Remember when Brexit meant the End-Of-The-World? Nevermind

Let's take a step back and recall how Donald Tusk, president of the European Council, warned that Brexit, “could be the beginning of the destruction of not only the EU but Western political civilization in its entirety”.
The barbarian hoards are at the gates!
Eurasia Group President Ian Bremmer said the Brexit is “the most significant political risk the world has experienced since the Cuban Missile Crisis.”
Nuclear holocaust!
David Cameron told us the consequences for ignoring their advice.

Protections for state pensions, the NHS and defence spending cannot be guaranteed if Britain leaves the EU.

Rivers of blood! Fire from the sky! Plagues of locust!
Do you get the picture?

But you foolish mortals didn't head our warnings. Now look at the destruction you have brought down upon your heads!

The Bank of England has yet to see evidence of a sharp economic slowing, even after U.K. businesses said the vote to leave the European Union had caught them by surprise.
While uncertainty rose “markedly” after the June 23 referendum, most firms did not expect to alter their investment or hiring plans in the near term, according to the BOE’s Agents’ summary of business conditions, based on information from a network of representatives across the U.K.

Hmmm. OK. Not exactly the destruction of Western political civilization in its entirety, but it's still coming! Our destruction train is just slow getting out of the station. Our neoliberal masters wouldn't lie to us!
Right?

IMF officials were labelled ‘clowns’ with ‘serious credibility problems’ last night after saying the British economy will grow faster than Germany and France in the next two years – only weeks after its doom-laden warnings about Brexit.
After saying that leaving the European Union could trigger a UK recession, the International Monetary Fund now expects the British economy to grow by 1.7 per cent this year and 1.3 per cent next year.

Seriously? We've gone from Brexit would be ‘pretty bad, to very, very bad’ for the UK to "the second-fastest growing economy in the Group of Seven industrialised nations this year" in just a couple weeks?
This is what "doom" looks like?

No, wait. This is what "doom" looks like.

U.K. stocks climbed Wednesday, sending the FTSE 100 to its highest close since August last year, aided by gains in insurers.
The benchmark is up almost 8% year to date.
“We’re seeing quite an incredible rise in equities right now. One of the better sectors out of the U.K. has been exporters, strictly playing off of the pound post-Brexit, leading to quite a good scenario in the short-term,” for such companies, said Adam Karrlsson-Willis, vice president of equity trading at INTL FCStone Financial.ftse.PNG

Whoa unto post-Brexit Britain as they suffer the burdens of rising stock and export markets.

“It’s good for the markets to see that it seems as though ... people are actually sitting down and trying to make [Brexit] work appropriately for the economy and that’s probably why you’re seeing a good, decent boost to equity markets right now,” Karrlsson-Willis said.

OK. So Brexit might mean prosperity for Britain, but its still bad because it was driven by ignorance and racism, right? That's all you have to know.

The well-to-do voted Remain, the down-at-heel demanded to Leave. The Brexiteer/Remainer divide splits almost perfectly, and beautifully, along class lines. Of local authorities that have a high number of manufacturing jobs, a whopping 86 per cent voted Leave. Of those bits of Britain with low manufacturing, only 42 per cent did so. Of local authorities with average house prices of less than £282,000, 79 per cent voted Leave; where house prices are above that figure, just 28 per cent did so. Of the 240 local authorities that have low education levels — i.e. more than a quarter of adults do not have five A to Cs at GCSE — 83 per cent voted Leave. Then there’s pay, the basic gauge of one’s place in the pecking order: 77 per cent of local authorities in which lots of people earn a low wage (of less than £23,000) voted Leave, compared with only 35 per cent of areas with decent pay packets....
Surveys, however, dent this claim that the anti-EU throng was driven by disdain for foreigners. In a post-vote ComRes poll, only 34 per cent of Leave voters cited concern about immigration as their main reason for voting out (and concern about immigration isn’t necessarily racism). A majority, 53 per cent, said they rejected the EU because they think Britain should make its own laws. So this swath of the country, defamed as a brainless pogrom-in-waiting, was actually voting for democracy

