Retrospect on about one year of COVID...

...is it headed for the rear view mirror? Probably.

I wanted to post this commentary because I found it to be the best summary of the pandemic and our dysfunction in appropriately addressing the disease. Hope you enjoy the analysis. 15 min

transcript here for those who prefer reading

More along these lines from The Atlantic
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/02/how-public-health-mess...

... the reporting nor the public-health messaging has reflected the truly amazing reality of these vaccines. There is nothing wrong with realism and caution, but effective communication requires a sense of proportion—distinguishing between due alarm and alarmism; warranted, measured caution and doombait; worst-case scenarios and claims of impending catastrophe. We need to be able to celebrate profoundly positive news while noting the work that still lies ahead. However, instead of balanced optimism since the launch of the vaccines, the public has been offered a lot of misguided fretting over new virus variants, subjected to misleading debates about the inferiority of certain vaccines, and presented with long lists of things vaccinated people still cannot do, while media outlets wonder whether the pandemic will ever end.

And from an interview with Dr Monica Gandhi-

Dr. Gandhi: ... Like March 11th was the day that the WHO declared this a worldwide pandemic. November 9th, we got the first press release from the first vaccine. Phase three clinical trial, that fast. And then we’ve had seven phase three clinical trials. So we have seven vaccines in circulation around the globe that work. And they work exactly using the same protein in different ways using that protein, and they work beautifully, and they all work beautifully against preventing what even made us notice on January 31st, 2019 or December 31st, 2019 that something terrible was happening, which is severe disease. They all work almost 100% to prevent… 100% for hospitalizations. And then like in the 90s to prevent you not even feeling well at home. So they’re amazing.

So we all have to make our own decision about getting vaccinated and which vaccine to get. We got the first one we could...a Moderna. Second shot is next week. The Florida Folk Festival crowd has decided to gather end of May and have our own mini-fest. Everyone in the group will be vaccinated by then. These doctors make me feel good about the decision.

Guess I wanted to share the optimism that we are at the beginning of the end of this pandemic. I'm sorry we lost over a half million people in the US, most through mismanagement and poor treatments. Before it is over, I believe we may match the US deaths from the 1918 influenza pandemic...

Before COVID-19, the most severe pandemic in recent history was the 1918 influenza virus, often called “the Spanish Flu.” The virus infected roughly 500 million people—one-third of the world’s population—and caused 50 million deaths worldwide (double the number of deaths in World War I). In the United States, a quarter of the population caught the virus, 675,000 died, and life expectancy dropped by 12 years. With no vaccine to protect against the virus, people were urged to isolate, quarantine, practice good personal hygiene, and limit social interaction.

https://www.archives.gov/news/topics/flu-pandemic-1918

Be well and keep a good heart!

Share
up
12 users have voted.

Comments

enhydra lutris's picture

though also projecting that this one is all but over. Not sure I agree with the reasoning, but it wasn't conspiracy level crazy by any means.

One problem I find with all projections is that they are based on vaccinations.
1) All populations need to be vaccinated since international travel and commerce will resume
2) Certain vaccination thresholds must be met in any population
3) In this nation, specifically, we have regular anti-vaxxers and CV-19 specific anti-vaxxers of numerous types and persuasions that could well see to it that we never meed those thresholds here

be well and have a good one

up
7 users have voted.

That, in its essence, is fascism--ownership of government by an individual, by a group, or by any other controlling private power. -- Franklin D. Roosevelt --

One year is plenty long enough for any nightmare. I have had no clue about how long this would last, and I still don't. I do recall clearly, however, how people in RL have been hoping for the vaccine to arrive to put an end to all the trouble. This hope has never abated and it is nice to see an article proclaiming the imminent vindication of the theory.

I will be one happy sumbitch when the triumph goes from prediction to reality for The Vaccine.

Well, it isn't THE vaccine, it is a smorgsabord. And now we will find out what the media tells us the result of these fistful of syrninges' effort to bring us back to normal. Just like Election 2020, it will be suspenseful!!!

