didn't warn you" had also been frequently mentioned by analysts when talking about the disastrous consequences that may be brought about by Pelosi during the Friday forum.

"Don't say we didn't warn you" has become a key phrase used by Chinese official media as the most severe warning previously issued before shots were fired in military operations. The phrase has been used several times before, such as in 1962 and 1978, not long before China's military operations against provocations by Indian and Vietnamese troops, respectively.
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"The US should not underestimate the Chinese people's determination to defend core interests on sovereignty, integrity and security at any time. It should also not repeat the miscalculation it made in the 1950s in the Korean War. Despite not being strong at that time, China still had the courage to fight a war when it was pushed to the corner, it will surely not sit idly by this time," said Yang.

Many analysts also stressed that once Pelosi visits the island of Taiwan, it will escalate the cross-Straits tensions, greatly damage the political trust of China-US relations, and bring disastrous effects to regional peace and economy.

Pelosi, out of her paranoid anti-China ideas and selfish political interests, has provoked the Taiwan question and sent a seriously wrong signal to the secessionist forces in Taiwan. If it leads to the intensification and loss of control of secessionist activities, it is detrimental to US national interests and it is the US that has to foot the bill, said Zhu Weidong, deputy director from the Institute of Taiwan Studies in Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.

I think this is a dumb move by Pelosi and an unwarranted risk to take because there’s no way IMO that our military can fight on two fronts with Russia and China let alone either country. Both Russia and China have better military equipment because our defense companies are more interested in keeping their shareholders happy and rich then they are in making quality equipment. Just look at how some of our weapons are doing in Ukraine against Russia.

Also see Moon of Alabama for more on this.