NPR gets QE wrong - Again.

So NPR had occasion to mention the federal reserves' policy of QE (quantitive easing) this morning. And once again made the false claim that QE "pumps money into the economy" when the central bank buys bonds.

Generally speaking, this is not how it works, as reserves are interbank payment clearing tools and never leave the banking system. Never, ever.

To understand why this is so, let's imagine that there is no paper money in existence. The central bank decides to mark up your bank account with reserves. What can you do with reserves? You can use your credit card to make a payment at Best Buy or a restaurant or what have you.

Once you do, your bank account will be marked down and Best Buys' account will be marked up. The reserves never left the banking system. If there was no paper money, money itself would never leave the banking sector.

What if you want to withdraw the reserves sitting in your bank account? Can you demand reserves? No.

What you can demand is paper money. But paper money is a NOTE, ie, a receipt, not the reserve itself.

When you demand $1 in paper money, your bank gives you a $1 note, and the central bank deducts $1 worth of reserves from your banks' account it holds at the central bank.

When you deposit a $1 paper note, the central bank credits your bank with $1 worth of reserves because you have not deposited a reserve, but a reserve note, or receipt.

Youtube is filled with little illustrations showing that the central bank prints paper dollar bills, and then those paper dollar bills flow out into the economy at large.

This is a fairly accurate depiction of what happens with paper money, - or notes or cash - but reserves are not notes and they aren't cash and they aren't paper.

Reserves are always only accounting marks on spread sheets and never leave the banking sector.

QE has been the exchange of one dollar denominated asset for other dollar denominated assets - reserves in exchange for treasury bonds and mortgage backed securities (primarily).

As long as the central bank is exchanging reserves for bonds and securities owned by banks, then no new money ever has a chance of getting out into the wider economy. This is so for 2 reasons:

1) It's merely a dollar for dollar asset exchange, so the accounting is: +1 - 1 = 0

2) Reserves never leave the banking sector.

Point number 2 includes the fact that banks do not loan out reserves. Rather, banks create deposits out of thin air by creating loans out of thin air. Similarly, the BitCoin creating computer program creates BitCoins out of thin air and does not need reserves of any kind before it can do so.

Banks make loans first. If they fall below their reserve requirements in countries that have reserve requirements, then they find the reserves after making the loan. First, they try to get the reserves by borrowing them from another bank that has more reserves than they need. If this fails, then they go to the central bank for a loan. The central bank will satisfy any banks' needs for reserves in order to preserve our payments system.

What if the central bank exchanges reserves for a bond not owned by a bank, but by a non-bank individual? Let's say you own a bond and the central bank takes your bond in exchange for reserves.

You had earned $1 and used that dollar to buy the bond. Now rather than $1 tied up in a bond, your bank account is marked up with $1 worth of reserves.

Are you any more wealthy?

No. You are, however, more liquid. Just what impact this extra liquidity has on the wider economy is up to you: Do you spend it at Best Buy? Save it? Buy another bond? Etc...

However, what if, rather than a bond, you owned some other security that had lost value during the crash?

So, let's say you bought a security for $5 one day, but it falls in value the next day and is now only worth $1.

If the central bank exchanges your $1 worth of securities for $1 worth of reserves, then no new net financial asset has been created.

But, if the central bank allows you to not mark your security to market value, then you come out ahead by $4.

Just how much the central bank has been dealing with bank owned bonds and securities vs the non-bank sector is not known, but most assume that the central bank has been dealing mostly with bank owned bonds and other types of securities, especially mortgage backed securities.

(Again, however, since the federal reserve is not transparent in its' dealings, no one knows for sure).

So, now the banks are choked full of reserves.

And banks have been relieved of their crap mortgage backed securities, which they did not have to mark to market, ie, did not have to show a loss. This is the real bail out.

That the banks are now choked full of reserves has nothing to do with the wider economy. It matters not to either you or me, or GE or Trump.

NPR thinks all these reserves are just flowing out into the rest of the economy.