Third wave? Asteroid Virus in the rear view mirror? I vote for the rear view mirror!!!!!

up
1 user has voted.

I cried when I wrote this song. Sue me if I play too long.

@fire with fire @fire with fire right? heh

California’s new COVID-19 vaccine system to start Monday

Monday? Isn't that today? Why yes, yes it is and here we are just getting started! Today.

In summary

The new system, operated by Blue Shield, aims to streamline a confusing county-by-county patchwork of vaccination efforts. “Give us a chance to make this work,” Blue Shield’s CEO said.

Well alrighty then!

I am trying to hold off mRNA for at least 5 years, to see what long term affects occur in the different populations, because I'm prone to bad things after a decade of pHarma experimentation attempting to "cure" my incurable illnesses. Depressives die younger than general population, despite all the drugs delivered, all the empty promises that cost a lot of money. I can hardly keep my jaw from constant infection, so worn out now. Edited: for spelling, and to add the words Dental Care.

Plus, "nobody wants to know you when you're poor" is one of the truest bombs my neighbor ever dropped on top of my head. If the health center can't pump me often enough to pay their rents, they really don't care at all, I already have Medicare since years. "You are the weakest link, goodbye!" is not something I'd wish for all right now. No.

Good luck.

up
12 users have voted.

@eyo .

In my own snarky way, I was making fun of the universal hunger for miracles.

And I am not opposed to miracles! I hope the vaccines work as advertised and we get to the end of the pandemic soon. The vaccine has not paid much attention to our hopes so far, and I will be pleasantly surprised when and if it does.

For now, it is all mystery.

up
7 users have voted.

I cried when I wrote this song. Sue me if I play too long.

enhydra lutris's picture

@eyo

far has been crazy. Local Kaiser, with far and away the largest percentage of the population enrolled/covered, has, thus far, been getting about 5% of the vaccine. I'm not expecting any real improvement. I'm in Kaiser, but had to go outside to plain ol' county services to get my first jab and second is scheduled from same source Thursday.

be well and have a good one.

up
3 users have voted.

That, in its essence, is fascism--ownership of government by an individual, by a group, or by any other controlling private power. -- Franklin D. Roosevelt --

and the US Navy too. Just listening to the video about the messaging, the messengers, the message etc., is this guy Son of Lakoff? LOL "twitter juice and doom bait" omg it just ended and he is a Medical Doctor? wow Good one, thanks.

2 U.S. Navy ships in Middle East with COVID-19 outbreaks ordered back to port

Feb. 26 (UPI) ...The U.S. 5th Fleet revealed that about a dozen service members aboard the amphibious transport dock USS San Diego have tested positive for the virus, and that the vessel has already pulled into port in Bahrain.
...
Those identified as coming into contact with a positive case have been isolated and measures are being followed in accordance with the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Navy guidelines and the Bahrain Ministry of health.

The announcement was made days after the Navy said Chief Hull Technician Justin Huf, 39, died on Monday of COVID-19-related complications. He was assigned to Assault Craft Unit 4 based in Little Creek, Va.

Soldiers and sailors have to live in poorly ventilated cramped areas too, and last time I checked the starting pay was not that great. One would think the front lines of US offensive personnel could get vaccinated, but no I guess that message don't resonate far enough, no donors in range.

There is a Tree of Life in Bahrain, maybe it is THE tree of life I don't know.
worldatlas.com
Tree of Life - Natural Wonders of Bahrain

The ever-green Tree of Life of Bahrain, or otherwise referred to as Shajarat-al-Hayat by the locals, is approximately 400 years old. It is believed to have been planted in 1583. The tree is covered with green leaves, despite being in the Arabian Desert. The Tree of Life is located 2km from Jebel Dukhan. It is approximately 9.75 meters tall and a lone tree standing in the desert, with no other vegetation around it. Minimal vegetation can be spotted a few miles away from the Tree of Life. The tree is called the Tree of Life due to its ability to thrive with no obvious source of water.

right on

Dig Deep
Peace and Love

up
7 users have voted.
lotlizard's picture

@eyo  
when Saudi jackboots rolled in across the causeway.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2011/mar/18/bahrain-destroys-pearl-rou...

