Krugman Piece Demostrates that Thomas Frank Is Correct

What was The Real Potential Disaster of 2016?

This is the real potential disaster of 2016: That legitimate economic discontent is going to be dismissed as bigotry and xenophobia for years to come.

Disclaimer: I do not support Mr. Trump, and I find his racism disgusting. HOWEVER, to only focus on a racist appeal to the American public ignores the "legitimate economic discontent" referenced in the above statement.

Here's evidence that Frank's assessment is playing out:

Huffington Post 8/16/16:

Paul Krugman: Racism, Not Economic Anxiety, Drives Trump Voters

Subtitle: “Racial antagonism is a good indicator of who’s a Trump supporter.”

“Economic anxiety is not a very good predictor of who’s a Trump supporter,” Krugman said during an interview on Bloomberg TV. “Racial antagonism is a good indicator of who’s a Trump supporter.”

It goes on:

Trump has pledged to dismantle international trade agreements and impose huge tariffs on imports from Mexico and China, potentially sparking a trade war. Combined with his promise to deport all 11 million undocumented migrants and build an expensive and dubiously-effective wall along the U.S.-Mexico border, Trump’s economic policies could throw the country into the longest recession since the Great Depression, according to a June report from economists at Moody’s Analytics.

“The idea that this is what it’s about, that his China bashing and his trade stuff is really behind the movement [is false],” Krugman said. “I think what’s really happening is all these subterranean impulses driving the Republican vote for decades are just coming to the surface.”

ALL pieces mentioning Donald Trump on Huffington Post come with this statement:

Editor’s note: Donald Trump regularly incites political violence and is a serial liar, rampant xenophobe, racist, misogynist and birther who has repeatedly pledged to ban all Muslims — 1.6 billion members of an entire religion — from entering the U.S.

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Alligator Ed's picture

The right-wing racism-xenophobia is only one part of the story. I buy into that viewpoint--I am a Lefty after all (by the way last Saturday was international left-handers day). Krugman only emphasizes one side of the picture in his condemnatory rhetoric. He omits from any apparent consideration the horrors to be inflicted upon us by ISDS.

Remember Brexit? Wasn't that long ago that the Smart People (mainly in the UK) harped on the same right-wing prejudice meme while completely ignoring what a large part of the population--those on the left--wanted. They wanted to be free of interference with national sovereignty = domestic decision making by and for the people. The EU has its own version of ISDS, though not as potentially horrible as ISDS. Most Brits wanted out--and out they went.

Well, it's true on the other side of the pond that many lefties want nothing to do with TPP which has absolutely nothing to do with racism and/or xenophobia.

From the linked Krugman article:

“Economic anxiety is not a very good predictor of who’s a Trump supporter,” Krugman said during an interview on Bloomberg TV. “Racial antagonism is a good indicator of who’s a Trump supporter.”

He is WRONG. There are plenty of racists flocking to Trump--I don't deny that. Krugman is in the rarefied bubble that the "Remain" Brexit backers were. Economic anxiety is a good indication of why some people are perhaps grudgingly attracted to Trump. Most people know the Hillary's "opposition" is bogus--as is everything she says. When "pundits", even Nobel Prize winning ones say such obviously half-truths, they lose credibility. Also losing credibility is the Nobel Foundation for bestowing the Peace Prize on war-mongering Obama.

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k9disc's picture

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IFGIRPAWcSM

This is a fairly new concept in dog training.

A dog is mildly afraid of people with hats, children, and the lone stranger.

We're hanging out on the path in the park talking to a guy in a baseball hat. I'm reinforcing my dog to ensure that this behavioral challenge goes well... it's fine, my dog is cool.

Some children are playing in the jungle gym 50 feet away, well outside my dog's danger zone for kids.

A woman approaches us on the path. My dog loves women. I pay the dog to keep him engaged with me. He takes the cookie, and "out of the blue" lunges at the woman with a teeth snapping reactive response.

Any one of these triggers, by itself, is easy for my dog to handle, but when combined, the dog goes over threshold and does something "completely out of character".

Not understanding that triggers for reactive and aggressive behavior can stack like this is a recipe for failure when handling reactive dogs. Krugman, I am pretty sure, knows about trigger stacking, but it's not in his interest to acknowledge that it exists.

He's making a rationalization to protect the trust and belief in his ideology and training method. I've seen this a million times in dog training.

Trump support is a trigger stacked reactive response.

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“Tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat.” ~ Sun Tzu

Alligator Ed's picture

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that Peace Prize removed from his slimy little hands. He is now trying his best to get Brexit reversed.

