Ireland and Europe's Viral Outlook - what does the Latest Data say?

Submitted by out of left field on Sat, 10/10/2020 - 7:52pm

This is a video by Ivor Cummins, which takes a look at what is happening, and what is likely to happen with Covid19 as winter sets in, in Ireland and Europe (with occasional glances at the U.S.).

The great virtue of Ivor's work, in my opinion, is how he is able to do a scientific analysis of the pandemic without ever lapsing into opaque citations or eye-glazing exposition. The man has a genius for getting right to the point, and if you pay attention, you will learn much about epidemiology as applied to the current situation. This video is about 30 minutes, but is well worth the time if you care about the issues raised by the pandemic at all.

[video:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gJq8MBgYJ4Q width:640 height:360]

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Covid19 Ireland pandemic Ivor Cummins
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Submitted by fire with fire on Sun, 10/11/2020 - 10:44am

Obviously, this guy is connected to Trump.

Obviously, this guy knows nothing about real science.

Obviously, this guy is being paid by interests that would rather kill people than lose profit.

Obviously, this guy does not understand his own data which shows the absolute need for lockdown.

Since nobody from Team Lockdown has chimed in yet, I thought I would move the discussion along its inevitable path.

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Submitted by Lookout on Sun, 10/11/2020 - 11:18am
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@fire with fire

His talent is looking a big data. Though I find him cavalier about masks I have learned lots of nutrition from him.

He is self-funded through patreon, so corporate links and Trumpism are not valid criticisms as he lives and works in Ireland. Now you want to go after his ideas on disease curves and population dynamics...that might be valid.

The nature of science is to debate best evidence not to slam people for their ideas.

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“Until justice rolls down like water and righteousness like a mighty stream.”

Submitted by fire with fire on Sun, 10/11/2020 - 11:21am

@Lookout
I was being sarcastic.

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Submitted by Lookout on Sun, 10/11/2020 - 11:36am
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@fire with fire

People are so firm in their opinions on COVID it is difficult to tell snark from outcry lately. Glad you recognize Ivor as sincere.

I never fully agree with everything someone else proclaims, but like to try to find something worthwhile in everyone.

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Submitted by out of left field on Sun, 10/11/2020 - 12:50pm

@fire with fire You had me for a moment... Smile

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Submitted by fire with fire on Sun, 10/11/2020 - 1:55pm

@out of left field .

There is an old show business saying: "Satire is what closes out of town." Since I am not in show business, I don't worry about selling tickets and I can afford to amuse myself rather than the audience. I gave a hint with the closing sentence reference to "Team Lockdown," but the raw edge of this issue renders attempts at humor to be close to impossible.

All that said, I am pleased to see that my preposterously shallow, smug and content-free post successfully passed as a serious message from Team Lockdown. Point made.

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Submitted by Fishtroller 02 on Sun, 10/11/2020 - 11:10am

Some of the studies pointed to have not been peer reviewed.

The relationship between humidity and covid transmission has been looked at in several countries, but the connection hasn't been quite established.

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Submitted by Lookout on Sun, 10/11/2020 - 11:30am
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@Fishtroller 02

Increased relative humidity was associated with decreased cases in both epidemic phases, and a consistent negative relationship was found between relative humidity and cases. Overall, a decrease in relative humidity of 1% was associated with an increase in cases of 7–8%. Overall, we found no relationship with between cases and temperature, rainfall or wind speed. Information generated in this study confirms humidity as a driver of SARS‐CoV‐2 transmission.

https://www.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/tbed.13766

This may be the study you're refering to, but the NIH republished it.
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32750215/

John Campbell explains
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vdUPYyiGu-E
Effects of humidity

Cold air holds less moisture
Warm air holds more moisture
Muggy summers and crisp winters
Exhaled droplets become smaller in dry air when they have less moisture to become enveloped in
Smaller infectious aerosols can stay suspended in the air for longer
In humid air the aerosols are larger and heavier, so they fall out of the air
Indoor heating dries things further through evaporation
Indoor aircon also reduces humidity
Climatic and behavioural factors could influence the evolution of the current COVID‐19 pandemic

Trying to be informative not argumentative.