With Obama’s approval.

Without Obama’s approval it couldn’t have happened, since the U.S. Fifth Fleet is berthed in Bahrain.

up
3 users have voted.

@lotlizard thanks, I guess I needed to know more and now I do. Great article of awful facts. Feels familiar again.

There are 25 islands in Bahrain and all of them belong to the ruling family. We cannot buy land, we cannot get building approvals. The mercenaries they bring in and give nationality to can do all of this easily. But we, the original Bahrainis, can't.

Not enough java yet this a.m. so feeling fuzzy and my brain substitutes rivers for islands and California for Bahrain. My guts can't defend BLM hard enough 'cause I'm all like "keep going" until some justice comes and the ecocide ebbs for a few generations. One ruling family? Don't say Brown, Jake. It's Chinatown, etc.. I don't respect my own fine history.

The article ends in Syria, of course. sheesh

pay rises, cash, loans and apartments in what appeared to be the Arab world's most expensive attempt to appease the unrest that has swept two leaders from power. He also announced the creation of 60,000 security force jobs, a move that would employ huge numbers of otherwise jobless young men, while bolstering his kingdom's ability to snuff out protests.

Why do I think Grampy Joe is being fitted for his own fine Jacks right now? booty mcbootface I think you are just here to sow discord lotlizard. LOL good job, you are great. Cheers.

Peace and Love

up
1 user has voted.
Granma's picture

People. I think it has not been a question of what they said as much as how the media has reported it.
IMO, she is too hard on them. In many places in this country, public health officials require 24/7 security detail to protect them. There have been that many threats, harassment of all varieties, dimply because they recommended mask wearing and other safety precautions.

Half a million people have died of this virus. And the people whose job it is to tell us how best to protect ourselves are getting death threats.

up
8 users have voted.
Granma's picture

And pandemic. It is a miracle what scientists and researchers have accomplished. The amazing feat of having developed safe, effective vaccines in such a short space of time deserves celebration. Many people worked long, grueling hours for months to make this happen.

There is expected to be enough vaccine for all adults by summer. I predict many BBQs, picnics, potlucks, family reunions this summer. Seems everyone wants to have a party and invite everyone they know, all the people they have not been able to see for a year now.

up
6 users have voted.
Lookout's picture

@Granma

that is point of the post. The end is near IMO. Hope you've gotten your vaccine. It was tricky finding one here. Next week we should be over the hump and I think many others are following suit.

up
4 users have voted.

“Until justice rolls down like water and righteousness like a mighty stream.”

snoopydawg's picture

@Granma

If yes then yay for you. If not when? I’d try the Johnson vaccine, but I want to see the long term results. None of the final reports are due till next fall.

But I want Biden to order drug companies to create more of the cure and especially if the vaccines don’t target the mutations. How is it fair that rich people’s lives can be saved but little Mary who works 3 jobs can’t be? Let’s save lives instead of letting so many die.

up
6 users have voted.

The donor class doesn’t want it, and Americans elect the bribed. So suck it up.

Humans must not submit to policing by machine.

Granma's picture

@snoopydawg people in my age group only became eligible a week ago. There are hundreds of thousands of eligible people and no vaccine for them in Oregon. They think it will be the end of May before there is enough vaccine for all the seniors who want it. What is stupid IMO, is that every week or two, eligibility is expanded. Meanwhile people in the very first eligibility group have not all been able to receive vaccine. I don't get why they keep expanding eligibility when they have so little vaccine.

