Irma Watch

Submitted by WoodsDweller on Sat, 09/02/2017 - 11:05pm

Let's all hope that Irma stays far from shore.

Hurricane Irma Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
1100 PM AST Sat Sep 02 2017

LOCATION...18.3N 46.2W
ABOUT 1030 MI...1655 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES

Wunderground

September 2, 2017, 1:22 PM
... Irma's peak winds have been fluctuating in intensity between 110 – 120 mph winds (near the boundary of Category 2 and 3 strength) since Friday ... This may mean that Irma is progressing towards becoming an “annular” hurricane; these type of hurricanes are more resistant to wind shear and dry air, and weaken only slowly in adverse conditions. ...
Through Monday, wind shear is predicted by SHIPS to remain very favorable for development—mostly a low 5 - 10 knots. Beginning on Monday, though, upper-level winds out of the northwest will begin creating moderate wind shear of 10 – 20 knots, and these less favorable conditions are expected to last into the middle of the week. Given Irma’s well-developed core and emerging annular structure, I expect that this modest wind shear will not keep Irma from intensifying. Beginning on Sunday, Irma will encounter warmer SSTs, with a major increase in total heat content, and on Monday, mid-level relative humidity will start to rise. These favorable conditions for development should allow Irma to strengthen. If the storm can develop upper-level outflow channels to both the north and the south, intensification into a high-end Category 4 storm or stronger may occur, late in the week. ...
Irma could affect the Leeward Islands beginning on Tuesday, and it will need to be watched as a potentially significant threat to the U.S. and The Bahamas in 6 to 12 days. ...

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Submitted by eyo on Sun, 09/03/2017 - 5:05am

Wishcasting allowed? Howzabout hijacking the whole essay

Let's all hope that Irma stays far from shore.

Wunderground commentariat frown upon hope over science, so thanks for a place to put mine. Yes, stay away Irma! The threat is for "late in the week" plenty of time for those who can, to prepare. I wish she would stay off the islands too, stay away Irma! Get cold and shrivel down. Begone! That is called "wishcasting", wish off Irma! .
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Meanwhile way out west I am fried with heat sickness, it has finally cooled to 84 inside and out, at 2am or so. 117 on the outdoor thermo this afternoon, it's always about 3 above whatever nearest weather station reports. Cloverdale topped at 114.4. Steve Miller Band "Abracadabra" ear worm over and over "I heat up, I can't cool down, you got me spinning 'round and 'round." Heat whirlies, the air is terrible outside but the moon is really pretty. Heat, Smoke, and Fire Assault Western States: All-Time Record Heat in California

Pretty sure Jimmy Dore will have something to say about La Tuna, Burbank's wildfire of the month.

Thanks WoodsDweller, sorry I don't have more to say about Irma. What can we do but learn, in the face of such disaster? I don't know. I don't feel prepared or resilient. Late stage capitalism sucks, but here we are. "Wherever you go, there you are."

peace

P.S. I miss that guy who answered the Presidential Debate question "What is the biggest threat to National Security?", "Climate Change"! Where is that guy? Or anybody with a mic to drop? Bueller? lol

Submitted by orlbucfan on Sun, 09/03/2017 - 8:15am

That sounds like a Bernie Sanders answer.

A YUGE reason why I supported and campaigned for him is that he always talks about the world security threat climate change poses. @eyo , hope you are okay. What's the latest on Burbank? Right now, we Floridians are starting to watch Irma. I follow Masters and WU. Their regulars in the area of the Lesser Antilles are preparing. Irma reminds me a little of Andrew(gawd forbid). Hope central FL is spared. Rec'd!!

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Inner and Outer Space: the Final Frontiers.

Submitted by eyo on Mon, 09/04/2017 - 3:18am

Local emergency declared as wildfire burns out of control

@orlbucfan @orlbucfan Yes that was Bernie, thank you for noticing! This guy:

Bernie Sanders Press Conference on Climate Change in Modesto, California [CC]

For more lulz I went and looked at DK on the Wayback Machine that day: https://web.archive.org/web/20151013102612/http://www.dailykos.com:80/ Wow, that is classic. I am different now, thanks goodness. Bernie can pick back up the Climate Change mic any time now, I am ready. Anybody with a big mic is welcome, in my view.
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Back to La Tuna: 3 homes lost, 2 firefighters hurt

10% contained late Saturday. Evacuations were lifted in Burbank but remain in effect in Glendale and Los Angeles.
...
Firefighters were hoping for some relief overnight from a heat wave that has gripped much of the state for days. Temperatures were expected to cool somewhat Sunday, with a chance of some showers and lightning due to the remains of Tropical Storm Linda. But it will still be hot and humid, according to the National Weather Service, with temperatures in downtown L.A. reaching into the 90s.

peace

Edit: Typo in the storm name above, it was Lidia not Linda, and they only had a day or two notice is how it looks to me. Of course I can imagine these storms coming north, it is all one California in my mind.
http://mexiconewsdaily.com/news/7-dead-4000-victims-in-lidias-aftermath/

Interior Secretary Miguel Ángel Osorio Chong compared the deluge brought by Lidia to Hurricane Harvey, saying the quantity of water that inundated Los Cabos was “almost the same as . . . Texas.”

