Maybe we won't have the summertime blues. Maybe the pandemic slows

Submitted by Alligator Ed on Fri, 03/13/2020 - 8:04pm

In today's Black cat day press conference, our President hinted at "the summer being very good". Perhaps this is what he meant. Variations in transmissibility does vary with both temperature and humidity. Temperature has a greater effect than humidity. See illustrations and formula below.

Warm weather and corona virus spread.

Our finding is consistent with the evidence that high temperature and high humidity reduce the transmission of influenza[10-14], which can be explained by two possible
reasons: First, the influenza virus is more stable in cold temperature, and respiratory droplets, as containers of viruses, remain airborne longer in dry air[15, 16]. Second, cold and dry weather can also weaken the hosts’ immunity and make them more susceptible to the virus[17, 18]. These mechanisms are also likely to apply to the COVID-19 transmission. Our result is also consistent with the evidence that high temperature and high relative humidity reduce the viability of SARS coronavirus[19,20]. ...

If people stay at home for most of their time under the restrictions of the isolation policy, weather conditions are unlikely to influence the virus transmission due to no chance of contacts between people. Wuhan City imposed travel restriction at 10 a.m. on January 23, but a large amount of people left Wuhan before 10 a.m. on that day, therefore, our sample still includes January 23....

Temperature and relative humidity have quite strong influences on R values, with 1% significant levels for both. Relative humidity has a stronger significance than the temperature does, due to its larger daily fluctuation relative to the temperature. Note that since GDP per capita and population density do not change from January 21 to 23, their effects are, therefore, absorbed in the fixed effects dummies in the fixed-effects panel regressions. One degree Celsius increase in temperature and one percent increase in relative humidity lower the R value by 0.0383 and 0.0224, respectively...

In this paper the R0 is calculated at 3.968 - 0.0383 temperature - 0.0224 relative humidity

Now before anyone gets an incorrect idea what this means, it should be understood that the disease will continue spreading, although at slower rates. Slower spread means more gradual case accumulation. This delay allows health providers and hospitals to better deal with the inevitable onslaught of this illness.

By the way, the beneficial rays of the sun provide disease-killing UV light. You might consider getting UV for your home. The following illustration does not constitute an endorsement of these particular products.

Source: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3553617 From here you can download the entire article, which is well-written and clear. The statistics are beyond me so please only assume that the statisticians are correct.

NOT THIS

[video:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=In7z7B87Puc]

BUT THIS

[video:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CKh0dLIuIu8]

Walking on sunshine and don't it feel good!

Tags:

pandemic

hot weather

COVID-19

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Comments

Submitted by peachcreek on Sat, 03/14/2020 - 1:35am

To be clear and a little more complete on one of your points:

By the way, the beneficial rays of the sun provide disease-killing UV light. You might consider getting UV for your home.

"Short Wave UV" (in the ~ 260nM range) is used to kill bacteria and viruses and works by covalently modifying DNA and RNA in these organisms. They can no longer accurately transcribe their DNA or translate their RNA and...die.

AND: Such "germicidal" light, of course, also can give you skin cancer and cataracts. So please, minimize exposure of yourself, especially your eyes, to this light!

Seriously, I grew up in the south and we were outside almost all the time if the sun was up. There was no sunscreen back then. Sunglasses? Not so much except as a fashion statement.

And, I also worked around UV lights a good bit in my research career. Several times I recall, even with a uv face shield, my eyes feeling "sandy" at night after a long session of hovering over a "light box" purifying various fragments of DNA or RNA..So who knows whether my environmental exposure up until 22 years old or work exposure subsequently lead to a problem. But...I needed cataract surgery for both eyes at 58years old. My other siblings, even though they stayed in the South and I moved to the Pacific Northwest rain and fog, have yet to need surgery.

So, if you go this route, turn on the light and LEAVE!

On the other hand, it is a wimpy RNA virus. Diluted bleach or good old soap will kill it dead.

Submitted by Alligator Ed on Sat, 03/14/2020 - 3:20am

Good comments. about the powers of UV

@peachcreek
But before you castigate RNA viruses as wimpy, consider that most pandemics or epidemics are RNA virus induced.

Submitted by mimi on Sat, 03/14/2020 - 5:49am

What is better, a drug that kills the virus or a vaccine?

@Alligator Ed @Alligator Ed @Alligator Ed
As far as I understand the media here in Germany, the government wants to slow down the process of spreading of the virus by enforcing the shutdown of gatherings of more than 500 people and enforce the shutdown of schools, kindergardens and public buildings like museum and cultural meeting places and sport events etc.

The time the researchers get to work on a drug or vaccine development, may be given to them by those measures, but considering that it is unclear if - once an infected person develops antibodies that might or might not protect from a second follow-up infection - when that is still unclear, I ask myself, why would the development of a vaccine be better than the development of a drug that kills the virus outright?