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Submitted by out of left field on Sun, 10/11/2020 - 12:48pm

@Lookout I was aware of the humidity factor, but you've done a good job of explaining why it works the way it does.

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Submitted by enhydra lutris on Sun, 10/11/2020 - 1:04pm
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@Lookout

I've sort of got two things in mind, Cuba, of course, other south america, hawaii, southeast asia, india. Is it worth trying to look at what's there or not?

Being from CA, I interpret humidity a bit more loosely than possibly most, but FL, LA,GA, MS, and that whole SE US region?

And what are we talking about here as to humidity - summer in MN or IA, or Belize rainforests in the wet season?

be well and have a good one

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Submitted by Lookout on Sun, 10/11/2020 - 2:02pm
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@enhydra lutris This is interesting

[video:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZpF7EIkgiZY&t=3m30s]

Here's a screen shot for brevity.
Blue are cases, red is deaths (on different scales)
tropical vs temperate.png

They make a seasonal argument. But to me the most interesting thing was the discussions of glycans. This scientist claims studying this virus without examining the effect of glycans is like studying a bird without its feathers. Something new to me anyway.

Now, researchers reporting in ACS Central Science have uncovered an active role for glycans -- sugar molecules that can decorate proteins -- in this process, suggesting targets for vaccines and therapies.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/09/200923090426.htm

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Submitted by enhydra lutris on Sun, 10/11/2020 - 3:19pm
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@Lookout

before, maybe via some UC newsletter since UCSD is looking into them. I recall some other ailment where they tried or succeeded in going after the attached sugars instead of the target, it may be a more general approach than they've been aware of.

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Submitted by out of left field on Mon, 10/12/2020 - 11:22am

@Lookout Yes, the charts shown do correspond to the seasonal argument--note that the countries in the southern hemisphere have had their death peaks during their winter, which is during our summer. It is also notable that in the northern hemisphere, we had a very sharp pandemic peak in March-April, which is normally the downslope of our viral infection season. According to Denis Rancourt, it is unusual--in fact, unheard of--to have an epidemic peak at that time of year in the northern hemisphere. Here is the summary of an article he co-authored:

We analyzed historic and recent all-cause mortality data for France, and other
jurisdictions for comparison, using model fitting to quantify winter-burden deaths, and
deaths from exceptional events. In this way, COVID-19 is put in historic perspective. We
prove that the “COVID-peak” feature that is present in the all-cause mortality data of
certain mid-latitude Northern hemisphere jurisdictions, including France, cannot be a
natural epidemiological event occurring in the absence of a large non-pathogenic
perturbation. We are certain that this “COVID-peak” is artificial because it:

i. occurs sharply (one-month width) at an unprecedented location in the
seasonal cycle of all-cause mortality (centered at the end of March),
ii. is absent in many jurisdictions (34 of the USA States have no “COVID-peak”),
and
iii. varies widely in magnitude from jurisdiction to jurisdiction in which it occurs.

We suggest that:
• the unprecedented strict mass quarantine and isolation of both sick and healthy
elderly people, together and separately, killed many of them,
• that this quarantine and isolation is the cause of the “COVID-peak” event that we
have quantified,
• and that the medical mechanism is mainly via psychological stress and social
isolation of individuals with health vulnerabilities.

According to our calculations, this caused some 30.2 K deaths in France in March and
April 2020. However, even including the “COVID-peak”, the 2019-2020 winter-burden
all-cause mortality is not statistically larger than usual. Therefore SARS-CoV-2 is not an
unusually virulent viral respiratory disease pathogen. By analyzing the all-cause
mortality data from 1946 to 2020, we also identified a large and steady increase in all-
cause mortality that began in approximately 2008, which is too large to be explained by
population growth in the relevant age structure, and which may be related to the
economic crash of 2008 and its long-term societal consequences.

Link: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/343775235_Evaluation_of_the_vir...

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Submitted by Fishtroller 02 on Mon, 10/12/2020 - 7:35am

@Lookout

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