The one smart thing Oregon did was to make teachers and other frontline school staff eligible for vaccine ahead of seniors not in nursing homes so that schools could safely get back to some in person teaching. Whether those teachers actually managed to receive vaccine, I don't know. Because of the need for physical distancing, in person teaching is only 2 days a week for any given child. They just have half a class in person on any given day, online learning the other days.

up
2 users have voted.
lotlizard's picture

“Did you agree to this? Everybody’s locked up.”

up
2 users have voted.

Epidemiologist Dr. Michael Osterholm says new COVID-19 strains will likely cause cases to surge in March. Osterholm, who was on Biden's transition task force, says the U.S. needs to revise its vaccine and mask strategies now to save lives.

up
4 users have voted.
ovals49's picture

@jbob
The politically oriented PTB are making the case for reopenings, based on current declines in new cases. Osterholm is predicting a very steep rise in the “British” variant, which has already begun to spread in the US, to overwhelm our health care system beginning as soon as this month. He is urging immediate evaluation of currently available data to ascertain if it would be appropriate to switch to a first dose only administration of our limited supply of vaccines to everyone over 65 rather than to continue administrating a two dose regime to far fewer of this most vulnerable population. He makes a convincing case, and paints a horrific picture of an overwhelmed national health care system if we fail to pivot our current protocols quickly to address the threat of this much more infectious variant.

Wishful thinking driven by precaution fatigue and denialism is setting us up for a new wave while many are enjoying a nice sunny day at the beach, unaware that a massive hurricane is fast approaching.

If you’re looking for good news and pleasant reassurances on COVID, you will not find it in this interview.

up
3 users have voted.

“The only reason for time is so that everything doesn’t happen at once.” – Albert Einstein

@ovals49 @ovals49 If the UK variant takes off here as it has in some other countries we are in for another peak larger than what we've seen so far. The "happy talk" coming out now in some of the MSM about how much the infection rates have declined since the January peak is just feel good BS. If you look at a one year graph on it. You will see that even with a steep decline the rates are still above where they were in April and July last year when it was considered very bad.
here is a link to some graphs about this

up
2 users have voted.

Thanks to curiosity I looked up the population totals on census.gov for AL(4,903,185), OR(4,217,737), and CA(39,512,223).

I don't know if it will take ten times longer to vaccinate every body in California, but that is why I feel there is time for me to observe reports, continuing on. For all I know, it may take years to jab all those arms. Perhaps Blue Shield can do it in a year, or a matter of months.

Boy, I sure say "I don't know" a lot now. Yeah.

I want to thank all the people who are going first, providing "data" for those who seek it. Thanks a lot.

Peace and Love

up
3 users have voted.

@eyo The first dose of the pfizer vaccine made my arm sore for two days and I felt a little sick with flu like symptoms in the evening around 24 hours after getting the jab. I woke up feeling great the next day. It was no big deal for me. I go back for the second dose March 15. They say the after effects from the second shot are stronger. FYI

up
2 users have voted.

@jbob thanks, yes that sounds all normal and good like how I remember vaccines in my yute. ah youth
Profane rant follows, feel free to skip it. Have a nice day.

B.117 is in Marin County already, more transmittable supposedly. Yeah I don't feel so good after visiting here: https://covid19.ca.gov/masks-and-ppe/

Don’t buy surgical masks for personal use.
...
Don’t buy N95 respirator masks for personal use.

(checks watch, one year goes by) Rats! How am I going to breath outside this year when everything starts buuuurning again? soylent gills

Most people should wear a cloth mask. This is so there can be enough surgical masks and N95 respirator masks for medical personnel.

This is 2021, and fuck this shit i'm out. California can't fucking do shit in my lifetime, except for those who already have it all. button slam

One would think the fifth largest economy on the planet, with all these fucking billionaires, could at least provide PPE for all the people it invites to come here, continuing on. I'm sure the dozens of RVs and tents are just humming away on their sewing machines out there past River Road this winter, bud break awaits. After spending all their extra cash on fabric, or paying the squillions of vampire squid merchants that come and go around here like the tides (both gouge) they are more determined than ever to vote fucking blue. Gavin Newsom was first married to Kimberly Guilfoyle, please do never forget.

