Ways to get out of lockdown safely.

I just read an excellent essay giving seven ideas to help get out of lockdown safely.

1. Everyone wears masks as much as possible when they leave home.
Statistics and models can be excellent when dealing with large sample sizes. There are always the few who do not conform to the model. Eliminating the disease will take more than masks, but using masks can get the number of infected down to levels that allow other traditional methods to work better.

The article cites a great paper by Kai et.al. although it is not reasonable to expect that masks alone can stop the epidemic.

Without masking, but even with continued social distancing in place once the lockdown is lifted, the infection rate will increase and almost half of the population will become affected. This scenario would potentially lead to over a million deaths in a population the size of the UK. Social distancing and masking at both 50% and 80-90% of the population but no lockdown beyond the end of May result in substantial reduction of infection, with 80-90% masking eventually eliminating the disease

BONUS: Masks mess up facial recognition and think how much this must be annoying the PTB.

Masking should be mandatory for individuals in essential functions (health care workers, social and family workers, the police and the military, the service sector, construction workers, etc) and medical masks and gloves or equally safe protection should be provided to them by employers. Cloth masks should be used if medical masks are unavailable

Until supplies are sufficient, members of the general public should wear nonmedical fabric face masks when going out in public and medical masks should be reserved for essential functions.

The introduction of mandatory masking will benefit from being rolled out together with campaigns, citizen initiatives, the media, NGOs, and influencers in order to avoid a public backlash in societies not culturally accustomed to masking. Public awareness is needed that “masking protects your community not just you”.

file:///C:/Users/C/AppData/Local/Temp/2004.13553.pdf

Trump may choose not to wear a mask because he can insist that everyone around him be tested frequently. The rest of us do not have that luxury.

2. Make a stronger effort to get a vaccine as quickly as possible.
The details this article suggests may not be the way we all want to go, but investments in a vaccine would definitely pay off handsomely.

3. More and smarter testing.

This has worked in China, New Zealand and Korea.

4. Hire more contact tracers.

This will also provide useful jobs for some of the people who are out of work. This can effectively dampen the spread in areas with only a few infections. It would be a waste of time in New York City right now. Elsewhere contact tracing could help and tracers would be trained for the mop-up on the downward tail of the curve.

5. Do not send infected people back to their households, prison cells, homeless shelters, or nursing homes.
Arrange suitable places where people who are asymptomatic or only moderately ill can rest and recover. Blood oxygen levels could be monitored so that people do not wait until their lips are turning blue to go to a hospital.

(Even people who do not care about prisoners should worry about prison staff going home and infecting their families and others in the community.)

Muge Cevik, a virologist at the University of St. Andrews, did a helpful roundup of research from Asian countries, and paper after paper emphasizes that the attack rate within households is extremely high. A lot of people, in other words, are getting sick from roommates or family members.

People staying home aren’t getting sick by magic, and transmission among people who are leaving the house is critical to keeping the epidemic running. But a key reason even serious social distancing efforts only bring case volumes down very slowly is that the virus spreads so easily inside households, meaning that one infection picked up at work could swiftly into two or three or four at home.

Current CDC guidelines call for infected people to “stay in a specific room and away from other people and pets in your home” and “use a separate bathroom.”

This is not practical in many cases. Not everyone has a large house and some people need ongoing care and attention. It also appears that the coronavirus could be spreading effectively through ducts, so it’s not clear that the CDC’s ideas would work even if rigorously applied. Regardless of the exact reason, the statistics signal it’s not working in practice.

https://www.vox.com/2020/5/13/21248157/testing-quarantine-masks-stimulus

6. There is nothing wrong with going outside.

This is one of my own pet peeves. Here in Florida the news media takes pictures from camera angles that make the beaches look crowded. I recognized landmarks on several of the beaches and it was obvious that "family" groups were mostly 10-20 feet apart. It is possible that some of the beaches near Miami are too crowded but that is not a good reason to shut down every park in the state.

UV light from the sun kills viruses fairly quickly. As long as we stay with our own "family" group reasonable distance from other groups that are in quarantine together this is a safe and healthy way to decrease the stress.

Quian et.al studied 1245 confirmed cases and found that:

Home outbreaks were the dominant category (254 of 318 outbreaks; 79.9%), followed by transport (108; 34.0%; note that many outbreaks involved more than one venue category). Most home outbreaks involved three to five cases. We identified only a single outbreak in an outdoor environment, which involved two cases. Conclusions: All identified outbreaks of three or more cases occurred in an indoor environment, which confirms that sharing indoor space is a major SARS-CoV-2 infection risk.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.04.20053058v1

7) Just spend the damn money

Give the financial help directly to actual human beings and genuinely small businesses.

