So what's happened to the enthusiasm gap?
According to The Hill, it's alive and well:
Many Dems aren’t enthusiastic about Clinton. Will it cost her?
They're claiming that at this rate, Clinton could, um, NOT BE INEVITABLE afterall:
The Democrat’s once-comfortable lead in the polls has tightened considerably. Democrats were startled on Tuesday by a new CNN/ORC poll that gave GOP nominee Donald Trump a 2-point lead nationally. The CNN poll also suggested that Clinton backers are less enthusiastic in their support for their candidate than are their Republican counterparts.
They tell us that the percent of backers who are Extremely Enthusiastic to Very Enthusiastic are:
Trump 58%
Clinton 46%
Those who are Not At All Enthusiastic:
Trump 11%
Clinton 21%
An extreme weakness for Hillary is with young voters. Trump has his troubles, as well.
“When you look at the negatives of both of these people, there is no enthusiasm except for people who dislike the other one more,” said Hank Sheinkopf, a Democratic strategist who has worked with Clinton but is not doing so in this campaign.
“The question is: How do you translate the dislike of the other one into turnout? Secretary Clinton’s job is to make Trump more unacceptable.”
So, the author of this piece thinks the difference may lie in whether the GOTV work being organized by Clinton will be enough to make the difference.
Comments
If Hillary's GOTV people don't do a better job than her
Get-People-to My-Rallies staff, she's a goner. Show me one picture of a large audience--not just the coerced stage sitters. Once she left Philly, her large crowds left too--and haven't come back.
So, you're arguing she really had ANY big crowds
In my recollection, there were very few, in fact I remember arguing at TOP about the enthusiasm gap and being told that Clinton DID NOT WANT large crowds. Too impersonal or something. I got an earful about the listening tour, I think...
In Philly, they had paid seat fillers once the roll call was complete.
'What we are left with is an agency mandated to ensure transparency and disclosure that is actually working to keep the public in the dark' - Ann M. Ravel, former FEC member
She had 5,000 for her kickoff
In Roosevelt park. But other than the convention, that's been it that I'm aware of.
It's so bad that republicans tweeting about #basketsOfDeplorables posted pictures comparing the size of their basket (trump rallies) to Hillary's basket (that baptist convention with an empty auditorium)
Hellery speech in Kansas City (on 9/8) was telling
It was for the National Baptist Convention. This is Hellery's AA base. If she can't get her base to come out, she's in deep dodo.
Donnie The #ShitHole Douchebag. Fake Friend to the Working Class. Real Asshole.
Somehow, they thought they could pummel and cow us
into voting for her. Best I can tell, that logic only makes sense (in what is still called a democracy) to a sociopathic mind.
'What we are left with is an agency mandated to ensure transparency and disclosure that is actually working to keep the public in the dark' - Ann M. Ravel, former FEC member
The old 'Who would you rather have a beer with?' Test
Trump won hands down.......... at our local bbq, despite none of us planning to vote for him.
The idea of sharing a beer with Hillary was just plain scary for most.
Yeah, stupid test I know.
Gëzuar!!
from a reasonably stable genius.
Perhaps stupid, but there's something to that
Most folks who answer questions about having a beer with someone are social enough drinkers, that they likely would have a drink with someone, anyone interesting.
I would hazard there may be a correlation (if someone tested for it) between the liking the idea of having a beer with a candidate and bothering to show up to vote for that person.
'What we are left with is an agency mandated to ensure transparency and disclosure that is actually working to keep the public in the dark' - Ann M. Ravel, former FEC member
Frankly, I'd rather have a beer with HM QEII
Hillary's stare would get to me.
Gëzuar!!
from a reasonably stable genius.
Not that it proves my point, but
I'm thinking you may also not be terribly enthusiastic to show up to vote for Hillary (I don't mean to out whether you will or won't vote for her, just saying that those who don't want a drink with her as also less likely to have sufficient enthusiasm to show up to vote for her).
'What we are left with is an agency mandated to ensure transparency and disclosure that is actually working to keep the public in the dark' - Ann M. Ravel, former FEC member
Granted
But there wasn't a lot of enthusiasm for HRC, regardless of the beer test.
Gëzuar!!
from a reasonably stable genius.
I won't vote for her but I'd love to have a beer with her
She would enjoy it a lot less as I have quite a lot to say to her.
yeah,
you start talking and she does this in her beer and you're outta there
When you have that beer ...
Speaking of QEII and the UK: maybe we could petition to return to colonial status until we can get our act together (like Rhodesia).
I would rather drink alone.
Or maybe hangout with one of the alcoholics at the bar.
Especially if she pours you one like this:
The current working assumption appears to be that our Shroedinger's Cat system is still alive. But what if we all suspect it's not, and the real problem is we just can't bring ourselves to open the box?
