Most favorable Clinton exit poll for Early-voters in Cali still off by 23 percent

UPDATE: I quoted a report by Capitol Weekly that stated that the Capitol Weekly / Open California Exit Poll was weighted thusly:

This result is based on at least 21,554 respondents, weighted by geography, party registration, age, ethnicity and gender to match the voters who have already cast ballots as of June 4, according to Political Data Inc. The online version provides a congressional-level breakdown, is weighted to age and will continue to collect survey responses through Election Day, accounting for some variations.

This varies for what was stated about the survey here by Capitol Weekly & CA120 Democratic Absentee Voter Exit Poll:

This Capitol Weekly / Open California Exit Poll utilizes online surveys sent by email to California voters who have been reported by Political Data Inc. as having returned their June 7th Absentee Ballot. Results are intended to reflect the Absentee Voting pool and give insight to trends among voters who participate prior to Election Day.

Open California polling is overseen by Jonathan Brown, Sextant Strategies and Research mailto:jb@sextant-research.com. Data and Dashboard by Paul Mitchell of Political Data Inc mailto:paul@politicaldata.com and Alan Nigel Yan mailto:alanyan@berkeley.edu. Results of surveys will be ongoing through Election Day. The survey of Democratic and Non-Partisan respondents is weighted by age. Non-partisan voters are screened for having obtained a Democratic Presidential ballot.

For more information or updates follow us at http://twiter.com/CA_120

While I am at a loss to explain the difference between the two, based on that statement in Capitol Weekly & CA120 Democratic Absentee Voter Exit Poll, I can only assume the report in Capitol Weekly about its own poll weighting was false, and I must retract the portion of this post that was cited from Capitol Weekly & CA120 Democratic Absentee Voter Exit Poll as it is inaccurate and thus misleading.

My apologies to all.

Steve

* * * *

Even in exit polls with the NY Times seal of approval, Hillary still did way better than expected.

According to a Capitol Weekly early-voter exit poll, Hillary Clinton was leading Bernie Sanders by less than 10% in the Los Angeles area vote-by-mail balloting ahead of last Tuesday. According to results posted to the Los Angeles County website, Clinton was winning vote-by-mail ballots by 66.6-33.4%, for a discrepancy of more than 23%.

The discrepancy cannot be easily explained by demographic factors: the results of the Capitol Weekly exit poll were weighted by age and race. Moreover, the exit poll had 21,000 respondents, and was praised--prior to election night--by mainstream elections journalists, including Nate Cohn of the New York Times.

Twenty-one thousand respondents. That's a very respectable size for the absentee ballots, even for California, if the Washington Post is to be believed. It truly is an astounding coincidence how an exit poll with a sample size that large could be off by 23 percentage points. And one that was specifically weighted to take into consideration age and race, factors that were known to benefit Hillary more than Bernie.

A poll that surveyed absentee voters by sending emails to people known to have returned their June 7th ballot as of June 4, 2016. Not guessed at, not presumed, but people they knew had voted,"weighted by geography, party registration, age, ethnicity and gender to match the voters who have already cast ballots..." That poll was weighted for age. Using such weighting eliminated the effect that younger, male Sanders voters were over-represented in the poll. In other words, they had already adjusted their raw data to account for that.

Indeed, this was the most Clinton-favorable poll of the many that were conducted. All the rest had Clinton leading by only two percent (2%) with margins of error ranging from 4-5 percent. So how could this most-favorable Clinton poll still screw it up that badly? Such a respected polling company, too. I mean I could understand it being off by say 10%, even though that figure would still likely far exceed the poll's margin of error, but 23 percent? That's simply astounding to me.

Exit polls this year really do suck. At least in the Democratic primaries, anyway.

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snark? They ain't off that much. If so, I believe it's an indication of something else perhaps?

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Ya got to be a Spirit, cain't be no Ghost. . .

Explain Bldg #7. . . still waiting. . .

If you’ve ever wondered whether you would have complied in 1930’s Germany,
Now you know. . .
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Steven D's picture

Gotta laugh had how badly they went overboard to win California, don't you?

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"You can't just leave those who created the problem in charge of the solution."---Tyree Scott

lunachickie's picture

All that uhhhhh, excitement, isn't going to deter me completely from keeping up with all these other shenanigans. And my resolve is not lessened by FEAR.

So there's that - thanks for the yank back into current events. 23%? So blatant. SO blatant.