As for the pundits, I think the entire mainstream media cares not a whit that they lose credibility. It's too bad they even had any to begin with, now they might as well close up shop and concentrate on their other "holdings".

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I think you mean the Nobel Prize for Economics.

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Democrats, we tried to warn you. How is that guilt and shame working out?

TheOtherMaven's picture

It lost all credibility when they bestowed it on Henry Fucking Kissinger, forty-plus years ago. If they have gotten it right at any time since then, it has been luck, accident and good PR - nothing more. Blum 3

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There is no justice. There can be no peace.

detroitmechworks's picture

Obama's killing people!

"SHUT UP! He's got a License to Bomb from the Nobel Committee!"

Oh, well that's cool then.

[video:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z9YAGpnvWzQ]

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I do not pretend I know what I do not know.

the reason Obama got the Peace Prize was "aspirational."

He even had the Nobel Committee hoping for change. Suckers! (Just as I was then.)

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Alligator Ed's picture

006, AKA BooHoO
003 AKA Medusa

Make sure they use the correct code when calling in drone strikes!

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supported his whole career explains little of importance so he's using his positions of power - Princeton & NY Times - to leverage himself into the incoming administration.

His Nobel prize was handed out by the Bank of Sweden which is not the entity that hands out the Nobels for science, literature and peace. It's a capitalist hanger-on.

Hey Paul! The concept you're afraid to address is imperialism.

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"The justness of individual land right is not justifiable to those to whom the land by right of first claim collectively belonged"

RantingRooster's picture

that won him the Nobel prize? He is, in essence, the fricking god father of Neoliberal economics, no?

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C99, my refuge from an insane world. #ForceTheVote

is at the service of the global neoliberal order, in my opinion.

I do think what is now called the global neoliberal system, or global monopoly capital, had its beginning right after WW2 and the term "multinational corporations" wasn't in the vocabulary until the early 1960s. It may have been Business Week that explained the phenomenon to its readers back then and used the term.

I agree with you though, Krugman is in the forefront of being a cheerleader for neoliberal economics while ignoring the obvious harm the system causes to the planet and its people.

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"The justness of individual land right is not justifiable to those to whom the land by right of first claim collectively belonged"

When Obama was first elected, Krugman was especially harsh on him for his right-wing turn in solving the Great Recession. Almost 8 years later, and for a lot of people, nothing has really changed. Now Hilary is running on basically the same platform. And Krugman has his lips sewed to her ass. So, who is the racist, Krugman?

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Democrats, we tried to warn you. How is that guilt and shame working out?

Hillbilly Dem's picture

is beyond my comprehension. "Three slices of cake please, Mssr. Krugman. One for me, one for RichM and one for Marie Antoinette."

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"Just call me Hillbilly Dem(exit)."
-H/T to Wavey Davey

I love German Chocolate.

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Democrats, we tried to warn you. How is that guilt and shame working out?

to close two schools and are forcing public school teachers to take $4000 per year cuts in pay. Retired miners are losing their minimal dental and eyeglass benefits and people are experiencing hardship across the board.

Boone county is shipping less than 1/3 the amount of coal that they did 15 years ago.

There is less than a 1% African American population so racism is not an issue. If Boone County were a foreign country we would say Big Capital came in, exploited the resources and the labor power of its people and exported the surplus value the resources and labor provided back to the home country, leaving the county poorer both in resources and citizen wealth.

Things are getting tough(er) in Boone County and other counties too I bet.

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"The justness of individual land right is not justifiable to those to whom the land by right of first claim collectively belonged"

Hillbilly Dem's picture

It's grim.

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"Just call me Hillbilly Dem(exit)."
-H/T to Wavey Davey

are not as mobile for a variety of reasons and, for several reasons, they are hurting.

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"The justness of individual land right is not justifiable to those to whom the land by right of first claim collectively belonged"

Hillbilly Dem's picture

We've been on the shit end of the extraction economy stick for a over a century. We've almost been bled out.

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"Just call me Hillbilly Dem(exit)."
-H/T to Wavey Davey

to exploit the natural resource and the local people. Instead of making investments in WV, in this case, profits are exported along with the coal.

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"The justness of individual land right is not justifiable to those to whom the land by right of first claim collectively belonged"

MsGrin's picture

I used to work with coal miners long distance, but went out to meet folks when there was a horrible flood (I wasn't strong enough to assist other than with acknowledgement for what they were doing). Grit and optimism and kindness was what I saw. Always had fun working with them.

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'What we are left with is an agency mandated to ensure transparency and disclosure that is actually working to keep the public in the dark' - Ann M. Ravel, former FEC member

Hawkfish's picture

Damn, I gotta remember that one!

