Remember the Predicted Dem Landslide? Anyone Taken Accountability For That Bit of Delusional Thinking?

Not so very long ago, it was common wisdom among the commentariat, whether online or on TV, that Hillary Clinton was about to usher in a game changing landslide victory for Democrats in the 2016 election. Great minds explained in great detail why her victory, and that of her party, were inevitable this election cycle. A few examples will suffice:

Jason Easley of PoliticusUSA (8/31/2016):

Moody’s analytics model has correctly predicted every presidential election since 1980, and their data forecasts a Democratic landslide in 2016.

According to Dan White who is the senior economist at Moody’s Analytics:

Our Moody’s Analytics election model now predicts a Democratic electoral landslide in the 2016 presidential vote. A small change in the forecast data in August has swung the outcome from the statistical tie predicted in July, to a razor-edge ballot outcome that nevertheless gives the incumbent party 326 electoral votes to the Republican challenger’s 212.

San Francisco Chronicle article, "Democrats see Clinton landslide, takeover of Congress on horizon." (10/12/2016):

House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi has been predicting a Democratic takeover of the House every two years since she lost the speakership in 2010. The San Francisco Democrat has been wildly off base each time. Now even Republicans think she could be right. [...]

The ground began to shift toward a potential Clinton landslide about 2½ weeks ago when Republican nominee Donald Trump began a disastrous slide in the polls. Among a multitude of missteps and revelations, Trump bragged that not paying taxes “makes me smart,” and was caught boasting on a 2005 tape about groping women. New polls now show deep-red states such as Georgia drifting within Democratic range. [...]

As Trump hemorrhages critical blocs of swing voters, he is becoming isolated to his narrow base of fervent Republican supporters. That puts Republican politicians down-ballot from Trump in an impossible box: abandon their nominee and with him their own base voters, or stick with Trump and face retribution from the rest of the electorate. [...]

“The ground is moving fast, as we speak,” said Rep. Eric Swalwell, D-Dublin, who has been traveling the country in an outreach effort to young voters. Swalwell said Trump “never misled us about his intentions,” so Republicans who now want to disown him are “going to pay a price for that because they didn’t have the courage to stand up to him early.

“I don't think there’s anywhere for them to hide.”

Martin Longman of Booman Tribune, "Here Comes the Landslide" (10/19/2016):

Among political prognosticators, there have been two main camps in this election. One camp argued that the country has become rigidly polarized to a point where any Republican or Democratic nominee starts out with 40% support and the battle is only over the 20% of voters who don’t align with either side. The other camp, represented by me, argued that there was nothing permanent about our relatively stable red/blue state split and that we’re reaching an inflection point where one side or the other would decisively “win the argument.” [...]

... For more than two years, I’ve been identifying signs that this could well be a landslide election, and I predicted that it wouldn’t be a close election with even more confidence than I predicted that the Democrats would win.

As Nancy pointed out, the polls are now pointing in the direction of a Reagan-sized blowout. Among the signs to look for are evidence that red states are going to fall into Clinton’s arms, that Trump is cratering below the 40% floor, and that Clinton is polling above 50% in the four-way race with a healthy number of undecideds still out there.

For now, though, it looks like I was right. This is not going to be another red state/blue state election. Trump has lost the argument.

If you want more evidence of premature elation over Clinton and the Democratic Party's prospects, feel free to check out the following links: Clinton Consolidates Lead Among Democrats, Trump Not Gaining Republicans; How Big Is Clinton’s Lead?; Florida spirals away from Trump. There are quite a few more, especially if you are willing to look back during the summer months when pundits dreamed of the Clinton machine steamrolling over Trump and the GOP in an electoral win of epic proportions.

So what went wrong? How did so many of these very bright, well-educated people get things so terribly wrong? So wrong in fact that many of them can respond only with paroxysms of outrage and venom against millennials, white men, third party voters, and, of course, Bernie Sanders and his mythical sexist "Bernie Bros."

I can only offer up my gut feeling for what its worth. As I see it, many of these people were very invested in a Clinton victory on both an emotional and financial level. Thus, they rarely looked outside their own echo chamber, much less talked to those who had strong negative opinions of Hillary Clinton, both as a candidate and party standard bearer, much less as a deeply flawed, corrupt human being. They reinforced the facile analysis that dominated corporate media, which emphasized Trump's negatives (of which there were many), and ignored the very real scandals that the wikileaks disclosures revealed regarding Clinton. They believed the polls that often had a built in bias for Clinton.

But this year we saw something different: Almost all the swing state polls overscored Clinton’s numbers by two to six percent. This error is called “systematic” or “correlated error.” Since it affected most or all polls, it was probably caused by some common disrupting factor or factors that were outside the well-established and hitherto reliable poll methodology itself.

In my opinion, far too many of them only looked at data that was favorable to Clinton, data which confirmed their own bias and prejudices, and ignored or disputed any information that suggested a Clinton victory was far from a sure thing. They ignored Trump's populist message that clearly resonated with the large crowds he continued to draw at his public appearances. In short, they believed their own bullshit.