He also said there were 13 people still unaccounted for. Many residents have used social networks to seek information and help to locate loved ones.

Other damage caused by Lidia included the collapse of one bridge and the closure of another while two buildings in Cabo San Lucas collapsed. Dozens of vehicles were swept away in strong currents.

Back to you Irma. fck

Submitted by orlbucfan on Sun, 09/03/2017 - 10:25am

You take care and stay safe!! As bad as hurricanes are,

wildfires are worse! @eyo

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Inner and Outer Space: the Final Frontiers.

Submitted by eyo on Sun, 09/03/2017 - 10:53am

Thanks and good thoughts your way too,

@orlbucfan and to all east coasters, may calm prevail and all stay safe and dry. I am in the middle of the state where it is called "Northern California" don't ask me why. Nothing exists north of the state capitol? Oregon:

She said business has been down in the town near the California border.

“Businesses are closing because they don’t have their help,” Snow said. “People have been evacuating.”
...
The poor air quality has caused the cancellation of some performances at the Oregon Shakespeare Festival in Ashland and the Cycle Oregon Classic Ride, a 400-mile bicycle event this month.
...
Smoke from wildfires in British Columbia pushed down into western Washington in August, choking the region and prompting health officials to warn the Seattle area that children, the elderly and people with respiratory problems should stay inside.

Jerry Brown went to China for cap and trade. Maybe he should go to OR, WA, B.C., and down to MX too. First Chevron station now open in Sonora

The president of Onexpo, a gas station trade organization, agrees that gas prices are unlikely to come down.

Instead, Luis Horacio Muñoz said that the point of difference offered by Chevron is a fuel additive called Techron.
...
A Chevron official said the company plans to open a new station every week between now and the end of the year in Sonora, Sinaloa and Baja California.
...

I guess Condaleeza Rice is happy about that. Plus, Russia is BAD again, wasn't that her specialty? Awful.

Submitted by Wink on Sun, 09/03/2017 - 10:15am

or sinks Mara Lago. n/t

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the little things you can do are more valuable than the giant things you can't! - @thanatokephaloides. On Twitter @wink1radio. (-2.1) All about building progressive media.

Submitted by Lily O Lady on Sun, 09/03/2017 - 11:35am

Meanwhile in Georgia which has sent more than one

person to Trump's cabinet, we are having a rather cool end of summer with highs in the low 70s to 80s many days. We are not experiencing drought either although Lake Lanier, Atlanta's water supply, is still not at full summer pool. At my house, we got just over 2 inches of rain from Harvey remnants.

I was remembering a miniseries done back in 1993 called The Fire Next Time. It starred (and don't let this discourage you) Craig T. Nelson, of the-government-never-helped-me-when-I-was-on-welfare fame, Bonnie Bedelia (whose performance at the time was overlooked in favor of her recent boob-job), and Richard Farnsworth among others.

It was set in the future, 2017 to be specific, when a Cajun family from the NOLA area is forced out of their home due to a catastrophic hurricane. It details their (imagined) refugee struggles as they attempt to head north into a more habitable area.

A critique at the bottom of the IMDB page pleads, "Please release this video or show again on TV. . . . I don't believe it was far wrong. . . .." I doubt that TPTB would want such a thing. It isn't on Netflix but it is on YouTube. It didn't get everything right, but it should have made people really think about the future, yet here we are.

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"The object of persecution is persecution. The object of torture is torture. The object of power is power. Now do you begin to understand me?" ~Orwell, "1984"

Submitted by snoopydawg on Sun, 09/03/2017 - 12:04pm

Small taste of economic and health problems related to

climate change. As eyo stated, there are fires in California, yet there are also huge fires in Montana, Oregon, Utah and other states in the western US. These fires are causing severe air alerts in states from Washington to Colorado.

On top of the bad air, many businesses have had to shut down because their town has been ordered to evacuate or people are staying home in case they are told to.
Most of the west had an unusual amount of rain and snowfall that finally ended the drought in both California and Utah, and probably the other states. This resulted in more fuel growing during the spring that is now being added to the fires.

Ogden, UT is known for its beautiful sunsets over the Great Salt Lake. But for over a month, the sunsets over the lake are not visible because of the amount of smoke in the air. The sun turn red for about 2 hours before it sets and our air quality runs from moderately unhealthy to extremely unhealthy. Many days I am unable to see the western mountains on the on the other side of the lake because of the smoke.

Yosemite is once again experiencing fires. The Wawona (?) fire is threatening Sequoia Groves where the trees are over 2,700 years old. There is an historic lodge in Wawona that is being threatened too.

Glacier Park has a few fires and it has lost one of its oldest historic lodges that people who were backpacking stayed at.

