Hardliner Ebrahim Raisi elected President of Iran

E. Raisi votes in Tehran[/caption]

‘Hardliner Raisi wins Iran’s presidential election’, 19 Jun, 2021, RT.com

“Conservative judge Ebrahim Raisi has been declared the victor of Iran’s presidential election. Iran’s Interior Ministry announced the final results on Saturday, showing that Raisi had won in a landslide victory.

The ministry said 28.9 million Iranians participated in the election. Raisi received over 17.9 million votes, with the rest split between three other candidates. Second-place Mohsen Rezaei received 3.4 million votes.

In an address to the country, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said the winner of the election was the “Iranian nation” and that participation at the polls marked a victory against “propaganda of the enemy's mercenary media,” Fars News reported.”

@Tasnimnews_EN

Outgoing president of #Iran Hassan Rouhani personally congratulates his successor Ebrahim Raeisi for his election as 8th president of Iran during a meeting on Saturday after he was garnered over 17.8 million votes by people out of more than 28.6 million ballots

In an op-ed by Tim Korsho at sputnik news, Korso writes:

“However, despite this, and despite Western accusations of human rights violations by Raisi, the West might still have a shot at reaching some agreements with Tehran, especially on the nuclear accord. [...]

“Western countries will likely be those with the hardest time communicating with Raisi for several reasons. The chief justice is a hardline opponent of the West and Western policies.

Raisi is also subject to sanctions that were introduced by the US in 2019 over his support of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei - which may complicate the West's attempts to negotiate with him. At the same time, the chief justice is facing accusations of being part of a four-man "death committee" that allegedly ordered the execution of thousands of prisoners in Iran in 1988, mostly members of the People's Mujahedin of Iran.” [...]

“One of the most acute questions about Iran's future foreign policy relates to the ongoing negotiations on restoring the Iran nuclear deal. While Tehran reported that some progress had been achieved in recent talks in Geneva, the US and Iran are yet to agree on the terms of returning to the accord. Although the election of an anti-Western hardliner might have jeopardised these plans, Ebrahim Raisi may still agree to renew the deal.” [...]

“A restored accord, however, will look different from the original 2015 document backed by the UN Security Council, Dr Alam Saleh stresses. He elaborates that Iran no longer trusts the West and thus will not agree to the previous terms while being governed by a hardliner.

He’ll take office in early August. Via al Jazeera english, June 15, 2021 FWIW.

From Elijah J. Magnier on Twitter:

@ejmalrai

The presidential elections will not affect the nuclear file, which, the more negotiations fail, the higher will be the progress in nuclear science & technology. Instead, it will affect the economy as a whole if US agrees to lift all sanctions, which is now unlikely & unexpected.”

@ejmalrai Jun 18

For forty years the west kept predicting that the "Islamic Republic of #Iran" was coming to its end, indicating the wishful thinking behind this narrative and the frustration with Iran's policy to stay out of the US hegemony and its orbit of influence and control.”

(Some of it’s behind a paywall.) One excerpt:

“However, there is little doubt the western world of experts on Iran has limited knowledge of what is going on behind the scenes in Iran since the revolution’s victory. The most straightforward issue is that the constitution always governs the strategic decision taken by the Iranian officials. The future President and his government have specific functions by law since the position of the prime minister was abolished during the era of Mir Hossein Mousavi and when the constitution was amended before the departure of Imam Khomeini. Consequently, the nuclear negotiation with the US has nothing to do with the Iranian election and the new president’s identity.

Via New Eastern Outlook, ‘Iranian-American Talks in Vienna: What to Expect from Them?’, June 19, 2021

“In its Interim National Security Strategic Guidance, the Joe Biden Administration warned ambiguously that Iran “might get a technology that would be a potential game-changer.” As the negotiating parties work to resolve critical issues in the Vienna nuclear talks, the US is redoubling its efforts to prevent the Iranians from acquiring such technology or destroying the knowledge behind it, should Iran achieve it. This explains why talks in Vienna aimed at reviving the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) have so far failed to produce tangible results. However, many politicians had expected them to be completed in late May or early June.

US administration officials are now imposing a kind of “note of caution,” despite the optimistic expectations expressed by the negotiating parties during the last five rounds of nuclear talks, which began in early April. US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said on this occasion that the US still does not know whether Iran is ready to resume compliance with the 2015 nuclear deal. “It remains unclear whether Iran is willing and prepared to do to come back into compliance. We don’t know if that’s actually going to happen,” he said, speaking to Congress.”

“These remarks prompted a sharp response from Iran’s Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, who caustically remarked that his country was unsure whether the United States was ready to abandon the failed “maximum pressure” policy that the Trump Administration and his nation’s Secretary of State Mike Pompeo had once adopted against Iran. “It remains unclear whether @POTUS and @SecBlinken are ready to bury Trump and @mikepompeo’s failed “maximum pressure” policy and stop using economic terrorism as a negotiating “leverage.” Iran complies with the JCPOA. Just read paragraph 36. It’s time to change course,” Zarif wrote on his Twitter.”

