By New Year the pandemic will be essentially over

Submitted by gjohnsit on Wed, 10/06/2021 - 6:38pm

Coronavirus cases and deaths are declining virtually everywhere in the world, including in the United States.

On August 31, I posted this essay about what the historical pandemic charts teach us. Based on those charts I predicted that the pandemic would end in a couple months.
Four weeks later researchers at the CDC said almost the exact same thing, but with more details.

Considering the way that the COVID culture war is reaching all-time highs, while the pandemic is approaching an end, it reminds me of people's attitude towards crime. The crime rate peaked in the early 90's and then declined by roughly 50%. Yet people are convinced that crime is higher than ever.
So the COVID culture war will continue long after it is no longer relevant.

I will not be responding to any comments here, because I don't want to deal with the culture wars. As far as I'm concerned, any reaction to this news other than relief is strange.

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COVID-19

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Comments

Submitted by CB on Wed, 10/06/2021 - 7:22pm

That's certainly gonna put a crimp

in mandating vaccines. But then again, we've been here before and the cases rose to produce another wave.

Of course TPTB could blame in on failure to vaccinate children:

The modelers developed four potential scenarios, taking into account whether or not childhood vaccinations take off and whether a more infectious new variant should emerge.

The most likely scenario, says Lessler, is that children do get vaccinated and no super-spreading variant emerges. In that case, the combo model forecasts that new infections would slowly, but fairly continuously, drop from about 140,000 today now to about 9,000 a day by March.

The pandemic could end because it ran out of susceptible people - either because they were killed off or got infected and carry natural immunity:

"The biggest driver is immunity," he explains. "We've seen really big delta waves. The virus has eaten up the susceptible people. So there are less people out there to infect." The virus is still fighting back, he says, but "immunity always wins out eventually."

Then again, we could get hit with another, more lethal variant:

Another caveat: This scenario assumes that the U.S. doesn't get hit with a new variant that's even more contagious than delta. If it does, a bleaker scenario from the Modeling Hub projects far worse numbers: just below 50,000 cases a day by next March. But Lessler emphasizes this is very hypothetical.

In the end we should keep our fingers crossed:

So like many Americans, Dean is keeping her fingers crossed.

Submitted by janis b on Wed, 10/06/2021 - 9:28pm

You don’t want to deal with what?

Is it what your experience or statistics reveal to you - is it both, or neither? How much is the result of self or externally induced hysteria?

Submitted by janis b on Wed, 10/06/2021 - 9:32pm

where/how did we lose our sanity

@janis b

Submitted by janis b on Thu, 10/07/2021 - 12:10am

I just re-read my comment

@janis b

and want to re-articulate. I am sorry for any misunderstanding because of my lack of clarity ...

"How much is the result of self or externally induced hysteria?" - By 'self' I was not implying you gj, but universally, all of us.

Submitted by gjohnsit on Thu, 10/07/2021 - 11:31am

The COVID lockdowns broke the brains of a lot of people

@janis b
RATM predicted this 30 years ago.

I give a shout out to the living dead
Who stood and watched as the feds cold centralized
So serene on the screen
You were mesmerised
Cellular phones soundin' a death tone
Corporations cold
Turn ya to stone before ya realise
They load the clip in omnicolour
Said they pack the 9, they fire it at prime time
Sleeping gas, every home was like Alcatraz
And mutha fuckas lost their minds

Submitted by Pluto's Republic on Wed, 10/06/2021 - 10:38pm

That would be interesting if the pandemic abruptly ended.

Because what it leaves in its wake would be a massive data store that describes every approach taken to end the viral epidemic, and its outcome. After careful analysis, it would form a new factual paradigm for best-practices in public health and a new standard by which people can determine whether or not their government was really competent to lead, or whether it is corrupt or ignorant and needs to be replaced.

When the pandemic began, I think people generally expected that a solution would soon be found and we would put the virus behind us. That is pretty much what happened in 1918-19 with the world's deadliest pandemic, the Spanish Flu. It simply left, and didn't come back. So if Covid-19 did the same, there would be little surprise or curiosity with such an ending. It would feel natural and Covid-19 would be regarded as a naturally forming virus that is apparently no match for frequent hand-washing.

Does this sound right to you? It must, because this logic underlies your prediction. (Although the vagaries of what the CDC predicts about any modern disease is hardy an endorsement.) The internal logic of the historical patterns will suffice.

I could easily sign on and hope you are right. The science, however, would need to be rewritten to match this outcome, and it must be tweaked to explain it. Plus, there are some real world outcomes that point in different directions that need to be mitigated and resolved. For example:

Israel was down to a handful of daily COVID cases. Now it's around 11,000. What happened?

