Last word on the Brexit Apocalypse

As recently as a month ago every major bank in London was predicting a recession because of the Brexit vote.
Government agencies predicted even worse.

A June 17 article in Business Insider — a week before the Brexit vote — showed government agencies, the OECD, British Treasury and a handful of private think tanks predicting that Brexit would cost Britain's economy from -7.9% to -2% of its GDP by 2030.
Responding to such uniformly scary predictions, the media got busy. " 'Brexit' could send shock waves across U.S. and global economy," was how a Washington Post headline put it. And a month before the vote, the BBC carried a headline saying, "IMF says Brexit 'pretty bad to very, very bad.'

Then the actual economic reports began to come out.
First it was the manufacturing sector.

The closely watched Markit/Cips report recorded the joint biggest monthly increase in industry’s performance in the 25-year history of the purchasing managers’ index (PMI), taking it to its highest level since last October.

Then it was the service sector.

Services sector shows biggest EVER monthly rise defying gloomy predictions over the impact of the EU referendum
A key survey found there was a record jump in business activity last month after a dip in the immediate aftermath of the vote to leave the EU.
The 'PMI' index for August rose to 52.9 from 47.4 in July.

Then it was the real estate market.

Knight Frank's Prime Central London Sales Index for August revealed the increase in interest since the European Union referendum compared to 2015. Buyers’ interests in the area are growing despite the dramatization of Brexit, with users viewing listings online 20.8 percent more since last year.

Then today it was the labour market.

The unemployment rate was 4.9%, down from 5.5% a year ago and little changed from last month's rate, Office for National Statistics (ONS) data shows.
Nearly three quarters of people who can work have jobs, a record high rate.
Employment was "resilient" before and after the EU vote, despite predictions of an economic shock, analysts said.

Plus retail sales and business confidence remained strong.

So finally, two of those banks threw in the towel and admitted that there won't be a Brexit recession, or Brecession.

Basically the neoliberal establishment and the political center-left has been wrong on this issue at every level.
I'm guessing that people at TOP aren't aware of this fact, nor will they care because everyone who disagrees with them on this is a racist.

The silver-lining in this whole charade is that it served a valuable purpose.

Newly leaked emails show how a key U.K. architect of the Iraq War expressed relief that the Brexit vote to leave the European Union would reduce media coverage of the devastating results of an inquiry into the United Kingdom’s role in the war.
On July 4, former British Foreign Secretary Jack Straw emailed former U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell to discuss the upcoming release of the Chilcot report — a document detailing the British government’s inquiry. The report probed, among other things, the depth of private British commitment and support for the American-led war in Iraq.
In anticipation of coming press coverage, Straw asked Powell to review a statement in a Word document he drafted. He wrote that the “only silver lining of the Brexit vote is that it will reduce medium term attention on Chilcot — though it will not stop the day of publication being uncomfortable.”

Glad we could help.

One final note, a much more important event, one that will have actual consequences, will be approaching soon - Italexit.

Italy has been in a crisis for at least eight months, though mainstream media did not recognize it until July. This crisis has nothing to do with Brexit, although opponents of Brexit will claim it does. Even if Britain had voted to stay in the EU, the Italian crisis would still have been gathering speed.
The high level of non-performing loans (NPLs) has been a problem since before Brexit. It is clear that there is nothing in the Italian economy that can reduce them. Only a dramatic improvement in the economy would make it possible to repay these loans. And Europe’s economy cannot improve drastically enough to help. We have been in crisis for quite a while.
Banks were simply carrying loans as non-performing that were actually in default and discounting the NPLs rather than writing them off. But that only hid the obvious. As much as 17 percent of Italy’s loans will not be repaid. This will crush Italian banks’ balance sheets. And this will not only be in Italy.
Italian loans are packaged and resold, and Italian banks take loans from other European banks. These banks in turn have borrowed against Italian debt. Since Italy is the fourth largest economy in Europe, this is the mother of all systemic threats.
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thanatokephaloides's picture

...... a Europe with Germany (or more accurately, German banks) calling the shots just flat doesn't work -- period.

Nations like Italy and Greece are sick of suffering ever harsher austerity so German and Belgian bankers can just get richer. And that is now showing some serious consequences.

