A third Iraqi-Kurdish War?
Submitted by gjohnsit on Mon, 09/18/2017 - 10:22pm
The Kurds of Iraq are about to vote for independence and Baghdad is not happy.
Iraq is prepared to intervene militarily if the Kurdish region’s planned independence referendum results in violence, Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi told The Associated Press in an exclusive interview Saturday.
If the Iraqi population is “threatened by the use of force outside the law, then we will intervene militarily,” he said.
Iraq’s Kurdish region plans to hold the referendum on support for independence from Iraq on Sept. 25 in three governorates that make up their autonomous region, and in disputed areas controlled by Kurdish forces but which are claimed by Baghdad.
The Iraqi army marching into Kurdistan would not be something new.
Iraq's parliament rejected the Kurdish referendum, and then removed the governor of Kurdish-controlled Kirkuk from office.
And then things got serious.
Turkey on Thursday welcomed an Iraqi parliament move to reject a referendum on Kurdish independence.
The parliament in Baghdad authorized the prime minister to “take all measures” to preserve Iraq’s unity in response to the move to hold an independence referendum in Iraq’s semi-autonomous Kurdish region on Sept. 25.
Kurdish leader Massoud Barzani vowed to press ahead with the vote, calling it “a natural right”.
“Barzani’s referendum decision is a historic mistake. Turkey will follow policies that take Iraq’s territorial integrity as a basis,” Deputy Prime Minister Bekir Bozdag said.
Unlike every other time, the outcome of this conflict is not certain.
The Iraqi Kurds have never been stronger, while Baghdad has never been weaker.
The Iraqi Army never fully recovered from its 2014 collapse, and what parts that were rebuilt were chewed up in the Battle of Mosul.
That doesn't mean Baghdad has no army on it's side.
The Iraqi army and Hashid al-Shaabi (Popular Mobilization Units) have sent more troops to the town of Amerli, southwest of Tuz Khurmatu, a Peshmerga commander said.
...Mahmoud Sangawi, the head of Peshmerga forces at the Garmaser front and a member of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) Politburo, said on Friday (September 8) that Arabs in Mandali threatened they would attack Kurds if the referendum was carried out.
A Kurdish independence vote would likely be followed with an invasion by Shia militias.
Comments
So the trick is
how the US can sell more weapons to the Kurds Iraqis and Turks. Maybe to Iran of we can get East European gangsters to front for us, like we did with the Syrian-rebels-but-not-Syrians we work with.
Orwell: Where's the omelette?
Sounds good in theory, but...
Yes, the Kurds are at a high point and Baghdad is on the wane, but the key power in the region is Turkey - and they would love to use this vote as a pretext to squash both the Iraqi and Turkish Kurds. In the past, US influence restrained Turkey from seriously putting down the Kurds, but we're on the outs with them right now, so I'm not sure they'd care what we think. I could easily see Turkey uniting with Baghdad to "solve their mutual problem" if the Kurds aren't careful.
I see a nice big pit that they're throwing money into...
Ok, that's not fair. It's a huge pit they're paying huge amounts of money to contractors to throw even MORE money into. After they have thrown a bunch more money in and lit it on fire.
And people, but we don't tend to talk about that any more. Say what you will about Obama, he certainly got those flag draped coffins off the news.
I do not pretend I know what I do not know.
money
Don't forget whose money all of it is.
Ours.
"US govt/military = bad. Russian govt/military = bad. Any politician wanting power = bad. Anyone wielding power = bad." --Shahryar
"All power corrupts absolutely!" -- thanatokephaloides
The Kurds were once known as the Mitanni.
After that they established a nation around Lakes Urmia and Van which historians know as Urartu. Kurdistan has never managed to maintain its' independence for more than at most a century or two, probably because of the rocky terrain which doesn't produce very much. The ancient trade routes go around, not through, Kurdistan, so no possibility of becoming rich by taxing caravans.
Iran is recruiting Shiite fighters from around the ME with promises of good salaries and eventual settlement in Iran, allegedly to fight ISIS, but I would imagine that the Kurds are the true target. It appears that no one in the ME is prepared to allow the Kurds to keep Mosul and its' oil fields.
The heroic women fighters of Kurdistan will no doubt continue to acquit themselves well and continue to be ignored by American feminists. Remember the last article/conference/event in support and celebration of our brave Kurdish sisters? No, me neither, because no such event, etc. happened.
Mary Bennett
Turkey warns again
link
The Kurds are over extended...
both in Iraq and Syria.
Fighting as a US proxy has gained the mountain people a lot of flat ground they can't hope to hold should a concerted effort be made by Turkey, Syria, Iraq and Iran to take it back.
With the four surrounding regional players all hostile to Kurdish statehood, the Kurds are left clinging to US (and Israeli) support, which is how the US likes it. But how long will/can that support last?
Only Putin knows.
The current working assumption appears to be that our Shroedinger's Cat system is still alive. But what if we all suspect it's not, and the real problem is we just can't bring ourselves to open the box?