The question now remains, are any of these people going to change course and reflect on why they missed the outcome of this election so egregiously, or are they just going to continue to double down, and point the finger at anyone but the Democratic Party, the media, the Clinton campaign, and of course, at themselves and their own role in creating the false perception that there was no way in hell a rude, crude, and and socially unacceptable degenerate like Donald Trump could possibly prevail? The current signs, unfortunately, are not good. And that is a shame, because, as Sanders' proved this year, there is an enthusiastic and growing number of people in our country to whom a true progressive agenda is very appealing, people who turned out in massive numbers to hear him speak before the DNC emasculated him.

People are hungry for authentic politicians, people such as Bernie Sanders, who have a record of fighting for the rights of everyone who suffers under the oppression of the pro-austerity, neo-liberal policies favored by the establishments of both major parties. Neo-liberal policies that benefit only wealthy elites and transnational corporations at the expense of the middle class and the poor, regardless of race, religion, sexual orientation or any other category into which they wish to place us. Many of the people in those "flyover states" who turned to Trump, the faux populist and demagogue, did so out of desperation. They would have voted for Sanders had they been given given the chance.

It is precisely because the Democratic Party's establishment made certain that Sanders would not be given an equal chance to win the nomination, and actively worked against his campaign, using all means fair and foul to ensure Hillary would be selected as its the nominee, that Trump won. Making her their candidate directly led to the situation in which we now find ourselves: a federal government completely controlled by the one party, the GOP, that has always attracted and welcomed into its ranks, racists, sexists, white supremacists and bigots of every stripe.

Perhaps the "bubble people" will come to their senses, and realize it wasn't our backing of the only real progressive in the race that spoiled Hillary's victory. We are not responsible for her multiple failures on the campaign trail that ended up giving power to a man they consider a "fascist" and "Nazi". Their concern for the lives of vulnerable populations (the very people they so blithely incorporate into their so-called "multicultural coalition") would have been better served had they supported Sanders from the beginning.

Instead they chose to willfully turn a blind eye to Clinton's numerous flaws and misdeeds. They actively supported and propped up one of the most deceitful, disliked, corrupt and distrusted politicians to have ever been nominated by any party in our Nation's history. That is their cross to bear, not ours. The sooner they come to terms with their own role in this disaster, the better. If not, and if they support the rotted husk of the Democratic Party as it is presently constituted, they will find themselves on the wrong side of history, to the detriment of all who dream of a better, more just and more sustainable world.

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Cant Stop the Macedonian Signal's picture

I believe Steven compiled a great deal of it.

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"More for Gore or the son of a drug lord--None of the above, fuck it, cut the cord."
--Zack de la Rocha

"I tell you I'll have nothing to do with the place...The roof of that hall is made of bones."
-- Fiver

http://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2016/11/11/13597452/voter-suppres...

Voter suppression didn’t cost Hillary Clinton the election
Voter suppression might explain Clinton’s loss in Wisconsin — but not Florida, Michigan, or Pennsylvania.

According to this view, Republicans passed a slew of new voting restrictions in several key swing states: North Carolina, Wisconsin, and so on. Along the way, courts and studies found — and some Republicans even admitted — that these restrictions would have a disproportionate impact on minority Americans who tend to vote Democrat. So isn’t that exactly what happened — minority voters weren’t able to get to the ballot box, costing Clinton just enough votes that she lost?

When you look at the actual election results, however, the answer is almost certainly no. For one, Clinton lost in must-win states that had no new voting restrictions. And she lost by such big margins in a few states with new voting restrictions that it’s unlikely that voter suppression alone can explain the results.

Voting restrictions are deplorable even if they don’t cost anyone an election. It shouldn’t be difficult for anyone to exercise their basic democratic right, and no one should be burdened by extra hurdles at the ballot box based on their race or political affiliation. One case of voter suppression is far too many.

But it wasn’t the reason Clinton lost.

Clinton lost in states that didn’t pass new voting restrictions
...
Clinton’s losses in states with new voting restrictions were too big for suppression to explain the results

---

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boriscleto's picture

Vox Media is an American multinational digital media company founded on August 1, 2002 by Jerome Armstrong, Tyler Bleszinsky and Markos Moulitsas and based in Washington, D.C. and New York City.[2] It currently runs eight editorial brands: SB Nation, The Verge, Polygon, Curbed, Eater, Racked, Vox and Recode. Vox's brands are built on Chorus, its proprietary content management system.[4]

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" In the beginning, the universe was created. This has made a lot of people very angry, and is generally considered to have been a bad move. -- Douglas Adams, The Hitch Hiker's Guide to the Galaxy "

On TOP everybody and everything is responsible for Hillary's defeat. The lack of voter suppression would imply it was Hillary's fault. I am not sure how Vox is run. Does Kos have editorial control over every article? Seems strange he would let his one get through actually putting responsibility on Clinton.

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elenacarlena's picture

DKos. I'm not even sure he exercises editorial control over his paid writers, LOL! Some of them could use an editor.