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When she claimed days before California election that she has already won the nomination so confidently. Some people were saying right then that she had already put in place ways to steal votes. In CA Secretary of State site, you can see that Bernie only win a few tiny counties, and almost all the districts went to her. Totally unbelievable.

In fact, one guy raised the doubt from Sacramento county, Bernie rally in Sacramento had about 26,000 attendees, but he only has 56,608 (as of June 10, 2016, 3:54 p.m).

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detroitmechworks's picture

Because those big mean BernieBros will beat them up and take their lunch money.

That's why he paid a million dollars to push his agenda on... oh wait...

I mean, that's why all the news declared him the victor right before the... crap...

That's why he is just a mean poopy head who blames murder on Islam! ...Goddammit Hillary...

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I do not pretend I know what I do not know.

275,000 absentee ballots are still uncounted in LA. There's speculation that the late vote will probably break more heavily for Sanders. Not sure if that will overcome the discrepancy in the exit poll.

http://elections.cdn.sos.ca.gov/statewide-elections/2016-primary/unproce...

256,000 provisionals were also cast in LA, which is a bit odd. e.g. nearly a 1 to 1 ratio of absentee to provisionals, whereas provisionals are usually a fraction of the ballots cast in other counties. e.g. 3 to 1 in San Diego; 10 to 1 in Sacramento; 5 to 1 in Monterrey; 7 to 1 in Sonoma.

A link to the Secretary of State website is here for the most recent count: http://vote.sos.ca.gov/returns/maps/president/party/democratic/

So far the tally has only moved about 1 percentage point in Sanders direction since election night; however, I believe less than one-quarter of the absentee ballots have been counted.

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lunachickie's picture

in the millions. I believe that's a combination of absentee and provisionals. That's a lot of ballots.

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A little over 1.5 million absentee ballots, ~700,000 provisionals and another ~100,000 "other".

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Kurichan's picture

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ZimInSeattle's picture

Exit Polling Poll Democrat vs Republican_zpskqikjoty.jpg

Thanks Steven.

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"Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable." - JFK | "The more I see of the moneyed peoples, the more I understand the guillotine." - G. B. Shaw Bernie/Tulsi 2020

Steven D's picture

Thanks. I can't believe we are faced with a choice between a narcissist who could give a crap about anyone other than himself and a psychopath who only cares about controlling everyone even if it means killing our species in the process.

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"You can't just leave those who created the problem in charge of the solution."---Tyree Scott

orlbucfan's picture

Steven,
I follow and admire your diaries and comments. I'm rec-ing this one. But, calling what's-her-face a "psychopath" is a bit extreme. I dislike and will not vote for her. That said, "sociopath" might be closer to the truth. Rec'd!

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Inner and Outer Space: the Final Frontiers.

Alex Ocana's picture

"Malignant Personality Disorder"

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From the Light House.

Ken in MN's picture

...defined as a lack of empathy, as displayed by her infamous, "We came. We saw. He died." statement about Muammar Gaddafi, which was followed by a disturbing, stereotypical arch villain cackle. (Now I don't go for personal attacks against the Secretary for her appearance or the sound of her voice, or by calling her names, but in this case I was completely astonished and disturbed by that whole incident. It was callous and undignified for a top government official to act so flippantly.)

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I want my two dollars!

Steven D's picture

You are right of course. Had a long day yesterday and read too many Clinton trolls at Booman.

Steve

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"You can't just leave those who created the problem in charge of the solution."---Tyree Scott

Actually you can call her what ever you want. I haven't liked her since the early '90's, and have called her far worse many times since.

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Here's an article from Psychology Today. Yes, sorry to say, clinton fits the definition of a psychopath. I'd like to copy and paste the whole thing but fair use and all and it's rather long. Here are the discussed topics.
Uncaring - check "The PCL describes psychopaths as being callous and showing a lack of empathy, traits which the PPI describes as “coldheartedness.”
Shallow Emotions- check, check 'Psychopaths, and to a degree, sociopaths, show a lack of emotion, especially the social emotions, such as shame, guilt, and embarrassment"
Irresponsibility - check. I especially like this one "“blame externalization,” i.e. they blame others for events that are actually their fault" "But Colin Powell did it too!!!"
Insincere Speech - check, check “untruthfulness” and “insincerity,” to outright “pathological lying,” there is a trend toward devaluing speech among psychopaths by inflating and distorting it toward selfish ends" She can't get through one speech without lying about something for her own selfish ends. About the bold, think Bosnia.
Over Confidence - check, check,
Narrowing of Attention - ? maybe
Selfishness - check
Inability to plan for the future - check. Think email server.
Violence - Hell yes. She doesn't engage in it directly but she sure as hell has no qualms about ordering violence upon others. Here's a video of an interview with Fox I hadn't seen concerning her "We came, We saw, He Died" chuckle. IMO, it's worse.

