A few more days like this and Wall Street will start to panic
Do you want to know just how serious things have gotten? Do a Google search for 'stock market crash'. There are almost no results returned in the last couple days.
The top result is from Motley Fool. Stock Market Crash: 3 Absolute Bargains Just Begging to Be Bought
Wall Street's 'fear gauge' shows that everyone is still expecting a bottom, despite trillions of dollars of paper wealth being exterminated.
But that's nothing compared to the bond market bloodbath.
Almost never has the U.S. bond market lost as much money as in the first four months of 2022, according to Edward McQuarrie, an emeritus professor of business at Santa Clara University who studies asset returns over the centuries.
Long-term Treasury bonds lost more than 18% this year through April 30. That surpasses the previous record, a loss of 17% in the 12 months ending in March 1980, says Mr. McQuarrie. The broad bond market has performed worse so far in 2022, he says, than in any complete year since 1792 except one. That was all the way back in 1842, when a deep depression approached rock-bottom.
Stocks and bonds haven't gone down in tandem since the 1970's. There's no one working on Wall Street that has ever traded in a market like this. They don't have a clue how to protect themselves, nor any of their clients.
Which means sometime in the near future someone big is going to implode, and that'll take everyone by surprise.
Comments
So pull out?
Is that what you are saying here before it’s too late or is it already too late?
Was Humpty Dumpty pushed?
I just sold most of my positions
and I had commodity stocks, which are the ones that are supposed to do best in stagflation.
When I saw that the volatility index wasn't going berserk then that told me that no one suspects a real bear market.
Thank you
I’ll get it out tomorrow. I’ve already gotten hit a bit from the last few months and kept thinking nows the time.
The little bit of good news is that interest is moving up.
Was Humpty Dumpty pushed?
Knowing my luck
the stock market will start a bear market rally tomorrow (i.e. a sharp short upturn in an otherwise down-trending market).
So I wouldn't get in a rush.
Pardon?
I know you have that backwards.
Bull = up
Bear = down
As a side note....I pulled out of the market completely over a year ago and have lost nothing especially sleep.
Regardless of the path in life I chose, I realize it's always forward, never straight.
Bear Market Rally
After the stock market crash of 1929, there was a bear market rally for 3 months. Stocks didn't bottom out until 1932.
As I was saying
the stock market is up big today, in a bear market rally.
Generally bear market rallies cut around 50% of the previous losses.
An old phrase on Wall Street is:
Bull markets climb a wall of worry.
Bear markets descend a wall of hope.
The fact that the "fear index" (aka volatility index) shows that people are still looking to "buy the dip" (aka BTFD) is proof to me that this market is going a lot lower.
Let's break out the tiniest violin in the world.
One of the casualties of the tech-led crash is Palantir.
So this is bad? No, this is good. It's very, very good.
Why is it so good?
Oh, this is an Orwellian-type company that crashed and burned.
I may shed a tear from my one good eye for Palantir
Party like 1842?
Aren't some of those implosions going to be pension funds?
In Japan (according to my limited understanding) the Bank of Japan started some years back buying up all the national issued government bonds which used to be the main asset of entities such as the Japan Postal Savings system and major public and private pension funds - and then set 'guidance' for them to hold a certain percentage (half, IIRC) of foreign assets - forcing them into the casino, as it were.
Never did promise to end well...
BTW - I've been trying to narrow it down to three things crying out to be bought, but can't seem to pare it down beyond these: beans, rice, gold, silver, ammo (assuming you already have something to use it in), fertilizer, heirloom seeds, more ammo...
Any advice on those?
From Micheal Liebowitz via Zero Hedge:
Japan's Role In Global Financial (In)Stability, Part 1: Liquidity Crisis In The Making
source
How do you know this?
"There's no one working on Wall Street that has ever traded in a market like this. They don't have a clue how to protect themselves, nor any of their clients."
People who worked on Wall Street in their 20's could still be there, and certainly there are advisors who are still around.
"Without the right to offend, freedom of speech does not exist." Taslima Nasrin
There are a few
But they are those extremely rare old men who made their millions and decided not to retire.
My statement above is something that I've heard repeated over and over again. If you haven't made your millions on Wall Street by the time you hit 50 then you've been fired.
Fired...by whom?
I don't get how a "job" on Wall Street works.
Exactly how accurate is the analogy to a casino?
