Counting my chickens before they hatch
Submitted by SnappleBC on Tue, 03/08/2016 - 10:33pm
But hey, optimism is sort of necessary if you want to be in a revolution, let's just take it from Nate Silver himself:
If Sanders wins MI tonight, it will break Gary Hart's record in 1984 NH for greatest upset vs. final polling aveage. https://t.co/lSepZ12Kho
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) March 9, 2016
So at this point he's up 50/48 with 92% reporting. I think this is a fine time for a Bernie Money Bomb. I just chipped in my $15.
I don't know about the rest of you but I want to see him go strong into the March 15th primaries.
Comments
The reason why Bernie won tonight: Independents
Michigan was an open primary.
Markos, Nate Silver, Hillary fans, etc.
None of them have been looking at independents (i.e. the people who will be deciding the GE in November).
Independents love Bernie and hate Hillary. Need I say more?
Not to me you don't
I'm an independent and I love Bernie and won't vote for Hillary. I can't hardly believe I'm alone in that. Politicians like Hillary (read that as Obama) are EXACTLY why I'm an independent.
A lot of wanderers in the U.S. political desert recognize that all the duopoly has to offer is a choice of mirages. Come, let us trudge towards empty expanse of sand #1, littered with the bleached bones of Deaniacs and Hope and Changers.
-- lotlizard
If Bernie, God forbid, is not our nominee...
And in particular if the superdelagetes screw the voters, I'll become an independent myself, I expect.
It all depends on Senator Sanders. Not on wether he wins the office, but rather, what he needs from us to keep going regardless.
I have no need to beat you, I just want to go my way."~ Malcolm Renyolds
I don't want to rain
anybody's parade, this is an historic win and very welcome, but look at the vote totals for each party. Dem vote totals with 93.4% counted 1,074,300 vs Reps at 1176582. More than 100k voted Rep in an open primary. Where are the indies actually voting? Nobody has much besides speculation at this point. Without knowing what sort of ratfuckery may be going on, if any, the enthusiasm appears to be with the crazy wing of the US. Again, it may not carry over, or be real, to the general election. My pointless is that there is a long way to go on an emotional roller coaster when we and the "experts" (looking at you Nate) don't know what the fuck is going on with voters. I guess the way forward is celebrate tonight then wake up in the morning and do whatever each of us can to help Bernie.
"Ah, but I was so much older then, I'm younger than that now..."
There was right around 125k difference in Turnout between D/R's
Which isn't great, but if I am not mistaken isn't that a much closer split towards Dems than normal for MI for the last few cycles?
"I used to vote Republican & Democrat, I also used to shit my pants. Eventually I got smart enough to stop doing both things." -Me
I share your concern
With the Democratic party so obviously corrupt and doing everything it can to suppress voter coupled with the Republican party's long-held anger at the Obama White House, the general is going to be a bitch. But I'd rather face that fight with an actually non-corrupt candidate.
A lot of wanderers in the U.S. political desert recognize that all the duopoly has to offer is a choice of mirages. Come, let us trudge towards empty expanse of sand #1, littered with the bleached bones of Deaniacs and Hope and Changers.
-- lotlizard
Oh shit! I forgot, I am not on Dkos anymore!
I can actually say this!
Maybe we need to push for the formation of a new party if we cannot get Sanders to win their BS stacked primary.
Not that we shouldn't support good Dems, but we really need a change, and there is nothing that says parties can't go away.
Look to the Whigs.
We may be seeing the implosion of BOTH major parties this year.
It sure looks like it the way both parties constituents are rejecting their parties "Establishment Candidates"
I think we could pick up a lot of Moderate republicans, a bigger chunk of the Independents and almost HALF of the Democrats with the right platform.
Damn, This is getting me excited to get back into politics, I got burned out on it back when I used to go to DC to lobby for AFL-CIO when I was a Regional VP for AFSCME, but now I feel like we may have a chance to enact some positive change for workers everywhere!
"I used to vote Republican & Democrat, I also used to shit my pants. Eventually I got smart enough to stop doing both things." -Me
yes, yes, and yes again!!
Never be deceived that the rich will allow you to vote away their wealth.-Lucy Parsons