He will, of course, do his time outing or banning or diary deleting thing if the community flags sufficiently to get the attention of him or his moderators. But we just post whatever we want to post, and let the chips fall where they may.

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riverlover's picture

and I am still NR since ?April? I was baad. Who cares?

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Hey! my dear friends or soon-to-be's, JtC could use the donations to keep this site functioning for those of us who can still see the life preserver or flotsam in the water.

elenacarlena's picture

You evil person, you. I'm pretty sure if you wanted to take it to moderation at the Help Desk, after all this time and the pie fights gone by, they'd give you your ratings abilities back. Or you can always respond to a comment you like with a +1. Or one you don't with a -1, for that matter, although I don't recommend it. Well, at least you can still post if you have a burning desire.

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so you can frenchkiss Marcos butthole,Im sure he will let you come back to just fart in your face again

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DW

TheOtherMaven's picture

The first, while obnoxious, is permitted here - the second is not.

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There is no justice. There can be no peace.

elenacarlena's picture

I even chuckled, actually.

I think it's an individual decision whether or not to use the site. Just giving RL the options as I know them.

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riverlover's picture

at most once a week. I was verbally attacked, but Stayed Cool.

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Just showing how VILE it is to go hat in hand BEGGING that WORTHLESS FUCK MARKOS permission to be humiliated on his website,to beg to come back after being censored is the biggest act of butt smootching I can imagine,Sorry to offend

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DW

Markos sold his stake in Vox last year or the year before and disclosed he made quite a bit of money from it, so much so that he didn't need the GOS anymore to make a living, which is obvious from the way he's been running it since then.

Edit: This was a response to boriscleto. I can't tell if I replied to the right comment or not.

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elenacarlena's picture

I can't imagine running it into the ground on purpose or even not caring about it, unless he was paid by Clinton to run it the way he did, more than the money he would have made if he'd run it properly.

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http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2015/12/21/1461170/-I-was-a-lucky-one-achieving-the-American-Dream

We need to build an America where more people can achieve it based on the work they do, not the luck of the moment. That’s my job, and will continue to be my job.

Sounds like make America great again. lol

From neo-this to neo-that, wish I was like Dalai Lama: I have 'no worries' about Trump's election.

Peace

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Carol Joy's picture

Election Integrity issues, circa 2004, I will say three things about this commentary:

One - It is true that the Republicans suppress the ability of voters to vote. They have mastered the techniques. Gerrymandering, also making sure there are inadequate polling places, and purging lists. But all the top big shots on both sides of the aisle also know that electronic voting machinery is "flippable." So in Republican held areas, the "R"s flip the vote.
And vice versa.

Two: I sincerely feel badly for anyone anywhere who is denied the ability to vote, or who does vote but then their vote is electronically flipped.

Three: However I have no sympathy for Hillary or any of the top hot shots in the DNC. They were told in 2004 about the situation described in my "One" above. And were totally, adamantly indifferent.

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Believing in the improbable can make your life a miracle.

I remember during the 2000 Florida re-count that democrats blamed the Supreme Court, voter suppression, and the way FL voting was being handled. And rightly so. Then suddenly, it wasn't the Supreme Court nor voter suppression but Nader was at fault. I remember also people doing statistically analysis of results and what came out of voting machines and some big problems. It looked like we were on the way to honest voting, and then nada. No no Nader. Like the dem party leadership lost or probably never had much interest even after it looked like Kerry was robbed in Ohio. And now Stein.

When gop voter suppression was exposed, it was like it was a surprise to democrats.

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as I continually put it...we may disagree on the specifics, Steven D (I haven't read much of the wikileaks stuff but I did read the Goldman Sachs transcripts), but it was the same type of stuff with the Clintons that I was sick of in the 1990's.

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riverlover's picture

at Wikileaks. To glimpse what we missed out on.

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Roy Blakeley's picture

More knowledgeable people can correct me if I am wrong, but I believe there is a fundamental problem with many polls in that they start off by assuming that certain groups will make up a particular proportion of voters, based on recent elections. Thus, they assume that white low and middle income people will make up 40% of the electorate, for example. There is more fine structure to the demographics than that, obviously, but the basic notion is that they do not get a random sampling in their polls because some groups are more likely to answer phones, etc. so they need to make corrections. They then adjust their poll numbers based on turnout assumptions from previous elections. If a particular group shows up at the polls in greater numbers than their model predicts, the poll is off. This relates to the fact that for the past 25 years Democratic Party candidates and consultants have failed to come to grips with voter enthusiasm. They try to ensure turnout by doing things like microtargeting, but it has not worked worth a damn in my, admittedly limited, experience. The unions that once reliably turned out voters have been decimated and remaining union members see little reason to vote for Hillary Clinton and her ilk. This is a long-winded attempt to state something that is obvious to everyone except, apparently, Democratic Party functionaries. If you want voters to come out and vote for you, you have to give them a reason to be enthusiastic about electing you. To borrow a quote from The Revelation of St. John the Devine, "But since you are like lukewarm water, neither hot nor cold, I will spit you out of my mouth!"

