The news media has been unusually quiet about oil prices this election year, but that might change soon.

Brent crude oil hovered close to its highest since November 2014 on Monday, supported by supply concerns before U.S. sanctions against Iran come into force next month.

Benchmark Brent crude oil futures rose 48 cents to $83.21 at 9:48 a.m. ET (1348 GMT), having touched their highest in almost four years at $83.32. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were up 26 cents at $73.51 a barrel.

"Saudi Arabia are signalling that they do not have a lot of prompt spare capacity available, or that they don't have the will to really use it on a proactive basis," said Petromatrix strategist Olivier Jakob.

According to AAA, gas prices are at their highest in four years.
Suburban and rural voters have noticed.
High energy prices typically coincide with recessions, and there is fear that this time is no different.

Oil prices have broken out of a "sweet spot" for global economic growth and could herald a U.S. recession if they keep rising, UBS warns.
The Swiss investment bank on Tuesday joined a chorus of financial institutions in pondering the economic impact of oil prices at $100 a barrel.

Most of this is due to Trump's sanctions on Iran, plus the legacy of our regime change in Libya.

Into this tight oil supply environment there is the danger of a black swan event from Iraq.

Oil and gas analysts have been keenly watching OPEC’s efforts to find a solution for its production and export problems, with the Iranian sanctions looming. Due to this supra-regional development, not a lot of attention has been given to the ongoing clashes within Iraq, a leading member of OPEC.

Iraq has two concurrent and unrelated crises that could disrupt oil production, and cause a huge spike in already high oil prices.
One crisis is in the north.

In 1998, the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) reached a power-sharing agreement after nearly four years of civil war. Now 20 years later, the KDP is on its way to renege on its obligations and exclude the PUK from the next Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG).

The outcome of these renewed tensions between the KDP and the PUK will be determined by the upcoming parliamentary elections in the KRG. If the KDP wins the majority of votes on September 30 and decides to sideline the PUK, the region might witness another wave of instability or even a violent conflict.

The KDP is indeed winning, and there are accusations of voter fraud.

The second crisis is in the south.

Iraq's oil-rich Basra province is being rocked by renewed violence as summer protests regain momentum, threatening oil facilities and the country's leadership.

Thousands of Iraqis have been taking to the streets daily over the last week, torching government buildings and political party offices in a show of anger against abject living conditions, government corruption and foreign influence.
...As home to most of the oil production facilities for OPEC's second-largest producer, Basra in crisis could have a material impact on oil output and prices, analysts say.

The Basra crisis won't go away because Basra has no clean drinking water.

If either of these crises get out of hand $100 oil will be the least of our problems.