They aren't. And they can't. If they did - we'd be seeing huge levels of inflation. We're not. Because reserves are just interbank payment clearing tools and never leave the banking sector.

Reserves are reserves. Paper money is a federal reserve note or receipt, not a reserve.

The main impact of QE on the wider economy is the lack of treasury bonds available for money to buy. Since money can't buy treasury bonds (because the central bank has bought so many of them up), money finds its' way into riskier investments, like the stock market, housing market, etc....

Where did all this money come from? 2 places: The Treasury and Private Bank created credit.

It didn't come from the central bank creating reserves, because reserves never leave the banking sector, even when you demand the reserves in your bank account be exchanged for paper money.

And unless you put that paper money under your bed, it too will end up back in a bank, whereupon the central bank will mark up that banks' account with an equal value of reserves.

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don mikulecky's picture

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An idea is not responsible for who happens to be carrying it at the time. It stands or it falls on its own merits.

stupid, no matter who owns them : )

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Steven D's picture

Thanks

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"You can't just leave those who created the problem in charge of the solution."---Tyree Scott

Pluto's Republic's picture

In fact, when including the PBS news programming, they are identical.

Both have plenty of fine programming and talent, but they do maintain an editorial baseline that spins the government narrative.

Nothing wrong with that. It's transparent.

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____________________

The political system is what it is because the People are who they are. — Plato
k9disc's picture

topic.

Katie, I've been following your stuff for a while now, and I just can't seem to get a simple explanation.

We need some good metaphors and some great framing to challenge the conventional wisdom on baseline economics.

I would love to see a bunch of essays here where we try to make sense, in clear and simple terms, of this economic shell game.

We've got some bright people.

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“Tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat.” ~ Sun Tzu

There really does need to be a basic understanding of how our monetary system works if we are to address climate change and rapid ecological collapse in the way we should.

I'd be happy to contribute to whatever you have in mind. What do you have in mind? : )

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k9disc's picture

and metaphor.

Leading questions by our intrepid expert (that's you!). Questions answered and discussed by clever bloggers (that's the rest of us).

All of this with a focus on teasing out metaphors and frames that speak well to the morass that is contemporary economics.

The hard part about economics is wrapping your head around "out of thin air" and balancing the equations with variables that come from that ether. The shit just doesn't make sense.

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“Tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat.” ~ Sun Tzu

k9disc's picture

If you want money. You must have debt.

That debt can either be public or private.

Public Debt -- think Apollo Project, roads, social safety net.

Private Debt -- think cars, credit cards, and houses.

The debt from cars, credit cards, and houses go directly to the banks as assets. The more we spend, the better off banks and banksters become.

The debt from an Apollo Project for renewables is run through the banks, but lead to tangible public assets. The more we spend publicly, the better off we all become.

It's not very well developed, but that's all I got -- all I could come up with. We need to talk about this to come up with metaphor and message that resonates in 21st century America.

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“Tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat.” ~ Sun Tzu

Short and sweet.

Somewhere out in cyberspace there are a few really good, really short, pieces by different folks. It's just a matter of tracking them down - no easy task.

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The out of thin air thing is a problem only because we confuse money, ie, accounting marks, ie, numbers, with the thing - the material, the object - upon which these accounting marks or numbers are printed on.

But once we realize that money is just numbers (accounting marks), then we can get it, as we know that numbers are abstractions that we can represent using symbols like "2", and we can print that "2" on a computer screen, a piece of paper, a clay tablet, or use an abacus as we count.

Or, we can just count in our own head without the need of any sort of material representation.

Of course then there's the aspect of our anxiety about having money, which we rely upon for things like eating, being merely an abstraction. We want it to be solid, like a gold coin.

It's this anxiety of being reliant upon an abstraction to secure our material needs, like eating, that creates the gold bug and their silly assertion that only gold IS money, while all other types of monies are fake, or "funny money".

But we don't just go out and find gold with numbers already stamped into it. We create that stamp, and in doing so we transform gold from being a shiny rock into being money.