Israel has been one of the focal points of the pandemic in 2021 owing to its rapid rollout of COVID-19 vaccines. By late February, authorities had administered at least one dose to 50% of the population, with much of Israel’s immunisation programme using Pfizer vaccines.

Society then in effect reopened across the summer of 2021. However, since then Israel has reported significant outbreaks, with over 10,000 confirmed new cases being recorded each day in early September.

Meanwhile, Israeli health officials reported what appeared to be a waning efficacy of the vaccine, including among those who had been double vaccinated. Data showed that of the serious cases being admitted to hospital, around 60 per cent of patients were people who had been fully vaccinated....

"Many public health professionals feel that what happened in Israel was a demonstration of population immunity, or herd immunity. [But the] delta variant, with its higher infectious rate, coupled with waning immunity, has proven us wrong," said Dr. Eyal Leshem, a clinical associate professor in internal medicine and infectious diseases at the Sackler School of Medicine in Tel Aviv University....

There are a number of different social and viral factors that are mentioned as the cause of the setback, but all countries have the same factors to deal with. Some deal with them in a scientific fashion, and some do not have the steadfastness or vision to do so. Then, there is the problematic fact that so many countries in the world have yet to receive any vaccines at all:

Vaccine monopolies make cost of vaccinating the world against COVID at least 5 times more expensive than it could be

New analysis shows that the firms Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna were charging governments as much as $41 billion above the estimated cost of production. Colombia, for example, has potentially overpaid by as much as $375 million for its doses of the Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna vaccines, in comparison to the estimated cost price.

Despite a rapid rise in COVID-19 cases and deaths across the developing world, Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna have sold over 90 percent of their vaccines so far to rich countries, charging up to 24 times the potential cost of production.

Not enough humans have the moral sense to react to this alarming information with anger and shame. This suggests that even if the current pandemic did abruptly end, one would be compelled to question whether our species has what it takes to avert the very real extinction events that are coming our way.

Submitted by janis b on Wed, 10/06/2021 - 11:08pm

Hi Pluto

@Pluto's Republic

Either they have the means and are sadly and impotently numbed, or they’re trying to make ends meet and save themselves and their dependents from oblivion. There are probably more reasons.

Not enough humans have the moral sense to react to this information with anger and shame. Thus, even if the pandemic did abruptly end, one would be compelled to question whether our species has what it takes to avert the very real extinction events that are coming our way.

Because what it leaves in its wake would be a massive data store that describes every approach taken to end the viral epidemic, and its outcome. After careful analysis, it would form a new factual paradigm for best-practices in public health and a new standard by which people can determine whether or not their government was really competent to lead, or whether it is corrupt or ignorant and needs to be replaced.

When the pandemic began, I think people generally expected that a solution would soon be found and we would put the virus behind us. That is pretty much what happened in 1918-19 with the world's deadliest pandemic, the Spanish Flu. It simply left, and didn't come back. So if Covid-19 did the same, there would be little surprise or curiosity with such an ending. It would feel natural and Covid-19 would be regarded as a naturally forming virus that is apparently no match for frequent hand-washing.

Does this sound right to you? It must, because this logic underlies your prediction. (Although the vagaries of what the CDC predicts about any modern disease is hardy an endorsement.) The internal logic of the historical patterns will suffice.

I could easily sign on and hope you are right. The science, however, would need to be rewritten to match this outcome, and it must be tweaked to explain it. Plus, there are some real world outcomes that point in different directions that need to be mitigated and resolved. For example:

Israel was down to a handful of daily COVID cases. Now it's around 11,000. What happened?

Israel has been one of the focal points of the pandemic in 2021 owing to its rapid rollout of COVID-19 vaccines. By late February, authorities had administered at least one dose to 50% of the population, with much of Israel’s immunisation programme using Pfizer vaccines.

Society then in effect reopened across the summer of 2021. However, since then Israel has reported significant outbreaks, with over 10,000 confirmed new cases being recorded each day in early September.

Meanwhile, Israeli health officials reported what appeared to be a waning efficacy of the vaccine, including among those who had been double vaccinated. Data showed that of the serious cases being admitted to hospital, around 60 per cent of patients were people who had been fully vaccinated....

"Many public health professionals feel that what happened in Israel was a demonstration of population immunity, or herd immunity. [But the] delta variant, with its higher infectious rate, coupled with waning immunity, has proven us wrong," said Dr. Eyal Leshem, a clinical associate professor in internal medicine and infectious diseases at the Sackler School of Medicine in Tel Aviv University....

.