All these fires on top of recording breaking heat records across the west. Utah broke records again last week and this week too.
San Francisco is also breaking heat records and what makes this more difficult is that not many people or businesses have air conditioning. San Francisco's summers are usually foggy, damp and very cold.
I lived in the Central Valley and it wouldn't be unusual if the temperature was 110 at 6pm at the end of September. It too has been breaking heat records and the electrical grid can't handle it. It's one thing to have rolling brownouts because Enron is playing games with people's live in order to make more money, it's another when the electrical grid can not handle the load.

Now add in what is happening is Texas and Louisiana with the refineries off line for who knows how long and we will see gas prices rise, especially on the East Coast.

This article from SF Gate shows the big city's air quality. Just a small preview of ACC.
Headaches and raspy voices as wildfire smoke chokes US West

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The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated communist, but people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists.
~Hannah Arendt

Submitted by snoopydawg on Sun, 09/03/2017 - 12:22pm

The fires burning across the west

Here are are some of the fires burning across the west and the record breaking temps.

Wildfires surge amid scorching heat across US West

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Submitted by WoodsDweller on Sun, 09/03/2017 - 9:47pm

Sunday Update

Wunderground

Hurricane Irma is on a track that could bring it near the Leeward Islands by Wednesday and into the Eastern Bahamas by Friday ... Irma is expected to be a powerhouse Category 4 hurricane by that point, so high winds, huge surf, and torrential rains could occur well away from its center. It appears increasingly likely that Irma’s wrath will be focused on parts of The Bahamas late next week, and a major hurricane landfall along the U.S. East Coast is a distinct possibility by Sunday or Monday. ... The first Hurricane Hunter flight into Irma, which was in progress Sunday evening, found a dropsonde-measured surface pressure of 961 millibars and a remotely-estimated pressure of 958 mb ...
Several computer models have been confronting meteorologists with some eye-opening intensity forecasts for Hurricane Irma, especially for the period around next weekend, when Irma is currently predicted to be arcing northwest from the Eastern Bahamas. We cannot rule out the chance that Irma will reach Category 5 strength, but we can safely discount some of the most extreme model-generated intensities. ... A better guide to how strong Irma might get is the European global model and the HWRF regional hurricane model, which extends out to 126 hours (just over five days). The HWRF, in particular, has proven to be our most reliable model-based intensity guidance in recent years. The 0Z and 12Z Sunday operational runs of the European model deepen Irma to the 920-930 mb range, and the 0Z, 6Z, and 12Z runs of the HWRF show similar intensities. Even these less-extreme numbers are nothing to sneeze at: they suggest Irma will be a very formidable hurricane. ...
For historical context, the lowest hurricane-related pressure ever measured at the surface north of the Caribbean and east of Florida is 921 mb in the Bahamas Hurricane of 1932. ...
there has been some convergence of two of our best long-range track models, the GFS and European models, toward a possible landfall in or near the Carolinas around Monday ... the European model takes Irma out to sea before a U.S. landfall—another sign that it is way too soon to predict Irma’s track beyond late this week with any confidence.

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"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." -- Albert Bartlett
"A species that is hurtling toward extinction has no business promoting slow incremental change." -- Caitlin Johnstone

Submitted by WoodsDweller on Mon, 09/04/2017 - 3:15pm

Monday Update

Note that yesterday the models had Irma running up the East Cost, now they show it heading for the Florida Keys. Still too early to tell.

Wunderground

Dangerous Hurricane Irma was intensifying as it approached the northern Lesser Antilles Islands on Monday morning ... Irma’s central pressure was steadily dropping Monday morning, reaching 944 mb at 11 am EDT. Irma's top sustained winds are estimated at 120 mph, and winds may not yet have fully responded to this pressure drop. Irma is very likely to be a major Category 3 or 4 hurricane when it passes very close to the northern Lesser Antilles Islands on Tuesday, near Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands on Wednesday, and the Turks and Caicos Islands and Hispaniola on Thursday. Hurricane Warnings are now in effect for the northern Leeward Islands, and Hurricane Watches are up for the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.
...
An evacuation decision for the Florida Keys may have to come as early as Tuesday
...
For the next five days, wind shear is predicted by SHIPS to remain very favorable for development—a low to moderate 5 - 15 knots. SSTs will be very warm, 29 - 30°C (84 - 86°F), accompanied by a high ocean heat content capable of fueling rapid intensification.
...
Computer model guidance on Irma’s future track made an important westward shift on Sunday night. Virtually all models ... took Irma further west than prior model runs before an expected sharp turn to the north. This shift increases the chance that Irma will directly affect Hispaniola and especially Cuba ... also raises the odds for a U.S. landfall considerably, because Irma’s expected right turn toward the north would probably occur too late for Irma to miss the U.S. East Coast entirely.
...
Irma is still four days from any potential direct U.S. impacts, so there is plenty of time for residents along the East Coast and eastern Gulf Coast to make any standard preparations for hurricane season that haven’t yet been squared away.
...
There is an increasing chance that Irma will strike the U.S. late in the weekend or early next week, quite possibly as a major hurricane. It is still too soon to predict the location or timing of any U.S. landfall with confidence.

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