Oh, yeah. Class, the one thing the neoliberals in the Democratic and Labour parties pretend doesn't exist anymore, and democracy, the thing the neoliberals in the Democratic and Labour parties pretend to still respect.
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Distrusting and rejecting popular will has always been the domain of the wealthy, right-wing elite until now. And for what? Is fighting a initiative, supported by the working class and rejected by the globalist financial elite, really something you want to sacrifice a sacred value for?
You can't come back from rejecting democracy. You can't pick and chose what you will accept and call it democracy.

Or as Matt Taibbi put it:

My admittedly primitive understanding of democracy is that we're supposed to move toward it, not away from it, in a moment of crisis....
If you think there's ever such a thing as "too much democracy," you probably never believed in it in the first place. And even low-Information voters can sense it.

A good example of this "new progressive" side can be found in this New Yorker article, called "A Perilous Nationalism at Brexit".
Now I've never been a fan of nationalism, but I find it ironic that these liberals can be threatened by nationalism when people vote against Globalism, as Obama said. Yet they don't see the dangers of nationalism when it comes to hyping it for war.
Bernie Sanders gets it.

Surprise, surprise. Workers in Britain, many of whom have seen a decline in their standard of living while the very rich in their country have become much richer, have turned their backs on the European Union and a globalized economy that is failing them and their children.
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Go Corbyn!

the YouGov poll for The Times found that if all three candidates stood, Mr Corbyn would secure 54 percent of the votes with Ms Eagle on 21 percent and Owen Smith on 15 percent.

If Mr Corbyn was opposed by just Ms Eagle, 58 percent would vote for the current leader and just 34 percent for the challenger.

The poll indicated that Mr Corbyn's margin of victory may be slightly narrower if just Mr Smith stood against him - 56 percent for Mr Corbyn and 34 percent for Mr Smith - but the result would still be a convincing victory for the incumbent.

Despite the chaos in the Labour ranks, the poll of more than 1,000 party members suggested that 55 percent of members thought Mr Corbyn was doing well - up from 51 percent at the end of June.

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voter suppression? They were going to bar people who had joined Labour within the last 6 months or at least require them to cough up 50 (?) GBP to make up for their tardiness.

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‏@MichaelLCrick
150,000 figure for new Labour "registered supporters" now confirmed by second source. More than any other party has in total members

Éoin
‏@LabourEoin
Of those publicly stating they paid £25 to register as Labour Supporters, more than 80%+ said they did so to support Jeremy Corbyn.

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parties have for the left. The establishment within Labour has been frothing at the mouth over Corbyn forever, they tried to seize on the post-Brexit vote turmoil to oust him, but he stayed put! Good for him, I hope they hold a vote and get embarrassed by a big Corbyn victory.

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CambridgePulsar1919's picture

...but I know enough about UK politics to know that Labour has been betraying actual laborers pretty much since the day the party was formed.
Anyone wanting to understand how money and influence peddling really poisons representative politics only needs to look at UK politics of the 20th Century.

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Roy Blakeley's picture

You have been doing great work on this. The leaderships of many of the traditionally pro-worker parties around the world have become anti-worker (Democratic Party in the US, New Labour in the UK, Socialists in France) and working class people are looking for someone to represent them. How this will play out is very uncertain and may vary by country. Marine Le Pen in France, for example, is much more pro-worker than the Socialists (not true of her father or all of her party) in terms of pensions, workers rights, etc. Corbyn is certainly trying to move Labour back to pro-worker and Bernie is trying to move the Democratic Party in that direction. I see it as the major struggle now and for the next several years. Without incorporating the working class in the US other goals (carbon reduction, better health care, etc. etc.) will not be achievable. Again, thanks for the update.

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Of course, nobody should believe him, but he's certainly not less credible on these issues than Hillary.

