Sunday Open Thread 03-01-15
Good morning 99percenters!
So did March come in like a lion at your house? Just how predictable is the weather where you live? According to Nate Silver at fivethirtyeight.com it depends on where you live. Honolulu is the place to be if you want predictability. Don’t want to leave the mainland, then check out San Diego. But where is the weather truly the most unpredictable?
Fivethirtyeight built an elaborate model that compares daily weather patterns against long term averages. They took ten weather statistics: high temperatures; low temperatures; daily mean temperatures; rainfall, in inches; snowfall, in inches of snow; a binary variable indicating the presence or absence of precipitation; wind speed; humidity; cloud cover; and, a binary variable indicating whether there was a severe weather event and did their mathematical magic. The data came from 120 weather stations across the country.
Follow the link to see where you fit into their predictable/unpredicable table. The most unpredictable, by the way, is Rapid City, SD. The most unpredictable populous place is Kansas City, MO.
This is an open thread. Go ahead and tell us what’s on your mind, or share a link about something interesting. The floor is yours.
Comments
It's pretty predictable here
in Portlandia. If it's not raining, wait five minutes, then it will be.
Is it Climate Change
or Global Warming, because it sure seems like two different things?
I try not to use the term "Climate Change" anymore
Because the change from "global warming" to "climate change" was to some extent brought about by Frank Luntz:
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2010/12/22/207231/debunking-the-dumbest...
"More for Gore or the son of a drug lord--None of the above, fuck it, cut the cord."
--Zack de la Rocha
"I tell you I'll have nothing to do with the place...The roof of that hall is made of bones."
-- Fiver
"anti-science" crowd.
You mean if I think Al Gore is full of shit, I'm anti-science?
Unfortunately, talking about the issue is worse than talking about 9/11.
are you saying you don't think
we're fucking up the climate with pollution?
"More for Gore or the son of a drug lord--None of the above, fuck it, cut the cord."
--Zack de la Rocha
"I tell you I'll have nothing to do with the place...The roof of that hall is made of bones."
-- Fiver
Actually I'm saying that I'd like to discuss the issue
without people assuming things like that.
No offense. What I see are strange bedfellows and a lot of people believing in things from those bedfellows
they don't necessarily do in other cases. It's an issue that can get you a CT accusation quicker than 9/11 even from
people who believe 9/11 was a false flag. It's almost heretical, especially from the Daily Kos crowd,
to doubt the "science" behind global warming and point out alternative conclusions. When there's such vehement
pushback, name calling, etc., it usually points to a concerted purpose, trying to prevent discussion. These are people
that believe everything they're told by Obama, Gore, Clinton, they don't know shit about anything else, and yet they
are convinced of the "science".
I know what these fuckers, the ruling class, are up to with the global carbon taxes and Agenda 21 and all that. They claim to be
doing it in the name of fighting climate change/global warming. The same fuckers that are tearing the world apart with their military
machine, grabbing all the wealth in the world, and making the rest of us live like serfs.
I've no doubt what humans have done and are doing to the earth is having a negative impact. I did work for the Forest
Service for over 20 years and have seen the environmental movement up close and personal. But this issue is being
manipulated and used by the ruling class for their own agenda, and it's not to solve the problem.
That's why I've long said, fuck Al Gore, I won't trust him if my life depends on it.
I don't trust
Al Gore one bit myself, he's a sleazy DLC pol. On the other hand global warming is not about Al Gore or any lying pol. 'You don't have to be a weatherman to see which way the wind blows'. All you have to do is look out your window. As an old gardener I have had years of 'anecdotal evidence' that make it quite clear that global warming is causing climate change. It's the warmest February on record. Sea's rising, droughts in CA, freaking unseasonal storms. I agree that this issue is being manipulated by the ruling class they don't call them disaster cappies for nothing.
I get called an anti-science fundie at dkos for many reasons, mainly my anti GMO Monsanto stance. I also am a health food advocate and get sick of the techie geeks there telling me I'm anti-vax/ science because I eat organic and think big oil, big pharma and big ag are the monkey's paw. Don't even get me started on the robotics and nukes are inevitable crowd. I also agree with you about burning up the world with endless war. How can you believe what any of our ruling class has to say about working to resolve global warming when our global economy and geopolitics are all about grease extraction and plundering the planets resources for 'wealth creation.' The last thing these sociopaths want to do is implement any policy or change that will require humans to stop burning up the planet and rock their market driven boat. It would be the end of the world the world they have sold us as democratic, civilized and inevitable progress.