I hope they develop a drug that kills the sucker. I have less trust in a vaccine. Is that a reasonable opinion to have?

Then I have to wonder if the mental health issues in the population might not be a much larger problem, once people can't find a way to think rationally, and literally lose their minds over it and be a danger to themselves and others, especially as the trust into police forces and the awareness of total surveillance - be it online or offline - did sink in. But I don't want even an answer to that. I just wonder, which is damning enough for my mind. So there are articles now, discussing what the German police is allowed to do and what not in order to enforce the regulations that the government has now announced and will be implemented as soon as Monday.

Here is a good article:

Welche Medikamente könnten bei Covid-19 helfen = Which drugs could help with regards to the Corona Virus.
I am not through with reading and absorbing it and do not have the nerves to translate the thing. But I have enough of reading comprehension skills (in German) to know that article is worthwhile to read and consider.

In the city of Berlin, Germany, 300,000 children are affected by kindergarden/elementary school closings, that means 300,000 thousand parents have to arrange for other ways of care and supervision of those kids. At the same time grandparents, if they exist, should not get in contact with their grandkids. I can well imagine that parents will not be able to comply with those requirements. That then leads to 'behavior' which is considered more or less punishable, illegal or whatever. Good Luck with all of that.

—

https://www.euronews.com/live

Submitted by Alligator Ed on Sat, 03/14/2020 - 10:40pm

Yes--

@mimi In my jaded opinion, tainted by the swine flu vaccine disaster in 1976, my choice is definitely a drug that can kill the virus once you have it and prevent high risk peo[le from even contracting it in the first place.

#1.1 #1.1 #1.1
As far as I understand the media here in Germany, the government wants to slow down the process of spreading of the virus by enforcing the shutdown of gatherings of more than 500 people and enforce the shutdown of schools, kindergardens and public buildings like museum and cultural meeting places and sport events etc.

The time the researchers get to work on a drug or vaccine development, may be given to them by those measures, but considering that it is unclear if - once an infected person develops antibodies that might or might not protect from a second follow-up infection - when that is still unclear, I ask myself, why would the development of a vaccine be better than the development of a drug that kills the virus outright?

I hope they develop a drug that kills the sucker. I have less trust in a vaccine. Is that a reasonable opinion to have?

Then I have to wonder if the mental health issues in the population might not be a much larger problem, once people can't find a way to think rationally, and literally lose their minds over it and be a danger to themselves and others, especially as the trust into police forces and the awareness of total surveillance - be it online or offline - did sink in. But I don't want even an answer to that. I just wonder, which is damning enough for my mind. So there are articles now, discussing what the German police is allowed to do and what not in order to enforce the regulations that the government has now announced and will be implemented as soon as Monday.

Here is a good article:

Welche Medikamente könnten bei Covid-19 helfen = Which drugs could help with regards to the Corona Virus.
I am not through with reading and absorbing it and do not have the nerves to translate the thing. But I have enough of reading comprehension skills (in German) to know that article is worthwhile to read and consider.

In the city of Berlin, Germany, 300,000 children are affected by kindergarden/elementary school closings, that means 300,000 thousand parents have to arrange for other ways of care and supervision of those kids. At the same time grandparents, if they exist, should not get in contact with their grandkids. I can well imagine that parents will not be able to comply with those requirements. That then leads to 'behavior' which is considered more or less punishable, illegal or whatever. Good Luck with all of that.

Submitted by CB on Mon, 03/16/2020 - 6:56pm

Viruses are extremely difficult to kill

@mimi
In point of fact, viruses in the wild on their own are not really "living" things. They require living cells to replicate.

Can Viruses Be Killed?

Viruses – The Undead Microorganisms

Perhaps you didn’t know this, but viruses remain dormant when they aren’t living inside a host organism, i.e., a living being.
...
Is There a Way to Kill Viruses?

Viruses are very tricky things to handle. Take, for example, the case of HIV. Once the HIV virus starts to replicate, it’s difficult to distinguish a healthy cell from an infected one. How do you expect to kill something like that?

Scientists have been searching for an answer to the very same questions for many years. There have been numerous experiments and theories concerning the best way to handle viral infections.
...

#1.1 #1.1 #1.1
As far as I understand the media here in Germany, the government wants to slow down the process of spreading of the virus by enforcing the shutdown of gatherings of more than 500 people and enforce the shutdown of schools, kindergardens and public buildings like museum and cultural meeting places and sport events etc.

The time the researchers get to work on a drug or vaccine development, may be given to them by those measures, but considering that it is unclear if - once an infected person develops antibodies that might or might not protect from a second follow-up infection - when that is still unclear, I ask myself, why would the development of a vaccine be better than the development of a drug that kills the virus outright?