Some caution is called for here, though. Although the British People have voted to Brexit, the actual Brexit hasn't been started yet, Only Parliament can do that -- and it hasn't. It hasn't even resolved the sticking issue of Scotland insisting on remaining in the EU regardless of English actions. The real impact of Brexit will only be known if and when Britain actually decides to, well, either shit or get off the pot.

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"US govt/military = bad. Russian govt/military = bad. Any politician wanting power = bad. Anyone wielding power = bad." --Shahryar

"All power corrupts absolutely!" -- thanatokephaloides

The real impact of Brexit will only be known if and when Britain actually decides to, well, either shit or get off the pot.

But by that time no one in America will care.

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dance you monster's picture

A number of the stats you cite here are not measuring Brexit, which hasn't actually happened yet, but patterns that predated Brexit. Or they are reflecting reactions to the realization that Brexit will come some couple of years down the road. There's also the scramble that took place at Central Banks around the globe to reverse the immediate panic that the Brexit vote brought, and that may be much of what we are seeing in these stats, too (it's why the stock markets are back up).

I have no measurable idea what Brexit will bring, though it's probably safe to say it will have an effect on the economy when the split actually takes place.

Taking heart in the reversal of expectations from one month to the next seems just a bit premature to me. So did the prognostications of doom from Wall Street in the first hours after the vote.

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the wife was just watching a video of Obama with his little chart saying how good things are here. He said income has risen all across the board except for those at the very top. Well whoop dee fucking do. Poor bastards are probably going to have to get their public assistance raised..
And this.

I'm guessing that people at TOP aren't aware of this fact, nor will they care because everyone who disagrees with them on this is a racist.

Don't forget white male privilege and sexist....

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link

To repeat: “racist, sexist, homophobic, xenophobic, Islamophobic.”

Those are all potent words. Or once were. The racism of the Jim Crow era was ugly, physically cruel and murderous. Today, progressives output these words as reflexively as a burp. What’s more, the left enjoys calling people Islamophobic or homophobic. It’s bullying without personal risk.
...
Her supporters say it’s Donald Trump’s rhetoric that is “divisive.” Just so. But it’s rich to hear them claim that their words and politics are “inclusive.” So is the town dump. They have chopped American society into so many offendable identities that only a Yale freshman can name them all.

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1] Nothing has changed since the vote Britain are still part of the EU but without any input, article 50 has not been applied for as yet.
2] The vote has given our xenophobes and racists here in France as well some perceived justification for their bigotry.
3] The left is useless in Europe, sorry, worse than useless. The right alone will profit.
4] If Brexit occurs it will probably not be before the next GE which the Tories will win in a landslide after the current gerrymandering process is applied. 650MPs down to 600 and most of those going are in Labour areas. Labour are dead and buried in their one time fortress of Scotland.
5] The English have decided to put their trust in the Tories and can wave goodbye to most of the NHS and social programs.
6] Research grants that fuel European Science and Engineering programs will die out in the UK if Brexit occurs the Tories will not replace them.
7] The Tories will sign on to TTIP as fast as they can get their pens out once the back of the queue is reached.
8] The EU has been wrecked by both sides in this.

PS
I am in favour of the EU with some major reform, freedom of movement is essential for the future.

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The UK vote was one of protest than anything else, they ended up shocking themselves, the Tory politicians were delighted.

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Sorry, but you sound like you've swallowed the fearmongering koolaid.
I say this because everything you just listed is what I saw on TOP.

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remember it all the neoliberals were screaming before the vote how this would destroy the known universe. I'm looking at you too John Oliver. The vote itself and it's implications were enough to cause chaos. It didn't happen.

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But the case has not been made for it.

And the people who predicted an immediate Brexit Apocalypse should not get away with changing their predictions to "no, really. It's still coming. Trust us."

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we all know sooner or later we're going to have another major recession or worse. It will happen regardless of Brexit. But you can bet your ass the neolibs, at least in Europe will be pointing the finger at Brexit....

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But if the next financial crash originates from the Eurozone, the Brexit-haters are going to have a hard time convincing people of that.

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k9disc's picture

They've had the pedal to the metal for a decade now. "Zero inflation".

If there's been no inflation over that time, my ass is a banjo.

It's coming. Its not "if" it's when...