SEE?
I!!! DRINK!!! BEERS!!!
TOOO!!!!
GIANT ALL-CAPS SIG
Very Telling
See? The 99% aren't even going to get a proper pint!
Pretty much sums up...
her entire political career in one pic.
It also works for Bill: too much head.
The current working assumption appears to be that our Shroedinger's Cat system is still alive. But what if we all suspect it's not, and the real problem is we just can't bring ourselves to open the box?
You win the internet for the day
n/t
Wasn't that one of Winston's
Wasn't that one of Winston's complaints in Orwell's 1984? The inability to get a pint of beer since metric had been enforced, leaving one bar measurement too small and the other too large? (Haven't read it for years, I must admit, so somebody please correct me if I'm mistaken.)
Psychopathy is not a political position, whether labeled 'conservatism', 'centrism' or 'left'.
A tin labeled 'coffee' may be a can of worms or pathology identified by a lack of empathy/willingness to harm others to achieve personal desires.
I am no fan of either
I am no fan of either candidate... but if I had to sit with one of them I'd rather have a conversation with Clinton. I just think it would be far more interesting than anything that would come out of Trump
Go Bernie !!
Just bring your check book.
didn't the crown prince of Bahrain pay like $32M to get 5 minutes with her heinous?
I'd be terrified to have a beer with Her...
One wrong word uttered and I could be in line for an "Unfortunate Fatal Accident".
Odds of me uttering several more than one wrong words?
100%
"I used to vote Republican & Democrat, I also used to shit my pants. Eventually I got smart enough to stop doing both things." -Me
As I Pointed Out
in another recent thread, Clinton is polling 4 points behind Trump in Ohio, is even or 1 point behind trump in Florida, and is only 1 point ahead of Trump in Virginia. Those are not good numbers.
She's polling 5 points ahead of Trump in Pennsylvania (although that's down from 8 points ahead a month prior), and she's 4 points ahead of Trump in North Carolina.
But all-in-all it looks like a pretty even race right now. And things continue to tighten.
Clinton has pretty much blown away her convention bump at this point.
Just Did a Calculation
It seems to me that Trump has almost certainty of winning 244 electoral college votes (for comparison, in 2012 Romney won a total of 206). 270 are needed to win.
That doesn't include Virginia, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania, or Wisconsin, which are all within 5 points right now.
Yep. She's hit the "maybe not inevitable" point.
So Hillary Can Sweep In 2020
Right? It will definitely be Hillary's turn in four years.
"They'll say we're disturbing the peace, but there is no peace. What really bothers them is that we are disturbing the war." Howard Zinn
This is her *last chance*
She will definitely be too old (and probably too decrepit) in 2020 - she's borderline on both now. If she doesn't win this time, by hook or by crook (and you may be sure she's got a lot of crooks working to rig the election for her), she's toast.
There is no justice. There can be no peace.
I'm fairly sure that she may not survive to inauguration day
In fact, I'll bet Tim Kaine mortgaged his mansion to buy life insurance on her.
Just Did Another Calculation RE: North Carolina & Nevada
I'd bet $$ that Trump gets North Carolina (15 EVs) and Nevada (6 EVs). If you add 244 EVs + 21 EVs, that's 265 EVs. I'll be watching if Trump makes a lot of trips to Virginia, because Obama only got 51.16% there in 2012. Bernie Sanders would have been a more formidable candidate, but we know what happened there.
According to the latest poll, she's only ahead by 3 in my bluest
of solidly blue states, RI. If she loses here, it's going to be a blowout across the swing states. Numbers like these should be a real wakeup call for the clueless establishment Democrats.
I'd like to see a poll of the anti-enthusiasm gap.
If this election is about anything, it's about how motivated the candidate's supporters are about voting AGAINST their opponent.
To Hillary supporters: How enthusiastic are you to vote against Trump?
To Trump supporters: How enthusiastic are you to vote against Hillary?
Despite Hillary's constant pearl clutching about The Scary Donald, my guess is she's losing the anti-enthusiasm gap by even more than she is the enthusiasm gap.
Goopers HATE her and always have. And Independents aren't fond either. In fact, Hillary is a big reason there are so many independents in the first place.
Dems need to face it. For all of The Donald's buffoonery, he just doesn't inspire the same visceral reaction from his opponents as Hillary does. Not even close.
The current working assumption appears to be that our Shroedinger's Cat system is still alive. But what if we all suspect it's not, and the real problem is we just can't bring ourselves to open the box?
I've been making a version of this argument for the past year
The folks who hate her (and there are a LOT of them) hate her with every fiber in their beings.
There are plenty of folks who find Trump vile, but you're right, it's not the same.