It's not the gold that is the money. It's the stamp, which we create out of our ability to think numerically.

Money's an abstraction, plain and simple - always was and always will be.

And there are instances in which we accept this without anxiety: If you agree to sell me your car in exchange for my personal IOU because you know and trust me, what happens?

I sit down and write: "I, Katie, owe you, k9disk, $100.00".

You say: "Ok" and accept my IOU.

Poof - right out of thin air we have created credit, ie, money, ie, a promise. All promises are created out of thin air, and all money is a promise, an IOU.

That promise can be recorded on a piece of paper, a gold coin, or we can just agree to shake on it.

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Money is numbers.

Numbers are abstract.

Money is no object, literally : )

Anyone can create money, the trick is getting others to accept it.

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SnappleBC's picture

Perhaps you could post a few links?

I remember your stuff back from GOS and I remember thinking, "She sure sounds like she knows what she's talking about, but then again, she's talking so far over my head how would I know?"

Even in this case which you've laid out point by point, I'm acutely aware of how many subtleties are in the entire system and ... yeah. But I also remember a handful of really cool videos I've seen dumbing down some incredibly complex topics into [sometimes literally] crayon sketches. Those were very helpful.

And now... as a total tangent... a similar set of videos for those that like to noodle over spacetime Smile

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A lot of wanderers in the U.S. political desert recognize that all the duopoly has to offer is a choice of mirages. Come, let us trudge towards empty expanse of sand #1, littered with the bleached bones of Deaniacs and Hope and Changers.
-- lotlizard

of how the flow of funds are usually thought to work.

I'll also try to find the correct picture.

But give me a while ; )

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elenacarlena's picture

i.e., as if she were Queen Elizabeth. I bet NPR gets her wrong regularly too!

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Please check out Pet Vet Help, consider joining us to help pets, and follow me @ElenaCarlena on Twitter! Thank you.

Hawkfish's picture

Since the debt is held by banks, it sounds like a similar situation.

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We can’t save the world by playing by the rules, because the rules have to be changed.
- Greta Thunberg

I'd have the central bank mark up all students' accounts directly by X amount. The students would have to pay off (or down) their student debts. Those with less debt might have extra dollars still in their account, and those without debt would have even more dollars in their account, which they can spend and help kick start the economy.

To get buy in, I wouldn't mind seeing a requirement that students who get money in their account need to spend X amount of time doing community service of some type.

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RantingRooster's picture

where I can no longer listen to NPR. It's seems they have crossed into the dark side, or I'm just more aware of the obvious BS that comes from their frequency.

QE = free money for TBTFB, main street, not so much....

Drinks

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C99, my refuge from an insane world. #ForceTheVote

which is an unearned good of its' own. I'd love to be relieved of my bad assets ; )

Free money comes in the form of earning dollars on their treasury bonds or on their reserves. We now pay interest on reserves, which means banks get a free lunch for doing the only thing they can do with their extra reserves: Park them at the central bank - because reserves never leave the banking system.

Reserves are checking accounts banks have at our central bank.

Like your checking account at your bank.

I think we should all be able to have access to our national payments system, our central bank. But we don't, only banks do. Now they get payed for being granted the privilege.

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Pluto's Republic's picture

Thanks for taking the time.

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____________________

The political system is what it is because the People are who they are. — Plato

featured economist Ken Rogoff touting his book and plan and idea that cash should be withdrawn from circulation as the society moves to an all digital payment system. No more criminals with their $100 bills. No more inefficient pennies. Perfect monitoring, and taxing, of all transactions. Not so many fourth amendment rights either apparently. They hyped credit cards and smart phone apps but stopped short of RFID chips.
Yes economic literacy lessons stat.

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bygorry

own your deposits in any way.

Right now, you don't own the reserves in your bank account. But you have the right to demand paper money in exchange for the reserves in your bank account. You are allowed to own the paper cash.

A cashless system means you give up the right to own any sort of money.

And sets the stage for bail ins, where your deposits are used to bail out banks, and the potential for bank runs are done away with.

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