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CaptainPoptart's picture

The 1% no longer even pretends to hold a real election. The voter fraud is right out there in the open and their attitude is "So what are you going to do about it, sue us?"

Bernie was right about the need for a revolution. He is wrong however that it should be a peaceful one. It's time to set up the guillotine.

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I'd rather learn from one bird how to sing than teach ten thousand stars how not to dance. - e.e.cummings

Ken in MN's picture

Violence begets violence, and I will not be a party to that. So what are we going to do about it? Never give up. Keep working for change. And NEVER give the State an easy excuse to perpetrate mass violence against the people...

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I want my two dollars!

Alphalop's picture

is the only solution available.

Non violent protest can work, but in order for it to do so there needs to be others that take notice of the protests and force their officials to rectify the situation. That was why Gandhi's efforts were so successful.

It wasn't because his group of pacifists managed to force their oppressors to see how shitty they were, it took outside pressure that was generated by the attention that the his tactics warranted.

It always takes pressure, be it from without or within. So far they have ignored all the pressure from within. Riot's? Forgotten. Highway shutdowns? Ignored and dismissed. Etc. Etc. Etc. The only way we can invoke enough pressure from within is to have such actions go on for weeks and months not hours or days, and there seems to be little interest, at least at this point, from most Americans to do so.

So who is going to pressure the United States to do the right thing by it's people?

It is a shitty, horrible fact that when corruption and oppression reach the levels that they have on the scale that they now encompass generally the only thing that has ever worked was violence inducing enough fear the in oppressors to cause them to capitulate.

Is it the direction I want to go? Absolutely not. Nor do I think it is too late to avoid.

But at some time we may reach a point where there are no other avenues or approaches are left.

If such a time does come, what do we do? Just lay down and die?

Sorry, not me. If I am gonna go down I am gonna take at least a few of the bastards that are destroying me along for the ride.

I just sincerely hope it never comes to that.

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"I used to vote Republican & Democrat, I also used to shit my pants. Eventually I got smart enough to stop doing both things." -Me

Ken in MN's picture

...the Dillon Roof, and Wade Michael Page, and Anders Behring Breivik? They all saw great injustices to their world view and decided that violence was the only answer. Fuck that! We're better than that!

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I want my two dollars!

ZimInSeattle's picture

But at some time we may reach a point where there are no other avenues or approaches are left.

It all depends when and if they have reached a point in their view that violence is the only thing that will allow them to maintain the status quo.

Leaving us at my sig line...

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"Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable." - JFK | "The more I see of the moneyed peoples, the more I understand the guillotine." - G. B. Shaw Bernie/Tulsi 2020

Cant Stop the Macedonian Signal's picture

And it would be a crazy choice, anyway, because the establishment so clearly has prepared for that course of action, and, indeed, often seems to want it. Bill Clinton, for instance, can't seem to get through a speech without talking about how people like us really want to murder people on Wall St. I wish the bastard would leave me out of his sick fantasy life, but he's not alone. A lot of rich people, and their primary servants in the political and media elite, keep trying to portray those objecting to their rotten behavior as violent, and they, in fact, seem badly to want us to actually go for our guns.

If they were worried about us shooting people, they wouldn't make it so damned easy to do.

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"More for Gore or the son of a drug lord--None of the above, fuck it, cut the cord."
--Zack de la Rocha

"I tell you I'll have nothing to do with the place...The roof of that hall is made of bones."
-- Fiver

Alphalop's picture

I think the underling motives and situation are important.

If it comes to the a point where the people are rioting in the streets and being killed because they have nothing else to lose and are already being killed either by police or by poison then yes, in that case a violent reaction may be the only action possible.

If it degenerates to the point where the federal government has to use tanks and jets to keep it's citizenry in line than it loses all legitimacy and will collapse.

I don't think anyone wants that, but at some point you have to acknowledge that violent reaction is indeed warranted when it's the only one remaining.