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jwa13's picture

I live by statistics (a hydrologist -- read: "scientist" -- who relies upon "past performance" to predict future conditions), but I believe the overall explanation for the wildly erroneous polling results to be much simpler:

Respondents lied (or simply refused to speak with pollsters).

By&large, the people who voted for Trump (the "deplorables" and dispossessed) DO NOT TRUST The System (because they feel -- generally, with good reason, that they have been screwed by The System), and voted for Trump and his program for exactly that reason -- to deliver to the "elite" a poke in the eye with a sharp stick. For the most part, they view pollsters as minions for the despised "elite" -- why should they respond truthfully to anything these bastards want to know?

For the record, I feel the same way -- I was not polled during this election cycle, but if I had been, I also would have lied roundly and gleefully --

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When Cicero had finished speaking, the people said “How well he spoke”.
When Demosthenes had finished speaking, the people said “Let us march”.

TheOtherMaven's picture

If I got one, I hung up on them. My vote is MY business, and no stupid pollster deserves to know what it is or to have a chance to persuade me.

I also hung up on ALL political robocalls - and we got a lot of them too.

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There is no justice. There can be no peace.

Sandino's picture

was a turnout model which ignored a demoralized base, an activist wing that was actively shunned, and unprecedented unfavorables on the part of both candidates. This is a 'must read' that somehow got into the NYT:
Many in Milwaukee Neighborhood Didn’t Vote — and Don’t Regret It

Wisconsin, a state that Hillary Clinton had assumed she would win, historically boasts one of the nation’s highest rates of voter participation; this year’s 68.3 percent turnout was the fifth best among the 50 states. But by local standards, it was a disappointment, the lowest turnout in 16 years. And those no-shows were important. Mr. Trump won the state by just 27,000 voters.

Milwaukee’s lowest-income neighborhoods offer one explanation for the turnout figures. Of the city’s 15 council districts, the decline in turnout from 2012 to 2016 in the five poorest was consistently much greater than the drop seen in more prosperous areas — accounting for half of the overall decline in turnout citywide.

The biggest drop was here in District 15, a stretch of fading wooden homes, sandwich shops and fast-food restaurants that is 84 percent black. In this district, voter turnout declined by 19.5 percent from 2012 figures, according to Neil Albrecht, executive director of the City of Milwaukee Election Commission. It is home to some of Milwaukee’s poorest residents and, according to a 2016 documentary, “Milwaukee 53206,” has one of the nation’s highest per-capita incarceration rates.

At Upper Cutz, a bustling barbershop in a green-trimmed wooden house, talk of politics inevitably comes back to one man: Barack Obama. Mr. Obama’s elections infused many here with a feeling of connection to national politics they had never before experienced. But their lives have not gotten appreciably better, and sourness has set in.

“We went to the beach,” said Maanaan Sabir, 38, owner of the Juice Kitchen, a brightly painted shop a few blocks down West North Avenue, using a metaphor to describe the emotion after Mr. Obama’s election. “And then eight years happened.”

All four barbers had voted for Mr. Obama. But only two could muster the enthusiasm to vote this time. And even then, it was a sort of protest. One wrote in Mrs. Clinton’s Democratic opponent, Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont. The other wrote in himself.

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Oldest Son Of A Sailor's picture

I live in a small city in Connecticut... Population around 60K...
When I went to vote I didn't see 1 other voter from the time I pulled into the polling center parking lot, until I left again...

I've never seen that before in my entire life, even when I lived in a small town...

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"Do you realize the responsibility I carry?
I'm the only person standing between Richard Nixon and the White House."

~John F. Kennedy~
Economic: -9.13, Social: -7.28,
Shahryar's picture

the best pollsters adjust their voter model as they get responses to other questions. There's a lot of subjectivity involved. "Who do I think will turn out to vote?" Get it right and you look smart. Get it wrong and you hope people forget by 2018 so you can get more work.

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The Huffpost really went after Nate Silver for showing a tight race with Trump even winning I believe. Huffpost even threw under the bus the most known and believed pollsters in democratic-land. Man, Nate Silver must be enjoying a can of wup-your-ass beer. And I imagine a lot less sympathetic to the democratic party.

Overall, the beliefs and campaign tactics that lead to Clinton's defeat, and all the down-ballot candidates, are being doubled down on by the Clintonistas, the DNC bureaucracy, and rich donors.

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Oldest Son Of A Sailor's picture

Under the bus as well...

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"Do you realize the responsibility I carry?
I'm the only person standing between Richard Nixon and the White House."

~John F. Kennedy~
Economic: -9.13, Social: -7.28,
darkmatter's picture

a couple days before the election, I made a rare visit over to that place, and they had a banner up on the top proclaiming Hillary with a 96% chance of victory or something like that. Astonishing arrogance and delusional thinking. Remember how the Bernie supporters were all about rainbows and unicorns? Turns out that was Clintonian projection all along!

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Anja Geitz's picture

From this election were the comments over there on the live election blog when the unthinkable happened. Trump won. Hill lost.

The schadenfreude was delicious.