There are a number of different social and viral factors that are mentioned as the cause of the setback, but all countries have the same factors to deal with. Some deal with them in a scientific fashion, and some do not have the steadfastness or vision to do so. Then, there is the problematic fact that so many countries in the world have yet to receive any vaccines at all:

Vaccine monopolies make cost of vaccinating the world against COVID at least 5 times more expensive than it could be

New analysis shows that the firms Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna were charging governments as much as $41 billion above the estimated cost of production. Colombia, for example, has potentially overpaid by as much as $375 million for its doses of the Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna vaccines, in comparison to the estimated cost price.

Despite a rapid rise in COVID-19 cases and deaths across the developing world, Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna have sold over 90 percent of their vaccines so far to rich countries, charging up to 24 times the potential cost of production.

.

Not enough humans have the moral sense to react to this alarming information with anger and shame. This suggests that even if the current pandemic did abruptly end, one would be compelled to question whether our species has what it takes to avert the very real extinction events that are coming our way.

Submitted by CB on Thu, 10/07/2021 - 12:38am

The Spanish Flu didn't disappear

@Pluto's Republic
It mutated into a less virulent form but it's still with us. The Spanish Flu was caused by the H1N1 influenza A virus.

Obama Declares Swine Flu a National Emergency
24 October 2009

President Barack Obama has declared the H1N1 swine flu a national emergency.

His proclamation, signed Friday night and released by the White House Saturday, will allow hospitals and doctors' offices to get legal waivers of federal rules so they can handle large numbers of sick people as the outbreak spreads.
...
The H1N1 swine flu is now widespread in 46 states, and there have been 1,000 laboratory-confirmed deaths since April, according to the latest estimates released Friday by U.S. health officials.

Dr. Thomas R. Frieden, director of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, told a news conference Friday, "We have already had millions of cases of pandemic influenza in the United States, and the numbers continue to increase."

At the same time, he said, production delays continue to hamper distribution of the H1N1 swine flu vaccine.
...

Because what it leaves in its wake would be a massive data store that describes every approach taken to end the viral epidemic, and its outcome. After careful analysis, it would form a new factual paradigm for best-practices in public health and a new standard by which people can determine whether or not their government was really competent to lead, or whether it is corrupt or ignorant and needs to be replaced.

When the pandemic began, I think people generally expected that a solution would soon be found and we would put the virus behind us. That is pretty much what happened in 1918-19 with the world's deadliest pandemic, the Spanish Flu. It simply left, and didn't come back. So if Covid-19 did the same, there would be little surprise or curiosity with such an ending. It would feel natural and Covid-19 would be regarded as a naturally forming virus that is apparently no match for frequent hand-washing.

Does this sound right to you? It must, because this logic underlies your prediction. (Although the vagaries of what the CDC predicts about any modern disease is hardy an endorsement.) The internal logic of the historical patterns will suffice.

I could easily sign on and hope you are right. The science, however, would need to be rewritten to match this outcome, and it must be tweaked to explain it. Plus, there are some real world outcomes that point in different directions that need to be mitigated and resolved. For example:

Israel was down to a handful of daily COVID cases. Now it's around 11,000. What happened?

Israel has been one of the focal points of the pandemic in 2021 owing to its rapid rollout of COVID-19 vaccines. By late February, authorities had administered at least one dose to 50% of the population, with much of Israel’s immunisation programme using Pfizer vaccines.

Society then in effect reopened across the summer of 2021. However, since then Israel has reported significant outbreaks, with over 10,000 confirmed new cases being recorded each day in early September.

Meanwhile, Israeli health officials reported what appeared to be a waning efficacy of the vaccine, including among those who had been double vaccinated. Data showed that of the serious cases being admitted to hospital, around 60 per cent of patients were people who had been fully vaccinated....

"Many public health professionals feel that what happened in Israel was a demonstration of population immunity, or herd immunity. [But the] delta variant, with its higher infectious rate, coupled with waning immunity, has proven us wrong," said Dr. Eyal Leshem, a clinical associate professor in internal medicine and infectious diseases at the Sackler School of Medicine in Tel Aviv University....

.

There are a number of different social and viral factors that are mentioned as the cause of the setback, but all countries have the same factors to deal with. Some deal with them in a scientific fashion, and some do not have the steadfastness or vision to do so. Then, there is the problematic fact that so many countries in the world have yet to receive any vaccines at all:

Vaccine monopolies make cost of vaccinating the world against COVID at least 5 times more expensive than it could be

New analysis shows that the firms Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna were charging governments as much as $41 billion above the estimated cost of production. Colombia, for example, has potentially overpaid by as much as $375 million for its doses of the Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna vaccines, in comparison to the estimated cost price.

Despite a rapid rise in COVID-19 cases and deaths across the developing world, Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna have sold over 90 percent of their vaccines so far to rich countries, charging up to 24 times the potential cost of production.

.

Not enough humans have the moral sense to react to this alarming information with anger and shame. This suggests that even if the current pandemic did abruptly end, one would be compelled to question whether our species has what it takes to avert the very real extinction events that are coming our way.

