FiveThirtyEight Predictions--Sanders Surges!!!

You may recall in an essay I wrote 12 days ago that FiveThirtyEight was predicting Sanders would win only 3 states--New Hampshire, California, and Vermont--during the entire 2020 primary/caucus elections.

As of now, that has changed quite dramatically.

Only focusing on the results through SuperTuesday (March 3), let's look at FiveThirtyEight's predictions now:

Sanders wins: New Hampshire, Nevada, California, Minnesota, Colorado, Utah, Maine, and Vermont. (8 states + maybe Iowa)

Warren wins: Massachusetts (1 state)

Biden wins: South Carolina, Texas, North Carolina, Virginia, Tennessee, Alabama, Oklahoma, Arkansas, American Samoa, and Michigan (9 states and 1 territory + maybe Iowa)

Iowa is about a 50/50 split with Biden, currently estimated at Biden winning 12 delegates and Sanders 11 delegates, but technically, a Biden win. The latest A+ rated pollster (Siena College/New York Times), however, shows Sanders winning in Iowa by 7%--over Buttigieg, not even Biden, who appears third. I'd say it's currently an undecided draw.

Besides those earliest states, it looks like Washington state and Democrats Abroad are now falling into a Sanders victory (they vote on March 10, right after SuperTuesday), and Wisconsin may be trending in the direction of Sanders as well.

If these results hold, and Sanders comes into SuperTuesday holding the majority of delegates, other states may change their results. Remember, Sanders won Oklahoma and Michigan in 2016 against the Clinton machine, much to the surprise of everyone. Will those states reprise their love of Sanders in 2020?

FiveThirtyEight still has Biden winning every state after March 10 to be the frontrunner, even gaining delegates from their last estimate, even though Sanders is winning at least 7 more contests from him:

Total Delegates Expected (according to FiveThirtyEight estimates)
Candidate------->12 days ago------>Now

Biden ------------>1,503----------->1,506
Sanders---------->1,022----------->1,160
Warren------------->737------------->652
Buttigieg----------->506------------->473

Iowa votes in just 9 days! Let's see what happens!

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Not Henry Kissinger's picture

2020 will not be kind to Nate Silver.

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37 users have voted.

The current working assumption appears to be that our Shroedinger's Cat system is still alive. But what if we all suspect it's not, and the real problem is we just can't bring ourselves to open the box?

@Not Henry Kissinger @Not Henry Kissinger IIRC, his first year was his best and it’s all been downhill since then. Seems like he’s been riding that first year’s success ever since.

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Not Henry Kissinger's picture

@Dr. John Carpenter @Dr. John Carpenter

Nate picked 49 of 50 states and DC in the general. In 2012 he picked all 50.

In 2016 he was terrible in both parties' primaries and the general...

Nate Silver Ages 40 Years After Accidentally Using Polling Projection Model On Self

2020 is shaping up to be even worse for Nate.

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3 users have voted.

The current working assumption appears to be that our Shroedinger's Cat system is still alive. But what if we all suspect it's not, and the real problem is we just can't bring ourselves to open the box?

@Not Henry Kissinger I remembered anxiously refreshing his page in 2008. Since then, he looks more like a good guesser one time than any sort of talent.

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Dawn's Meta's picture

There are a number of assigned delegates which makes this group larger than several states.

We can vote with DA in both the primary and general elections.

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20 users have voted.

A society grows great when old men plant trees in whose shade they know they shall never sit. Allegedly Greek, but more possibly fairly modern quote.

Consider helping by donating using the button in the upper left hand corner. Thank you.

lotlizard's picture

@Dawn's Meta  
For the general, you have to make sure you’re registered with, and get a mail-in ballot from, that state — you can’t vote through Democrats Abroad, that’s only for the primary.

What Democrats Abroad can do is give a good step-by-step explanation of the process, which varies in details (deadlines, who to write to, etc.) depending on the state.

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Dawn's Meta's picture

@lotlizard @lotlizard already. This is well set out in the DA site. It is better to go one step at a time and to be sure we can vote for Bernie in the primary. Then vote for who we think we would like in the general.

Beyond Congressional seats and key positions in the state, we have little investment in our last state of domicile.

We do care about environmental issues top down, and will vote on people and issues that can influence the climate and sustainability resilience.

Edit to add: we have been told for the general we can leave the top spot unvoted on the state ballot. Then we can vote on a special ballot issued by DA.

We are in contact with the DA here in France, and hope we keep it all straight.

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10 users have voted.

A society grows great when old men plant trees in whose shade they know they shall never sit. Allegedly Greek, but more possibly fairly modern quote.