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We can’t save the world by playing by the rules, because the rules have to be changed.
- Greta Thunberg

In the 'Human Centipede' sort of way.

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Democrats, we tried to warn you. How is that guilt and shame working out?

During the 2016 primary, Krugman wrote about Bernie Bros.

See a pattern?

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LapsedLawyer's picture

The Baseline Scenario has a couple of good posts on this as well.

He goes after another MSL (Mainstream Liberal) columnist, Matthew Yglesias, for the same take as Krugman, and takes him down a peg or two, to wit:

It’s understandable where this particularly highbrow putdown (also used by other twitterers) came from. Belittling the economic anxiety explanation has two understandable if not entirely pure motivations. One is the idea that chalking up Trump’s success to economic factors minimizes the central role of racism in his campaign; pointing out other reasons people might have for voting Trump distracts from the main issue or can even be seen (in an illogical sort of way) as an apology for Trump’s racism. The second motivation is that, since Hillary Clinton decided to run on the poorly worded “America is already great” theme, talking about economic insecurity only plays into the hands of the enemy; instead, we should just pretend everything is hunky-dory. (Yglesias does not share this second motivation.) But to many people, including me, it seems bizarre to insist that economic anxiety has nothing to do with Trump’s success, and much simpler to simply acknowledge that some of his voters are racists, some are worried about their economic prospects, and some are both.

[C]onsider the racial dimension. The fact that Trump has less support among nonwhites is explained by the fact that he is a Republican and a racist. Let’s say there is such a thing as economic anxiety, and it makes you more likely to be a Trump supporter. African-Americans are somewhat more likely to have economic anxiety, so more of them should vote Trump, all other things being equal. That’s Yglesias’s point. But other things aren’t equal; being African-American makes you much, much less likely to be a Trump supporter for other reasons (party, racism). Add those factors together, and voilà! Trump has better numbers among whites than among African-Americans. This is entirely consistent with the economic anxiety interpretation. (Conceptually, Yglesias is using race as an instrument for economic anxiety when the dependent variable is Trump support. This only works if race has no effect on Trump support other than via economic anxiety.)

[W]hile it is true that Trump runs better among whites than blacks, the question should be: relative to what? I don’t place a lot of faith in poll breakouts (low sample sizes), but it’s not clear he’s doing better among whites (or old people) than Mitt Romney did in 2012, and he may be doing considerably worse. That comparison is complicated by the fact that Barack Obama is himself African-American. But if anything, the poll data (which, again, I am not convinced by) tend to undermine the idea that this is an election about white privilege.

[T]here are many reasons to think that insecurity, economic or otherwise, makes people more receptive to racial appeals. See, for example, the relative support for Hitler among small businesspeople and industrial workers. (I believe that Godwin’s Law has been suspended until November 8, and perhaps—though hopefully not—beyond.)

The simple economic anxiety argument goes like this: Many Americans face real economic insecurity—stagnant real wages, higher health care costs, lower homeownership rate, “gig economy,” low workforce participation rate, etc. They think “the system”—whatever they mean by that—isn’t working for them. Hillary Clinton represents “the system” much more than Donald Trump, particularly since she’s claiming most of the legacy of Barack Obama. So they vote Trump. And to repeat: The reason white people support Trump at much higher rates than black people, even though white people are richer than black people, is that Trump is a racist. Is that so hard to understand?

A second column is about a "massive new study" that supposedly "debunks" the economic anxiety argument for Trump's support. As Kwak points out, the study itself is more circumspect than the article portrays it, to wit per Kwak's post:

Higher household income predicts a greater likelihood of Trump support overall and among whites, though not among white non-Hispanic Republicans. In other words, compared to all non-supporters or even other whites, Trump supporters earn more than non-supporters, conditional on these factors, but this is partly because Republicans, in general, earn higher incomes, and the difference is no longer significant when restricted to this group. …

On the other hand, workers in blue collar occupations (defined as production, construction, installation, maintenance, and repair, or transportation) are far more likely to support Trump, as are those with less education. … Since blue collar and less educated workers have faced greater economic distress in recent years, this provides some evidence that economic hardship and lower-socio- economic status boost Trump’s popularity.

Kwak then runs through the statistical problems with the study (starting with the fact that it is a probit regression wherein there are only two variables and the stats are then forced into one or the other variable, eliminating statistical overlap somewhat by fiat.