'What we are left with is an agency mandated to ensure transparency and disclosure that is actually working to keep the public in the dark' - Ann M. Ravel, former FEC member
The one candidate...
who can motivate the Republicans to vote this year is not Trump.
It's Hillary.
The current working assumption appears to be that our Shroedinger's Cat system is still alive. But what if we all suspect it's not, and the real problem is we just can't bring ourselves to open the box?
No one lights a fire under the right like she does
Many of them hold their noses to vote for him - what makes them RUN not walk to the polls to do so is her. THIS is why the enthusiasm gap is lethal to Dems.
'What we are left with is an agency mandated to ensure transparency and disclosure that is actually working to keep the public in the dark' - Ann M. Ravel, former FEC member
Well, Trump hasn't yet had,
Well, Trump hasn't yet had, and taken, the opportunity to cause the sort of horrendous death, damage and destruction-for-profit that Hillary did as Secret-ary of Mistakes-for-Highstakes...
Vote against evil - not for it. Vote (if Bernie doesn't pull off a miracle) non-corporate Green.
Psychopathy is not a political position, whether labeled 'conservatism', 'centrism' or 'left'.
A tin labeled 'coffee' may be a can of worms or pathology identified by a lack of empathy/willingness to harm others to achieve personal desires.
The Democratic Party DIDN'T WANT any enthusiasm
They wanted to shutdown Bernie Sanders progressive campaign, and wanted to shutdown all the associated grassroots enthusiasm going on. They even cheated to produce exactly this result.
So the Democratic Party (and organizations like DKos) got exactly what they wanted all along: a corrupt, uninspiring, disliked, distrusted, right-wing status-quo hack who engenders no enthusiasm whatsoever.
No Hope, No Change 2016
They've substituted GUILT for enthusiasm
by accusing folks of being responsible for Trump. Only so many humans respond to being played like this - I don't think it will be a sufficient number to produce the outcome they desire.
'What we are left with is an agency mandated to ensure transparency and disclosure that is actually working to keep the public in the dark' - Ann M. Ravel, former FEC member
That's exactly correct
There was an organized assault on liberals from the get go. Their intention was not to bridge the gaps and build trust with the left. Their intention was to break the left's communities with an organized psyops campaign. They've got exactly the result they were looking for.
Yep, Bernie was the most
Yep, Bernie was the most likely to beat Trump, and despite all the numbers showing this, they decided to go with the pick by the corporatocracy and shove HRC down our throats as they sidelined Bernie. Everything pointed to Bernie
Demexit 2016 will happen, Jill was my back up if Bernie fell in any way shape or form.
She is a Historic choice because she is the first female Candidate by the Dems.....Bernie would have been the first Jewish candidate in History.
Information said Bernie was liked by the independent voters, Hillary not,,,,they ignored all of that
So yeah, she gets her little run, and they may make it happen as she is the top pick for the Oligarchy to string people along(Mn are they delusional!)
Jill, is a Female Presidential Candidate who also happens to be a doctor, and researcher and an activist, and as we know here, unlike Hillary is honest and not corrupted.
Jill not Hill 2016 for me!
So long, and thanks for all the fish
Me too.
Me too.
Go Bernie !!
Plus, Jill is also Jewish... n/t
'What we are left with is an agency mandated to ensure transparency and disclosure that is actually working to keep the public in the dark' - Ann M. Ravel, former FEC member
And the warrant they put out for Jill Stein
was such a steaming pile of crap. So she spray painted a protest message on the plow of a bulldozer. That paint will be gone completely within 5 mins the next time the dozer starts plowing dirt.
Hopefully it got her some press since the media doesn't want to admit she exists.
Donnie The #ShitHole Douchebag. Fake Friend to the Working Class. Real Asshole.
True there, perhaps a woman behaving "badly" deserves a note
She is ignored 10X more than Bernie was, early on.
Hey! my dear friends or soon-to-be's, JtC could use the donations to keep this site functioning for those of us who can still see the life preserver or flotsam in the water.
Since this just came across my email feed
Predictwise:
Clinton: 73%
Trump: 27%
linkage
A lot of wanderers in the U.S. political desert recognize that all the duopoly has to offer is a choice of mirages. Come, let us trudge towards empty expanse of sand #1, littered with the bleached bones of Deaniacs and Hope and Changers.
-- lotlizard
Isn't there a point where the
"fear the opponent" meme no longer works because it is used on both sides? I mean, really, what does Hill have going for her other than that fear? And doesn't Trump have the same problem? I see the frickin' alarm bells going off and then the cheering - "Oh yeah we may take over congress" spouts the dems. And then the alarms go off again.
And over and over again crickets when it comes to what the people are actually afraid of on Hillary's side. Trump has more talking points for his sheeple - trade, jobs, them damn people taking YOUR job!
Oh well. Empires are not supposed to last long anyway.
glitterscale