The sig line from the other poster is much more concise way of saying what I was trying to express so verbosely. Smile

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"I used to vote Republican & Democrat, I also used to shit my pants. Eventually I got smart enough to stop doing both things." -Me

Cant Stop the Macedonian Signal's picture

(I think he did manage to shame some of them), that wouldn't work now. The British Empire, or at least a lot of its servants and advocates, actually believed they were moral and doing good for the world. It was a lie, of course, but they genuinely believed it. They were self-deluded, self-serving tyrants--but not all of them were sociopaths, for whom morality itself was a joke.

We're dealing now with sociopaths who think that not only morality, but law, representative government, government at all, really, except as a convenient trading post for favors amongst elites, ARE ALL JOKES. We're dealing w/people who don't care that we're looking at 80% extinction if we don't make major changes. And I'm including 80% of homo sapiens in that number.

Holding up a mirror to them doesn't help.
Pleading our case doesn't help.

There are things short of violence that could help. I'd like to try them.

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"More for Gore or the son of a drug lord--None of the above, fuck it, cut the cord."
--Zack de la Rocha

"I tell you I'll have nothing to do with the place...The roof of that hall is made of bones."
-- Fiver

CaptainPoptart's picture

Didn't think the idea of the guillotine would be actually taken seriously. But the rest of the comment was meant to suggest that we need to do more than just sign petitions and write blog posts.

Hitting the streets like OWS was more of what l had in mind. If enough of us take this type of tactic to Philly, it will have as much impact as the people working on a platform that no one will pay any attention to five minutes after it is adopted. It's what changed the rules in '68, not the committees in the convention.

All the major gains we've made in political and social justice this century were powered by people demonstrating in the streets. We need to also take our protests there.

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I'd rather learn from one bird how to sing than teach ten thousand stars how not to dance. - e.e.cummings

Alphalop's picture

Hitting the streets like OWS was more of what l had in mind.

Because we need to be mentally and emotionally prepared and know what we are going to do if/when the state unleashes violence on us like they did on occupy. How do we react? Do we sit there passively when they apply burning agents to our eyes with a q-tip?
It's important that we talk this stuff out now if we want it to be effective and not devolve into a riot situation.

For any action to be effective at this point it is going to have to be large in scale and long in duration or the media will downplay it or outright ignore it completely.

For that to work it's gonna take logistics and planning and lots and lots of support. We will need to make sure that we have the ability to procure necessary supplies for the duration.

I was thinking about those idiots that took over that federal property recently. The Feds kinda set a precedence there.

Say a group was to engage in a long standing occupy movement, they let those idiots go back and forth to the damn grocery stores without interference, and if they tried to interfere with supply delivery for our side we could certainly spin the narrative of, "Oh, so if we were far right wingers you would let us have life sustaining supplies, but since we are not it's ok to starve us out?"

I want to succeed, but I also want us to be realistic about what is involved and what the potential outcomes could be.

People are more desperate now I think then they were then, I know I am, and desperate people can do desperate, and often wrong, things.

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"I used to vote Republican & Democrat, I also used to shit my pants. Eventually I got smart enough to stop doing both things." -Me

Ken in MN's picture

...and I agree with the everything that came before that part...

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I want my two dollars!

TPTB, all think that after Clinton is crowned that the progressive movement will just fold up and fade away. We are to vote for the lesser (?) of two evils and STFU. Wouldn't be awesome and troubling for the DNC even though Bernie may or may not be nuetralized rallies are held and the people show up for progressive values. Bernie says that it is not him, it is the American people.
I really do not know how rallies could be organized and held and financially supported, but I would be there walker and all.
An ongoing movement will have to be careful of FBI, CIA, and other forces that will try to sabotage progress including promoting violence. I just pray that we can find progressive leaders who can lead us forward.

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Greyhound's picture

Voter fraud is still an offence in search of significance. As for violence, that will always be their first response to any demand we make.

"Power concedes nothing without a demand. It never did and it never will. Find out just what any people will quietly submit to and you have found out the exact measure of injustice and wrong which will be imposed upon them, and these will continue till they are resisted with either words or blows, or with both. The limits of tyrants are prescribed by the endurance of those whom they oppress." - Frederick Douglass

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mjsmeme's picture

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Wink's picture

by 20 points neither. Ten, maybe. Twenty, no fucking way.

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the little things you can do are more valuable than the giant things you can't! - @thanatokephaloides. On Twitter @wink1radio. (-2.1) All about building progressive media.