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“Tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat.” ~ Sun Tzu

The British have a huge advantage compared to the Greeks and the Italians. The British government borrows in its own currency. Greek and Italian debt is denominated in Euros.

The Euro is basically a conspiracy to allow Germany to trade internationally in a currency that, for Germany, is substantially undervalued. The Euro is substantially overvalued for Italy and Greece, making exports difficult.

The Euro also provides cover as the German government uses taxpayer money to bail out German banks. Over 95% of the Euros in the so called Greek bailout in fact went to German banks, but the Greeks are a convenient target for the wrath of German voters.

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Would just add as a point of clarification: Borrowing in ones' own currency = Providing savings accounts for the currency you create at will.

For the U.S. and U.K., etc.... but not for the euro zone, bonds are just savings accounts at the central bank.

We could stop issuing bonds tomorrow and still create dollars and pounds.

Under the gold standard, dollars were convertible into gold. Bonds were not. This is what made them different.

Now bonds are just like cash with a future face value that pays interest now.

Sort of like a CD, or any other time deposit. If you have a CD, your bank is not borrowing from you, but opening up a savings account for you.

The only difference between cash and a bond is that cash is immediately liquid, while bonds have to be converted into dollars (by selling them) to be liquid.

But since demand for bonds (a savings account at our central bank) exceeds how many bonds there are, it's easy to sell them, so they're nearly as liquid as cash.

The dollars to invest in a bond -- to open up a savings account -- comes from government spending.

The spending must come first.

The "borrowing" comes later.

In a sense the government "borrows" back the dollars it spends -- first. As treasury's account is marked up whenever a bond is sold.

But this is just the result of a law, which we could change tomorrow. And has nothing to do with actually funding the government, as the government creates the dollars out of thin air that we use to invest in bonds (that we then can decide to save at our central bank).

Even China must first earn dollars before it too can open a savings account at our central bank.

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k9disc's picture

other than public and private? is it just volatility/risk?

Or is there another mechanical process, or other mechanical angles that separate stocks and bonds?

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“Tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat.” ~ Sun Tzu

to say that bonds are a savings account, guaranteed by the government.

Stocks are owning a little piece of a corporation, with higher risk - the corp could go under.

Treasury spends both dollars and bonds - bonds being cash with a future face value that pays interest now. So, what treasury is doing is spending to fund interest on your saved up dollars, thus injecting new dollars into the private sector.

Thus treasury is creating new money - when it promises to create new dollars to pay interest.

Corporations are not creating money when they sell stocks. They are selling a little ownership in the corporation.

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Katie is discussing US government bonds compared with stocks. US savings bonds are really certificates of deposit for money given to the government. After the first 6 (I think) months you can redeem them to the government for full principal and at least a portion of the interest accrued. The government has to accept them. You can't sell them to anyone else. There is a penalty for withdrawing early. It is steep in the first years.

Then you have savings turned over to the government in the form of Treasury notes, bills and bonds, the label determined by the length of the obligation. Until the end date the government has no obligation to redeem such an instrument. You can sell it to some one else. The value can change as interest rates change. If interest rates go up, your bond is worth less because people could buy another bond and receive the higher rate. If interest rates fall your bond is worth more.

Then you have corporate bonds. Corporations issue debt for a variety of reasons. You have interest rate risk as for treasuries. You also have default risk. A corporation could file for bankruptcy and be relieved of repaying a bond or part of a bond (default). Bond owners have rights to the assets of the corporation under these circumstances. Bonds are rated more or less continuously. Ratings change if the health of the corporation changes. The value goes up when a bond's rating goes up and down when the rating goes down.

The above are all debt instruments. An equity share of stock theoretically makes you the owner of a small piece of the company. You are entitled to participate in the growth of the value of the corporation. It may offer dividends. A share of stock at any moment is worth what someone else will pay for it. A corporation can go bankrupt. The maximum loss to shareholders is the value of the shares they own. Thus you have the limited liability corporation or LLC.

There is an elaborate structure do determine which obligations of a corporation are subordinate to others, i.e. what happens when a corporation can't meet all of its obligations. Simplifying as much as possible, the obligation to bond holders is near the top. Obligations to shareholders are subordinate to almost everything else.

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Wink's picture

Once Italy Italexits France will soon follow with a Frexit of their own.