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There is always Music amongst the trees in the Garden, but our hearts must be very quiet to hear it. ~ Minnie Aumonier

Oldest Son Of A Sailor's picture

Screen Shot 2016-11-09 at 3.33.49 AM_0.png

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"Do you realize the responsibility I carry?
I'm the only person standing between Richard Nixon and the White House."

~John F. Kennedy~
Economic: -9.13, Social: -7.28,
reflectionsv37's picture

"I never saw this coming!" He's a real mental genius! Once he banished all the truth tellers he only lived in his own little bubble. I wonder what he'll have to say once he gets the nerve to start posting again. He's been strangely quiet. I suspect it will take more time before he's ready to suffer anymore humiliation.

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“Our enemies are innovative and resourceful, and so are we. They never stop thinking about new ways to harm our country and our people, and neither do we.”
George W. Bush

featheredsprite's picture

Then one day [after the Bernie campaign came to a halt] I stopped what I was doing and took at good look at the people at his rallys.

The audience was filled with folks showing all the physical signs of a lifetime of being overworked, underpaid, contantly disappointed, and looked down upon. Then I realized that a lot of his supporters were not evil or nuts, they were just in pain. And I thought about how many people in the US looked just like that.

And I knew that Trump was going to win.

Hillary had NOTHING to offer them. Trump was at least making promises to give them some relief. So they voted for him.

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Life is strong. I'm weak, but Life is strong.

He had links to stories about all the big rallies for Trump. I saw next to nothing, well actually nothing about them in the mass media. So also with Bernie's rallies at the time of the primaries It turns out via Wikileaks that the Hillary campaign had various tactics to suppress the fact that she was getting next to nobody at her rallies. People were going to those rallies even in the face of very stiff counter demonstrations outside the rallies. While Drudge links to enough questionable sites, alot of his links were not to right wing nutjobs.

I posed the question in another diary what will the democrats do if Trump actually comes through with some of his populist policies. In a video just out yesterday, he said on first day he would walk out of TPP. It was his first priority. Are Hillary democrats in knee jerk fashion going to oppose Trump on TPP?

As you say "Hillary had NOTHING to offer them." And it looks like the democratic party still won't have anything except it seems to keep pushing same buttons Clinton did, and which lost the election. Wikileaks counted which subjects were the most talked about in the debates, and it was Putin/Russia. Appears people in WI, Ohio, etc didn't fear Putin nor think it important. But it looks like Putin will be the dems version of Benghazi, Benghazi, Benghazi!

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Carol Joy's picture

Hill delegates at the convention their opinion of the TPP, they did not know what the TPP was.

Yet for months, all we have heard is how dumb Trump supporters are.

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Believing in the improbable can make your life a miracle.

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Pricknick's picture

If you want more evidence of premature elation over Clinton and the Democratic Party's prospects

I swear to dog it said "premature ejaculation" when I first read it.
Now, I realize how prophetic it would be that way.
We seen it coming.

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Regardless of the path in life I chose, I realize it's always forward, never straight.

harrybothered's picture

And then I read your experience.

Maybe we just have dirty minds.
Wink

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"The presence of those seeking the truth is infinitely to be preferred to those who think they've found it."
Terry Pratchett, Monstrous Regiment

Remember when the Clinton campaign was holding those megabucks Hollywood fundraisers for the benefit of state campaigns? I recall serious talk about Texas and Georgia being in play, only of course we learned that money was run back to her and voter drives did not seem to materialize. I think it was just the belief in the "received wisdom" that demographics would magically translate to turnout.

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After his fund raiser for Clinton got bunches of shit (love the site of Sander supporters throwing dollar bills at the limos going to the fund raiser), Clooney defended the extravagant fund raiser by saying big money was needed to counter big money, and all the money he raised would go to down ballot candidates. Given how we found out how money was funneled back the Clinton campaign, I would doubt if any of the money Clooney raised went to down ballot candidate. More likely it was used against Sanders at that point in the primaries.

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Bob In Portland's picture

And yet, most of them still don't get it. Over at Balloon Juice this a.m. and the usual suspects there were whining about some Trump spokesperson. I looked through the comments to see if anyone finally realized that they had isolated themselves in their little bubble and that's why they're in shock. No.

However, there was a comment that Hillary shouldn't have conceded so soon.

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conceding. it fallaciously carries with it the presumption that it is up to the candidates to decide whether the election is over, and if so, who won. it is not. a concession means nothing, as far as the law is concerned. the state secretaries of state will certify their ballot counts without regard to who has or has not conceded.

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The earth is a multibillion-year-old sphere.
The Nazis killed millions of Jews.
On 9/11/01 a Boeing 757 (AA77) flew into the Pentagon.
AGCC is happening.
If you cannot accept these facts, I cannot fake an interest in any of your opinions.

Bob In Portland's picture

But as long as concessions are part of the ceremony Clinton could wait until February and she still isn't winning.

