There is high expectation that Arauz will come in first as the rightwing is split with Lasso likely #2. Here is the thing I'm unsure of, fact wise, and whether it is possible: To avoid a runoff the winner of the election needs to have more then 40% of the vote. Arauz was close in the (highly unreliable) polls last I saw but 40% is quite uncertain. The right would almost certainly unite behind Lasso in a runoff.

Lasso is the nightmare scenario. He is a Guayaquil banker. I can't remember how many banks he controlled that failed in the late '90s. He ran from the country and is reported to have taken a significant haul with him. When Morreno was elected there were allegations that he had 40-some offshore companies that he'd stashed his money in and that they were being used to avoid taxes, an Ecuadorian elite favorite pastime. Strangely, when Morreno became prez the investigations and prosecutions evaporated like an ice cube on a Las Vegas strip sidewalk at noon in August. The investigations and allegation of corruption instead changed targets to Correa. Lasso is also the darling who wants close ties to the US and is promising a job revival with new World Bank and IMF loans.

I don't know if or how dirty Correa was but I do know that Lasso is a royal shit. He will pretty much reverse the reduction of poverty from 48% to 25% that Correa accomplished and sack what's left the treasury for his own benefit. Arauz and the people of Ecuador really need to pull off a win.