Mikhin includes many opinions, suppositions, suggestions from Russia and China, and quotes, too many to bring, but includes:

“As always, Israel, which has arrogated to itself the right to dictate its will to other states, has poured oil on the Iranian-American fire of relations, or rather disagreements. The outgoing head of Israel’s Mossad intelligence service, Yossi Cohen, explicitly admitted that his country was behind the recent attacks on Iran’s nuclear program and the assassination of scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh. He also threatened other scientists in Iran’s nuclear program that they too might become targets for assassination, even when diplomats in Vienna are trying to negotiate terms to salvage their nuclear agreement with world powers and improve the situation in this very troubled region of the world. It should be noted that the media in Israel operate under a strict policy that requires journalists to edit stories related to security issues through military censors. The fact that the censors edited Cohen’s words suggests that Israel wants to make another, new warning to Iran against the backdrop of the Vienna nuclear talks. Iran has repeatedly complained about Israeli attacks. The Iranian Ambassador to the IAEA, Kazem Gharib Abadi, has warned that these incidents “will not only be met with strong responses but will certainly leave Iran no choice but to review its transparency measures and cooperation policies.”

You’ll likely remember that Iranian FM Javad Zarif has long warned all concerned not to tarry in resurrecting the deal as it was in its original form before an expected hard-line government took power. As in: ‘End the sanctions first, as they are an act of war; then Iran will go back to compliance.’


(cross-posted from Café Babylon)

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My reaction to the current situation is to pay close attention to what Javad Zarif says. That has not steered me wrong in the past.

The new hardline government will not be installed for a few weeks and so there is a window for the WH to wipe away the Trump Madness and get back on a reasonable footing with Iran.

My hope is that this can and will happen.

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NYCVG

wendy davis's picture

@NYCVG

so do zarif and the head irania negotiator in vienna.

from tasnim news: JCPOA Parties Ought to Decide Now, Iranian Negotiator Says
, June, 20, 2021

the highlights:

TEHRAN (Tasnim) – Iran’s top negotiator in the Vienna talks on the revival of the 2015 nuclear deal said the time has come for the other parties to make their decisions, as it has become quite clear what the outstanding issues are.
.............
Nearly all documents on an agreement are now prepared, the Iranian deputy foreign minister added, noting that the main points of disagreement have taken a clear shape and it is obviously clear what the dimension of these difference are.

“I believe the time has come for the other sides to make decisions, because the stage for negotiations and a possible agreement is completely clear. They ought to make their decisions,” Araqchi said.
............................
Three working groups that focus on nuclear issues, the removal of sanctions, and the JCPOA implementation arrangements have held several meetings in Vienna in recent weeks.

The US left the JCPOA in 2018 and restored the economic sanctions that the accord had lifted. Tehran retaliated with remedial nuclear measures that it is entitled to take under the JCPOA’s Paragraph 36.

the short break will allow pressure on blinken and austin; you can just imagine what the new Naftali Bennet adminstration in israel is saying.

dangerous times for iran. mr. wd wonders if zarif will serve in the new administration. some detractors say he and rouhani were too 'neoliberal and soft'. go figure.

shi'a islam: Bad; sunni islam: Good.

thanks for readnig, commenting, and hoping, amiga.

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I might disagree with the results, given a right winger is likely not a figure the world leaders will be happy to welcome to the table for reasoned discussion. I hope it results in the US re-affirming the treaty, but we are the world's dick heads.

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wendy davis's picture

@on the cusp

it's not clear to me that 'hardliner' equals 'right winger', but the former seems to equal believing the US is 'the great satan'.

i grabbed this op=ed at RT, but have had only time to scan his speculation. (My stars, there are boatloads of 'expert opinions' out there...)

Will Iran’s new president fuel conflict or make deals?’, june 21

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wendy davis's picture

Israeli prime minister says election of new Iranian president shows world powers should reject deal with Tehran’, 17 hrs ago, nbc news

Israel’s Prime Minister Naftali Bennett labelled the newly elected Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi the “hangman of Tehran” during a cabinet meeting. Raisi is under U.S. sanctions for sentencing thousands of political prisoners to death in 1988. Bennett said the election should serve as a warning to world powers not to strike a deal with Iran on nuclear weapons.

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wendy davis's picture

piece: What does the victory of Ibrahim Raisi as President of Iran mean to the US and Iran’s allies?

@ReghalSeven
"There is no doubt that Brigadier General Qassem Soleimani is a partner in Raisi’s victory. His assassination by the US in Baghdad rallied millions of Iranians behind the revolution and injected new blood in its body."

@DinoAfuera Jun 20

"Raisi is known to support the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. Consequently, Iran's allies will receive the necessary support that Rouhani partially withheld from them in recent years under the pretext of “lack of budget”.

@AndreaAlbion Jun 20

Hardliner Judge Raisi won with nearly 18 of 28MM votes cast. Cdr. Rezaei of IRGC came 2nd with 3.4MM votes. Reformist Hemmati, with Zarif as his FM, got only 2.4 MM. Raisi won't compromise one inch. US must lift ALL sanctions or Iran goes nuclear. The Axis will confront US in ME.

(the above op-ed is behind a paywall; only 10 euros a month to subscribe!)

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