Unemployment numbers are getting less believable
Almost every economic metric is deteriorating except for employment numbers.
More than half of adults under 30 (52%) are living with one or both of their parents as of July.
A new study found that 77% of low-to middle-income households in the United States fall below the asset poverty threshold (enough cash to live for three months).
Another study projects an increase in homelessness by 40-45% this year if homelessness follows unemployment the way that it has done so in the earlier part of this century.
Yet employment numbers are stronger than ever.
The economy regained 1.4 million jobs in August and the unemployment rate fell to 8.4% from 10.2%, the government said Friday. Economists polled by MarketWatch had predicted an increase of 1.2 million jobs.
These numbers get more problematic the deeper you dig.
Note that employment rose by 3.756 million but the Labor Force only rose by 968,000. The impact of this discrepancy actually boosts the unemployment rate, but only by a tiny amount.
It's the numerator that matters. The numerator should match continuing claims. It doesn't.Major Discrepancy
Continued claims for the week ending August 15 was 14.492 million as per the BLS.
Yet, the BLS also says the number of unemployed for that week was 13.550 million.
The primary reason for this was the survey sampling (i.e. estimation) giving the lower number, while continuing claims (i.e. hard numbers) giving a higher number.
The other statistical trick is those receiving unemployment benefits via Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA), which covers individuals not traditionally eligible for aid, including self-employed, freelance, gig and part-time workers, aren't counted under the standard report.
This is the first time EVER that a majority of people getting UI checks weren't counted as unemployed.
PUA will end in a few months.
These 29.2 million people who continued to claim unemployment insurance translate into 18.3% of the civilian labor force.
Comments
I've always assumed
that government unemployment figures have been BS since the Reagan administration. Glad someone finally noticed.
On to Biden since 1973
cooked books
Wrong Republican Administration. Government unemployment figures have been BS since the Eisenhower Administration.
And yes, I noticed it too.
"US govt/military = bad. Russian govt/military = bad. Any politician wanting power = bad. Anyone wielding power = bad." --Shahryar
"All power corrupts absolutely!" -- thanatokephaloides
Great assumption doh! clinton did it on roids w/hedonics
based BS, either way though they've been cooking the books for a long long time
http://www.shadowstats.com/
• L A T E S T .. August 2020 Payrolls Continued to Show an Unfolding “L”-Shaped Economic Recovery, With the Headline Unemployment Rate Understated for the Sixth Straight Month (September 4th, Bureau of Labor Statistics - BLS). Meaningful quality and credibility issues continue to plague the “improving” headline labor numbers. The August 19th preliminary annual downside benchmark revision of 173,000 (-173,000) to March 2020 payrolls (see No. 1446) will not be adjusted into headline monthly reporting until February 2021. While August Payrolls gained month-to-month for the fourth month, the monthly slowing in annual decline is taking on the form of an “L”-shaped recovery. Year-to-year payrolls declined into an initial April 2020 trough of 13.4% (-13.4%), narrowing to 11.7% (-11.7%) in May, but have begun to flatten out at 8.7% (-8.7%), 7.7% (-7.7%), and 7.0% (-7.0%) in June through August. Similar patterns in industry payrolls ranging from Retail Sales and Construction to Manufacturing suggest a slowing pace of economic recovery.
The BLS acknowledged that continued misclassification of “unemployed” persons as “employed” persons in the Household Survey might have reduced a potential headline July U.3 unemployment rate of 9.1% to the headline 8.4%. Whatever the difference, official headline unemployment was understated meaningfully for the sixth straight month, due to survey “misclassifications.” Headline U.3 unemployment dropped to 8.42% in August, from 10.22% in July, headline August U.6 declined to 14.24% from 16.53%, with the headline August ShadowStats Alternate Measure, on top of U.6, at 28.0%, down from 30.0%, as graphed and detailed on the ALTERNATE DATA tab, linked above. Expanded detail follows in No. 1447.