You should read Naomi Klein's latest book it's right up this alley.
Well, there are alternative opinions out there.
But like I said, it's impossible to bring those up in the progressive, liberal, democrat, lefty, realm. Climate change is the number
one issue not to fuck with or you'll be attacked, shunned, thot of as something bad like a CTer or crazy libertarian or something. It is
something that we should not even question according to those who evidently are excellent at scientific analysis.
Even me saying, "there are alternative opinions out there" will get people really upset. I don't have to even say what those opinions
are, just by inferring something different I will get attacked.
Take this diary for example. The author twice makes it a point to say, "There is no debate in the scientific community." Hear that
all the time, there is no debate.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2015/03/02/1367985/-LA-Times-eviscerates-M...
So I've never debated it. This is actually the first time I've ever sat at my computer and typed out words about climate change. Never
did it at DK because I knew it would be received exactly like discussing 9/11, which there is also "no debate".
I've never delved much into climate science. But evidently a whole lot of people have so I'd just be wasting my time. I should just
believe that the science is unassailable to think anything different makes me just plain wrong.
When there is no debate allowed, then something is wrong.
The thing is, whether I believe climate change
is being primarily caused by humans or not, I'm still all for the same remedies proposed by those who do.
There's no doubt our actions cause such things as smog and dangerous air to breath, clear-cutting forests affects
the air, rivers, streams, soil, wildlife. I could go on and on. We need to transition to clean, renewable energy sources,
we need to change from gangster neverending capitalism to something better,
we need to take care of the land by not putting pesticides and Roundup and other chemicals in our water supplies and
food supplies, etc., etc.
I'm sure there are a lot of people like me who are skeptical of the debate (or lack thereof) but totally agree with
how we should proceed with human society relative to taking care of the earth.
What we don't need are Carbon taxes. That won't solve anything except putting more money and power into the hands
of the ruling elite.
Correction, ruling "class".
not "elite". There's no elite about it. I try to train myself to avoid saying what we've been trained to say.
It's like when people say, "we" bombed the shit out of Iraq. I don't like to say "we", I'd prefer to say "they",
i.e., they that rule over us. But then again, "we" allowed it, we acquiesced, we voted for the bastards that
did it, and they told us they were going to do it before we did. So there's a fine line between we and they.
I saw this in a book about climate
"Global warming" refers to rising temperatures on the planet. "Climate change" refers to the phenomena--such as droughts and floods--that result from global warming.
Unfortunate, as you pointed out, Frank Luntz and Company have used "climate change" to make what is happening seem less scary.
Breaking News
There are reports just coming out with a video of the murder of Boris Nemtsov. It's not completely clear,
but it does appear that it was Vladimir Putin who actually shot Boris. You can see his nose
sticking out from under the hood and he doesn't have a shirt on underneath his ninja gown. Comparing
the chest with that of previous photos of Vlad's chest provides a striking match, down to the Lola tattoo
above his left nipple.
I think someone should tell Daily Kos immediately, they were right.
It's time for war.
redacted personal information
reporting from the demonstration to mourn the death of Boris Nemtsov said that the video shows Nemtsov walking with a young woman, a 23 year old Ukrainian woman, and that a street cleaning car passed slow by the couple.
...
https://www.euronews.com/
heh...
march came in with snow and sleet here. i'm glad i drove back from philly last night rather than staying over and heading back in the morning.
oh well, off to collect some music for next week's posts.
Faulty link to 538 updated
Sorry about that!
"Never separate the life you live from the words you speak." --Paul Wellstone
Bracing for freezing rain and sleet. A little OT,
on XM Radio, Jeb Bush's performance at CPAC this past week was compared to Bill Clinton's telling the Base to take a hike, years ago--IOW, it was the same as Clinton's "Sister Souljah" moment.
Bush even 'bussed in' supporters (according to Laura Ingraham) from K Street! Still, there was a walkout and boos.
I've been saying that I thought the upcoming 2016 general election will likely be the most fawning and milquetoast that we've ever witnessed. This comment seems to somewhat fortify my point.
To be sure, don't forget to take a nickel when you show up at the voting booth--a toss of the coin will probably be a necessity!
That is, unless the Republican Base actually beats back the Repub Party Establishment.