I hope they develop a drug that kills the sucker. I have less trust in a vaccine. Is that a reasonable opinion to have?

Then I have to wonder if the mental health issues in the population might not be a much larger problem, once people can't find a way to think rationally, and literally lose their minds over it and be a danger to themselves and others, especially as the trust into police forces and the awareness of total surveillance - be it online or offline - did sink in. But I don't want even an answer to that. I just wonder, which is damning enough for my mind. So there are articles now, discussing what the German police is allowed to do and what not in order to enforce the regulations that the government has now announced and will be implemented as soon as Monday.

Here is a good article:

Welche Medikamente könnten bei Covid-19 helfen = Which drugs could help with regards to the Corona Virus.
I am not through with reading and absorbing it and do not have the nerves to translate the thing. But I have enough of reading comprehension skills (in German) to know that article is worthwhile to read and consider.

In the city of Berlin, Germany, 300,000 children are affected by kindergarden/elementary school closings, that means 300,000 thousand parents have to arrange for other ways of care and supervision of those kids. At the same time grandparents, if they exist, should not get in contact with their grandkids. I can well imagine that parents will not be able to comply with those requirements. That then leads to 'behavior' which is considered more or less punishable, illegal or whatever. Good Luck with all of that.

Submitted by Alligator Ed on Mon, 03/16/2020 - 7:45pm

Your point is valid

@CB Antiretroviral drugs do not generally kill the organism. They prevent the virus from replicating, thus allowing the immune system to disassemble the viruses, hence killing them in vivo.

Submitted by Lookout on Sat, 03/14/2020 - 6:38am

get outside in the sun...

@peachcreek

It is healthy for a number of reasons. I'm to the point of wanting to just get the damn virus...quarantine for a couple of weeks and become immune (although I have read that there are relapses). It is my understanding that most people will become infected over the next year.

—

“Until justice rolls down like water and righteousness like a mighty stream.”

Submitted by Pluto's Republic on Sat, 03/14/2020 - 10:28pm

I don't think there is even immediate immunity

@Lookout

I've heard that it disrupts immunity altogether, even past immunity. That could change because the virus is evolving. There have been cases of people being reinfected. Also, it's not a hard fast rule that only the elderly die of complications. Maybe skip coming down with the disease. Possibly the smartest protection is to get a pneumonia vaccination — well... smart according to me. Nowhere have I seen this in the literature, however, even though it makes all the sense in the world. But then, it wouldn't be in the 'literature' unless it was tested, and no one except me wants to go out on a limb. Of course it's possible that the reason that pneumonia vaccine (I & II) is not an immediate protocol to save lives in the US, is because we don't have enough vaccine on hand. It's like the face mask fiasco. Just tell the People masks do more harm than good. They'll believe authorities.

—

IMAGINE if you woke up the day after a US Presidential Election and headlines around the the world blared, "The Majority of Americans Refused to Vote in US Presidential Election! What Does this Mean?"

Submitted by CB on Mon, 03/16/2020 - 8:01pm

I got the PPSV23 pneumococcal vaccine last month.

@Pluto's Republic
Cost me $140.00. My doc advised it because I had got pneumonia from the hospital after my colectomy last fall. The pneumonia was worse than the operation.

I used to pride myself "strong like bull" until last year. I'm falling apart. I'll be 73 next month.

Submitted by Alligator Ed on Tue, 03/17/2020 - 3:13am

I had the same reaction 8 years ago

@CB Never again. No flu shots. Likely no pneumonia vaccine for me either.

Submitted by CB on Tue, 03/17/2020 - 9:41am

I didn't get sick from the pneumonia vaccine

@Alligator Ed
I had come down with Hospital-acquired pneumonia (HAP) after finishing 7 day hospitalization for colectomy last fall.

any pneumonia contracted by a patient in a hospital at least 48–72 hours after being admitted. It is thus distinguished from community-acquired pneumonia. It is usually caused by a bacterial infection, rather than a virus.

New or progressive infiltrate on the chest X-ray with one of the following:

Fever > 37.8 °C (100 °F)

Purulent sputum

Leukocytosis > 10,000 cells/μl

In an elderly person, the first sign of hospital-acquired pneumonia may be mental changes or confusion. Other symptoms may include:

A cough with greenish or pus-like phlegm (sputum)

Fever and chills

General discomfort, uneasiness, or ill feeling (malaise)

Loss of appetite

Nausea and vomiting

Sharp chest pain that gets worse with deep breathing or coughing

Shortness of breath

Decreased blood pressure and fast heart rate

I felt like I was drowning. VERY painful to breath but got little O2 with each breath. Lungs felt like a laundry sack of wet clothing. I got a ten day course of some kind of antibiotic. Took about 1 month to recover.

In January I got the PPSV23 pneumococcal vaccine.

Pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine (PPSV)—known as Pneumovax 23 (PPV-23)—is the first pneumococcal vaccine derived from a capsular polysaccharide, and an important landmark in medical history. The polysaccharide antigens were used to induce type-specific antibodies that enhanced opsonization, phagocytosis, and killing of Streptococcus pneumoniae (pneumococcal) bacteria by phagocytic immune cells. The pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine is widely used in high-risk adults.[2] As a result, there have been important reductions in the incidence, morbidity, and mortality from invasive pneumococcal disease.

I don't have any underlying medical conditions other than age. BTW, people mostly die from bacterial infections after contracting COVID-19. I'm vaccinated for 23 of them now.

Submitted by Alligator Ed on Tue, 03/17/2020 - 1:18pm

Interesting experience

@CB I got my pneumonia injection hours before my pacemaker revision. The next morning I was still in hospital because this was an overnight stay. I developed T 102˚ = you're not going home today, pal. This pissed me off, but what could I do, being a hapless patient instead of the mean, overbearing physician I was usually. So, another happy day watching the boob tube because I hadn't brought my laptop with me. That'll learn me.

I do not believe that autopsy evidence of pneumonic disorders secondary to Wu Flu have been published. If they are, send me a link if you will, please. Bacterial superinfection is what usually knocks off influenza patients, especially the elderly of course. We both are in the walking geezer category. I actually don't walk. But hey I can slither on my belly like a reptile.

#1.2.1.1.1 I had come down with Hospital-acquired pneumonia (HAP) after finishing 7 day hospitalization for colectomy last fall. any pneumonia contracted by a patient in a hospital at least 48–72 hours after being admitted. It is thus distinguished from community-acquired pneumonia. It is usually caused by a bacterial infection, rather than a virus. New or progressive infiltrate on the chest X-ray with one of the following: Fever > 37.8 °C (100 °F) Purulent sputum Leukocytosis > 10,000 cells/μl In an elderly person, the first sign of hospital-acquired pneumonia may be mental changes or confusion. Other symptoms may include: A cough with greenish or pus-like phlegm (sputum) Fever and chills General discomfort, uneasiness, or ill feeling (malaise) Loss of appetite Nausea and vomiting Sharp chest pain that gets worse with deep breathing or coughing Shortness of breath Decreased blood pressure and fast heart rate I felt like I was drowning. VERY painful to breath but got little O2 with each breath. Lungs felt like a laundry sack of wet clothing. I got a ten day course of some kind of antibiotic. Took about 1 month to recover. In January I got the PPSV23 pneumococcal vaccine. Pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine (PPSV)—known as Pneumovax 23 (PPV-23)—is the first pneumococcal vaccine derived from a capsular polysaccharide, and an important landmark in medical history. The polysaccharide antigens were used to induce type-specific antibodies that enhanced opsonization, phagocytosis, and killing of Streptococcus pneumoniae (pneumococcal) bacteria by phagocytic immune cells. The pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine is widely used in high-risk adults.[2] As a result, there have been important reductions in the incidence, morbidity, and mortality from invasive pneumococcal disease. I don't have any underlying medical conditions other than age. BTW, people mostly die from bacterial infections after contracting COVID-19. I'm vaccinated for 23 of them now.

Submitted by Pluto's Republic on Sat, 03/14/2020 - 10:35pm

Nice data you got there, ed.

I ran across a chart earlier that illustrates flattening the curve. The number of infections remain the same, of course. The chart was used to suggest that periodic enforced quarantine across a population flattens the curve, as well.

z.flatten_the_curve1.gif

—

IMAGINE if you woke up the day after a US Presidential Election and headlines around the the world blared, "The Majority of Americans Refused to Vote in US Presidential Election! What Does this Mean?"

Submitted by Alligator Ed on Sat, 03/14/2020 - 10:44pm

caucus99percent
free-range politics, organic community

Maybe we won't have the summertime blues. Maybe the pandemic slows

Comments

To be clear and a little more complete on one of your points:

Good comments. about the powers of UV

What is better, a drug that kills the virus or a vaccine?

Yes--

Viruses are extremely difficult to kill

Your point is valid

get outside in the sun...

I don't think there is even immediate immunity

IMAGINE if you woke up the day after a US Presidential Election and headlines around the the world blared, "The Majority of Americans Refused to Vote in US Presidential Election! What Does this Mean?"

I got the PPSV23 pneumococcal vaccine last month.

I had the same reaction 8 years ago

I didn't get sick from the pneumonia vaccine

Interesting experience

Nice data you got there, ed.

IMAGINE if you woke up the day after a US Presidential Election and headlines around the the world blared, "The Majority of Americans Refused to Vote in US Presidential Election! What Does this Mean?"

Thanks, Pluto

World cases now equal to China

Yay! USA USA USA