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the little things you can do are more valuable than the giant things you can't! - @thanatokephaloides. On Twitter @wink1radio. (-2.1) All about building progressive media.

a stark and startling illustration of what happens in a nation with an effective duopoly when the "left" party moves to the right of center, and the ordinary folk have a credible, viable, high profile, 3rd choice.

In the notation of the SAT analogies test, "Scotland : Labour :: California : Democrats". What's missing is the answer to, "Scotland : SNP :: California : ??"

If a 3rd party in California could just reach whatever critical level it is that triggers "electoral viability", the Democrats would soon enough be in a life-or-death struggle with the Republicans to be the #2 party in California.

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The earth is a multibillion-year-old sphere.
The Nazis killed millions of Jews.
On 9/11/01 a Boeing 757 (AA77) flew into the Pentagon.
AGCC is happening.
If you cannot accept these facts, I cannot fake an interest in any of your opinions.

what happens in a nation with an effective duopoly when the "left" party moves to the right of center, and the ordinary folk have a credible, viable, high profile, 3rd choice

Fortunately there is now Corbyn.

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Well done!

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The earth is a multibillion-year-old sphere.
The Nazis killed millions of Jews.
On 9/11/01 a Boeing 757 (AA77) flew into the Pentagon.
AGCC is happening.
If you cannot accept these facts, I cannot fake an interest in any of your opinions.

Mussolini's coup was in 1922, which as I count on my fingers and toes works out to 94 years. It was a mess during WWI, and after the Risorgimento, during the Risorgimento, and before the Risorgimento.

Maybe one could even make a case that Italy was an organizational disaster before, during, and after Roman rule.

Or even further back than that. It is rumored that the defeated Trojans wanted a Roman Holiday after the Greeks greeked them.

And what about Otzi?

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Vowing To Oppose Everything Trump Attempts.

Not Henry Kissinger's picture

has made Britain a more competitive exporter and cheaper tourist destination.

“Though the weaker pound following the referendum was initially unwelcome news, it has proved perfect timing for tourists visiting the UK; enjoying our British leisure, luxury and cultural offering during the summer season,” Gordon Clark, Global Blue managing director UK, said.

Sterling dropped from above $1.45 to below $1.30 where it has since leveled out.

A lot of the positive economic new flows from that.

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The current working assumption appears to be that our Shroedinger's Cat system is still alive. But what if we all suspect it's not, and the real problem is we just can't bring ourselves to open the box?

Bollox Ref's picture

British leisure, luxury and cultural offering

You can't beat a night in with a Korma, a few pints of Stella and the footie on TV. Up the Spurs!

(Rough translation)

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Gëzuar!!
from a reasonably stable genius.

Not Henry Kissinger's picture

"Don't take your pint into the loo!"

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The current working assumption appears to be that our Shroedinger's Cat system is still alive. But what if we all suspect it's not, and the real problem is we just can't bring ourselves to open the box?

Bollox Ref's picture

Don't go to the loo.

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Gëzuar!!
from a reasonably stable genius.

to America when the revolt failed. Back in the 1890's.

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I've seen lots of changes. What doesn't change is people. Same old hairless apes.

Song of the lark's picture

When it gets serious you have to lie". J C Juncker. Thanks for keeping up on brexit aftermath . Also it's not helping that 3000 migrants from North Africa land on Italian chores every week.

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Bollox Ref's picture

(see The Constitution.......laws passed by Parliament).

Given that Brexit hasn't actually been initiated, I'm beginning to think that everyone hopes that the vote never really happened in the first place, and that with a good cup of tea, it'll be ignored, whatever Juncker says, and we'll just carry on. Sort of a member of the EU.

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Gëzuar!!
from a reasonably stable genius.

The Brits have made muddling through an art form.

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That was how British citizens got through WW2 bombing runs and parachutists. If you can muddle through that sort of thing with a stiff upper lip somehow not interfering with your smiles and jokes, you can muddle through just about anything, I should think.

Edit: that, and rationing, which went on for years afterward as well...

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Psychopathy is not a political position, whether labeled 'conservatism', 'centrism' or 'left'.

A tin labeled 'coffee' may be a can of worms or pathology identified by a lack of empathy/willingness to harm others to achieve personal desires.