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of people who should know better don't seem to get -- if Donald Trump "conceded" and withdrew from the election at any point between when it was too late to remove him from the ballot, through to the completed vote in the Electoral College, it wouldn't mean that Hillary wins. It isn't up to Donald Trump to decide. His concession wouldn't make Hillary the winner -- it wouldn't even make him the loser. The Electoral College would be free -- and probably correct -- to elect him anyway, and leave him to refuse to take the oath of office. At which point, I don't know what the hell would happen, but I do know that what would not happen would be that anyone with any knowledge of the Constitution would assert that Hillary becomes President by forfeit.

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The earth is a multibillion-year-old sphere.
The Nazis killed millions of Jews.
On 9/11/01 a Boeing 757 (AA77) flew into the Pentagon.
AGCC is happening.
If you cannot accept these facts, I cannot fake an interest in any of your opinions.

Shigeru's picture

were in trouble in January, when most of the balloons were about how evil Trump was, but nothing positive or of value about the Klintons.

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Bob In Portland's picture

Help America Vote Act.

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Bob In Portland's picture

Back in 2008 they were Obama Boys:

http://www.salon.com/2008/04/14/obama_supporters/

The Clinton Machine has been using racism and identity politics for awhile. That linked story is from April 2008.

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I lived in Indiana in 2008 and remember seeing t-shirts with a "Bros before Hos" meme and saw some of that online. It wasn't large. I really can't point to anything like that from this election. There certainly was sexism, but nothing that blatant.

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darkmatter's picture

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snoopydawg's picture

I needed that.
Smile

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There were problems with running a campaign of Joy while committing a genocide? Who could have guessed?

Harris is unburdened of speaking going forward.

Cant Stop the Macedonian Signal's picture

She, her campaign, the DNC, and the corporate media (minus Fox) gave us Trump. End of sentence.

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"More for Gore or the son of a drug lord--None of the above, fuck it, cut the cord."
--Zack de la Rocha

"I tell you I'll have nothing to do with the place...The roof of that hall is made of bones."
-- Fiver

Carol Joy's picture

Just about any negative expression.

Hillary + lying
Hillary + deception
Hillary + traitor

And you will see more than three quarter of a million matches.

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Believing in the improbable can make your life a miracle.

Oldest Son Of A Sailor's picture

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"Do you realize the responsibility I carry?
I'm the only person standing between Richard Nixon and the White House."

~John F. Kennedy~
Economic: -9.13, Social: -7.28,
snoopydawg's picture

I think if he had even tried to help Main Streeters then people might have believed in Hillary's promises a tad more.
But his legacy is going to be that he let the republicans 'block' any decent legislation he wanted to pass, but it was just theater.
He didn't try to pass any during the first two years that the democrats had the majorities regardless of the blue dogs. If he really wanted something to pass there were many things he could have done to lean on them.
The democrats letting Lieberman keep his cabinet posts after he campaigned for McCain should have gotten him kicked off them.
Plus he wasted 6 months passing the POS ACA, had already made deals with the insurance and pharmaceutical companies while the Dems were letting the GOP water down the bill because they wanted their votes even though they had told them that they wouldn't vote for it.
Then gave it to Baucus knowing that Fowler from WellPoint was helping write it.
Then he watched as millions of people lost their homes even though he knew that the banks were not working with them in good faith and doing robo signings.
He didn't even try to prosecute any bank CEOs and didn't place any restrictions on them to make sure that they were helping people stay in their homes.
Putting the guy who had previously worked for a law firm that defended the banks in charge of prosecuting them, and then after DWS lost so many seats and states he didn't fire her.
Plus the many, many other things he did and didn't do to help us.
I'm preaching to the choir, but I like writing how he failed us.
It he had been for us instead of the banks, corporations, the MICC even just a little bit, Bernie wouldn't have tried to get someone to primary him or run against Hillary and tell us exactly how bad the DP was.
He took off the rest of the blinders and pulled back the curtain on the dp's corruption.
Then there's his warmongering and the deaths of millions in the Middle East.
He Could have been a great president, but he never planned on being one for us.
His job was to shut down the anti was movement which he did.
But on 1/20/2017 we will see it rise up against Trump.
Count on the diaries over at DK.

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There were problems with running a campaign of Joy while committing a genocide? Who could have guessed?

Harris is unburdened of speaking going forward.

gendjinn's picture

made the comment to me that Obama was only a Democrat because in Illinois a black man has no future in the Republican party. At the time I thought it was snark but it seems more like the unvarnished truth now. Reminds me of Jeremiah Wright's "He's only a politician!" comment in 08

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Bob In Portland's picture

America has a problem admitting the coup in 1963, what's the saying, you can figure out who rules you by who you can't criticize.

In any case, bear with me. If you held a coup in 1963 but you didn't want the people to know, you would have to continue the illusion of the two-party system. If you're familiar with post-war American intelligence history, the political drive for the CIA was mostly from conservative Republicans. Wall Street wanted the CIA. So how do you keep the illusion of a two-party system? You have to have people watching out for you in both parties. Nixon was in the bag, LBJ wanted to retire to his ranch. There were plenty of fascists, neo-fascists, corporatists in the Republican Party. They even were using fascists imported from Europe by the CIA to bolster right-wing ideology in ethnic communities (a precursor to "Reagan Democrats").