Consider helping by donating using the button in the upper left hand corner. Thank you.

lotlizard's picture

@Dawn's Meta  
to the Electoral College . . .

Then we can vote on a special ballot issued by DA.

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3 users have voted.

@lotlizard

possible/legal/ethical?

can't really see problems w/ethical, but...

I am an expat - have always voted in my home state - Oregon - and am not currently registered Dem.

But was intending to register D to vote in the Oregon
May primary and had not had DA on my radar at all.

The other action I would miss out on - although I'm prepared to do it, would be in the Republican primary, where the incumbent is, thankfully, retiring and half a dozen people are running to replace him - it's the only safe Republican house district in Oregon so the action is all likely to be in the primary.

But it looks like I could possibly:

Register Democrat

Vote in the DA March primary (go Tulsi!)

Re-register Republican and vote in the Oregon primary in May

Good/Bad/Feasible?

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lotlizard's picture

@Blue Republic

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@lotlizard

I'll get after researching it.

"The large print giveth and the fine print taketh away."

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Dawn's Meta's picture

@Blue Republic you lived in before you left. Give your domicile address the last county you lived in before you went abroad; that county will sign you up for absentee ballots.

DA has an excellent website.

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3 users have voted.

A society grows great when old men plant trees in whose shade they know they shall never sit. Allegedly Greek, but more possibly fairly modern quote.

Consider helping by donating using the button in the upper left hand corner. Thank you.

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Not Henry Kissinger's picture

@humphrey

History of @DMRegister #iacaucus endorsements:

1988: Bob Dole - R; Paul Simon-D

1996: Bob Dole - R

2000: W Bush - R; Bill Bradley-D

2004: John Edwards - D

2008: John McCain - R; H Clinton-D

2012: Mitt Romney - R

2016: Marco Rubio - R; H Clinton-D

2020: Elizabeth Warren-D

More like the Kiss of Death than an endorsement.

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25 users have voted.

The current working assumption appears to be that our Shroedinger's Cat system is still alive. But what if we all suspect it's not, and the real problem is we just can't bring ourselves to open the box?

Bernie will win at least Michigan, Oklahoma, Massachusetts and Washington.
Biden might not win anything after super Tuesday.
Not only will Warren not win Massachusetts, she might not win reelection to the senate.
Bernie will go to the convention with a wide lead.
Biden, if he does not drop out, will not have won any state outside of the Confederacy.
If Bernie does not win on the first ballot the winner will not be anyone now in the race. (dark horse - a friend said this morning that Bloomberg could make every delegate in the convention a millionaire. Hillary also has a slight chance, but most likely the corruptocrats will go with a conservadem senator from a southern state. Kaine? Warner? Zombozo!)
"Vote for Zombozo! At least he's not Trump!"

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17 users have voted.

A PROUD Hillary hater since 1993

@doh1304
and go on to campaign for Biden/Bloomberg.
I'm really put off by his still spouting Russiagate bullshit.

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11 users have voted.

We are so screwed.

Wally's picture

@The Voice In the Wilderness

But by significant enough margins? Who knows?

Only Biden and Bernie will win delegates in those states (and most states for that matter).

Don't forget the new state-by-state 15% threshold qualification rule to be awarded state delegates.

Bernie will need to get 51% of delegates on the first ballot. It won't be easy. There's going to be a lot of horsetrading of delegates as we proceed towards the convention.

Otherwise, the decision will be made on the second ballot by superdelegates.

Vote wisely! I suppose giving up on electoral politics is a short range option, too.

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6 users have voted.

@The Voice In the Wilderness

makes me want to pound my head on the floor.
love to be wrong.

but it if he "loses" that is what he'll do.
again.

gee whiz.

and Russia. why doesn't he get the facts on this?
not a small thing in my book.
somebody in the campaign needs to straighten him out.

The Russian Facebook campaign was small potatoes.
most clicks after the election.
why does he continue this bulls**t?
the truth is out there.

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9 users have voted.

@irishking that Bernie is probably privately skeptical on R-gate nonsense, but goes thru the motions in public to back it, moderately, in order to keep the DS wolves away from him. He already has the lefty-socialist stuff to deal with, which is more than enough.

The latest CBS Iowa Tracking Poll has Bernie slightly ahead of Joe. What is important is Sanders is the 2d choice of most Liz supporters, and she's currently right on the fence at 15%, so in some precincts she might fall short and so her backers would likely largely choose Bernie. Klobbachair (7%) (who looks like she won't make the 15% threshold) backers have Biden as their 2d pick.

A few more key points: Most IA voters haven't made up their mind yet. Of those who have, Bernie far and away leads the pack (48%) in supporters who've definitely decided. Biden trails badly in 4th at 27%, reflecting soft support. And another first for Bernie on the question of Who Will Fight A Lot For You, high 60s, while Biden again trails badly in 4th place, less that 40%.