I won't quote his lengthy take on the statistical analysis -- suffice it to say I had to conjure up some dim remembrances of a statistics course I took back in college some 40 years ago -- but he summarizes it thusly:

The lesson is very simple, and it’s one that everyone knows before becoming a poll-reading pundit: People make decisions for different reasons. Something can be an important factor—here, it gives Trump a 20-point advantage among half the population—but get outweighed by some other important factor. Or, to put it in sophisticated language, you can’t use income as an instrument for economic anxiety, because income affects Trump support through other channels (in this example, because some rich people realize that Trump’s tax cuts will be good for them). This is really just the same mistake that Matt Yglesias made yesterday with race and age.

So there you have it. The economic anxiety argument still has legs and still fits best the underlying reason disparate groups of white folk support the Donald, and the racism and misogyny and xenophobia are expressions of that by way of scapegoating, and really as a means to continue to support the corrupt system Trump actually represents. I mean, it's easier to think the system could work for you if it weren't for those dirty Mexicans, those shiftless Negroes, and those uppity womenfolk, than to think about actually challenging and changing the workings and justifications for the system itself.

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"Our society is run by insane people for insane objectives. I think we're being run by maniacs for maniacal ends and I think I'm liable to be put away as insane for expressing that. That's what's insane about it."
-- John Lennon

The mainstream in 2016 consists of New Democrats, who, according to President Obama's own description of himself, are essentially 1980s moderate Republicans. "Democrat" and "liberal" are not synonyms. Most Democrats in office or in power in the party today are not liberals.

It's bad enough that neocons who put a (D) after their names are called neoliberals. Please let's not refer to center right Clinton disciples like Krugman as liberals or or the word "liberal" will have no meaning whatever. Clintonites are not liberals Hillary physically recoiled when Matthews referred to her as a liberal while he was interviewing her. If today's Democrats in office, in power in the party, in the media, etc. were liberals, Bernie Sanders, not Hillary Clinton would have received their endorsements and Hillary Clinton would have received their hatchet jobs. The reverse happened.

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Alphalop's picture

There really is no difference between Centrist "Reagan" Republicans of the '80's and the mainstream of the Democratic Party.

The slowly encroaching lunacy of the far right has driven all the moderate conservatives to the Democratic Party, not by accident, but by deliberate design of none other than the Clinton's.

They started on this path back when they formed the DLC, and they finally reached their destination this election cycle, so much so that they now feel they don't need progressives so no longer even pretend to play like they do as they have done in the past.

Their discussion though was flawed, as they based it on the times as they were then without factoring in the changes that would come to our informational distribution system.

To be honest, their plan would have worked flawlessly if it was for those damn pesky kids and their "Intertubes" messing things up.

If we didn't have the internet and access to information from outside the Corporate Media I honestly think most of us would believe in the "unity" picture they have been trying so hard to paint.

The death of both of these parties cannot come soon enough for me. I no longer have any faith that our government can be reclaimed and fixed by the people without first dismantling the majority of it entirely and starting from scratch.

Might that be worse? Possibly, but one thing IS certain, and that is many of us cannot be bled out for too much longer and still have any hope of recovering.

If they take me down I am gonna do my damndest to take as many of them with me as possible. (No, not in a psycho shooter way before people think I meant violently insane.)

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"I used to vote Republican & Democrat, I also used to shit my pants. Eventually I got smart enough to stop doing both things." -Me

even violent revolution. Cameras and listening devices everywhere, Homeland Security, NSA, militarized local and state police, and on and on.

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LapsedLawyer's picture

defined by the Mainstream Media (MSM), and it is the latter that also talks of "Establishment Republicans" as opposed to the Tea Party and Trump and his supporters. "Corporate" is probably the better word to describe all three, although when it comes to the Republicans, I think distinguishing between the Establishment and the upstart Tea Party and Trumpites is a fool's errand or even a disingenuous meme, as I believe the Republicans, since at least the McCarthy period, have been cultivating such a base, like a patient gardener looking to create a new rose hybrid, preserving the appropriate cuttings and cross-pollinating the offspring. "Wedge" issues has been their specialty for a very long time, but I think it really took off with Nixon and then Reagan.

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"Our society is run by insane people for insane objectives. I think we're being run by maniacs for maniacal ends and I think I'm liable to be put away as insane for expressing that. That's what's insane about it."
-- John Lennon

Basically they are saying that "we surveyed Trump supporters and they are complaining about immigrants and terrorists, so economic concerns isn't the cause of Trump's rise."

It leaves off the obvious alternative that right-wing conservatives are having legit anger over economic conditions being misdirected. Something we've seen for years.

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reason or logic, just another shill using the racist trope for something they don't like. As bad as Mr Obama claiming racism is the ONLY reason anyone would be against him getting Fast Track for the TPP. Shills, all of them.

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Only a fool lets someone else tell him who his enemy is. Assata Shakur

Seems he is still telling us the same thing.

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