So the CIA's big problem was to start recruiting "center-right" Dems to push the Democratic Party to the right. It's hard to do that with all those pro-labor, peace-loving liberals in leadership positions. On the other hand, the CIA couldn't kill every left-of-center politician. (In Weimar Germany the Black Reichsfehr, a secret, armed reactionary group killed politicians from Communists like Rosa Luxemborg to center-right Catholic politicians.) Someone would catch on, eventually.

But the intelligence services had a huge reservoir of young people to recruit from. In the late sixties the CIA, FBI, army intelligence, local city police forces, were all infiltrating various left-wing movements: the anti-war movement, black power movement, feminist movement, social justice movement. Especially the anti-war movement. Hillary Clinton's metamorphosis from Goldwater Girl to neoliberal fits in nicely. In 1968 she went to both the Republican and Democratic national conventions. She began monitoring Black Panther trials in New Haven, then spent a summer with the law firm in Oakland that represented the Panthers. Perfect places to observe and report back to the FBI (Cointelpro) or CIA. Or both. Her next big job was working on Democrats' legal team during Watergate, where she could report back to the CIA regarding what the Democrats knew about Nixon, and what they suspected about the CIA's involvement.

Meanwhile, Bill Clinton was an Arkansas Democrat of the Fulbright persuasion. He was trying to get out of the draft. The book PARTNERS IN POWER says that Bill's classmates in Britain believed he was CIA. And if in fact he was, he was in an ideal place to monitor the anti-Vietnam movement in Europe. While right-wing Republicans wanted to attack him for his trips behind the Iron Curtain, consider that he in fact may have been working in order to keep his student deferment.

When Bill Clinton became governor of Arkansas the CIA was dumping duffel bags of cocaine at Mena, Arkansas. One of the pilots of the operation was Barry Seal, who claimed to have Vice President Bush's direct office phone number and a letter from Bill Clinton, a "get out of jail free" letter in case he was arrested. (Asa Hutchinson, who would become Dubya's first drug czar, was the incurious federal prosecutor for Mena back in those days.)

If you examine what the Clintons did, it was pretty evident that they were leading the Democrats rightward, into corporatist territory. In essence, the Clintons were the handmaidens for the Deep State, moving the Party to the right.

Welcome to the 21st Century, where party politics have shifted so that no one represents the 99%.

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gendjinn's picture

A relative in the Irish civil service and a great uncle that worked for British MI in Aden, Zambia, Zimbabwe as they were exiting the empire have pulled back the curtain on enough incidents to help me realise that one needs to be somewhat cynical and conspiratorial. The challenge then becomes not falling too far down the rabbit hole, right? But it is so fricking deep!

One does not need to invoke a conspiracy theory of the deep state to make the conclusive argument that the Dems & Reps of the last 36 years are working for the same masters and accomplishing the same outcomes. Time for both to go. Looks like 2018 will be the year of the broom!

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Bob In Portland's picture

You're right. One does not have to invoke any grand conspiracy theory to explain US national politics over the last fifty years.

The problem is that the main suspect in killing JFK and overthrowing the government is the Deep State, with the CIA doing the dirty work. And the people who did the dirty work have a knack for digging rabbit holes. They always want doubt, like the fascists in Germany wanted people to doubt that they'd go that far.

Here is a quick explanation: Six weeks before the assassination someone impersonating Lee Harvey Oswald tried to contact both the Cuban consulate and the Soviet embassy in Mexico City. If you Google "fake Oswald Mexico City" you come up with pictures of a balding, heavy-set man in his thirties who looks nothing like Oswald. He was captured on film by CIA surveillance cameras at the two embassies. He also was recorded by CIA wiretaps of the two embassies. Clearly, he wasn't Oswald. He was someone who had gotten a fake passport in Oswald's name, went to Mexico City and impersonated Oswald, presumably to connect the USSR and Cuba to the upcoming assassination.

No one spends good money to travel to a foreign country and pretend to be a "nobody" in order to lay down a myth of Oswald being an assassin for the Communists. That is, nobody without a political agenda. Now, out of everyone in the world, who would be creating a legend of Oswald the Assassin six weeks PRIOR to the assassination? Hint: people who knew that there would be an assassination and wanted to pin it on the patsy Oswald.

This is no rabbit hole. This is the proof that JFK was murdered in a coup.

So, go back to my "conspiracy theory". If you overthrow a government you have to make plans for the aftermath. The CIA did it in the Congo, they did it in Iran, they did it in Guatemala, they did it in Vietnam. They did it after Dallas.

fake Oswald Mexico City.jpg

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gendjinn's picture

The David Talbot book reference was meant to convey that.

Here's my problem - the only viable response is armed revolution and I've seen the costs of that growing up just south of the Troubles. That and really no one wants to hear you lay out the evidence that JFK was murdered by Dulles, that it was a coup and we haven't had a govt since. They really don't.