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Granma's picture

But boy are they uncomfortable. I hate breathing hot air, am relieved to get back to my car and be able to take it off. I feel for the people who have to wear one all day at work.

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@Granma I dread the coming days when I will have to wear one all damn day while in court.
A friend made me 3 very elaborate masks for my birthday.
Courts are tentatively set to open up for personal appearances in June, but that might be delayed until July.
Good grief.

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"We'll know our disinformation program is complete when everything the American public believes is false." ---- William Casey, CIA Director, 1981

@on the cusp
I have had to work long hours in assorted types of PPE. Goggles are the worst because they will fog up. Wearing the stuff does become a habit after a while. I feel undressed walking into a lab without eye protection.

Will witnesses testify in masks? When students are telling dog-ate-my-homework stories their facial expressions and body language are very useful in deciding how to respond. If I were on a jury the demeanor of a witness would provide important input.

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CS in AZ's picture

@Granma

Although I know this design is supposedly not the “best” for maximum protection, I feel this type is best for me — because I don’t mind wearing it, so I actually use it. It is called a neck gaiter or a tube scarf, which is basically just a tube-shaped ring of stretchy fabric that you pull on over your head and can wear around your neck like a scarf, then quickly pull up and fold up a couple of layers and put it over your nose and mouth. There are no elastic ear loops, nothing has to go over or behind the ears, and it is long enough that it still covers your neck too. When you want to remove it, just grab from the bottom and pull it back down to a neck scarf. It is super easy and quite breathable and comfortable.

Many of these are made of a polyester or elasticene fabric, which are not recommended, but I found some batik-dyed ones that are a bamboo fabric, very soft and quite stylish, on Etsy. I ordered two and they arrived in 5 days. I love them.

I wore one for the first time to go to my dentist office on Tuesday — a mask is required until you get into the treatment room, and my hygienist actually complimented my mask and said too many people come in with the ear-loop style and then grab the front to remove it and stuff it into a purse or pocket. Mine just sits around my neck until I’m ready to pull it back up. I also use them now for shopping and errands. Around the neck in the car, then quickly pull up to cover mouth and nose to go into the store.

See them here: Bamboo face mask

(I have no connection to this seller, I just really like the product and wanted to pass this along for anyone who might be interested.)

PS: thank you for this essay ScienceTeacher. I especially agree with you about the articles freaking out about “packed” beaches, with accompanying pictures that show small groups of a few people staying quite a ways apart from each other.

My thought was the same — that is NOT a packed beach! Good grief. I used to live in San Diego, I know what a crowded beach looks like, and the pics I’ve seen show very well spaced beach-goers. They are outdoors with an ocean breeze blowing. Relatively a VERY safe way to get outside for some physical and mental R&R.

Getting outdoors is vital for overall health and well-being. If I lived near a beach, I would be extremely pissed that this is even an issue!

[edited to fix typos]

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@CS in AZ
Those bamboo scarves do look comfortable. Even if they are not as effective a surgical mask the important thing is that it is something people would actually wear. I would want to be sure that the same part of the mask was against my face each time until I got back home and washed it but they are actually attractive.

I haven't been to the beach since they started reopening, but I can walk outside in my neighborhood. I live far enough inland not to worry about storm surges during hurricanes although if we have a bad season this year people from the coast may be joining us here. That is going to be interesting.

Yeah, it really is silly to make people stay cooped up indoors all day in a stressful time. People will be more likely to follow the important rules if there are not a bunch of silly ones. There is no reason not to take little slices of happiness no matter how bad things are.

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Unabashed Liberal's picture

@CS in AZ @CS in AZ

Good

Pleasantry

Mollie

“I think dogs are the most amazing creatures; they give unconditional love. For me, they are the role model for being alive.”
~~Gilda Radner, Comedienne

[Edited: corrected - hey]

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Everyone thinks they have the best dog, and none of them are wrong.

@Granma
We will probably get more used to masks but I also take mine off as soon as I get to the car. I am still using coffee-filter masks so I take several and the one I wore gets dropped in a box in the back seat. As long as a mask did not get wet or sneezed on I am just leaving them in the car and using them again after a week or so. Not many viruses or other germs could survive for a week in a car parked in the hot Florida sun.

We are living in interesting times. Excitement is great in a novel or movie but I would prefer boring times.

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1.seal all borders
2.test everyone
3.isolate those who are positive
4.wait until current infections total zero
5. Now you can open up

China is finding new infections in Wuhan. They had gotten their current infection count to near zero. Not good enough. Now they are going to test everyone one in Wuhan, 11 million.