Enjoy the Bacerra everyone, and the recently promoted Clinton trash fixer known as the Padilla. As you read through Wendy's storify about Chowchilla, where my sister-in-law served years of abuse instead of rehabilitation, don't forget to think about the VP Harris. As California goes... keep flushing!

When my jaw gets infected my brain does too, that's what I think. proximity cloud

Peace and Regrets

up
5 users have voted.
lotlizard's picture

@eyo  
bloodstream, like some giant political endocrine gland… Kamala Harris continues the tradition of the Golden State’s ductless contributions.

up
2 users have voted.
snoopydawg's picture

@eyo
Can you tell me more about Bacerra? He’s up for HHS even though he doesn’t have a medical background from what I’ve read. I think he was an attorney general in California right? Padilla? Padilla, Padilla, why do I know that name? Anthony? I’ll Google him. If not, who?

up
2 users have voted.

The donor class doesn’t want it, and Americans elect the bribed. So suck it up.

Humans must not submit to policing by machine.

@snoopydawg hey I'm not expert, I just live here. Bacerra falls out of my lint trap every time from Bernie's first run in 2015 he said, and I posted the video that day in the BNR, "You guys don't know how hard we had it in the 90s" while schooling a sandwich clerk who was serving him in line somewhere. CLINTON TOOL Does he support raising wages yet? I don't know. He digs the ACA more than M4A which is why he's slotted for that shelf in the President's cabinet, sorry. He was a Congress critter down south for years so I guess people liked him. I never did. Democrats don't represent my values anymore, they are more criminal than ever now in my opinion, same as it ever was. Worse.

Bacerra assumed the office of attorney general to sue Trump and "protect immigrants". Well in my view he did one of those things and not the other. I can see with my own fine eyes who gets preference in this economy around here, and it's not immigrants. I always hope transition will lead to something better, but it never does for me. Racism is not helping, and it not going away either. But hey! influencers make tons of cash posting selfies and shit, right? Gaah.

Padilla Padilla, it is Alex. He assumed office as reward for grifting us out of Bernie's last run I think. Proprietary black box counting machines is partly why I stopped voting in California, continuing on. And this kind of brain dead wheel spinning(2016): Secretary of State Padilla Statement on Ballot Selfie Lawsuit
because nothing says fair election like a damned selfie, right? useless tool

These guys are lawyers who know how to sue. They are needed by society in my view, and they need to hold themselves to higher standards, but they don't. The just keep feeding like pigs at the trough.

If I could lower my own standards, trash my ethics, and ignore my higher mind I would be a happy person. And probably wealthy too. Oh well shrug. It sucks for decades, and then I will die. C'est la vie.

Peace and Love
P.S. I am fourth generation Dirty Irish myself, being despised lives in my DNA and so does famine. Everything has changed, and nothing has changed. Life is weird.

up
3 users have voted.
snoopydawg's picture

@eyo

however as you said it would cost us too much. Thanks for filling in the blanks. Yeah Barrera is just a tool for Biden to screw us more on health care. He is bringing back the mandate to have insurance or it will cost people money. Well if you can't use what you are forced to buy then how can they make you buy it and especially if you don't have an effing job and just lost their house? Jesus the cruelty we are doing here and around the world. Alb-right said that it was worth it that our sanctions killed 500,000 Iraqi children. We are killing people everywhere we have sanctions on countries and now it is happening here right in front of us with the killer climate disasters. Half a million dead because they opened the economy way too early during a global pandemic. Yeah. It was worth it to them to kill so many of us.

Ugh dark thoughts on a beautiful morning. Sam gets to ride in the car today to see my brother. I bet she will do some nose painting on the windows I had cleaned last week. Life with dawgs huh?

Be well, eyo.

up
2 users have voted.

The donor class doesn’t want it, and Americans elect the bribed. So suck it up.

Humans must not submit to policing by machine.