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Cant Stop the Macedonian Signal's picture

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"More for Gore or the son of a drug lord--None of the above, fuck it, cut the cord."
--Zack de la Rocha

"I tell you I'll have nothing to do with the place...The roof of that hall is made of bones."
-- Fiver

gendjinn's picture

I think the way the entire media apparatus has ignored Talbot's research sends the message that this is an open secret. I remember people "joking" in DC in the late 90s that each new president is shown the assassination of JFK after inauguration and they fall into line on MIIC budgets.

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Shigeru's picture

1. The Obama factor - regardless of whether one believed that Obama was popular or not, he was polarizing and likely every one of his appearances did as much harm as good. To my millennial son and Obama supporter, his response this time was `meh.`
2. Clinton, as even Obama pointed out, avoided the vast bulk of the great unwashed whites. Only problem is that we vote. Her coalition as was Obama`s was broad but not deep and was without conviction.

On the methodological side, I believe the polls did not take into account two key trends late in the cycle. One was a classic regression of both Democrats and Republicans to their party and away from any 3rd party candidate. Stein`s support in particular was embarrassingly anemic, and Johnson`s like took more away from Trump. The other trend was the steady, if not big regression away from Clinton to Trump, which showed that on election day Clinton numbers would be less than expected. I spent 30 minutes 10 days before the election and created a Mongo DB from the 4 biggest polls, calculated a simple mean, and applied a trend to that result. It showed nationally a very slight popular vote win for Clinton, virtual tie in the electoral college, and no gains in Congress. I was still off, but nowhere near as much as the billionaire prognosticators, who have been off the mark since 2004. And my error was due more to inability to get enough detail at the state level to accurately count EV`s since I used others` polls.

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I would hire you, no problem. thx.

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Carol Joy's picture

Election Integrity expert, claims Hillary took half the votes from Jill Stein's column and added them to her own. When her supporters are saying that she won the popular vote, they ignore that reality. But it is an important part of the puzzle.

Anyone looking into polling data needs to get into Wikileaks' release of Podesta emails and to see which polling agencies were paid by Clinton campaign, or even created out of thin air, to come up with polls favoring her. And what unintended effects did her doing that have on the electorate? Those of us who have hated her to hell and back are certainly not going to change our vote to favor her just on account of being told in Sept that she is up by 11 points. But the soccer mom crowd who are trying to juggle their 40 hr a week job, the two kids and the 12 hours a week spent in commute traffic might decide to "forget abt it" if they are stressed on election day. Especially given that the last they heard, she is up by 11points.

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Believing in the improbable can make your life a miracle.

Big Al's picture

Do people here want the democratic party to be better next time or something? Are you lamenting these "mistakes" because they caused Clinton to lose? And what's with the Bernie fixation after he made it clear he was in it as a sheepdog? And who cares what the Clinton supporters think about others?
Who's going to take accountability for being fooled again?

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and good representatives in local offices. We need to create some sort of tool to facilitate that, but there are a few good Democrats, who have been a voice for the people, especially during Bernie's campaign. The Democratic party just needs to know that our votes will not be taken for granted anymore. I think it's partly up to the current leadership and whether or not they acknowledge that they need to step down.

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Beware the bullshit factories.

shaharazade's picture

It makes no difference. I am personally glad that people had had enough of the Democratic party and rejected the Mad Bomber. Why bother to reform the irredeemable Democratic side of the duopoly? What people think Chuck Schumer and Elisabeth Warren are going to take it over and fix it? lol. Even the local/state level Democratic pols are bent and work hard to push the anti-democratic globalizing economy and the freaking police 'security' state. As for the Hillbots why bother getting in a pissing match with them it's not only pointless but empowers their authoritarian brainwashed sick world view.

Who cares why Bernie sheepdoged for the Democrat's or why he did what he did. Why not build on the people in the movement he gave political voice to instead of getting veal penned once again. The movement was not Bernie's he just harnessed the growing resistance to the global oligarchical collectivists There are no good Democratic pols and empowering and supporting 'the good cops' among them is pathetic. Ask me people who saw this scam of an election for what is was shouldn't be trying to put this Humpty back together again. How many times do people intend to believe that some freaking pol or is going to save the day or reform this god awful dead as a door nail scam of a party. When any pol starts talking reform you just know your in for another screw. Let it go it a dead party.

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I registered as a dem for the first time to vote for the Bern and make sure my vote counted(still not sure) and I'm a permanent vote by mail voter that did not receive a ge ballot so could not vote at all in the ge. Talk about fucked up?
I would have voted for Stein anyway, but the fact that I couldn't vote at all is more than slightly disturbing. I also wonder if any other Cali folk experienced the same situ.
Fuck it, her lost.

peace

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Ya got to be a Spirit, cain't be no Ghost. . .

Explain Bldg #7. . . still waiting. . .

If you’ve ever wondered whether you would have complied in 1930’s Germany,
Now you know. . .
sign at protest march

Wink's picture

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the little things you can do are more valuable than the giant things you can't! - @thanatokephaloides. On Twitter @wink1radio. (-2.1) All about building progressive media.

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