The US situation is hopeless. There are currently one million active infections, all producing billions of viruses. Americans are screaming to open up now. They do not have the discipline to be successful as a nation. Leaders don't lead, they just follow... the polls. Advisors are all over the spectrum, depending on their politics. There is a reason that we are number one... in total infections and deaths.

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Capitalism has always been the rule of the people by the oligarchs. You only have two choices, eliminate them or restrict their power.

@The Wizard
If everyone starts wearing masks when they are near people outside their household the transmission rate can be substantially decreased. Rural areas really can slow this down with testing and contact tracing. Getting this under control in cities will be difficult, but the lack of leadership has been a lot of the problem.

A less invasive test should be available soon. It would be nice if our Fearless Leader would help get it into production quickly.

Saliva samples taken from just inside the mouth were more accurate and consistent than deep nasal swabs taken from 44 patients and 98 health care workers, the researchers reported.

For instance, saliva samples detected the coronavirus in two health care workers without symptoms who'd previously been cleared by a deep nasal swab, the Yale researchers said.

"We found it performs as well as, and in a number of cases better, than the nasopharyngeal swab," said lead researcher Anne Wyllie, an associate research scientist at the Yale School of Public Health in New Haven, Conn. "We have another very viable option."

Testing everyone in Wuhan may be partly to reassure everyone as well as to avoid more wide-scale quarantines. Getting to the point where one or two cases is considered a crisis will take some time in this country, but a lot of the casualties that are acceptable to our Fearless Leaders really can be avoided.

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snoopydawg's picture

This doctor starts off talking about how one of his patients committed suicide which was one of 5 recent ones. He makes some great points here about opening up the economy because of how many more people will die from various things. I’d have liked it if he had mentioned how this government has failed us in so many ways.

r

This great article does talk about it. Smiley posted it in today’s OT and it’s really worth a read.

http://www.defenddemocracy.press/we-need-a-radically-different-model-to-...

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@snoopydawg

To move forward, first of all, debts incurred before and during the pandemic will have to be written down. The energy sector and transport sectors will have to be rebuilt, based far more on renewables and sources other than oil. A large share of basic industries – especially in the health sector – will have to be repatriated so that basic sufficiency exists in this country. Millions of people will be needed to monitor and support public health; jobs for them must be organized and funded by the government. State and local governments will have to be federally-funded, in substantial part, to provide basic public services. New and sustainable housing must be built, in new community structures. High speed broadband must be provided to all. A new financing model – cooperative, with public support – will be required to re-establish small businesses. Local, decentralized cultural and sporting venues will have to replace mass-based experiences; these too will require cooperative structures and public support. In short, the only way out, remotely acceptable to the population at large, will require a comprehensive restructuring of the economy on a cooperative foundation, with the government stepping up to guaranteed funding, employment, and public investments.

Disaster capitalism is being tried, and the worst case is now the likely case. But there is a scale beyond which disaster capitalism cannot go. At a certain point, the carnage becomes too great to neglect, impossible to avoid and lethal to overlook. At a certain point, ordinary people will stand up and refuse to be bullied any more.

I do hope ordinary people will refuse to be bullied. Allowing the de facto rent strike was a mistake on the part of the PTB. People are going to like having a break from the rat race of trying to claw their way out from under a pile of ever-rising bills. It probably is not legal to use the National Guard to enforce mass evictions? What do the attorneys here say about this?

Medicare for all would really help people start or re-open small businesses. Figuring out projected future income was a nightmare under ACA. Cobra is too expensive for someone who is out of work and trying to scrape up money to start a small business. Local Mom-and-Pop businesses must be supported as we go forward through this.

The comments in the essay about entertainment are great.

We, the peasants, do need to start brainstorming now.

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snoopydawg's picture

@ScienceTeacher

People should take the time to read it if they are interested in seeing where this country is headed. Thanks for the excerpt. I was going to do one, but there are too many important points to choose from.

Did you watch the video? I am curious to see what others think of the points he brings up.

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@snoopydawg
Scott Jensen is clearly a genuinely decent person. The suicide of his own brother has obviously made him especially concerned about people in despair. Much of the despair at the moment is from the actions and inaction of the political class in this country.

Laws about quarantines are hundreds of years old. Laws from the time of Queen Elizabeth I and James I allowed the government of England to put citizens in quarantine. The government then provided less affluent households with money until the quarantine was lifted. Officials from the parish were to deliver food and other necessities to the household.