In the Land of the Blind, the One-Eyed Man is declared mentally ill for describing colors.
Yes Virginia, there is a Global Banking Conspiracy!
You can believe me or not
it's your choice.
But you should do your own research first.
Just as a point of fact, this is in today's NY Times.
I've explained why this was inevitable several times over the last five years, but maybe I should do a short refresher.
Credibility/credulity is not my issue
Comprehension is.
In the Land of the Blind, the One-Eyed Man is declared mentally ill for describing colors.
Yes Virginia, there is a Global Banking Conspiracy!
The most obvious question to me...
...what, exactly, happened in 1842 that would have such an effect?
This was long after the War of 1812, and well before the Civil War; was there even a global stock market back then, and just how much resemblance could it have borne to today's?
I'm trying to find a context/causality beyond just the market and its circular, Ouija board-like logic.
In the Land of the Blind, the One-Eyed Man is declared mentally ill for describing colors.
Yes Virginia, there is a Global Banking Conspiracy!
Actually it happened in 1839
President Jackson went to war with America's Second central bank and got it shut down. This broke the control that bankers had over the creation of money (until 1913).
But on the way out the central bankers threw a hissy fit and crushed America's credit markets and a real estate bubble (that they had created).
It was America's first real depression.
that's almost LOL-worthy
It sure sounds like him.
I was going to ask happened in 1913, then I found this: https://freemansperspective.com/1913-america/
Anything to add or quibble about?
All I'll say is I always reject fatalism, but other than that, this seems to make a lot of good points; I realize now that this whole partisan segregation thing we've had going on for, well, certainly my whole life, has put us in a nasty "Dark Crystal"-esque situation...which recently appears to have been advancing into an H.G. Wells "Eloi VS Morlocks" paradigm, nearly 800 millennia ahead of schedule!
In the Land of the Blind, the One-Eyed Man is declared mentally ill for describing colors.
Yes Virginia, there is a Global Banking Conspiracy!
The first stock market
was created in 1521 in Antwerp, Belgium.
Neither Russia nor China is our enemy.
Neither Iran nor Venezuela are threatening America.
Cuba is a dead horse, stop beating it.
Yes, but...
...how broad was its reach? How many corporations based in how many countries were on the scene?
In the Land of the Blind, the One-Eyed Man is declared mentally ill for describing colors.
Yes Virginia, there is a Global Banking Conspiracy!
Of Course The Markets Will Crash
One of my heroes is John Kenneth Galbraith. He made a ton of pithy comments over his long and prolific professional life, including one that went something like this:
Financial Genius consists of good grooming and a rising market.
The crash that has finally started "should" have occurred two years ago based on classical market theory. Global aggregate demand plunged with the lockdowns, and a huge portion of the brick and mortar economy was run out of business, along with devasting declines for the travel and hospitality industries. The Fed and the other central banks had begun a Fiat Money campaign as of 2019, and the various markets were already headed toward another bubble burst when the first hints of Covid Trouble hit our consciousness early in 2020. The Dow, for example, lost a third of its "value" between February 7 and March 20, hitting its lowest level since the Obama Administration.
The funny money strategy kicked in as the lockdowns took effect and inflated all manner of markets to their idiotic peak on December 31, 2021. This Pandemic Rally almost doubled the "value" of the Dow, rising from just over 19,000 to the all time high above 36,000 as this year began.
Crashes always zig and zag downward, as Jjohnsit relates. You see in these numbers a major clue to the downward range to contemplate with that Pre Covid crash. Everything above that 19,000 level is a product of insane monetary policy that is coming close to its end game.
I am not at all sure about what the collateral damage will be. Paper wealth that has been created since the W Bush crash will be the first to evaporate, and it is hard to guess what that will mean to the rest of us.
But there is no rational reason to conclude that the small number of companies that comprise the Dow got to be twice as valuable between February of 2020 and May of 2022.
Its most obvious impact will be on retirement accounts. Beyond that we are heading deeper and deeper into a complex of insane social policies, led by the bizarre ambition to "weaken" Russia by denying ourselves access to Russian products like energy and fertilizer. I continue to disagree with C-99 members who attribute this policy to the stupidity of NeoCons, but the why is irrelevant to the what and the when of this impending crash.
Historic Market Crash is the What. Pretty damn soon if not already is the When.
I cried when I wrote this song. Sue me if I play too long.