Looks to me like Bernie is well positioned to win IA. Will be interesting to see how the MSM spins it if Biden finishes 3d.

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Wally's picture

@wokkamile

Obviously, Yang and Tulsi will get less than 15% and I expect most of their caucus supporters will turn to Bernie.

A lot hinges on if Warren gets the 15% or not. If she doesn't, I'd like to think most of her supporters will go to Bernie but I think a sizeable percentage will go to Biden. I wonder what she's instructing her captains to do in terms of steering caucus goers to her preferred alternate candidate if she falls short. We'll find out that day how much of a snake she really is -- my guess is very snakey.

Will Buttigieg manage to get 15%? Same scenario as with Warren if he doesn't. If he gets the 15%, he's taking votes away from Biden.

All the other candidates's voters will mostly turn to Biden, unless either or both Warren and Buttigieg hit the 15% requirement for delegates. That will be a free for all.

It's gonna get hairy. I may actually break my 4 year boycott of MSM that day unless TYT has some live coverage.

As far as R-gate goes, I guess folks on the left can vote in November for someone who combatted it, and watch their candidate assuredly lose.

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6 users have voted.

@wokkamile
as foreign election interference, IMHO.

But there is also the oldie,"It's a caucus not a primary so the voters are radical extremists." REAL voters still prefer Biden (TM).

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1 user has voted.

We are so screwed.

@The Voice In the Wilderness @The Voice In the Wilderness - this morning while contemplating various innocuous incidents from Bernie's past which the lying MSM could use to sink his chances, his 1988 visit to Burlington's sister city in Russia (https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/inside-bernie-sanderss-1988-10-d...) surfaced and though his motives are innocent and understandable to us, the anti-Bernie crowd will milk it for all it's worth and more. They will play it to the hilt, and we as his supporters must be ready to meet it with our own force.

Then it occurred -- this could be the reason for Bernie's ridiculous protestations against all things Russian. He has been conducting a preemptive strike against what he knew was coming his way should his numbers rise high enough.

I can totally forgive him for this.

(Edited to reposition the WaPo link & thereby hopefully avoid confusion)

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5 users have voted.

Lurking in the wings is Hillary, like some terrifying bat hanging by her feet in a cavern below the DNC. A bat with theropod instincts. -- Fred Reed https://tinyurl.com/vgvuhcl

Fionnsboy's picture

Why is anyone listening to Silver anymore (though I THANK YOU for this great diary!)

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8 users have voted.

Semper ubi sub ubi

Cant Stop the Macedonian Signal's picture

that my response to this is muddied with suspicion.

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Actually, the issue at stake is patriotism. You must return to your world and put an end to the Commies. All it takes are a few good men.
--Q

Exit polls not involving George W. Bush or Hillary Clinton tend to be quite accurate.
--Doug Hatlem

coverage of Sanders by the cable networks. It makes me think that the slight attitude shift is coordinated and decreed from above, and is bait for a trap.
@Cant Stop the Macedonian Signal

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Cant Stop the Macedonian Signal's picture

@entrepreneur

They proved that in 2016. But they can't necessarily stop him in a plausible way. It's possible that, if they can't do that, they will try to absorb his campaign and movement for their own purposes. Or build him up in order to tear him down, which is even more likely.

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7 users have voted.

Actually, the issue at stake is patriotism. You must return to your world and put an end to the Commies. All it takes are a few good men.
--Q

Exit polls not involving George W. Bush or Hillary Clinton tend to be quite accurate.
--Doug Hatlem

Wally's picture

@Cant Stop the Macedonian Signal

I’m considering the take that the MSM has played nice to Bernie the past few days because they've simply come to the conclusion they will actually profit more from a Bernie-Trump contest which would spike their ratings. Watching Trump-Biden coverage day after day would be an exercise likely only be enjoyed by liberal/lefty watchers who tend towards masochism. It would be like watching game after game reruns of the Mets first season in MLB. Of course, I suppose some lefties might more sadistically enjoy Trump slaying Biden. I plan to tune out completely in the event of a Trump - Biden contest. I simply can't imagine there being enough people being enthusiatic about such a race boosting ratings. So in terms of profitablity for the MSM, they have good reason to encourage a Bernie candidacy.

Also, this article by Lauren Martinchek: The DNC is Getting Ready For a Contested Convention, and So Should Bernie’s Base.

with recent polls showing Bernie now in a lead outside the margin of error in both Iowa and New Hampshire, statistically tied with Biden nationally, and currently the favorite in California as well, it’s looking as though he has every shot of winning this nomination. I think it might even be safe to say Bernie is emerging as the favorite.