Submitted by Battle of Blair... on Thu, 10/07/2021 - 11:26am

@Pluto's Republic perhaps the vaccine is

@Pluto's Republic perhaps the vaccine is how they will deal with climate change? As Bill Gates made clear, dramatically reduce the population, save the planet. As many scientists warned, the vaccine has unknown risks.

Strrility being one of the greatest.

And , you say, Bill Gates bought out a lot of Pharma?

Because what it leaves in its wake would be a massive data store that describes every approach taken to end the viral epidemic, and its outcome. After careful analysis, it would form a new factual paradigm for best-practices in public health and a new standard by which people can determine whether or not their government was really competent to lead, or whether it is corrupt or ignorant and needs to be replaced.

When the pandemic began, I think people generally expected that a solution would soon be found and we would put the virus behind us. That is pretty much what happened in 1918-19 with the world's deadliest pandemic, the Spanish Flu. It simply left, and didn't come back. So if Covid-19 did the same, there would be little surprise or curiosity with such an ending. It would feel natural and Covid-19 would be regarded as a naturally forming virus that is apparently no match for frequent hand-washing.

Does this sound right to you? It must, because this logic underlies your prediction. (Although the vagaries of what the CDC predicts about any modern disease is hardy an endorsement.) The internal logic of the historical patterns will suffice.

I could easily sign on and hope you are right. The science, however, would need to be rewritten to match this outcome, and it must be tweaked to explain it. Plus, there are some real world outcomes that point in different directions that need to be mitigated and resolved. For example:

Israel was down to a handful of daily COVID cases. Now it's around 11,000. What happened?

Israel has been one of the focal points of the pandemic in 2021 owing to its rapid rollout of COVID-19 vaccines. By late February, authorities had administered at least one dose to 50% of the population, with much of Israel’s immunisation programme using Pfizer vaccines.

Society then in effect reopened across the summer of 2021. However, since then Israel has reported significant outbreaks, with over 10,000 confirmed new cases being recorded each day in early September.

Meanwhile, Israeli health officials reported what appeared to be a waning efficacy of the vaccine, including among those who had been double vaccinated. Data showed that of the serious cases being admitted to hospital, around 60 per cent of patients were people who had been fully vaccinated....

"Many public health professionals feel that what happened in Israel was a demonstration of population immunity, or herd immunity. [But the] delta variant, with its higher infectious rate, coupled with waning immunity, has proven us wrong," said Dr. Eyal Leshem, a clinical associate professor in internal medicine and infectious diseases at the Sackler School of Medicine in Tel Aviv University....

.

There are a number of different social and viral factors that are mentioned as the cause of the setback, but all countries have the same factors to deal with. Some deal with them in a scientific fashion, and some do not have the steadfastness or vision to do so. Then, there is the problematic fact that so many countries in the world have yet to receive any vaccines at all:

Vaccine monopolies make cost of vaccinating the world against COVID at least 5 times more expensive than it could be

New analysis shows that the firms Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna were charging governments as much as $41 billion above the estimated cost of production. Colombia, for example, has potentially overpaid by as much as $375 million for its doses of the Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna vaccines, in comparison to the estimated cost price.

Despite a rapid rise in COVID-19 cases and deaths across the developing world, Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna have sold over 90 percent of their vaccines so far to rich countries, charging up to 24 times the potential cost of production.

.

Not enough humans have the moral sense to react to this alarming information with anger and shame. This suggests that even if the current pandemic did abruptly end, one would be compelled to question whether our species has what it takes to avert the very real extinction events that are coming our way.

Submitted by gjohnsit on Wed, 10/06/2021 - 11:21pm

totally unrelated

Submitted by CB on Thu, 10/07/2021 - 1:00am

The value of not being seen

@gjohnsit
[video:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u0WOIwlXE9g]

Submitted by mimi on Thu, 10/07/2021 - 2:13am

Wouldn' this essay belong into THE DOSE ? /nt

—

https://www.euronews.com/live

Submitted by ovals49 on Thu, 10/07/2021 - 8:00am

JtC has indicated it is permissible for multiple

@mimi
COVID conversations, so long as they appear in the “Community Content” section. Polluting “Front Page” content with COVID comments is not to be tolerated.

This edict is very reasonable and has no impact on our ability to pursue respectful “free range” discussions elsewhere. Search engines will not find COVID on the landing page, and we have a safe space for those who have had enough of this contentious issue. It’s a win-win for all.

—

“The story around the world gives a silent testimony:
— The Beresovka mammoth, frozen in mud, with buttercups in his mouth…..”

The Adam and Eve Story, Chan Thomas 1963

Submitted by mimi on Fri, 10/08/2021 - 4:01am