Steven D's picture

In a fair fight. But this was never going to be far, was it. Not with C,into nor a Bush up for the Big Enchilda.

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"You can't just leave those who created the problem in charge of the solution."---Tyree Scott

ZimInSeattle's picture

he would have wiped the floor with Hillary a long time ago. And they know it. Thus all the election fraud. It's like we're living in the Twilight Zone. Video of Lee Camp saying that the chances 23 primaries exit polling being so far off, a TRILLION to 1. Now, I'm no mathematician, but that seems like as sure as the sun will rise in the morning that there's been rampant election fraud in favor of Clinton.

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"Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable." - JFK | "The more I see of the moneyed peoples, the more I understand the guillotine." - G. B. Shaw Bernie/Tulsi 2020

ThoughtfulVoter's picture

Scott Hunt did video documentation, specific to California. Many of you may have already seen this as it was from June 9, but I just discovered it so thought I'd share.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MoGeDGHmwJU

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ZimInSeattle's picture

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"Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable." - JFK | "The more I see of the moneyed peoples, the more I understand the guillotine." - G. B. Shaw Bernie/Tulsi 2020

Shockwave's picture

Many Berners are volunteering to watch the count by going to their county registrars.

What I learned observing the vote count at LA County Registrar today (yes, they're open Sunday)

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The political revolution continues

I was at the house of Bob Fitrakis for one of their Saturday Salons when they went over the video of Karl Rove calling the OH election within minuets of the same time of night as he had called the 2004 election.

Bob is one of the leading voices in election integrity and part of the suit about the primary election.

There was a difference. In 2004, at the time that Rove called the election, all of a sudden the results from around the state of OH changed dramatically to W Bush. Bob has called the 2004 election in OH the worst in US history. There was an FBI investigation after the election but Karl Rove sent a buddy to shut down the investigation and a key whistle blower died in a plane crash.

In 2012, Bob got documents and published articles in the Columbus Free Press that went national. Someone leaked the documents to Bob in his role as a journalist. One of the documents described untested software that was going to be inserted into the tabulating machines right before the election. The second leak was about one of Romney's sons who had a financial interest in voting machines.

They filed a suit to stop the election in OH before election day. It was not granted. But out of no where, a newly retired, 35 year employee of NSA, showed up to be a witness for the court case. And there were many, hundreds perhaps, of FBI agents around the state watching the election.

Karl Rove looked stupid in is proclamation of a win and Obama went on to win very strongly.

Before the election, Bob who is not out for either party, informed the democratic party that 300,000 voters had been stripped from the rolls in OH. A representative from the Obama campaign spent a lot of time sleeping on Bob's couch and getting those people back on the voter rolls.

The voting machines in OH are owned by a right wing religious family. And the software is proprietary.

Here is a book review of their new book

Book Review: Bob Fitrakis and Harvey Wasserman, THE STRIP & FLIP SELECTION OF 2016: Five Jim Crows & Electronic Election Theft

Note the word in the title: not "election" but "selection" -- Hillary has been selected and we hope not elected

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hester's picture

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Don't believe everything you think.

I really like the Sane Progressive on YouTube. Tomorrow, 06/15/2016, she is doing a google hangout with Mr. Fritakis.

Here is her channel.

Justice Served is a new channel that has Cliff Arnebeck, Bob Fitrakis, and Peter B. Collins, and others...right here.
the only videos on the channel are about the lawsuit over election fraud. They also have a facebook page here,

I'm not sure whether they have their website up yet. I've been lazy today.

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'Well, I've wrestled with reality for thirty five years, Doctor, and I’m happy to state I finally won out over it." Elwood P. Dowd "

There is no doubt here and the guy who died in the plane crash had the proof and the NSA knows it

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Lookout's picture

and has been going on for awhile.

As of yesterday 2.3 million CA votes remain uncounted
http://elections.cdn.sos.ca.gov/statewide-elections/2016-primary/unproce...

According to this iffy source some counties are flipping to Bernie
http://www.inquisitr.com/3193693/california-counts-millions-of-provision...

This is a 30 min public presentation by Greg Palast who reviews election theft in the US since 2000. I thought it was great, and I'm grateful for his efforts. He works his way up to 2016 and explains how the rethugs plan to steal your vote in Nov.

[video:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OpJOpctkFQM]

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“Until justice rolls down like water and righteousness like a mighty stream.”