She goes on to detail all the new power plays Tom Perez is putting in place in terms of organization and administration of the convention, but then concludes:

Everything depends on Bernie getting fifty one percent of the delegates beforehand, and it is up to his base to turn out in record numbers to make sure that happens. If he does so, these people will not have a say.

Not them (the 1%), us (the 99%).

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6 users have voted.

@Wally to Biden v Donald, first we must kiss what's left of democracy in this country goodbye. Especially re rights for any darker-than-white skinned immigrants. Political dissenters, esp in the media and online, will find it hazardous to their liberty.

Second, I plan on unplugging from the teevee and all political news. Third, I'll be probably become a regular in some of our local forests, full-time Squatcher. Figger if I don't spot The Big Guy, at least I'll improve on my wilderness and survival skills. Those skills could come in handy real soon by the looks of it.

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3 users have voted.
Fionnsboy's picture

@Wally Yes, just read (and shared) that piece on Fb-- and Perez is stacking the deck (of course) with the usual suspects (among them the now loathsome Barney Frank, who is as 'liberal' (says the author) in his feelings for Bernie, as Neera Tanden. Oi. If we weren't on the very edge of the abyss, I would almost wish for the DNC to fuck Bernie over again, and run Biden or Liz against Trump-- and lose again-- in the hopes that it would destroy this sad and corrupt caricature of a party forever. But we are at the edge of the abyss-- which is why I'm praying for Bernie. Yes, praying!

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7 users have voted.

Semper ubi sub ubi

Cant Stop the Macedonian Signal's picture

@Wally

I plan to tune out completely in the event of a Trump - Biden contest.

Me too. Actually, I would do the same for pretty much anything other than a Trump-Bernie contest or the almost impossible Trump-Tulsi contest (I'd love to see Gabbard take Trump apart. She doesn't have Bernie's kindness. She also doesn't have equally good domestic policy, though. They'd actually be a great ticket, in a politics that allowed that--they could compliment each other well.)

I’m considering the take that the MSM has played nice to Bernie the past few days because they've simply come to the conclusion they will actually profit more from a Bernie-Trump contest which would spike their ratings.

I could easily imagine CNN, MSNBC and the DNC deciding that they would let Bernie get the nomination so that he would lose to Trump and they could claim for the rest of eternity that Bernie's values and ideas were the reason for the loss. The only way Bernie would lose to Trump is if someone committed fraud on Trump's behalf, but that would be no problem. Then Trump could also stay in office, which, contrary to popular belief, would be great for the Democratic party, most of whom would have no support whatsoever without Trump there to parade about as a boogeyman.

I have no idea how the impeachment plays into any of this. I can't imagine they can actually impeach him.

it is up to his base to turn out in record numbers to make sure that happens. If he does so, these people will not have a say.

If we had a republic, then yes, it would be up to his base, and we could prevent those lying bastards from having a say. As things stand, I don't see what's to stop the lying bastards from tweaking the results just enough that Bernie doesn't make 51%, and then parachuting in Hillary or someone else to "save the day." Also, as I said above, I don't believe the Democrats are so politically naive--or so concerned for the country--that they don't understand the great boon Donald Trump is to all of them. Well, all of them except for the handful of dissidents still within the party's bounds.

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0 users have voted.

Actually, the issue at stake is patriotism. You must return to your world and put an end to the Commies. All it takes are a few good men.
--Q

Exit polls not involving George W. Bush or Hillary Clinton tend to be quite accurate.
--Doug Hatlem

Cant Stop the Macedonian Signal's picture

urban mid-Atlantic guys who are corrupt tools of the banking industry so very much.

Then again, the South went for Hillary last time.

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7 users have voted.

Actually, the issue at stake is patriotism. You must return to your world and put an end to the Commies. All it takes are a few good men.
--Q

Exit polls not involving George W. Bush or Hillary Clinton tend to be quite accurate.
--Doug Hatlem

as it mostly reflects polling done a week ago, or more. Very little post Rogan semi endorsement, and I think most of Bernies momentum has come from a) people deciding they need to choose amongst the leaders and that means Sanders or Biden. The trend on 538 is definitely strongly upwards for Sanders. Nate Silver might have his own preferred candidate but I don't think he puts his fingers on the scales. Sanders is already positioning for the general.

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Bernie does seem to be peaking at the right time, but my IA worry is in the 2nd choicers. Kobluchar's support is likely to be distributed uniformly across the state (though better near the MN border), so she might fail viability in most places. Meanwhile Warren is likely to do well in cities and terrible in rural areas, so most of her votes will be in places she is viable.

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