Trump could win this election if he goes hard on economic populist issues, soft-pedaled the nativist crap to some degree, and hit Hillary every day on corruption and lying. If I were running his campaign (God forbid), that's what I'd tell him, anyway.

When "Left" parties abandon left issues, then the right is free to pick and choose among them to gain adherents. History shows it works, too.

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CaptainPoptart's picture

has been replaced by an undemocratic technocracy bolstered only by a monetary union that is failing in country after country; Greece, Spain, Portugal and now Italy. IMHO we are seeing the last gasps of an ill conceived system.

If the ECB does not allow a state bailout to Italian banks, the damage to common bondholders will spread the pain amongst the common people who have been tricked into a "safe" investment for their personal savings and pensions. This bail in will in turn bring the 5 Star movement to power, and its first action will be a second Brexit vote which will be successful. That in turn, will lead the stampede to the door and the EU will be consigned to the dustbin of history, because the Spanish and Portugese will not be far behind.

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I'd rather learn from one bird how to sing than teach ten thousand stars how not to dance. - e.e.cummings

Its exports are tied to a currency that is cheaper than it otherwise would be, and many of its neighbors forfeit competitive advantages by not having their own currencies. The unemployment rate is lower than it has been at any time since reunification.

If Germany was willing to recycle its trade surpluses and tolerate a higher inflation rate, it might even be able to enjoy those benefits long-term and share them with its neighbors. Instead, it may end up killing the entire project.

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boriscleto's picture

The world is taking its revenge against the elites. When will America's wake up?

A snapshot of America in the middle of June 2016. It is several days before the first great shock of the summer, the Brexit vote, and here in America, all is serene. The threat posed by Senator Bernie Sanders has been suppressed. The Republicans have chosen a preposterous windbag to lead them; the consensus is that he will be a pushover. For all the doubts and dissent of the last year, the leadership faction of the country’s professional class seem to have once again come out on top, and they are ready to accept the gratitude of the nation.

And so President Barack Obama did an interview with Business Week in which he was congratulated for his stewardship of the economy and asked “what industries” he might choose to join upon his retirement from the White House. The president replied as follows:

… what I will say is that – just to bring things full circle about innovation – the conversations I have with Silicon Valley and with venture capital pull together my interests in science and organization in a way I find really satisfying.

In relating this anecdote, I am not aiming to infuriate because the man we elected in 2008 to get tough with high finance and shut the revolving door was now talking about taking his own walk through that door and getting a job in finance. No. My object here is to describe the confident, complacent mood of the country’s ruling class in the middle of last month. So let us continue.

He goes on to point out how tone deaf Obama and Clinton seem to be, spends several paragraphs on Obama's favorite columnist, David Brooks, then concludes...

It’s easy to see the problems presented by a cliquish elite when they happen elsewhere. In the countries of Old Europe, maybe, powerful politicians sell out grotesquely to Goldman Sachs; but when an idealistic American president announces that he wants to seek a career in venture capital, we have trouble saying much of anything. In Britain, maybe, they have an “establishment”; but what we have in America, we think, are talented people who deserve to be on top. One wonders what kind of a shock it will take to shake us out of this meritocratic complacency once and for all.

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" In the beginning, the universe was created. This has made a lot of people very angry, and is generally considered to have been a bad move. -- Douglas Adams, The Hitch Hiker's Guide to the Galaxy "

All our "elite" folks at the helm of the faltering dem party can't wrap their heads around how they are just as BAD as the repubs with their democracy crushing tactics. They are just as BAD as the repubs with their embrace of globalism (translated corporatism). And they are just as BAD as repubs with their cluelessness of how people are faring in today's world.

So tell me again how the dems are Better Than?

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glitterscale

I posted this on the GOS and I would like to share one of the comments.
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Here's my reply.

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edg's picture

I'm so glad I don't go there anymore. The globalists and elitists are in full charge of the TOP asylum. It takes real cowardice to hate on poor people that are only concerned about where their next paycheck and next meal are coming from.