Quarantine records from St. Martin give a rough indication of the socioeconomic status of quarantined individuals. The records note whether households were “chargeable,” “partially chargeable,” or “not chargeable.” Chargeable households were those who were financially dependent on the parish for material support during the period of quarantine. Partially chargeable households paid for a portion of their keep, and not chargeable ones supported themselves. Over the course of the 1636–1637 outbreak, 84% of the individuals were chargeable, meaning they could not afford to pay the 4 pence per quarantined person per day that the parish charged for support. Though this was a relatively low cost, it was significant enough to encompass some of the lower middling sort who, though comfortable, lacked the resources to endure long periods of expenditure without income.54 It also included those who were chargeable at the time of the outbreak but who were required to later pay back some of the compensation they received. Such individuals who were given loans made up a small but not insignificant portion of the chargeable households on the parish roll.

The serious errors of government officials resulted in a nationwide quarantine of "nonessential" people. I am not really a proponent of UBI but it is entirely reasonable for people to receive financial help at this time. The easiest way would be to give each adult some amount like $2000 a month until the weekly death rate in their area is in the single digits. This could be a loan to the more affluent; they could repay it with their taxes over the next few years.

Much of the frustration and despair could be alleviated by leaders who face facts in a calm and reasonable way. We need leaders who make sure basic needs are provided for. We need leaders who can plan and organize for the future. We need leaders who can communicate reasonable plans and reassure everyone that we all face this together. In the absence of such leaders we must try to band together and do these things for ourselves.

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snoopydawg's picture

@ScienceTeacher

Yes congress should have sent the money to us instead of bailing out those that were going to need being bailed out even if the epidemic hadn’t happened. Everyone was talking about the impending stock market crash that was engineered by the banks again. This should have happened when Obama bailed them out to a tune of $29 trillion too. Imagine if people got enough money to get out of debt and students were able to make a dent in their loans. This would have revived the economy and banks would have gotten their money back from us.

But that was never in the cards because it’s supposed to be going just like it is and that article described it so clearly. We will become a rentier class and who knows whether companies will bring back their company stores and housing that was designed to keep people from getting ahead. We are living in the Roaring 20's again and we will be beholden to the new and improved robber barons. In other words we’re in for a royal screwing.

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ggersh's picture

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I never knew that the term "Never Again" only pertained to
those born Jewish

"Antisemite used to be someone who didn't like Jews
now it's someone who Jews don't like"

Heard from Margaret Kimberley

TheOtherMaven's picture

@ggersh

and no one knows for sure when there will be one. The Fathead-in-chief is bloviating that one will be available "by the end of this year", but this has as much validity as any of his other mouth farts.

The pic is apparently some kind of staged photo-op or photoshop or CGI. It isn't real...yet.

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There is no justice. There can be no peace.

snoopydawg's picture

@TheOtherMaven

it came with horrible side effects such as Guilliane Barr disorder that affects the nervous system. I spelled that wrong I know, but the doctor covers that in the tweet I posted.

And after the drug companies were sued for damages they got congress to let them off for liability for any damages. The website that does track damage from them is very misleading because it doesn't track each individual case, but instead lumps certain side effects such as death and on down into one group.

The Gardisal HPV vaccines that was being pushed on teenage girls had some very horrific effects on their lives and even then the drug companies are being protected.

I am not against all vaccines, but we know that the FDA has been captured by the drug companies and they let them write the reports and don't even bother to fact check them. What I am against is how many more vaccines young kids are given in such a short time. Many kids aren't even at risk for certain diseases and yet they get them included in the cocktails.

I am very against a mandatory vaccine program because of 1) no liability, 2) captured FDA and 3) people should have the right to oppose a foreign substance injected into their bodies. The rush for the vaccine for this should be raising huge red flags.

I have a link to an article on how the drug companies got congress to cover their asses if anyone is interested.

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@ggersh
The problem when a vaccine first comes out will be initial shortages. It will take time to ramp up production. Medical providers and others who are most at risk should get the first chance to have the vaccine if they want it.

People living in group settings will need to be the next to be allowed to choose to have the vaccine if they want it. Given the initial shortages it would be ridiculous to require anyone who is unwilling to take the new vaccine.

The next group that should be offered the vaccine will be anyone whose work involves contact with large numbers of people. I will read up on whatever vaccine is developed first and the company that makes it; I may take it so I can safely go back into the classroom.

Eventually the big debate will probably be whether to require healthy kids to take the vaccine before returning to school. There is too much we do not know about long term outcomes of this virus to make reasonable arguments about this sort of policy.

Everyone here doubtless realizes that Trump does not have a strong background in the biological sciences. He also seems to prefer to leave the gritty details of forward planning and organizing to others. It would be unsurprising if someone made quite a bit of profit selling stuff for the currently nonexistent vaccine to the government.

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