I never knew that the term "Never Again" only pertained to
those born Jewish
"Antisemite used to be someone who didn't like Jews
now it's someone who Jews don't like"
Heard from Margaret Kimberley
None of the statistical data
is processed in a meaningful manner for conditions like exist now. They didn't make sense before but it's far worse now. The real story requires doing what you're doing, digging into the numbers buried in the data and finding the story that tells what people's lives are really like. The media just laps up the single condensed bullshit number. WoooHooo!! Recovery!!
Nobody wants to talk about all of underemployed, underpaid people working in insecure jobs with no benefits and shit working conditions who have to live at home with their equally screwed parents. All jobs are not equal but the stats treat them like they are. People working 2 or 3 jobs and still are unable to get by is ridiculous.
Our expat daily online paper today reported that the booming food home delivery sector has seen a 90% increase in their business. Then it goes on to say that a lot of those taking all the new jobs are former professionals.
Hang in there America. Everybody will be a big corporation or a contractor with a few more years like the past 40.
Edit: Glovo has sucked up all of the delivery companies that were in Cuenca during the nearly three years we've lived here. They've increased their delivery charges and shrunk their service areas. Uber Eats is new but I've never seen one of their motos (contractor owned of course) except in el Centro. It doesn't matter, we can't get a delivery no matter what unless it's an independent driver. We're less than 4 miles from el Centro.
"Ah, but I was so much older then, I'm younger than that now..."
I read they changed the way unemployment numbers are calculated
Just in the last couple of weeks. I don’t remember where I saw that. They aren’t going to fool the unemployed by fiddling with the calculation method and what is reported.
quick-fried books
Those books are cooked. In this case, "quick-fried to a crackly crunch" (h/t Cheetos).
edit: Adjusted comment title to make it different from my last comment title in this thread.
"US govt/military = bad. Russian govt/military = bad. Any politician wanting power = bad. Anyone wielding power = bad." --Shahryar
"All power corrupts absolutely!" -- thanatokephaloides
uhh...
Those numbers don't reflect longtime unemployed people who have given up even looking. That group which must be growing daily, hasn't been reported for as long as I can recall.
Add to that granma's comment that there is a "new" way of counting and we probably have an unemployment estimate that is close to worthless.
Close to 200,000 dead from Covid and unless you know some of them, there's probably lots of doubt and lack of clarity in those reported numbers also.
NYCVG
Plus
and those involuntarily working part-time.
This is the first time EVER that people getting UI checks weren't counted as unemployed.
Those getting unemployment checks
are not counted as unemployed??? That is the change the made? I didn’t catch that when I read the essay. That is bizarre.
I guess I should update this essay
Those getting UI checks through the PUA aren't included in the headline unemployment number.
@gjohnsit What????????????/
What????????????/
NYCVG
In Illinois there are millions
who have been unable to contact the unemployment office by phone or internet to file their claims. You cannot file in person. In the past you HAD to file in person, then check in by telephone. But now the offices are closed because of scary virus. The same scary virus that supermarket clerks and waitresses meet every day. And who knows how many have just given up after trying for weeks, months? to get through?
If Trump was not such an idiot, he could have an army of voters here and win Illinois, Dems would scream RUSSIA!
I think Pritzker means well. I really do like the man. But he is a billionaire born and bred and has no reference at all to how we proles live. He does not know our hopes and fears, our strengths and our weaknesses. It is like my imagining how slaves lived and felt in the Old South. I can guess, but I really can't KNOW. I can only imagine how I, a 20th century blue-collar ethnic white man, would feel.
EDIT: "Let them eat cake" was perhaps not as mocking as it sounds. Marie Antoinette may never have been hungry for more than a few hours in her life and there probably always was cake in the kitchen. and servants to give it to her and smile. Perhaps she really could not understand.
I've seen lots of changes. What doesn't change is people. Same old hairless apes.
Actually
supposedly "cake" was slang for burned bread that stayed on the sides of the pan after baking.
On to Biden since 1973
This is not a "V" shaped recovery,
this is an "F-U" shaped recovery.
Saw that somewhere on social media and thought it should be spread.