Mollie
P.S. Oh, even though Paul won (again), our corporate media talked about pretty much every candidate CPAC participant but him, on the Sunday talk shows today. Talk about shills for the One Percent and the MIC . . .
Everyone thinks they have the best dog, and none of them are wrong.
Take a nice big coin
and toss it really high - it might at least make some people laugh.
"Never separate the life you live from the words you speak." --Paul Wellstone
Jeb! versus Hillary the Inevitable
And to make matters worse, the nation is facing a bourbon shortage at a time when it's needed most.
glad we're back. Now about Betty Boop...
Last night we watched very strange movie called "A Majority of One", starring Alec Guiness as a Japanese businessman and Rosalind Russell as a Jewish widow from Brooklyn. From this distance, 54 years later, it's pretty weird. Originally a play, this thing is making some point about racism, bigotry, prejudice but it's fairly stilted. The playwright had his points that he was going to make and made them in a heavy way, although the movie was light.
To make his points he had the characters doing some crazy gymnastics, i.e. saying one thing and a minute later saying the opposite, just to push a viewpoint. Weird, I tell you! Rosalind Russell was amusing enough (although not intentionally) as the widow. I knew at some point she'd say "oy vey!" and she did, at which time I slapped shaharazade's knee. Oh how we laughed! And then we had to wait for Alec Guiness to say "ah so", which he did quite a bit later. It was a long film!
It was made in1961 which was about the same time as West Side Story. Both movies had a similar problem. They wanted to tear down prejudice but when it came right down to it they just couldn't have a white man kiss a latina, or a white woman kiss an actual Japanese man. So instead we saw white people pretending to be Puerto Rican or Japanese.
There were definitely moments in "A Majority of One" that were embarrassing (for us at least). Like when Alec Guinness' character says "the hardest word in the English language is rorripop". Eeek!!
Anyway....one of the characters is a Brooklyn friend of Roz', named Essie. I recognized her voice as one that I'd heard before, knew she'd done commercials in the 60s. Finally near the end of the movie I remembered that she'd been the voice of Betty Boop.
Mae Questal.....I looked her up on google and sure enough it was her. Rather, I googled the movie, clicked on the actress who played "Essie" and read that yes, she'd done Betty Boop. And then I googled Mae Questal and found out an even more interesting story.
Ms. Questal had won a contest somewhere around 1930, imitating the singer, Helen Kane. Ms. Kane had recorded "I Want to Be Loved By You", later done by Marilyn Monroe, complete with "boop-oop-ee-doo".
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hclK-UKJNgk
When Max Fleischer wanted someone to do the Betty Boop voice he hired Ms. Questal because of her contest win.
After a long enough time for several Betty Boop cartoons to be made but a short enough time for not all that long to have passed by, Kane sued Fleischer for stealing her trademark sound...and look too, according to the suit.
It took a couple of years for the thing to be resolved and things did not go well for Kane. The look thing was dismissed quickly because it was similar to Clara Bow's, a flapper type of thing with curly dark hair. But the real problem was that Kane stole the act itself! Those who knew about this sort of thing testified that a black woman, "Baby Esther", a singer at the Cotton Club, had sung in that type of voice, complete with "boop-oop-ee-doo", that Kane and her manager had seen Esther perform like that, and that Kane began using the style within weeks.
So why didn't Esther then sue Fleischer? As far as anybody knew, she had died at a young age, sometime in between 1928 and 1934. If she'd still been alive? I'm not sure but I don't think there was much of a success rate for black performers suing white performers in those days.
I want to move
to a place that does not get snow. That is all.
"Never separate the life you live from the words you speak." --Paul Wellstone
temporarily enjoying the weather but concerned
when we moved here in 1990 Portland had this cycle: rain starting late October, some snow in December, more rain all through January, high winds throughout the winter, temperatures in the 30s, moving into the 40s as March came, then months of rain and temperatures in the 50s until July 4th when we'd wake up and it'd be 100 degrees. That 100 would alternate with pleasant summer days through September, into October and then it'd rain again.
This past year we had a very hot summer. I believe it was the highest number of day 90 degrees or hotter in history. And now, this winter is extremely mild. High today was 59. Really, for this time of year it should be 40. But it was 59. Within a week we'll be mid-60s. We like it now but the ecosystem is based on rain. We need the cold to keep bugs in check. Will it get worse? Probably! So we can like the balmy weather today but I think we'll pay for it down the line.