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Regular reader of posts and comments Over There, this comment by bbb is FUCKING EXACTLY why I will never go back. What an asshole bbb is, wall street bootlikn jerk..... wow that comment by him set me off. Good thing I live on maui, I'm already over it. Aloha.
PS what goes around, comes around, aka KARMA

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is the financial services industry.

And those Banks are not the ones who are crushing it. Their assets dominated in the British Pound are what is getting crushed. If Brexit isn't well managed, you could also see those banking operations moving away from London.

The upside is that house prices and rents may become a lot cheaper for the people who are left behind.

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Amanda Matthews's picture

if he has to cover his keyboard in plastic to keep the spittal from destroying it.

The really unhinged ones over there are as hilarious as they are repugnant.

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I'm tired of this back-slapping "Isn't humanity neat?" bullshit. We're a virus with shoes, okay? That's all we are. - Bill Hicks

Politics is the entertainment branch of industry. - Frank Zappa

Borkrom's picture

By the way, I truly embrace and accept that each country needs to look out for its citizens and resources while understanding they are part and need to an active participate of a greater whole. Meaning there is a need for a balance approach and one group can not benefit at the suffering of another. The Brexit helped tip the scales in a more balanced approach for Great Britain.

The only end of the world scenario that I foresaw for them (Britain and EU) and see in our country- is the neoliberals (limousine liberals) and neo-conservatives (aka establishment) would not make as much money off the suffering of the little people and they lose some of their power over them.

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In the short-run that should benefit exporters, and it will likely reduce Britain's trade deficit.

It's also worth noting that Article 50 still hasn't been invoked, and the new British PM, who opposed Brexit, is saying she will punt on the issue for at least another year.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/19/government-awaits-first-...

Theresa May will not trigger article 50 of the Lisbon treaty initiating the UK’s departure from the European Union before the end of 2016, the high court has been told.

At the opening of the first legal challenge to the process of Brexit, government lawyers conceded that the politically sensitive case was likely to be appealed up to the supreme court.

At least seven private actions – arguing that only parliament and not the prime minister has the authority to invoke article 50 – have been identified to the court.

Confirming that ministers are not aiming to push the exit button until next year at the earliest, Jason Coppel QC, for the government, conceded that there was nonetheless “some urgency” to the issue.

“Notification [triggering] article 50 will not occur before the end of 2016,” Coppel told the court. Should anything change, he promised, the court would be given advance notice.

A lot of the hysteria around the vote implied that it might be binding, Cameron suggested as much saying he would trigger Article 50 the "next day". Now that the realization is setting in that the vote might simply be treated as an advisory referendum that will be ignored, or overturned, substantively what has changed other than Cameron's resignation?

Will the UK ever actually leave the EU? The currency valuations of both the British Pound and the euro probably reflect a degree of uncertainty. If the UK actually leaves the EU and the political leadership invokes Article 50 a lot will depend on what the next stage looks like. If the UK ends up in a position similar to Norway, it might not be that bad -- and it might even be beneficial to the UK. If the EU leadership wants to make an example out of the UK, you could have a different outcome.

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The toffs and financiers in the City would find a way to invalidate that vote. Let's hope British voters don't accept that, and bounce all the MP's who ignored them out on their collective ass.

Who was it who said something to the effect that tyranny is when the people are afraid of their rulers; democracy is when the rulers are afraid of their people.

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That's where I think we end up a year from now. It's a guess, but all of these moves by the conservatives are pushing in the direction of putting on a show. If they were really committed to it they would have selected one of the campaigners for the vote.

Think that's part of the reason that there is a push to get rid of Corbyn too. That way if the conservatives lose in the next election, there will be a Labour PM, or a Lib-Dem PM committed to overturning the referendum result. Corbyn has said he will honor the results of the referendum, and unlike most politicians, he seems to mean exactly what he says.

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I frankly was thrilled to pieces seeing Cameron step down. Smarmy bastid! BUT who knows what the interim pm will be like.

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glitterscale

still bad

Theresa May has said she would be willing to authorise a nuclear strike that could kill 100,000 people, as the House of Commons voted overwhelming to replace Britain’s Trident programme.
The prime minister confirmed she would be prepared to press the nuclear button if necessary as she opened a debate about whether the UK should spend up to £40bn replacing four submarines that carry nuclear warheads....
However, around 140 of his MPs - including leadership challengers Angela Eagle and Owen Smith voted in favour of renewing Trident, with many highlighting Labour’s historic position in support of a continuous at-sea nuclear deterrent. Forty-seven Labour MPs joined Corbyn in voting against Trident, while another 41 were absent or abstained.
Intervening in her opening speech, the SNP MP George Kerevan, asked: “Is she personally prepared to authorise a nuclear strike that can kill a hundred thousand innocent men, women and children?”
May responded: “Yes.
And I have to say to the honourable gentleman the whole point of a deterrent is that our enemies need to know that we would be prepared to use it, unlike some suggestions that we could have a deterrent but not actually be willing to use it, which seem to come from the Labour party frontbench.”
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Alligator Ed's picture

monetary union that is failing in country after country; Greece, Spain, Portugal and now Italy. IMHO we are seeing the last gasps of an ill conceived system.

Even low information voters who know little about Brexit, do know they are getting screwed. What happens when a large segment of the population is consistently discriminated against? Often they get mad at "others", hence a rise in xenophobia and racism. If the mass of people become savvy enough to know where to lay the blame, they rightfully blame "the system". If knowledge about Brexit were not being suppressed by the MSM, then both Left and Right would become aware of how rotten the system is and the Bastards who caused it to be that way.

So why will Trump become President? Just look at the re-congealing of the Repugs. Their convention has been all sweetness and light--Bad news for Medusa. For several reasons there will be a significant drop in Democratic votes for HRC, which reasons are well known to c99ers.

Although Jill Stein might make considerable electoral gains, they won't be enough to prevent her Heinous from being crowned--but they will draw votes from HRC. Yes, you Smart Ones in the DNC can't tell which way the wind is blowing. Hillary is a war-monger, war criminal. Trump wants improved foreign relations, especially with Russia.

Hillary's support for the TPP is real, despite her campaign claims to the contrary. Trump is against it.

These are two critical conditions which make me (gasp!) seriously consider voting for Trump. Xenophobia--bad. Racism--bad. Treason--worse. ISDS, now matter how you frame is worse that EU. It is total abnegation of our sovereignty to a panel of 3 unelected corporatists. The plaintiff's in waiting expectations of profit-not actual loss of profits will heavily burden the US Govt. Guess who suffers most when the US Govt takes a hit? Clue: it ain't the .1%

Thanks, gjohnsit, for this Brexit update. I am actually shocked how rapidly the economic situation in the UK seems to be turning round. Sure as hell baffled the Smart People who predicted the locusts and plagues. Probably Scotland and Northern Ireland will not be so eager to split from England because a growing English economy can only benefit the rest of the UK.

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Roger Fox's picture

are tied up with ISDS?

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FDR 9-23-33, "If we cannot do this one way, we will do it another way. But do it we will.

Roger Fox's picture

are tied up with ISDS?

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FDR 9-23-33, "If we cannot do this one way, we will do it another way. But do it we will.

What happens if Jill Stein gets 40% of the votes, while Trump and Hillary get 30% each?

There are more Indies than either Dems or Republican, and a fair number of voters won't vote for either evil.

Of course, Americans are being told that the fix is in for the General, as well, by the Justice Dept. pulling oversight - not that they seemed to do much anyway. but eyes, cameras, protests and lawsuits need to be everywhere in the General.

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Psychopathy is not a political position, whether labeled 'conservatism', 'centrism' or 'left'.

A tin labeled 'coffee' may be a can of worms or pathology identified by a lack of empathy/willingness to harm others to achieve personal desires.